Banner photos: ESL

Brackets and standings
via Liquipedia

by stuchiu and Waxangel

Ladies and gentlement, it's time. The first "Code S" of a region outside Korea, the WCS Europe Premier League, is approaching its grand finale. Seven of the best StarCraft II players in Europe, and one greatest player of all time, have gathered in Cologne to play out the final rounds of first WCS Europe season. Day one of the event features the quarter-final round, with four best-of-five series being played back to back. To the bracket!




DIMAGA vs. Empire|Happy - 11:00 GMT (+00:00)

The first quarter-final match features a battle between Russia and Ukraine. DIMAGA, one of the most well-known and successful foreigners throughout StarCraft II, faces Happy, a player who is finally starting to attract a lot of international attention through the WCS Europe tournament.

If you ask DIMAGA, he'd probably say his chances are not good. Talking to Aceresports after getting through his Ro16 group, the Ukrainian mentioned that he loses around 80% of his games to Happy on the ladder. Looking at Happy's TvZ games throughout this tournament, it's not hard to see why. He played the marine-mine-medivac style very effectively, using great micro and multitasking to put his opponents in uncomfortable situations where he can trade efficiently. It's the most "Korean" style of TvZ we've seen from all the players in the tournament, except maybe MMA (who's actually Korean).

You might think DIMAGA is exaggerating a little with that 80% number, considering he managed to get all the way here by beating two excellent players in ThorZaIN and Mvp. But on the other hand, both of them played considerably different styles from Happy. ThorZaIN went for hellbat drops and more hellbat drops, which DIMAGA predicted and countered by playing roach and roach-hydra styles. As for Mvp, he had KR-EU lag to deal with, and played a more slow, methodical style reminiscent of WoL, making big, lumbering pushes with large armies. Neither of them played with the kind of aggressive mindset Happy showed in WCS.

The other thing that leads us to believe that DIMAGA is in for a lot of trouble is that Happy has not lost a single TvZ series to a European in HotS tournaments. Alright, so the linked Aligulac.com database isn't 100% comprehensive, but it does manage to catch most tournaments of note, including online cups some people have never heard of. Happy has defeated every single European Zerg he has faced since he started playing HotS, and against DIMAGA specifically, he is 2 - 0 (3 - 0 on maps).

Prediction: There's no doubt that Happy is a TvZ beast, whether you're checking his gameplay or checking his stats. DIMAGA might have beat more methodical Terrans in Mvp and ThorZaIN, but he will have trouble here. Look for Happy to play a lot of reaper-hellion openers into the MMM style, and maybe a mech style on one of the maps. As for DIMAGA, it's hard to know what approach he'll take. He may very well try to pull a Symbol and prepare a ton of early-mid game all-ins, which could work out well if he masks them carefully. If he wants to play straight up then muta-ling-bane is probably the way to go, but it's doubtful that he'll get far trying to stand and trade blows.

Happy 3 - 1 DIMAGA


Liquid`TLO vs. LG-IM_Mvp - 12:45 GMT (+00:00)

Since the second half of 2012, TLO has really come into his own. After facing speedbumps early on in his career, including a race change and severe wrist injury, he has finally started to release that potential so many players saw in at the very beginning of StarCraft II. Often typecast as a 'creative' player, TLO seems to play his strongest in standard games where he mixes in bits of his own personal style that allows him to surprise and ambush his opponents.

In a lot of ways, TLO is becoming the 'gatekeeper' of Europe. You always consider him one of the stronger players and someone you expect to pass the group stages with ease. But once the going gets tough, the tough beat on TLO. He’s made numerous good results, often dominating the group stages and reaching the bracket phases. However he has never reached the top four of what we would call a major tournament.

For TLO this will be his best chance to make the final push and establish himself as a championship contender. He has only played TvZ in this tournament and has sharpened it into his strongest weapon cutting through some of the best Terrans EU has to offer: Kas, ForGG and Strelok. His play against Bio has been very strong and standard. His play against mech is perfectly Zerg-like, with tech switches from mutalisks to swarm hosts to drops to broodlords. That will serve him well as he plays against the exiled King of GSL, Mvp.

What more can be said about Mvp? He is the greatest, and most mysterious of all SC2 champions. Most champions have had hot streaks, winning all of their championships during a short period where they were just playing the best SC2 of their life. Mvp is not most champions. 1 year ago, everyone thought he was done. His era was over and it was time for the next generation.

And then he made the comeback. He took out his would-be pretenders and swept them aside to take his 4th GSL. And he did it with iron resolve, mind games and willpower. That is the type of champion MVP is. No matter how much his mechanics declined, he could defeat his opponents by just being smarter, more intimidating, and totally fearless in finals.

Prediction: This is a quote often said by players of that era in pre-game interviews before they got slaughtered by Mvp, “Oh Mvp is good. I mean he’s won the most titles, but there’s really nothing special about his macro or micro. I should win this 3-0, but maybe it’ll be 3-1. Cause he is Mvp.” Mvp has an ineffable quality to him that makes him wins games. And while those days seem long behind him, he showed he still has some of that left in him as he used star sense to kill SaSe. So while I think TLO will take this, anything can happen when Mvp is playing.

TLO 3 - 2 Mvp


K3.LucifroN vs. Mill.ForGG - 14:30 GMT (+00:00)

Sometimes people just get lucky. Just ask Socke, the one time champion of the only Coin Toss tournament ever run. Other people just have no such luck. Just ask Bischu, who got coin tossed out of a Dreamhack after playing only a few tiebreaks and then subsequently lost the coin toss tournament where he was seeded into the finals.

You could say Bischu was unlucky, but at least he's not Lucifron. The Spanish Terran spent the last year of WoL constantly eliminating or being eliminated by his brother VortiX. At Dreamhack, he got coin tossed out and hasn't even gotten a coin toss tournament as an apology. Now he’s drawn the one player in the tournament he believes to be the best Terran in Europe. Yup, he's up against ForGG, the Korean of France, the man with a 90% TvT winrate and who is just a few games away from causing ForGGeddon. In some ways this will almost be like a team kill. Both players frequently use ladder to practice and at the very top of the EU ladder stand the 3 IIIIIIIII Terrans: ForGG, Lucifron and Happy. Even just head-to-head Lucifron knows this will be hard as he admitted that ForGG beats him about 60:40.

Prediction: To Hellbat drop or not to Hellbat drop? While Lucifron is a big proponent of the Hellbats, ForGG opts to play anti-hellbat drop. But with the both players being so close to each other in skill and this just being a bo5, anything goes. If Lucifron can pull out another one-shot strategy like his proxy Thor rush against Happy, he could win this handily. If not, he should try to coerce Seltzer to come to the studio and give ForGG another one of her kisses of death. With so many hellbats, medivacs, and so much bad luck flying around, anything goes and this match is nearly impossible to predict. So I flipped a coin. Sorry Lucifron.

ForGG 3 - 2 Lucifron


EG.Stephano.RC vs. Na`Vi.BabyKnight - 16:15 GMT (+00:00)

The final Ro8 match is the only one that's a rematch from an earlier round. Back in the Ro32, BabyKnight defeated Stephano 2 - 0 to take the #1 spot in his group and advance to the Ro16. It looked like a straight-forward, impressive win for BabyKnight, who overwhelmed Stephano's swarm-host corruptor turtling on Akilon Wastes, and then crushed him with blink-stalkers on Daybreak. However, it wasn't without a little bit of controversy, as BabyKnight took issue with some perceived excuse-making from Stephano. Thankfully this is one of those rare occasions where we can actually settle a dispute in-game, with several thousands of dollars on the line ($3.5k+ to be more specific[/url]).

At first glance, things look pretty good for BabyKnight. He won convincingly in his earlier series against Stephano, in both long and short games, and was very good against VortiX in the Ro16 as well. The most striking thing about BabyKnight's PvZ's in WCS so far is that he seems to have a better sense than his peers about how to put together efficient compositions, with just enough of each unit he needs to defeat whatever his opponent happens to have assembled. He also has a good repertoire of timing attacks, including some of the gate-first builds that are vexing Zerg players everywhere.

Stephano's preferred HotS ZvP style is the remarkably boring swarm-host turtling. You can't blame Zergs for using it, given how effective it's proven to be, but you get the feeling it's headed in the direction of brood lord-infestor. While it was good enough to chip Grubby and Feast to death, BabyKnight showed he could deal with the composition much more efficiently in their one meeting. Also, Stephano is showing a lot more weakness than before to early game attacks. He's still generally good on defense, but he's not totally bullet-proof like he was against the all-ins of the WoL era.

Prediction: Overall, it looks like BabyKnight has all the weapons to defeat a diminished Stephano. However, we just can't predict against Stephano until he conclusively shows he's lost it. Yeah, he's fallen from his peak where he ruled Europe with an iron fist, but even Stephano at 75% of his prime would be a contender on the continent.

In a strange way, Stephano's 2013 is like Mvp's 2012. He's much diminished from his prime where he crushed all comers, but he still commands a lot of respect. Even if his gameplay is weaker, you believe he has the confidence, experience, and mental strength to make it through. Stephano until proven otherwise.

Stephano 3 - 2 BabyKnight

Writers: stuchiu and Waxangel.
Photos: ESL and Jiuguang Wang.
Editor: Waxangel.