Going to go through the thread and make some notes. I'll post my thoughts in a few hours.
Newbie Mini Mafia XIX
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
Going to go through the thread and make some notes. I'll post my thoughts in a few hours. | ||
Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
I will do my best to alleviate suspicions on myself. I just ask that people look for the merit in my posts, rather than being biased because you already have a read on something I had zero control over. I know that's hard to do, but I'll try to be as open as possible. Also: On July 04 2012 06:29 Promethelax wrote: Kiethwhateveri: teehee :D | ||
Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
I'll try to get something up before i go to bed tonight, but it might not be until tomorrow sometime. | ||
Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On July 04 2012 12:47 Hopeless1der wrote: Keirathi pretty much gets a pass until the nk since he just got here, though I really would like to see some reads before such a time. I'm concerned that there just isn't much to go on without stretching reads pretty thin on players who up till now have seemed like town. Hopefully, Keirathi is town and doesn't have any bias regarding our reads since he's starting with all the information we currently have instead of piecing together as we go along. I will definitely have my read/thoughts post up before the night ends. I definitely have gotten some reads, even just from d1, but it's a bit pointless to post it now until I get through everything. I have about a page full of notes currently, and I'm not quite to the end of D1 | ||
Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + Just a note: Let me start off by apologizing for the formatting. I'm just using notepad and letting my thoughts free flow as I go. I am noting things as I go through the thread sequentually. I'm attempting not to go back and change my notes when new information comes up, because I don't feel thats helpful. Posting my notes and reads as the points come up, rather than a cumulative "after-the-fact" gives a better insight into my thought process. The numbers beside people's names are the % chance I feel of them being Mafia (the higher the number, the more likely I feel they are Mafia). The %chance numbers are cumulative feedback. Note 2: I made the decision to ignore points relating to Fencar reads after the fact he asked to be modkilled. I feel like its pointless for me to speculate on that stuff when his role will be flipped soon, or we can take up the case again if he is replaced. Anacletus (Dead - Lynched) - Jailer Not really much to say here, he voted Fencer on a weak argument then abandoned defending his choice and himself when he started getting pressure. Can't really find much useful information here. Myles - 60 D1 - "I think getting people to talk is a good idea, and if a witch hunt is the only way to that than so be it. And I don't really have a better idea, so witch hunt it is I guess." -- Kinda Flip-Floppy. Not a lot of activity. When he gets called out on his activity levels, he dismisses it, then tries to switch the suspicion on even less active players, but keeps his vote on Fencar. Changes vote at the end of the day (new swing vote, after Jingle unvoted) to Anacletus just because of his inactivity. Defended Hopeless some. N1 - Accuses people of bandwagonning when he did that himself. Defended his defense of Hopeless. Points a lot of fingers at Fencer, almost certainly not scumteam together. D2 - Hasn't posted much useful stuff yet. Calls out some people for lurking. Announces a read on Prom and Umlaut as townies. Calls the Bob post relevent ("JH could have been killed so that he would shut up OR he so that we would be thrown off the trail of the real Scum. So it could be someone he said it was OR the opposite." [I talk about why this is a completely irrelevent post in my Bob section]). Still pushes towards an Intact lynch, with Fencar as a secondary. Jumps on the Intact wagon late (Maybe buying a way out if he gets called for the double bandwagon'ing? "I just didnt want a no-lynch so I went with my read that I already helped push votes to!"). N2 - Quite the outburst for killing a VT! Where was that passion when you killed the JK on D1? And you were on the votes for both of them. NrGmonk/sciberbia - 25 D1 - Pretty cautious, not much actual content. Nice post at the end of the day with a reasonable defense argument for Anacletus, but seems to be too late to sway votes. Gives a weak ("noob rather than scum") defense of Fencar. Attempts to switch lurker pressure off of himself onto Bob, and to a lesser extent Intact, Myles, and Blind (me now). Points some weak arguments towards Intact. N1 - Not replaced yet. D2 - Sciberbia posting now. His first post is mostly just fluff introductions. Starts off with the wrong idea: trying to make/break cases against people that already have established cases against them. This is confirmation bias. Its so easy to look through a filter of someone that everyone else already says is mafia and pick out little things that the person said and see what other people have said. That's why I made my notes like this. I'm going through making notes as I get to things, rather than unintentionally reading between the lines of things just because other peoples opinions have planted the seed into my subconcious. That said: your overall read on Intact was so spot on that its eerie. Why didn't anyone else see it? Do you have information that they didn't have? I totally agree with your read on BlinD, even though that's me now. Hopefully I can convince people otherwise :D FoS's on both Bob and BlinD, mostly for lurking. Hammers the Intact wagon solely to avoid a no-lynch when he doesn't think (or KNOWS?) that Intact is town. JingleHell (Dead - Night Killed) - Vanilla D1 - Suspected Umlaut early. Points a finger at Hopeless about the swing vote argument, and again later regarding the same topic. Eventually makes a large case against him, and ##Votes him. N1 - Made a case against Hopeless and got night killed. Either to fake a trail to Hopeless to get him lynched (which doesn't happen), or possibly in defense of him. Listed his potential suspects as Hopeless, Myles, and Fencer before he died. AmericanUmlaut - 30 D1 - Proposes new idea, but at the same time is an that could be seen to be scum-biased (Lynch all Liars). Supplies compelling argument against Myles and Monk, while keeping his vote on Anacletus, downplaying Fencar's play as just being bad and therefor ignorable. Points a finger at Prom for the Fencar switch as well. Probably not mafia if Prom is, and vice versa. Switches vote to Hopeless based on Jingle's argument, but still backs a Anacletus lynch over a no-lynch (Which goes against the JingleHell argument to begin with [willing to vote a less-scummy read just to get a kill]). JH Calls him out on this (second time he's FoSd Umlaut). N1 - Only contribution was a flimsy pro-town sentiment of "don't discuss reads at night because it increases your risk of being shot". Obviously understands making arguments, but doesn't. Seems to just be skating by. D2 - Comes out with a big post on lynching lurkers, with some reads on the people who are lurking. Makes a big post "contributing" to the Intact case, which obviously turns out bad, bust mostly reuses a lot of the same arguments Hopeless already made. Guess his 1/4 chance bit him in the ass (or not?). Defends accusations against Myles out of nowhere. Makes a very odd argument against Fencar after he asked the mod to be replaced. Weakly defends Bob while pointing a finger at Hopeless without really saying why. Wait WHAT - "Playing inactive is a less risky role than joining more actively in discussion, which leads me to believe that Intact is the most likely of the three to have an ability." ?!? Most likely to have a blue role? Then why would you want to lynch him? Comes around later to defend Hopeless and further pushes the Intact lynch without actually making more points (actually argues about sciberbia's reads in his INTACT IS THE BEST LYNCH paragraph, which I don't see how are relevent). Keeps his intact vote in place, while making points against Bob at the end of the day. Intact (Dead - Lynched) - Vanilla D1 - Picked up on the scummy Prom switch to Fencar and commented on it. No other real contributions. N1 - No contributions. D2 - Points some fingers back at Prom before he died, which influences the final votes to get him wagoned. BobeTheLob - 40 (but hard to really get a read on) D1 - Very, very little said, then jumps in on the Anacletus vote without giving any real justification. Only defends himself with "I'm new" and still doesn't post content. Somehow argues that he's actually contributing, when its clear that he hasnt. N1 - Posted a list of reads that had very little in the way of actual reads (Lots of "I don't knows" and piggybacking on other arguments). Despite this, he feels like a newbie town rather than a scum at this point. D2 - "JH could have been killed so that he would shut up OR he so that we would be thrown off the trail of the real Scum. So it could be someone he said it was OR the opposite." This is the most useless thing said yet. He basically said "With JH dead, it could be anyone!" Obvious, and useless fluff. Can't really be posting fluff on D2. Comes out of the woodworks with a weak defense to sciberbias FoS, still giving no reads. Again, quickly to his own self defense when Perfection agrees with sciberbia's reads. Really convenient that he's around when he's getting pressure, and apologizing for his previous lurking. Dismisses all previous cases as guesswork and assumption. Mentions that people should look at Hopeless (but doesn't actually make arguments for himself). iamperfection - 30 D1 - Extremely non-commital and uncooperative early. Restarts the Anacletus vote train rolling after people started making cases against Fencar. Doesn't make many reads, other than accosting Bob after an admittedly useless post. N1 - Comes out of nowhere with some pro-town sentiment to use more logic, but I don't really think this helps his case much because he hasn't been posting enough and he was in on the lynch vote. He seems to have a decent understanding of the game in his posts, but is still coasting by with the absolute minimum amount of posting/cooperation. D2 - Tries to defuse the Fencer vote on Hopeless by asking for Intact to respond to suspicions against himself? Defends Hopeless's case against Intact. Posts late in the day to defend BlinD (now me) against sciberbia's case. In the same post, agrees with sciberbia's accusation of Bob having wishy-washy reads, but still doesn't give reads of his own. Promethelax - 75 Early D1 - Big anti-Anacletus sentiment, possibly scummy. Hard changes to Fencar after the Anacletus vote gains steam, albeit with a fairly well reasoned out post. Possible escape mechanism? Decent chance that he isn't mafia if Fencar is, and vice versa. "I'm 99% sure that if Anacletus flips town Fencer is scum." We'll see if he follows up with that in D2. Their (Fencar and Anacletus) posting hasn't targetted each other much at all (Fencar has been defending himself mostly, and Anacletus just not posting much), despite voting each other, so this sentiment doesn't make much sense. Biggest scum read so far, as its an easy thing to bring up in D2 after Anacletus flips town and base an argument around. Swing-votes to Anacletus despite the fact that he says Fencar is scummier. Uses some early Anacletus posts to say that hes FoS'ing Fencar, when he had been lobbying hard for him earlier anyways. N1 - Tries to cooperate with JH, who almost unanimously has been a town read. Escape plan for when JH is shot tonight, while perpetuating the Hopeless bus tomorrow? Tons of pressure towards Hopeless, lets see how its followed up tommorrow. If he keeps up a lot of pressure, one of them is probably mafia, but almost definitely not both. Still feels scummy that he completely forgets his "99% sure of scum if Anacletus flips town" argument on Fencer. More evidence of a possible escape plan later ("I have trouble seeing why after I flipped green or you flipped green anyone would lynch the other one."). Easy to see why a night kill of JH would make sense if he was mafia. Still my strongest scum read at this point. Makes some compelling arguments against Myles, which could definitely get Myles lynched. Almost certainly not scumteam with him. However in the post against Myles, he said "You'll see in the above post two soft defenses of town players (JH and Anacletus)," Possible scum slip? He has said previously that he believes JH to be town, but this specific line seems to say that he 100% knows that JH is town. Just more evidence for the escape plan when JH is night killed, IMO. D2 - Ugh, useless drunk posting. Immediately jumps on Fencar for the post of other people's reads, although makes some really silly points in it. Addresses his D1 cases against Fencar, still without mentioning the "99% sure" part (he quotes other posts he made against Fencar, but not that one). Same post: "The three people that JH was looking at as scum before he died were Hopeless, Fencar and Myles...The one I am most sure of is Fencar[...]" Lets see how much conviction you have with it this time, and how much you push it if you are so sure. Makes an interesting observation that he would have investigated Umlaut if he was DT night1, but says he trusts that he's town now. Now that Fencar is out (who he still claims was his biggest read, despite not voting for him), he shifts his attention to Intact, who had the largest number of cases against him, as well as a case by Umlat whom he says he trusts as town now. Probably the start of the bandwagon, here. Further propogates the Intact lynch again, without adding much other than saying he didn't buy Intact's explanation of his internet working. Something else about him thats bothering me at this point: almost every post is something like "I'm Townie! Look how townie I am! Some other townie come help me make cases!" I feel like he's trying to hard to convince everyone that he's town, and he's getting away with it just because of JH. Fencar - (Honestly no idea. His play was so boggling and he just gave up.) D1 - "For better or for worse, my views are the same as Umlaut's. I can't really add anything. :\" Extremely bad stance for a town to take early in d1. He says its because he's new. He gives no new input or ideas, just relays things other people have said, and follows votes around. Constanly uses being a newbie as a defense after some attention switches to him, but it's a somewhat believable defense. Then uses the mafia guide to defend himself??? Gradually feeling less and less like scum, and just a new townie trying to figure out the proper way to post. Then actually encourages the vote on Anacletus with a "bandwagon him or me" post. Really hard to get a read on this guy because hes all over the place. Now he really throws me for a loop, with a thorough (albeit flimsy) defense of Prom, who has hard accused him all game and had no incoming pressure. N1 - Where has he been? D2 - Out of nowhere he says "It looks like JingeHell was killed for being intelligent, rather than being specifically suspicious of anyone." JH was suspicious (and posted his suspect list) of multiple people, so it doesn't make any sense at all. 4 posts later, he starts the ball rolling by FoS'ing Intact, then says "I think the dead men got their votes right" and adds Hopeless to his FoS list as well. I thought you just said it looked like JH was killed because of his intelligence, rather than being suspicious of anyone? Make up your mind. Immediately makes a new post and votes Hopeless entirely based on Prom's post against him, without adding any justification for why he agreed with it. Lays out a nice post of reads people have made, and who hasn't made any (I can't double check his conclusions because I don't really have time to go through filters at this point. I'm at ~7 hours of taking notes just reading sequentially as is ), but at the same time this doesn't really add anything. Everyone has the ability to check the filters. You need your own reads, not just a list of others. Says he gives up now, asks to be replaced. Frustrated townie, or frustrated scum? If he doesn't get replaced by D3 and gets modkilled, all of these notes will be very interesting. Hopeless1der - 50 D1 - Very little activity early, jumps on a useless post that was a reply to the host. Defends Anacletus a bit later on. Jumps on a Fencar post with the argument "I don't think your posting is scummy, just unproductive" and votes him. Convenient argument for not being the hammer vote on D1 ("As you've already changed your vote to ensure a lynch, it probably doesn't matter anymore, but I was going to do the same thing (Switch vote from Fencer to Anacletus) closer to the deadline (unless Fencer got jumped).") N1 - Defends himself by saying he didn't think Anacletus or Fencer were scummy, while he voted Fencer and said he would jump to Anacletus at the last minute if he had to. Why voting people you don't feel are scum? Not wanting to No-Lynch isn't a good enough reason, IMO. D2 - First fully laid out case against Intact. Makes a strong case that probably eventually lead to the townie lynch. Where's the information on other people, rather than tunneling the one? Oh, its a few posts down. Makes a case against BlinD (now me), but it has no real hard leads (almost solely just that he's lurking and isnt contributing, which is certainly useful [obviously, I've mentioned numerous times in those notes about people not posting], but not exactly damning at this point), and objectively feels pretty weak. Points some more small arguments towards Bob that are along the same lines. Redirecting attention towards others to keep it off of himself? Towards BlinD: "I want to see reads, not vague accusations of what might be scummy behaviour." when this is exactly what his cases against BlinD and Bob are; cases against their activity level rather than reads on the content. "However, the more time spent on me is less time spent on any other case." Don't want time spent on you? Seems to have dramatically stepped up his activity on D2, which is odd. Day 1 Final Votes: Anacletus : BLinD-RawR(me now), BobTheLob, Fencer710, Intact (Townie), iamperfection, Promethelax, Myles Intact (Town) : Anacletus (Town) Fencer710 : Hopeless1der Hopeless1der : AmericanUmlaut, JingleHell Day 2 Final Votes: BLinD-RawR (1): Intact Intact (6): AmericanUmlaut, BobTheLob, Promethelax, Hopeless1der, Myles, sciberbia Hopeless1der(1): Fencar BobTheLob (1): iamperfection The repeat votes on the mislynches: BobTheLob, Promethelax, Myles I think there is a very good possibility that at least one of the Mafia is in this list. So, without further adieu, thanks for welcoming me to the game, and I hope people have comments! Off to bed now, will check back in in the morning. | ||
Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On July 04 2012 19:34 AmericanUmlaut wrote: What is scum-biased about Lynch all Liars? Misinformation serves the PBUs' interest, there is no advantage to be gained by town players lying, and establishing that as a rule early on prevents a play later in the game in which scum escapes a lynch by convincing town that their lie was tactical. From previous experience, scum is more likely to keep the lies to a minimum, or when they do lie, to be really small lies and hard to prove that they are lying. Cornered townies are the ones who make up big lies (See NMM XVIII, where a townie claims DT when he's pressured on D2). At the very least, mafia are going to put more thought and reason into their lies (3 heads are better than one), which makes them less likely to get caught lying. On July 04 2012 19:34 AmericanUmlaut wrote: I explained this already once before, but I'll point it out again: If I'm voting for an 80% scum read and the choice is between a no-lynch and a 60% scum read, then the 60% read is obviously the better play. The point isn't "just to get a kill", it's to make a probable scum lynch rather than sticking to an even more probably vote and ending up with nothing. I was just making an observation. "I explained this once before" is irrelevant. I was making notes as I went, not looking at posts in the future to dictate my notes. On July 04 2012 19:34 AmericanUmlaut wrote: Is this an intentional failure to understand me?] No, with clarification, I understand your point now. I'm not really sure Mafia are ever like "Okay, I'm going to talk a lot, you be the lurker!" though. Maybe so. If they do, then your point has merit. On July 04 2012 19:34 AmericanUmlaut wrote: but a first read-through feels like you're just pointing fingers at everybody without drawing any actual conclusions. My goal WAS to point fingers at everyone. Like I said, I started combing through from the beginning of the game. The only things I knew before I started reading was who had died already. So if I'm looking at Day1, I have to assume everyone is mafia, so that's what I did. But to say I didn't draw conclusions is wrong. I most certainly did, with my %scum numbers, but I guess I can lay it out for you. My top 3 scummy reads were (in order): 1) Promethelax (75%) 2) Myles (60%) 3) Hopeless (50%) Althought I might possibly bump Bob up to 50% as well. That said, I don't necessarily think those 3 are the scum team. More flips will certainly change the odds. But individually, those are my biggest reads. On July 04 2012 19:34 AmericanUmlaut wrote:I was leaning hard toward BLinD-RawR as a candidate for our next ban before he dropped out, two pages of "everyone is suspicious!" is a better contribution than he ever gave us, but it's not moving the needle on my read. I certainly don't expect to change people's minds with 1 post. And everyone IS suspicious. That's the nature of the game. We have no hard evidence to clear or convict anyone. This biggest case against BlinD was his inactivity, and I aim to change that entirely. If you want to lynch me, then fine, but lynch me based on MY merits, not his. | ||
Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
This argument makes no sense. What's "flimsy" about keeping quiet at night? Town can take no collective action at night, so putting more information into the thread can be of help only to the PBUs. What I meant was, it felt like you were trying to establish your townie-ship, and using this as your way to do it was weak. I don't necessarily think are are wrong, nor right. I think there are merits to both sides. Do you assume that JH was shot because of the things he said on n1? Or was he meta-gamed? Either way, the discussions he had on night 1 gave us more evidence to build on when he was eventually shot. | ||
Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On July 04 2012 22:19 Promethelax wrote: I'm going to lay out my ten second defense so that you don't waste the whole day going after me and instead hunt real scum. First up on things not to say when someone is suspicious of you.... Don't like having attention on yourself? On July 04 2012 22:19 Promethelax wrote: As to Fencar, you will note that most of my posts still talk about him, I still think that he is scum. I continued to pressure him and would have voted him but he dropped out, the only thing I posted about him that suggested that I wasn't still thinking of him as my top target was a drunk post I made when I said I was only watching him a little. I kept the pressure on and posted about why he was scum right before he dropped out of the game. I didn't follow up my Fencar is 99% scum if Anacletus is town because I didn't have anything to add to it; I had a case to build on his actions which I felt showed that so I didn't have to repeat my assertion (which I still believe to be true) that that flip reenforces Fencar as red. Lets clear some things up. + Show Spoiler + On June 30 2012 11:15 Promethelax wrote: I'm 99% sure that if Anacletus flips town Fencer is scum. His behaviour makes no sense otherwise. I still think Anacletus might be scum if he is than Fencer is probably town but if Anacletus is town Fencer is almost definitely scum. If, when I wake up tomorrow, we don't have enough votes for a lynch I'll unvote and vote for Anacletus since a no lynch won't help us at all and if he flips town I'm sure that Fencer is scum. We should never lynch for information, obviously but we should be ready to use the information from our lynches. Where did that even come from? The only things that Fencer even said against Anacletus prior to that was + Show Spoiler + - Anacletus is very suspicious, not really doing anything but posting a lot. This may suggest that both Anacletus and Jinglehell may both be mafia. Jinglehell points his finger at Monk after pointing it at Anacletus, then Anacletus points it at Jinglehell. And then he votes him, unvotes, and revotes. Are the things he said a bit fishy? Definitely. Are they "99% sure" fishy? Hell no. The fact of the matter is that "99% sure" mentality is a good way to come back later and be like "Hey guys, remember this thing I said on day 1? Well Fencar is still alive now, and I've been talking about him all game, so there's an even better chance that I'm right now! Lets lynch him!". You've kept up a constant small amount of pressure towards him, but like I said, even on D2 when you made your big case against him, you still didn't reference your 99% sure mentality. You just made the same case anyone else would have made. It doesn't add up, to me. On July 04 2012 22:19 Promethelax wrote: So after I lost my main red read to the ether I looked around again to find the next reddest guy, there were solid cases on Intact that had been made by other people and I am more confidant about being able to discuss a case than that the ones I build are 100% right. Again, Mafia mentality. You've propagated other people's cases, added a minimal amount of personal input, and skated by with it. Your saving grace this game has just been that you've been so active (and yelling "Look at me I'm a townie!" all the time), that you've managed to get this far without anyone reading up much on what you've done. On July 04 2012 22:19 Promethelax wrote: As to that scum-slip, yeah, no. One was dead by that point and the other was my biggest townie read. I should have worded it differently but I didn't. That's exactly what a scum-slip IS. Maybe this isn't one, but saying "No it isn't!" helps your case about as much as saying "I'm a vanilla townie!" when someone points suspicion at you. I just wanted other people to be aware of it and to make up their own minds about your intention. All in all, your post did nothing to alleviate my suspicions, and actually probably made you look even more scummy in the process. | ||
Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
AmericanUmlaut wrote: The scumteam I currently have in mind is Intact, hopeless1der and Fencer710. Of the three, I feel the most strongly about Intact and hopeless1der; I find these accusations highly strange, because of the fact that Hopeless was basically the first person to make a hard case against Intact (even before yours, which you piggybacked off of), and before anyone else has voted. I would very, very, very highly doubt them of being a scumteam at that point. Not saying that one or the other isn't maf, but the probability that both are maf are close enough to 0, that your post seems especially scummy. On July 04 2012 21:42 Keirathi wrote: I was just making an observation. "I explained this once before" is irrelevant. I was making notes as I went, not looking at posts in the future to dictate my notes. I just want to make another note on this. I forgot how much it had bothered me when JH pointed it out, and while i mentioned it in my notes, I feel slightly stronger about it now. You exact words were + Show Spoiler + On July 01 2012 02:09 AmericanUmlaut wrote: I still have a scummy read on Anacletus, but actively arguing in favor of a mislynch over no lynch at all is far scummier play than he's demonstrated so far. On July 01 2012 02:09 AmericanUmlaut wrote: I'm a bit concerned that there might be too many players who will be inactive between now and the lynch, in which case I'll be switching my vote back to Anacletus to prevent a no-lynch. This is so contradicting. You basically said "Arguing for mislynch is scummier than arguing for a no-lynch, but I will perpetuate a mislynch so that we don't no-lynch today". I understand your defense you posted to my notes, but I'm really not sure that's a good enough excuse for such a glaring flip-flop in the span of a few lines. Bumps my % up a few ticks, for sure. As for as you Hopeless: Hopeless1der wrote: Then again, so did Promethelax, and I'm watching him a bit more closely now, but I don't feel Keirathi's read on him is as strong as he's made it out to be. In addition, Prom didn't really attack Keirathi's post, and felt like a much calmer, reasoned defense than the tone of AmericanUmlaut's. While I appreciate you at least posting something regarding Prom, I don't feel this helps your case as mafia, nor his, because both of you were in my top 3 reads. You basically just gave such a super soft defense of him that it looks more like you're scumteam than it looks like you're a townie trying to clear his name. Your posting style changed so much between day1 and day2 as well. What caused it? You obviously are intelligent and make rational arguments, that it just makes your day1 style even more suspect. Sorry, I just still have you as a very high read; just too many little things (and a few big ones) that have added up over time. At least you posted about other people rather than yourself though, which is a welcome change. The intention with these notes was to spark discussion by everyone, about everyone. People coming here just to defend their selves, when their individual section is such a small part of the whole document, doesn't really contribute anything to further discussion. I kind of feel bad about digging into your case more when you were objectively helping me out, but I feel like its my job as a townsperson to thoroughly investigate everyone individually and present my cases. Sorry | ||
Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On July 05 2012 06:28 Hopeless1der wrote: @Keirathi With respect to my brief paragraph about Prom, that was more of an afterthought that someone might have brought up as a flaw in my reasoning against Umlaut. It was my take on their tone in their response to you and less about the content of their respective defenses. Ultimately, I find AmericanUmlaut to be the scummier looking player, based on my reads and his hostile tone through his defense, and that was the main point I wanted to convey without looking like I'd just dismissed the fact that your strongest read was Promethelax. I can understand your point to an extent. But look at it from my perspective for a moment. One of my scummiest reads (you) comes and defends my absolute strongest read with a very dismissive argument without really addressing any of my points against him, and then proceeds to launch into an argument against one of my weakest reads (which does make some good points, by the way). If I make the assumption that you are mafia (not that I am, at this point, I'm just getting my point across), then you just attempted to change my focus off of my scum read and onto my non-scum read. Pretty easy to see why that comes across as scummy. To be fair, I would probably be having these same arguments had you totally dismissed my Prom read and didn't mention it at all. I think your only real choice if your intent was to relieve some of my suspicion towards you would have been to lay out some arguments of your own against Prom, even if you later went own to lay out your case against Umlat and say that he was a stronger read for you. | ||
Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On July 05 2012 10:55 Promethelax wrote: Okay, clearly Keirathi thinks I am scum and a reasonable and well thought out response doesn't change his mind. I am not going to bother to defend myself against this since Kier won't listen to reason. Your post was well thought out, but I disagree with well reasoned. You didn't address a lot of points I had against you, and didn't address any of my counter-points after I responded to you. On July 05 2012 10:55 Promethelax wrote: Now like the reast of you, barring scum and dt if we have one, I have a total of one mod-confirmed townie alive in this game.That townie is me and I feel like I have done a good job in that role to work for town and to find mafia, this is reflected in the town read that everyone had on me until Kierth came into the thread That's the problem. You are NOT mod-confirmed townie. At best, you express occasional pro-town sentiments. At worst, you fling the mod-confirmed townie statement around like you're trying to convince everyone that you are. I didn't come into the thread and read the end first, then go back to the beginning and try to fit everyone's perceptions into my reads. I started from the beginning, found things about you were scummy, then you started trying to blend in. On July 05 2012 10:55 Promethelax wrote: Keir says it is because of how much I post. My filter is three pages long. Count 'em. You know who else has a three page filter? Statistically speaking you do. Myles is on three pages, so is Umlaut, and Hopeless is as well. JH has four pages and he died n1. Lurkers like Bob, Iamimperfection and even Anacletus have two page filters. So why does Kier attack me with this facitius reason? Sure, I'll play. Myles - 47 Umlaut - 46 Bob - 25 Perfection - 26 Prom - 49 Hopeless - 49 That statistically puts you at the top of the activity charts. I never claimed you were so much more active than everyone else, I just said you've gotten a get-out-of-jail-free card because you've been keeping the thread moving. On July 05 2012 10:55 Promethelax wrote: Keir's one big post is a re-hash of everything that has happened in thread. He calls it his notes and there are a few observations thrown in but it feels like a a huge post that screams “look at me! Look at me! I am totally contributing!” without actually contributing. I'll link the post and you can read it over for yourself, it is so big that I skimmed it this morning when I had to run to work but it actually doesn't add as much as something of that length should. You are right to an extent. My notes were basically just a summary of the scummy things that have happened in the thread, with notes/thoughts thrown in where appropriate. My goal was to spark discussion on everyone, not keep channeling the first person someone makes a case against. That hasn't worked out for town very well. On July 05 2012 10:55 Promethelax wrote: I'd say that is from someone who has talked to 'marv' and not our coaches. I present to you: On July 04 2012 02:40 marvellosity wrote: Why does no-one ever spell sciberbia's name correctly? :< Do you even read the thread? Filters are good and all, but you miss context if that's all you look at. On July 05 2012 10:55 Promethelax wrote: Keir has said that Hopeless is his next scummiest read after me. No, I said Hopeless was my third scummiest read. I said Myles was my second scummiest read. If I go with my gut about you being scum, then your defense of Myles without actually making any arguments for him almost certainly makes him scum too. Now for my conclusion: If I was mafia, why would it make sense for my to NK sciberbia last night AND during the next day argue against the person who has the most townie support? It would make way, way more sense for me to kill you, then try to push a case on Bob or Myles (whom you said are town) who have had people making some scummy reads on them throughout the game. You basically said as much in the last line of your defense of Bob. Now that that's out of the way, I hope more people will come in and give some of their views. I highly encourage you to take a hard look at EVERYONE. Not just the people you think are scum. Make a small write-up with little pros and cons of everyone. Just, for the love of god, don't be mute. | ||
Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On July 05 2012 10:55 Promethelax wrote: 25% is the lowest chance of flipping scum he gives followed by two thirties and everyone else has a 50% chance or greater, talk about hedging your bets and leaving yourself an out. I had 3 people over 50, and 4 people under 50 (with a hard no-read on Fencar/Milton). And you wanted to call me out for distorting facts. | ||
Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On July 05 2012 13:17 Promethelax wrote: I'll try to reply to your post since you clearly want to continue this. That's not what I want at all. You were right, town doesn't gain much by the two of us arguing back and forth. I will fully admit that I might be wrong about you. That's why I'm asking for other people to come in with their own thoughts about you, and about everyone else. | ||
Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On July 05 2012 13:46 Promethelax wrote: how Intact was likely to be a red power role actually point more towards you being scum. Your attacks require a clear misunderstanding of what people say to have any traction. I freely admitted that I did misunderstand him. My initial read through, for some reason I thought be meant blue roles, rather than red power roles. Once he clarified what he meant, I agreed with the sentiment. As far as the rest of your position on Umlaut, I mostly agree. However, I wasn't attacking him (in fact, his reply to my notes post felt a bit too aggressive, when I had basically given him my seal of approval), and my points on him (and you) aren't baseless. My conclusions might be wrong, but I didn't just make shit up. On July 05 2012 13:46 Promethelax wrote: Myles: I had thought he was scum early on, his posting improved and he became null for me, I was planning on talking about him earlier but die to time constraints had to leave some people out of my reads. My opinion of him has changed a little because of his reaction to the night kill. Since the night kill he has only posted in frustration which, in my opinion, would be a really easy thing to fake as scum. He hasn't given us anything and he hasn't participated in discussions. Because of his refusal to be a part of town when we need it most he has slipped back into the scum column. He posted four times in four hours and added no things to the thread. Huh? Just TWO posts ago you said you believed Myles to be town. + Show Spoiler + Myles is, as far as I can tell, town. (look at me, spelling out that my opinions are my opinions, I wish I had more information that I could give you but I don't and I can't). And re iamperfection: yea, I mostly agree that he hasn't been active enough to really make a solid read on. Second fewest posts of all the active players, and who I found the least amount of actual useful information about (ie, i basically only have 3 lines of stuff about him). He's pretty null to me as well, but he really has to come out and O* something. This is crunch time, we need everyone participating. | ||
Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On July 05 2012 12:25 Hopeless1der wrote: In the meantime, is it worth No-Lynching today? We get another day to look for scum and it buys time to get a better read on miltonkram and keirathi. It also gives our potential blue(s) another day to get information. Right now I'm inclined to believe its our best course of action as town is guaranteed to not lose for one more day. ##VOTE: No Lynch Sorry if it seemed like I was ignoring your proposal. I am of the opinion that no-lynch is a good idea for town in this situation, but in my last game (XVIII), I proposed the same plan in the same situation (5 townies, 3 scum) and spent a lot of time vehemently defending it. In the end, I got shot down (and it wouldn't have worked anyways because plurality system instead of majority in that game, which I didn't understand) repeatedly (although in hindsight, the people arguing against me were all scum), and our doc ended up getting lynched and we lost the game. If other people are on-board, I'm all for it. I personally think it benefits town, but I won't spend time arguing for it because we just waste time that could be used discussing candidates instead. | ||
Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On July 06 2012 01:58 Hopeless1der wrote: Okay so we all want our reads on the table. I'm going through each player's filter and getting a feel for them based on the game so far. This won't be incredibly detailed but if you see something you'd like me to specifically expand on I'll look into it further:
Yea. He's been on the vote for both townies (hammer vote day1, almost hammer vote day 2), which is bad enough in itself, but he really hasn't said a ton of useful things. Or, rather, has not committed to the few useful things he has said. And his outburst at the start of n2 was pretty...odd, to say the least. If you don't want townies to die, make cases against the people you think are scum, dont just ride the bandwagon with everyone else. Despite that, and despite him being my second highest read coming into today, I'm giving him the BOTD right now. On July 06 2012 01:58 Hopeless1der wrote:
I'm not quite as sold. If we assume at least one (and probably 2) of the more active posters are scum, then out of the lurkers, he has one of the better cases imo. He lurks so hard, but he has conveniently showed up 2 times exactly when someone posts a big case against him. He, like Myles and Promethelax, was on both of the bandwagon townie kills. He accused you, and later Prom, but didn't make cases against either one of you, just expecting other people to make them. He wouldn't be the first person I would vote, but depending how long he lasts, I am definitely keeping an eye on him. On July 06 2012 01:58 Hopeless1der wrote:
Point 1: I can't really say much about that. I obviously had no control over what he did or said. He did have some things that could be misconstrued as scummy, but I can only believe it was because he was a newbie and didn't know how to play. Point 2: Myles - Leaning towards town at present AmericanÜmlaut - Scum BobTheLob - Leaning Town BLinD-RawR > Keirathi - Probably Scum iamperfection - Leaning towards Scum Promethelax - Still Town Fencer710 > Miltonkram - NULL You complain about me saying anyone could be scum, but you have a list that basically says that anyone could be scum at the same time. Your words for each person are the exact same thing as my numbers. Also + Show Spoiler + Scum, I feel, would have made more of an effort to not look wishy-washy. Point 3: Lets make the assumption that I am scum, and I want to win. All I need to do is get a NK last night, and then get a lynch today (or tomorrow if theres a no-lynch). Why in the HELL would I pick Prom as my target to go after for that 1 lynch? It makes ZERO FUCKING SENSE. There are so much easier cases to make, and NK'ing Prom would have taken out one of the active people trying to steer cases towards people. And you can't say that NK'ing him would have pointed fingers at me, because he literally had NEVER made a case against BlinD. At worst he said he would look into BlinD after Intact died. On July 06 2012 01:58 Hopeless1der wrote:
Interesting. I haven't been able to get much of a read on him, but you make some compelling points. Duly noted. I'll take another look through his filter now. One minor point of contention: he said he thought no-lynch was a bad idea, and that we needed to lynch today. On July 06 2012 01:58 Hopeless1der wrote:
I'm not really going to comment much on these. I'll agree to disagree, for now. He has been flip-floppy though. And he's one of the 3 people that were on both townie bandwagons, even when he claims they weren't his top scum reads. On July 06 2012 01:58 Hopeless1der wrote:
Yea, like I mentioned in my notes, Fencar's posting really throws me for a loop. He flip-flopped around d1, had very little in the way of actually contributing, voted for Anacletus, but all the while it kind of seemed like he was just a newbie. His defense of Prom on day1 when Prom had been pushing hard on him all day was so out of nowhere. He was really all over the place. And yea, Milton said he was going to be gone 8-12 hours and then would catch up. Its been 24 hours. Where are you? | ||
Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
Myles wrote: I'm not going to write some bullshit post that about stuff I don't believe in. So don't write up a bullshit post that you don't believe in. Write up a post with observations about the game, and the pros and cons about each person. Your perspective on people and what they've said is important, even if you're too non-committal to draw a conclusion. @Milton, perfection, Bob, Umlaut: Where are you guys? This is getting ridiculous. OOC: I would be curious to see what would happen in this game if all the active posters who make cases and keep the thread flowing were killed off (or just kept silent for a full day cycle). Who would step up? Would there just be 45 hours of nothing, then 3 hours of people voting? It's pretty frustrating. | ||
Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On July 06 2012 21:36 AmericanUmlaut wrote: The No-Lynch option If we really have no good reads, then no-lynching and hoping for a better read tomorrow is better than mislynching. We're 5 town and 3 PBUs now: One mislynch without a medic save at night ends the game. The disadvantage is that tomorrow we'll have most likely lost one of our better players, since the PBUs appear to be taking people out according to their ability to argue effectively, and because of the numbers the debate tomorrow will be more strongly dominated by PBUs (assuming they're not all lurking) than by town players. On balance, I would say that no-lynching is worth it if we don't think that we've got a better than 70% or so chance of hitting scum tonight. Before I address the rest of your post, I just want to share something I realized last night. Because we can't abstain from voting, nor can we actually vote for a no-lynch, the only realistic way we can plan a no-lynch is if every townie votes for a different person. If any two townies vote for the same person, then the 3 mafia can just hammer them at the last minute and we lose. That's not to say that a no-lynch can't accidentally happen in other ways, but its pretty unlikely. The most obvious way is if we get to the end of the day and someone has a large number of votes (say, 4) and no one hammers him. That means that person is almost certainly scum, because scum would hammer any townie at the last minute on this day because they are virtually guaranteed the win. | ||
Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On July 07 2012 00:39 Hopeless1der wrote: It's looking like I might be lynched so I'm claiming Vanilla Townie Some of my scummy behavior is from throwaway posts early. Whether anyone believes me or not, well I tried: Easily done as scum to fall back on later so I don't expect this to sway anyone significantly, but consider the two posts I quoted. They're both terrible with practically no contributions, except for the role I breadcrumbed. Since I have to vote for someone, I'm voting for AmericanUmlaut as my strongest read, and he currently has no votes. I'd prefer the no-lynch in this situation, but I cant vote No Lynch so... ##Vote: AmericanUmlaut rofl, that's creative. Not overly helpful, but creative. | ||
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