Basterd Mini Mafia

On June 30 2013 13:10 WaveofShadow wrote:

lol Rayn you're still a cutie.
For whoever it was that said they didn't like Rayn's play, I am altogether unconcerned atm. This is how Rayn plays, he tunnels and asks shitloads of questions. When marv shows up he'll likely have some long interaction with him, marv might call him dumb about something, then he'll switch tracks. We'll wait and see.

In other news, Vayne holy shit. Is that D1 analysis??

On June 30 2013 13:26 WaveofShadow wrote:

Oh wait you just reminded me I was supposed to policy lynch you this game!
Except now you're acting differently than usual.
Which makes me want to lynch you.
Wat do?

On June 30 2013 14:12 WaveofShadow wrote:

I've said it before and I'll say it again.
Wat.

On June 30 2013 19:42 Lazermonkey wrote:
SUP.

Didn't know there was a voting thread -.- I guess you learn something new everyday!

Is Vayne a lynch bait or something? Makes a post about why I am scummy for several bad reasons. Then what? nothing... He makes 4 addiotional posts but doesn't follow up at all. Thhese posts are just general BS about why we shouldn't policy lynch him and that gumshoe is town because
Pretty suspicious of him calling me out for not wanting to scum hunt, yet he doesn't follow up his own suspicions a singel bit. Why doesn't he try to convince others that I am suspicious rather than defend himself when he is in no danger of dying?

On June 30 2013 20:34 WaveofShadow wrote:


The first two sentences in your second paragraph are contradictory. The rest of it is WIFOM.
My point was that whether he is lynchbait or not, I won't be using that to determine whether or not he is worthy of being lynched and I don't feel that attempting to determine as such one way or the other is a particularly towny thing to do.

Now as far as his post:

This is completely antithetic to what Vayne's play has consisted of so far on TL. I can't make heads or tails from it because this is more character/post analysis than he normally does D1 and as well he promises to contribute more. If you want to treat this simply as is, ignore his meta and say it's scummy because of no followup then that's your prerogative but I'd like to see more from him before making a call. If I were to ignore his meta and look strictly at this post I probably wouldn't like it either, especially the '6th post' comment which I'd like him to expand upon eventually.

For what it's worth, the towniest he has ever played thus far in my opinion was his scum game.

On June 30 2013 07:25 Lazermonkey wrote:
Regarding the the possibilties of there being two millers in the setup.

First off, I'm going to make the assumption that there are only three scum in this game. Secondly, looking at the roles in possible for scum you can see that the only one power role in our beloved friend Adolf "the roleblocker." Hitler. Now, assuming there is only 1 Hitler (which I don't think is a very bold assumption) the most powerfull scum team is in theory goon x2 + GF, a relativly weak team. Having two millers vs this team, even without additional blue roles, honestly seems kinda OP as you would either get into a postion with 2 modconfirmed townies D1 or a group of 3 people where you know for sure that one is scum. So, once again assuming (-.-)that the game is fairly balanced I don't think there are two millers.

And the conclusion you should draw from this is that Marvs claim probably means he is town.

On July 01 2013 03:58 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Oats, i made a same mistake you are doing here tunneling me. I looked Stutters' post only from scum perspective and i have now second thoughts about it because of what you said.

I think WoS is scum for what i have said. After that he has only posted some wishyt-washy things about me and Vayne. He says "Oats might be right" but then again "rayn gets a slight town read from what he did". He is avoiding to take sides in the argument. Look at his posts about Vayne; Big walls of text that basically says "i don't know what to make out of it". He does not want to vote for Stutters because "the wagon formed so quickly it bothers him" when there is no wagon but then he actually votes for Stutters??? Also the post is more like "i'll park my vote here" rather than "i think Stutters is mafia". Like: "Until the rest of the thread shows up or something scummier happens, (or maybe if Stutters explains himself a little/talks some more?)". wtf is this? After his vote he does never question Stutters or try to push the lynch, he is just chatting with Oats without making up his mind about anything in the game. He is not trying find mafia rather than just blending in.

I'll look into other people more tonight. I think marv, Vivax and Oats are town, Stutters' posting style and explanations feel genuine and i'm slightly leaning town on him.

I gotta relook into Lazer, i can't understand Vayne, he'd be a good cop target after copping marv. Nobody else i remember nothing about at this point.

On July 01 2013 07:00 mkfuba07 wrote:
Oh wow. I wake up and there's over 100 more posts. Apologies in advance for the giant post. A lot has happened. Some stream of consciousness thoughts as I catch up:

Vayne entering the thread with thread analysis on D1 was as surprising for me as it appears it was for WoS XD I don't see the scumminess from Lazer's 6th post (Is it this one? "Marv, which game were you fake claiming miller?"), so could you explain it Vayne?

Oats's vote on rayn was interesting, because I didn't think of rayn's actions from that persepective. The thing is, though, rayn had thought the situation through. The way oats presents it is as though rayn simply saw marv claim miller, and accepted it as true. Then went on to buddy him. This is clearly not what happened.

s0Lstice's first post was interesting (I'm gonna end up saying "interesting" a lot. Too tired at the moment to not be repetitive). First of all, I don't see how that progression indicates Stutters as scum. I found him most suspicious for the aggression so early, not that his reasoning was flawed regarding scum and millers. It's also pretty weird that s0L says Lazer is suspicious for spending so much time thinking about the miller claim when he just gave a town read to rayn, who has apparently spent just as much time doing so. s0L did mention Vivax, who I failed to comment on earlier. The passive shit flinging is something I'd missed, but it seems legit. Why even mention marv being less active so far when he mentioned little more than an hour before that he was going to be pretty inactive for a while? The self-conscious bit I pretty much ignored, since I'm that way every time I post, but I'm keeping the first point in mind.

Vivax's first post after returning actually had a really good point in it. Not that what marv did was scummy, but that the miller claim definitely can't be taken as a town tell now. Rayn followed that post with this: "No it's not. Fakeclaiming miller 5min into the game is dumb and unnecessary as scum and if someone was dumb enough to fakeclaim after marv we had a 50% chance to right out catch them by having them post the role PM first." I'm starting to see what oats was getting at, now. Rayn seems incapable of believing marv is scum, even though it's been shown that the claim is unreliable. Like, in that quote, while admitting the possibility of a fakeclaim, he refuses to believe it could be marv lying.

Lazermonkey: My experience with Vayne is that I can't read him for shit. Well, I mean, I guess I kind of could early on in Roulette, when I found he had "scum potential, but was not necessarily scummy". I'd definitely trust WoS's analysis of Vayne's scum play, especially if Vayne doesn't contest it himself (unless they're both scum... so take that with a grain of salt).

Vivax: "I'm really curious to see which name marv will claim." Why will that actually matter at this point?

Caught up~~

Man, you guys post a lot.

So, current thoughts. Oats is acting almost exactly like he was as town in Roulette. The difference is his approach to pushing his lynch, which seems more persuasive, as opposed to commanding. I think he mentioned at the end of Roulette that he was going to work on that, and his play this game is consistent with that. He's probably my strongest townread at the moment.

Vayne hasn't actually said all that much. I appreciated his first post, then he kind of disappeared. Not much to say. Would still like to know what's so scummy about that Lazer post.

Stutters: Not entirely sure what to think. His explanation for the aggression is pretty much a null tell. He does seem to be posting more than I remember, but the content is mostly defending himself. He also says we should discuss other players, but doesn't suggest any himself. Still very "vayne from roulette"-y for me.

Vivax: I like what he's said about rayn, wasn't impressed by marv's supposed scumminess for not posting his full role PM. That assumes that town marv would have naturally posted his role PM when claiming miller, something that I don't think is a natural inclination. The fact that he went into Carnival Cruise and found evidence of rayn's previous reactions to miller claims gives him some townie points. Overall, slight town, though he's apparently thinking about marv a lot, which I find strange given that marv hasn't really been here at all.

marv: Come back to us, dear. ^^

rayn: After Vivax's marv post, I expected rayn to be less insistent on him being confirmed town. It would have been *much* easier for scum to fakeclaim miller in this situation than I thought, and I don't see how this isn't obvious from a town perspective. Add to that Vivax's case, where he points out that rayn accepts the existence of a miller at face value, and I'm pretty convinced. He's far too eager to accept the claim as truth, when it should now have little effect on the mind of a townie. My only reluctance to vote for him is his activity level, which I tend to associate with town.

##Vote: raynpelikoneet

Everyone else is gonna need a filter dive, and I'm going to have to reread the posts I read while writing this, but I feel comfortable with my vote where it is.

On July 02 2013 01:25 Vivax wrote:


What did you find fairly townie about lazer's posting?

On July 02 2013 01:36 Vivax wrote:


Lazer is a quite good scum player when it comes to looking active and townie. He should always be kept under good scrutiny.
Check Noir Mini Mafia.

I have that Deutsch feeling about him too.
Fine explanation from you so far, but I have issues with your activity, I am used to you being more constantly in the thread.

On July 02 2013 05:00 Lazermonkey wrote:
Vayne looks bad. Sad that he is a lynch bait but I'm kinda OK with killing him. I don't understand at all his reasoning for voting me. First I'm scum then town, then I'm town, then I'm null, then scum again. And that's right when the wagon on me is about to start

On July 02 2013 07:12 marvellosity wrote:


this makes it all worthwhile, rofl