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Normal Mini Mafia IV

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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1 2 3 4 5 14 15 16 Next All
Djodref
Profile Joined September 2012
France3332 Posts
January 22 2013 12:32 GMT
#49
/replacement

I don't want to play two games at once, but I'm seriously tempted ^^
I like the setup already but we need moar information on it !
Djodref
Profile Joined September 2012
France3332 Posts
January 23 2013 01:36 GMT
#59
TL Mafia LIX is over for me.
No more replacement, I want /in
Djodref
Profile Joined September 2012
France3332 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-01-23 04:44:30
January 23 2013 02:40 GMT
#60
looks like I was inned already anyway ^^

wooo, player list is stacked ! I don't know Sharrant and the xscxsxscsck guy. Anyone could enlighten me ?
I hope syllo could join as well ^^

Honestly told, I don't want to roll mafia with such a roster
But I'll do my best anyway ! Also I just got killed day 1 as town so I'm really pumped ! I just hope it was a mafia shot >.<
Djodref
Profile Joined September 2012
France3332 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-01-23 10:47:30
January 23 2013 10:47 GMT
#68
Are the millers self aware ?

They should definitively claim right off the bat if they are self aware ^^
Djodref
Profile Joined September 2012
France3332 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-01-23 10:48:54
January 23 2013 10:48 GMT
#69
On January 23 2013 19:27 xsksc wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 23 2013 11:40 Djodref wrote:
wooo, player list is stacked ! I don't know Sharrant and the xscxsxscsck guy. Anyone could enlighten me ?

I'll be very surprised if I ever play in a game where my name isn't misspelled at least 50 times. ^_^
I played a bit from October '11 till last summer but I haven't played since then, too busy. D:


Okay, nice to meet you then. You can find all my previous game in my profile if you need to
And we should form a club of people whose name is getting misspelled
Djodref
Profile Joined September 2012
France3332 Posts
January 23 2013 10:56 GMT
#71
On January 23 2013 19:49 thrawn2112 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 23 2013 19:47 Djodref wrote:
Are the millers self aware ?

They should definitively claim right off the bat if they are self aware ^^


what about non self aware millers


They should claim as well, but miller are usually aware in C9++ setups. They are supposed to be soft blue roles
Djodref
Profile Joined September 2012
France3332 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-01-26 02:42:14
January 23 2013 16:49 GMT
#78
On January 24 2013 00:51 Toadesstern wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 23 2013 22:11 Oatsmaster wrote:
Lol I understand ICs now, but TL never uses ICs.
What are ICs exactly?

Show nested quote +
Town Innocent Child
At the start of Day 1, the moderator of the game will announce you as an Innocent Child, confirming you as town.


selfaware millers are somewhat like that in C9++ with the knowledge of the set-up, just that it's not modconfirmed and counter- and fakeclaimable.


I would like to add that the probability to have a miller in a classic C9++ game is roughly of 40%.
And there is never two millers, except if you run a weird, unorthodox, bad setup like marv and wbg do.
So fakeclaiming miller is quite risky for a mafia player ^^

Regarding miller claims, you should do the following imo:
  • Claim at the beginning of the game if you are miller
  • Counter claim if someone else claims miller when you are yourself a miller, because this guy is mafia at 100%, unless you made the mistake to join a game hosted by marv or wbg
Djodref
Profile Joined September 2012
France3332 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-01-23 17:59:55
January 23 2013 17:13 GMT
#81
Two millers are usually not possible, and you have one miller when you have exactly one M or exactly 3 Ms in the setup.


So, let's compute the probability to have exactly one M in the 7 letters defining the setup.

M has a probability of 1/10 to be rolled.
Let's have X for any letter not being M, and X has a probability of 9/10 to be rolled.

MXXXXXX
XMXXXXX
XXMXXXX
XXXMXXX Here you have all the setups with exactly one mason, each of them with a probability of (9/10)^6*(1/10)
XXXXMXX
XXXXXMX
XXXXXXM

There are 7 such setups like this. The final probability to have exactly one M is 7*(9/10)^6*(1/10)=0.3720087
The probability is so roughly of 37%


So then you should add the probability to have exactly 3 Ms in the 7 letters defining the setup.

You have (7*6*5)/(3*2) arrangements of 3 Ms into the 7 letters, that is 35 arrangements. Each arrangement has a probability of (9/10)^4*(1/10)^3
so the probability to have exactly 3 Ms is roughly of 2.3% ??


That should make a ~39.5% probability to have a miller in the classic C9++ setup I guess.

Djodref
Profile Joined September 2012
France3332 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-01-23 17:24:21
January 23 2013 17:17 GMT
#83
On January 24 2013 02:11 Dandel Ion wrote:
But it should be impossible to get 2 millers, right?
You can at least only ever get 1 IC afair.

Also when I (badly) mathed it, I got the (probably wrong) result of a 37.7% chance of getting a miller out of it.

NOT THAT IT MATTERS


You can have two millers, it's just incredibly improbable, and I guess that the host rolls the setup again in that case
You have then MMMMXXX or anything looking alike.

How did you get 37.7% ?
It's close to what I have but not exactly the same. I'm confused now.

Shit, I even think I got 37.7% when I computed it in Mario Mini...
Djodref
Profile Joined September 2012
France3332 Posts
January 23 2013 17:18 GMT
#85
On January 24 2013 02:17 Mocsta wrote:
Your wrong


Seriously ?
Don't troll me, I take this kind of things seriously, and I need to go to bed soon, I don't want to think that I could have made a mistake here.
Djodref
Profile Joined September 2012
France3332 Posts
January 23 2013 17:19 GMT
#86
On January 24 2013 02:18 Mocsta wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 24 2013 02:17 Mocsta wrote:
Your wrong

Wrong because

setup speculation is scum talk Djo (you know that personally!!)

and mason is a town role

!!!


You know, I was actually solving the game for them at that time ^^
Djodref
Profile Joined September 2012
France3332 Posts
January 23 2013 17:27 GMT
#88
On January 24 2013 02:20 Mocsta wrote:
If only I could have that type of wit in a live game


I think you should just follow my advice concerning self-aware masons in C9++ games
Then you'll be fine. Maybe you could check this page (clicky) to have an idea of how many blue roles are expected to be in the game given the mafia flips ^^
Djodref
Profile Joined September 2012
France3332 Posts
January 23 2013 17:33 GMT
#91
On January 24 2013 02:30 Dandel Ion wrote:
It's 37.7 because roughly 37% come from the single M, and a ~0.7% for the triple M. Can't remember exact values.

ICs happen with XXXXXXM and XXXXMMM setups, no others. There can only be one IC.
So unless there's a secret TL way of rolling c9 I'm not aware of, it should be impossible to roll two millers (ics)
afaik, afaik.


Oh, yeah, you are right. I didn't remember the setups correctly. Two millers is strictly impossible then, I'll edit my previous message ^^
Djodref
Profile Joined September 2012
France3332 Posts
January 23 2013 17:46 GMT
#93
On January 24 2013 02:39 marvellosity wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 24 2013 02:33 Djodref wrote:
On January 24 2013 02:30 Dandel Ion wrote:
It's 37.7 because roughly 37% come from the single M, and a ~0.7% for the triple M. Can't remember exact values.

ICs happen with XXXXXXM and XXXXMMM setups, no others. There can only be one IC.
So unless there's a secret TL way of rolling c9 I'm not aware of, it should be impossible to roll two millers (ics)
afaik, afaik.


Oh, yeah, you are right. I didn't remember the setups correctly. Two millers is strictly impossible then, I'll edit my previous message ^^


In the C9 modified setup me and bugs use, 2 millers is possible


Noooooooooooooooooo
Djodref
Profile Joined September 2012
France3332 Posts
January 23 2013 17:48 GMT
#95
On January 24 2013 02:30 Dandel Ion wrote:
It's 37.7 because roughly 37% come from the single M, and a ~0.7% for the triple M. Can't remember exact values.

ICs happen with XXXXXXM and XXXXMMM setups, no others. There can only be one IC.
So unless there's a secret TL way of rolling c9 I'm not aware of, it should be impossible to roll two millers (ics)
afaik, afaik.


You sure you get 0.7% for the triple M ?
Djodref
Profile Joined September 2012
France3332 Posts
January 23 2013 17:52 GMT
#98
On January 24 2013 02:49 marvellosity wrote:
this is why it's terrible to speculate on setup when it's already known in OP it's altered. you can't presume to know about the makeup of blues/mafia/SK unless you know exactly what it's based on (see rock band where i clarified multiple times to be sure)

the only thing you can get is general ideas. more goons = less blues, etc. and there's likely to always be a roleblocker.


That's why I really like Keir games, at least you know exactly how the setup has been rolled.
Djodref
Profile Joined September 2012
France3332 Posts
January 23 2013 17:53 GMT
#99
On January 24 2013 02:52 Dandel Ion wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 24 2013 02:48 Djodref wrote:
On January 24 2013 02:30 Dandel Ion wrote:
It's 37.7 because roughly 37% come from the single M, and a ~0.7% for the triple M. Can't remember exact values.

ICs happen with XXXXXXM and XXXXMMM setups, no others. There can only be one IC.
So unless there's a secret TL way of rolling c9 I'm not aware of, it should be impossible to roll two millers (ics)
afaik, afaik.


You sure you get 0.7% for the triple M ?

no not at all


Could you review my precedent post ? I've edited it and I got ~2.3% for the triple M.
Djodref
Profile Joined September 2012
France3332 Posts
January 23 2013 18:01 GMT
#102
On January 24 2013 02:58 Dandel Ion wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 24 2013 02:53 Djodref wrote:
On January 24 2013 02:52 Dandel Ion wrote:
On January 24 2013 02:48 Djodref wrote:
On January 24 2013 02:30 Dandel Ion wrote:
It's 37.7 because roughly 37% come from the single M, and a ~0.7% for the triple M. Can't remember exact values.

ICs happen with XXXXXXM and XXXXMMM setups, no others. There can only be one IC.
So unless there's a secret TL way of rolling c9 I'm not aware of, it should be impossible to roll two millers (ics)
afaik, afaik.


You sure you get 0.7% for the triple M ?

no not at all


Could you review my precedent post ? I've edited it and I got ~2.3% for the triple M.

no I hate math. It's the work of the devil.

It also doesn't matter. At all.


Come on ! You are going to know exactly the risk you are going to take the next time you would like to claim miller as mafia in a C9++ game !
Djodref
Profile Joined September 2012
France3332 Posts
January 24 2013 06:15 GMT
#119
Hey Emile !

T'es vraiment francais ?
If you are a new player, it might not be the best game to register into...
Djodref
Profile Joined September 2012
France3332 Posts
January 24 2013 15:14 GMT
#128
I'm a sad panda
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