EPT/in
(I'll pull out if a newbie wants in and just be on the replacement list)
Newbie Mini XV
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
heist
United States720 Posts
/in (I'll pull out if a newbie wants in and just be on the replacement list) | ||
|
heist
United States720 Posts
| ||
|
heist
United States720 Posts
The issue isn't with the unknown setup. It doesn't matter. No matter what the setup is, we should always go through with a Day 1 lynch. The flaw with your logic is that the lynches are not pure probability. We are not condemning some poor soul to death from a name in a hat. It is based on people's reactions to pressure, contradictions, activity level, and other information generated by discussion. When someone dies, most of us should be feeling comfortable with it. If anything, the purpose of a Day 1 lynch is not some slim chance of lynching mafia, but for information. Information we can use to lead the course of Day 2 and onward. In your scenario, every lynch is an isolated incident. The lynches of each day are not independent. The outcome of a Day 1 lynch WILL affect the outcome of the Day 2 lynch, and only for the better because of all us will have a clearer picture of the situation. --- In other news: I wanted to suggest a few things to town that you may or may not find useful: 1. DO NOT claim you are a vanilla townie. We won't believe you AND you should be glad to die in place of a blue. We don't want to limit the pool of possible blues. 2. Attention DT (if we have one) - Let's say you get a lucky check on scum. Do not reveal yourself day 2. Do not come screaming into the thread with your pants still at your feet. You are not guaranteed a medic. Breadcrumb your result. Look at their behavior and create an accusation. Anything is better than a reveal. 3. This is a newbie game. Most people don't know what to do as a blue role. Pretend you don't have it. Seriously, most people with a blue role are afraid to stick their head out and, as a result, are often mistaken for scum. We don't want to hang you so please don't give us a reason. Be active. 4. Try not to bandwagon with a simple "I agree with ___". We want to limit our lynch candidates. The voting patterns of Day 1 may end up leading us to an excellent mafia candidate day 3 or later. If we have people voting all over the place, the usefulness of the day 1 lynch becomes diluted. That's not say don't be aggressive. Don't be afraid to poke the bear right in the eye if you feel good about an accusation. --- @Cattivik "Sciberbia is the most active poster so far, also he's not promoting a NL, he's questioning day1 lynch. Whatever, I'm pretty sure he's clean, no mafia would go for the first post in a newbie game." That defense is borderline scummy. There is nothing that mafia won't do. Do not assume he's clean because he's the first post in a newbie game. Obviously this is only your first impression, but your reasoning is a little off here. | ||
|
heist
United States720 Posts
Your reasoning makes sense, sciberbia, it also allows to choose a lynch with more information available, however returning less information in the beginning. I would still go for the lynch. At least to get rid of pesky lurkers and inactives, in case there's noone stinking of scum already. Look at this beginning statement. He agrees with Sciberbia's plan, but decides to support the complete opposite? CONTRADICTION. To me, this looks like he's going with the popular opinion (afraid to rock the boat) while simultaneously seeming to offer him support and defense. Either you agree or you don't. Sciberbia is the most active poster so far, also he's not promoting a NL, he's questioning day1 lynch. Whatever, I'm pretty sure he's clean, no mafia would go for the first post in a newbie game. That said, I'm pretty sure Miltonkram is one of us aswell, although I think he makes a mistake pointing the finger at one of the most active in here. O.Golden_ne posted nicely already aswell. As for solstice, i'm not sure. His first post reflect a certain indecision whispering: 'Do whatever you want, I'm in for it.' Then he points the finger at the most active player. I won't say you're scummy, but you aren't clean yet in my book as opposed to the others.Why do you question our most active townie. Ange777's post makes him look like he's bandwagoning if you look at the majority of the pro-lynch responses before.A pretty thin post. Still, all of those don't stink scummy until we get information from people who didn't post already. He seems to really trust Sciberbia based solely on his activity and the notion that "first post can't be mafia" (I mentioned this before). His further reasoning: "Sciberbia is not promoting a NL, he's questioning a day 1 lynch". No. Sciberbia is definitely promoting a NL. It's been obvious since his reasoning. He attempts to remove heat from Sciberbia, over promoting his townie-ness and attacking others who place suspicion on him. He tries to deflect all opposition from Sciberbia, which at this point, is frankly strange. (look at his analysis on Solstice and Miltonkram). He goes out of his way to defend him and his plan while being careful not stick his neck out by staying with the town majority. | ||
|
heist
United States720 Posts
| ||
|
heist
United States720 Posts
| ||
|
heist
United States720 Posts
On May 31 2012 13:18 Eishi_Ki wrote: Sorry for delaying, I was washing the blood off me knife. Skinning a pig can be tiring work.... Anyway, so far what I've got is that Cattivik seems the most likely candidate for scum (overuses collectives such as 'us' and 'we') and doesn't provide any evidence for initially supporting Scib and then saying he wants to LD1 anyway. However, I'm also cautious of Milton. Sciberbia seems like the obvious guy who is going against the grain here and I feel that was jumped on at the first available opportunity. Promoting Townies to be active for more information helps everyone, not just the Townies but his post was tendered towards the Townies which I feel may be a guise. Needz moar infos I agree with needing more information. And by no means should you blindly follow any accusations. I take it you agree with me on Cattivik but can you clarify your first point about the overuse of the "collective". How exactly is this a scumtell? I'd like some further responses, especially, especially from you, Cattivik. Overall, it's looking as if we aren't going to be plagued by inactivity and lurking although I would prod Superouman and Ange77 to post more and be active. @Sciberbia thanks for the discussion generator, but I'm sure it's apparent that the town majority heavily favors a Day 1 lynch and we should proceed to do so. So enough about policy, I'm curious as to your your thoughts on the other players and suspicions. | ||
|
heist
United States720 Posts
On May 31 2012 20:20 Cattivik wrote: I'll answer to some of the accusations towards me here, also revealing more important information: + Show Spoiler + On May 31 2012 11:47 O.Golden_ne wrote: @Cattivik Your posting reads so early, with not alot of actual content to date. Early days yet, though remember i'm watching you. Miltonkram what a great post before work. I agree with all points you've said and want anyone who want's to discuss policy to just read that post. I slightly agree with your position on sciberbia as he is promoting policy discussion about no-lynch, however i agree that mafia first post is improbable. My main suspicion lies with Cattivik, though once sciberbia posts some responses to your accusation i will consider a vote on him. ##FOS: Cattivik Miltonkram has finally understood the point sciberbia was trying to make, you also agree on my point about him most likely not being mafia due to first post. His post has generated most discussion so far. Probably more than by just voting for someone based on a gut feeling. From the start of the game the majority, including me, was for D1 lynching, making sciberbias post obsolete cause we won't be discussing policy anyway.It is clear that someone will hang at the end of the day. + Show Spoiler + On May 31 2012 12:27 heist wrote: Let's have a look at Cattivik. Look at this beginning statement. He agrees with Sciberbia's plan, but decides to support the complete opposite? CONTRADICTION. To me, this looks like he's going with the popular opinion (afraid to rock the boat) while simultaneously seeming to offer him support and defense. Either you agree or you don't. I never agreed to a plan: On May 31 2012 07:48 Cattivik wrote: Giovanni Falcone reporting in. Pro lynch, any information better than no information. Also, Sciberbia, the blue font is reserved for the mods. Let's see who's active, i also remember a guy announcing exams, anyone silent will hang from the towns' tree. On May 31 2012 07:58 Cattivik wrote: Sounds like he thought that a medic setup could save a townie from being lynched, but what for? As far as i know the alignment isn't revealed unless the target dies, in this case it won't. But I was able to understand his logic concerning the difference between D1L/NL once he explained it. Also, there is one more tell for him being actually town: It's unlikely that such a mistake would happen to three mafia at the same time, who without doubt know each others' posts before they are out. In fact, posting in blue font confirms him as townie. Aswell as the fact that it would require a pretty solid plan for mafia to start with the first post, I don't see anything unfolding here though Obviously I took him into defense cause I don't want the most active posters to die first cause they have the balls to expose their neck to easy triggers who do all the work for the mafia by doing so. First and foremost, the lurkers and cautious ones have to get votes, else they can just keep lurking. On May 31 2012 12:27 heist wrote: He seems to really trust Sciberbia based solely on his activity and the notion that "first post can't be mafia" (I mentioned this before). His further reasoning: "Sciberbia is not promoting a NL, he's questioning a day 1 lynch". No. Sciberbia is definitely promoting a NL. It's been obvious since his reasoning. He attempts to remove heat from Sciberbia, over promoting his townie-ness and attacking others who place suspicion on him. He tries to deflect all opposition from Sciberbia, which at this point, is frankly strange. (look at his analysis on Solstice and Miltonkram). He goes out of his way to defend him and his plan while being careful not stick his neck out by staying with the town majority. Based on the response to the previous quotes, I'm not just 'with' the majority, I've been part of it from the start of this game (for a D1 lynch before even knowing what sciberbias reasoning was). And it's in the best interest of the town to keep productive townies alive, sciberbia among them. I also don't like all this fingerpointing between active townies, if there are mafia still lurking, they can lean back. + Show Spoiler + On May 31 2012 13:18 Eishi_Ki wrote: Sorry for delaying, I was washing the blood off me knife. Skinning a pig can be tiring work.... Anyway, so far what I've got is that Cattivik seems the most likely candidate for scum (overuses collectives such as 'us' and 'we') and doesn't provide any evidence for initially supporting Scib and then saying he wants to LD1 anyway. However, I'm also cautious of Milton. Sciberbia seems like the obvious guy who is going against the grain here and I feel that was jumped on at the first available opportunity. Promoting Townies to be active for more information helps everyone, not just the Townies but his post was tendered towards the Townies which I feel may be a guise. Needz moar infos You confused something, first I said i want to LD1, then i defended sciberbia. I've never even considered a NL in this game, but I don't claim that it doesn't make sense in any situation. In summary, the controversy about the policy talk seems to be dead to me. There is gonna be a D1 lynch. This is also a tl;dr version of the post for people who trust me anyway. Here, my updated statements regarding some of the players posting so far: Heist: I'll wait to see how he reacts to his arguments' dismissal now that sciberbia should be a confirmed townie. If I was scum, I'd know about his status and wouldn't have taken him into defense against a majority. However, given that i suspect others more for their passivity, I dont think that Heist is scum. Ange777: Stop lurking. I'll vote for you. Superouman: Stop making fun of a tragedy and sleeping all day, but more especially, stop lurking. I'll vote for you too when the time is ripe. Eishi_Ki: Pretty poor arguments to accuse me, but blends in well with the opinions of the former posts.You also say you have a reason to keep lurking. A win/win situation for mafia. You also suspect those who are most active here. Then there's this: Dude, what. How is it a good thing? You are basically saying that you won't contribute much to the scumhunt while the scumjuice flows out of your every pore. I don't even want to go on with other players cause I think you should start telling us more about your thought processes: ##VOTE :Eishi_Ki I'll try to break it down. Sciberbia is NOT a confirmed townie. I think that's what the rest of us has a hard time seeing. Your faith in him is just ridiculously high at this point that it's creating a lot of suspicion. You keep using these short justifying statements such as "he posted first, he can't be mafia" "he accidentally used blue font, he can't be mafia" that in all honesty don't say anything at all about alignment. Just because someone mistakenly uses blue font, you cannot confirm them as town. Sciberbia doesn't even need to be mafia. You can be scum, trying to win over a fellow townie by being the only one coming to his defense. And the one time you branch out of Sciberbia defense, you hastily vote to lynch someone that is accusing you. Your subsequent attack on eishi seems really out of place and reactionary. I'm just not seeing how after all this he's the one you think is most scummy. Sciberbia I would really like your opinion on Cattivik. Go through his filter, almost every single one of his posts is him defending you. Naturally I'm still quite suspicious. | ||
|
heist
United States720 Posts
@ Superouman: I'd love to hear your thoughts on some candidates, more than a simple "let's kill lurkers, they ruin town atmosphere". It sounds good in theory, but.... no names, no analysis, just something easily said and ultimately something town can't really use. So looking forward to some more posts from you @Ange77: I hope you blow me away to make up for not contributing much. No pressure  | ||
|
heist
United States720 Posts
Typo. Don't want to seem like an idiot. | ||
|
heist
United States720 Posts
And its.......... a wild vote on Sciberbia from nowhere. I want a reason. A good reason. heist: One of the things I notice is that you didn't acknowledge my defence so far. You also didn't post a definite opinion in form of a vote or FoS. You gave general hints at the start. I can't tell if you are mafia or town. Cattivik, I did respond. Filter me in case you missed it. And make no mistake you are still my #1 candidate, which I hope you got from the content and tone of my posts. I just don't like cementing early reads Day 1 with a formal vote, which in all honesty is pretty useless this early. It's enough for me to present my case against you to the town. Alright, now to my next defense: I'm one of the most, if not the most active poster in this game so far. Assuming that I survive this day or night while being mafia, my posts make me so transparent that I wouldn't survive day 2 for certain. In that case, I would have played mafia like an idiot. Also cause I'm exposing myself quite extremely. Whoever should be proven wrong for promoting the case against me in case I get lynched will most likely get in trouble the next day, cause I will flip town. Cattivik, what this argument amounts to is: I'm really active and because of that I'm bound to slip up as Mafia. Therefore, I can't be mafia since I wouldn't be so active to prevent slip-ups. Careful, you are very close to admitting that you are using your activity and extreme opinions as a shield to deflect every suspicious thing you are doing. Essentially you want us to disregard anything suspicious you might do because of how vulnerable you are putting yourself. Activity is protown, but by no means does it determine alignment. I would take note of this: Solstice, Xatalos, & Sciberbia. I understand your arguments. You feel no mafia would put himself so out there with such a sustained defense. I'm not so convinced that mafia won't be so "extreme". I also don't have the benefit of knowing your alignment as you do Sciberbia. The only thing tempering my opinion on Cattivik is actually my mostly town reading on Sciberbia. However, among the two leading candidates, unforgiven_ve and Cattivik, I am not really convinced of unforgiven's scumminess. He promised another post, and I'll reserve judgment till then. So I'll be sticking with Cattivik for the time being, BUT Superouman is rapidly rising in my suspicions. | ||
|
heist
United States720 Posts
| ||
|
heist
United States720 Posts
There is no reason that one townie should be that sure of another townie, Day 1 especially. For me, there is absolutely no one that I'm so convinced of as Cattivik seems to be. So any attempt to deflect every single accusation on a fellow player is of course highly suspicious on my mind. Mafia tend to find it much safer to create a stance defending someone rather than accusing someone. Fewer repercussions. It suggests to me an ulterior motive. And now he's starting to suggest that any indication of his scumminess needs to be disregarded precisely because he defends you to such an extent. It's convenient and not out of the realm of mafia possibilities. He is simply my most suspicious player especially since the alternatives are not very convincing at this point. | ||
|
heist
United States720 Posts
On June 01 2012 07:56 sciberbia wrote: @heist So it seems you find it most likely that I am town, Cattivik is mafia, and he is just trying to gain townie cred. This is a reasonable hypothesis, but imo it's not that likely. The tone of Cattivik's posts suggests to me that he is a very confident, aggresive player. And therefore it is in character to be more sure about his beliefs than most people would be. Also, he went out of his way to defend me. Nobody even asked his opinion. The reason I ask is that under your hypothesis, your town-read of me should reinforce your mafia-read of Cattivik, rather than 'temper' it. I guess this is a bit counter-intuitive. My town read of you is definitely something that tempers my evaluation of Cattivik. The alternative of you being mafia, and Cattivik being your scumbuddy is a much more damning alternative and i would be pushing HARD, much harder than now, for a lynch. On June 01 2012 08:16 Vivax wrote: Townies not being sure of each other is ideal for mafia, it doesn't limit the pool of suspects, which is actually what I'm trying to do and you are disrupting. When we lynch with no read and maximum pool of suspects, we shoot fish in a barrel. When we limit the pool of suspects, the barrel gets smaller, the fishes might get louder. You might aswell say, we don't know anything except for me defending people who i believe are townies, which is incomplete, I have already pushed my case against Eishi_Ki but will obviously have to focus on other cases since I won't find a majority for that one in day 1. I create my stances in all possible ways on restricted cases, that's how a townie should play. Mafia creates stances maybe even defending townies when it's possible for them to blend in while doing so (notice how I am actually the first guy supporting sciberbia?). It also causes A LOT of repercussions for me, as opposed to your generalized argument. Also, when mafia gives advice, they will try to not adress problems in the thread, but try to give more generic advice everyone probably knows already. That also helps them blend in without creating vulnerable points for later. With all that said, heist, you're either badly informed about the game or scum. Pick one. Also, start voting for a lynch if you think I'm mafia. Town won't like you for being opportunistic and go for votes you didn't push by yourself, that allows for jumping on the most convenient bandwagon. Townies not being sure of each other Day 1 is natural. There is almost no information to go. You, on the other hand, are almost completely convinced of Sciberbia's alignment almost from the first minute of this game. Again, this lynch is not a matter of probability. Our goal isn't to eliminate suspects by placing them in pro-town status and "shooting blindly" into the rest. Our goal is to actively find suspicious, scummy people. I think this is crucial. Do not try to find townies, try to find mafia. Townies not being sure of each is much better than blindly following one player, being so seduced that you will automatically disregard everyone who attempts to argue with you or that person. I too am making and have been making my stance. And by now, I'm hoping you can see that spending Day 1 just defending one person is not helping town at all come lynch time. Even if you are right, eliminating the possibilties from 11 to 10 (excluding ourselves), this just isn't very useful. And before you keep going on and on about how my posts are generalized, that was isolated to my first post, which if you look at was not limited solely to generalized tips but also my take on the policy brought up by Sciberbia and my mention of you. Finally, I don't need to vote yet. Day 1 is literally only half done. We have about 23 hours to further clarfiy the situation. As you've notced your single vote on Eishi isn't doing much. So yes, I'll reserve my vote. But I'll tell you exactly how I'm going to vote. Depending on how Superouman and Unforgiven post, I'll give you the benefit of the doubt this early on. But should they come back and start wowing me with subsequent posts and start establishing a better town atmosphere, you will be getting my vote. | ||
|
heist
United States720 Posts
On June 01 2012 05:38 Superouman wrote: Since it's getting late in europe and not much time remaining, i'll vote now ##Vote sciberbia Is no one going to force Superouman to be liable for his really random, thoughtless vote on Sciberbia? He must be ecstatic to see almost the entire town become focused on the our other resident lurker. He has an early vote and I'm concerned that he's purposefully saying away precisely because everything is going his way. On May 31 2012 23:29 Superouman wrote: For the first day, i think we should lynch one of the lurkers. They maybe think if they do nothing, they will pass under the radar. Or if they are townies, well... they should just have said something to be less suspect My reasons exactly. Solstice you're right. Lurkers don't have content to analyze. There is no point in waxing on. I think Superouman is a better candidate than Ange77, who frankly has gotten a lot of votes in a short amount of time right at the deadline. Vote##: superouman | ||
|
heist
United States720 Posts
I just went through sciberbias, Eishi_Ki's and Miltonkrams' post. I'll first tell you who I'm going to vote for now: Ange777. He hasn't been contributing anything whatsoever, and while I think that sciberbias posting on suki was quite good, so was his defense. Right now there are a lot of votes for a lot of different people. The weirdest one coming from superouman, no explanation whatsoever. If there's a majority the town can get without fear of hitting blue, it's Ange777. It's a day 1 with lots of information from almost everybody with exception of him, and I can say for sure that this day 1 has been a fingerpointing match like it shouldn't have been for a good town. Let's at least try to finish it with something we have an agreement on: Like most of us stated, the lurkers should get lynched first unless we already have strong scumreads. And if this guy is mafia, he doesn't have to contribute anything as of now to remain unharmed. Vivax, you still have my suspicions but I promised you the benefit of the doubt for a more promising candidate. Every thing you've said can also be said about Superouman. You even call out Superouman's weird vote. I ask you, why Ange77 over Superouman? | ||
|
heist
United States720 Posts
##Vote: Superouman | ||
|
heist
United States720 Posts
| ||
|
heist
United States720 Posts
Quite frankly at this point, after reading your defense, it basically comes down to a question of deliberate lurking=mafia vs lack of time commitment. And that's just going to devolve into a pointless "I said, you said" game. We have many hours remaining. Give us your best analysis of the town so far. I want your reads. I want you to put yourself out there if you have to. | ||
|
heist
United States720 Posts
On June 02 2012 04:29 Unforgiven_ve wrote: Danm...i thought this language thing would not be a problem, i see im mistaken... I see my first post still is a problem for some players, i will try to summarize my response (for the last time) taking this post... when i say "dont use past game as a guide" i mean personally, dont look for the other games some especific player has played (¿sp?), they can change their way of playing very easily. I just had played 1 game, blue roleclaiming at the end of the game is pretty obvious for me. I said i will save my vote for the last triying to show the town how is my style" of play, like i said, watching all the post, getting information, etc...but i see maybe i was wrong, one should adapt to the way the TOWN plays. When i say town leader i ment someone who are good at making indepth anaysis and posts, who could get people thinking, who can sumarize 10 pages in one post... i think i did not made it very clear, but for a mafia this would be VERY hard to do, thats what i ment when i said "structure" just one or a couple of good players, not someone we will blindly follow...i forgot im in a newbie game ;D. Now to all the new information... __________________________________________________________________________ This extended mayority lynch will fuck us pretty bad, mafia are theonly ones benefiting from this i think... This new case (and votes) against Ange777... i did told you mafia would come at last hours for some activity uh? She's is now on my list, but suki remains number one, specially after this Same random blind vote agains a case someone's else started. s0Lstice: + Show Spoiler + On June 02 2012 02:37 s0Lstice wrote: Xatalos asked me how I felt about Unforgiven in light of his defense. I'm leaving my FoS where it is. When he finally had a little time to scum hunt, he pointed the finger at suki. It was a novel idea at the time, but to me it lacked effort. Look at sciberbia's post compared to his. Now, not all accusations have to have a big word count to be effective, but his effort just looks lazy. Does the reasoning he laid out really warrant a vote? Not to me. He says Suki never pressured anyone, which is ironic because a big part of sciberbia's case is that he bandwagon pressured a lot of people. Whether he was first on the scene or not, he has pressured milton, unforgiven, vivix, and superouman. Saying he hasn't pressured anyone is just false. His case is just 4 short points. The first I just discussed. Past that, his other points are a short filter, safe day 1 play, and some nonsense about taunting cattivik to butter him up for a day 2 vote. It's just not a lot to go on. Keep that in mind. In his defense posts, he says we should discuss everything and nothing at the same time. Don't throw FoS around, or votes. Don't use meta arguments. What is his idea of hunting scum? Those two things are very important tools for applying pressure. He says we need structure, but never says what that is outside from some leader emerging to tell us what to do. His message remains totally unclear. Wait, be smart about scumhunting, and let people talk...but don't use half the tools in your arsenal to get them to talk. He doesn't follow his own rules. He posts a 'meh' case on Suki and then votes right away. If he was following his own rules, I'd think he'd at least wait for a defense before throwing his vote around. Bottom line is I like that he has started to make some effort to hunt scum, and I realize that he has had to spend a lot of time defending himself, but there are still so many inconsistencies in his play that my FoS stays put. I will keep watching. On refresh I see there's a lot of other stuff going on right now so I'd better hurry up and post! Some tother time would say you are not good at reading and throw a light insult ;D but at this point of the game i (think?) know is me not knowing how to make a proper post. Im not good at writing long posts thats why i try to resume and point to the precise stuff i find scummy. Suki voted for Ange77 to enforce a day 1 lynch especially since YOU had only a single vote. For me, suki is still number 1, if Ange777 flips red this will just convice me even more, i bet they are wishing for a NL. I will change my vote before deadline if neccesary, i still have a couple hour to burn. As always, if anyone has any question please ask You are literally going after everyone who has found you suspicious. And these are all pretty weak claims. You start going off on Ange77 for "siding with you too strongly"? I think you are taking bandwaggoning a bit too far. She had her own analysis. You somehow tie together both suki and ange77 as mafia scum? What??? You explicitly state that you are going to disregard Solstice and don't bother to defend yourself. I am not completely convinced about Suki and the main accusation right now seems to refer to the switch vote to Ange77. We decided we wanted a day 1 lynch. We needed a majority. Perhaps he wanted to lay down his vote incase he missed the deadline. Bandwaggoning I find is useless accusation in and of itself. In a complete body of work it can greatly support a claim. But we need this majority for a lynch and I can completely see him changing his vote with Unforgiven's case rapidly losing steam. My vote is currently useless. I will be changing to Unforgiven_ve. His recent behavior is really undermining my previous judgment. ##Unvote ##Vote: Unforgiven_ve | ||
| ||
