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Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
May 30 2012 01:03 GMT
#1068
Hi everybody!

I am counting on people giving me a break to read the thread, so don't expect too much from me immediately. At least I am replacing in fairly early into the game.

It's about time I won a game so I will be putting in the effort here. The roster looks good and from my initial read some of the vets are looking pretty townie so we have no reason not to win.

Note: To help get an idea on people's thoughts, please ask me some specific questions. It is always hard when catching up to get a feel for people because the timing of posts is hard to work out. So fire away and I will do my best.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
May 30 2012 03:21 GMT
#1171
Still reading but for now can you guys slow down on the spam. It is really hard to catch up when there is a new page every two minutes. Try and condense your posts please.

Oh and VE, what happened to your suspicion of Kita?

I am having difficulty reconciling his Day 1 "lyncher" play with him being town and both you and MZ had him labelled as suspicious but he hasn't been mentioned since.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
May 30 2012 04:55 GMT
#1188
On May 30 2012 12:26 VisceraEyes wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 30 2012 08:15 VisceraEyes wrote:
There you have it. Nice work Matt.

Forumite had me fooled, though I guess since his target was scum that was going to be EZPZ to do. I was afraid of the assassin/lyncher needing to target scum, that was going to make finding them exceedingly hard since they could just scumhunt like normal. Thank God scum took care of it for us. ^^

Now, who's the lynch today? I'm liking a lynch inside of (Zealos, supersoft, Kitaman) presently. What does everyone else think?

He's on the radar, but I don't know if there's enough support for his lynch yet. As you say, no one is really mentioning him and aside from a few people thinking his play is "odd" it doesn't seem like many people find him suspicious. I'm trying to get a GOOD lynch to happen, not MY lynch. MY lynch would be Kita.


Given that Kita has gone after you it would be great if you could summarise your case against him. His play to me is double-sided. I can't understand the motivation behind the Lyncher thing but everything else he has done looks townie.

Secondly, regarding supersoft you wrote this but never actually posted your details.
On May 30 2012 04:40 VisceraEyes wrote:
In short, I think he's suspicious. I'll go into detail when I get to a computer but like you I've been underwhelmed with his posts since the flip and he was pseudo suspicious yesterday.


Especially the details about his pseudo suspicious behaviour. I read his nightime schenanigans as trying to avoid a shot. He went so completely wacko that it would be weird to believe he was being open about his intentions.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
May 30 2012 05:06 GMT
#1196
On May 30 2012 13:33 kitaman27 wrote:
The first player we should consider today is VisceraEyes. The entire day one cycle, VE has actively pushed a mafia agenda. He went out of his way to ensure that Toad, essentially a confirmed non-scum, would not be elected. He discredited Toad's canidacy using suspect logic and refused to budge on an issue that clearly was beneficial to town. VE explains that he opposed Toad being elected due to the ability of others to influence his decision making. Toad is not a player so incompetant that the risk of him being influenced via pms outweighs the ability to elect a non-scum into office. Firstly, the mayoral lynch took place before the mason power would be activated so this is not an issue. Secondly, Toad promised to not use his lynching power upon election. This is the word from a player who is almost certainly not mafia. VE is so opposed to the idea of Toad being elected, that he would rather believe that Toad is lying about his intentions. VE insists that he wants a town in office, but not Toad, as there are several other townies in the game. There is one problem with this statement, however. Toad is the only player who has role claimed. Rather than take advantage of this opportunity, he would rather risk the election of an unknown due to an irrelevant concern about manipulation of an ability he has promised not to use.


I noticed this too Kita but how does it make him scum? The role is pretty damn useless as scum would be sacrificing one of their own if they used it. Toad however is difficult to read and is not beyond doing things that look incredibly scummy. I can understand a certain trepidation in putting him into office. It is not like VE was advocating putting scum into the role. As you say Toad could be confirmed the next day and so it would make sense to use that as leverage to ensure scum don't get the role but it seems VE just wasn't comfortable with Toad being in a position of power. Why is that scum motivated and not a paranoid townie?

Show nested quote +
On May 28 2012 15:20 VisceraEyes wrote:
I mean, I spelled it out myself.

Okay, so I like Kita/Sinensis for scum so far...which is actually kinda disturbing, what do you think about 2 scum pretty much just claiming in thread like that?


The confidence coming from this post is not townlike. At this point, the only policies I have pushed is electing a candidate who hasn't announced their intentions for running for mayor and to elect Toad as pardoner. Sinensis has only pushed a policy lynch, which may have been a poor idea, but wasn't inherantly scummy. In response, makes a blanket statement about us claiming scum. Throughout the thread, VE has been asking players their opinion of other players, but has yet to produce a valid case against a player. He announces that I would be his prefered lynch, yet refuses to push it due to lack of support. If he was willing to push me yesterday, why back off today? You don't ignore your primary scum suspect because everyone else thinks he is town, you convince them with a compelling case. I was attacked primarily for my support of Toad, yet now that Toad has been confirmed as a mason, his opinion of me has not changed? Hopefully more to come in a bit.


This is more damning and is why I have asked him to respond. I agree that he should have pushed your case harder if he truly believed you were scum. Barely mentioning it after the night kill is not letting town get their way, it is abandoning your read for apparently no reason.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
May 30 2012 05:12 GMT
#1202
On May 30 2012 13:51 strongandbig wrote:
Also Also - Toad! great to hear that you actually could Mason someone. Let me ask you a question: can you explain a little bit about what your "anti-manipulation power" is? I guess it's okay if you don't want to so you can use it later in secret or w/e but if it was a lie it'd be fine to admit it imo now that we know the rest of your claim is true, as long as you explain it. It's just that something outlandish like a "power that keeps you from being manipulated by the person you're masoning with" doesn't really make sense to me, since that would require the host to jump into your PM convos somehow, and it's the main thing still making me doubt your claim.


Why would a townie ask this? It provides no useful information for town as we know Toad is a mason so who cares about what his magical power is. All this does is out more information to mafia. Rather than make them guess, you would rather Toad told them outright.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
May 30 2012 05:22 GMT
#1205
On May 30 2012 14:14 Mattchew wrote:
Btw i am reading along with prob's posts and they are awesome I <3 Prob (ps this could be our first game as town together?!)


Could be, depends if you're town or not. You're not making much sense

If I get your thinking right, it goes like this
  1. You're town and you claim a shot and only scum know that you were "not" shot by scum.
  2. SnB says you were shot by a vig
  3. Because he discounted the possibility of you being shot by scum, he knows you weren't shot by scum, and so is scum.
The problem is that this assumes you're town. In SnB's eyes, you looked like scum so of course any shot your way would come from a vig. I don't understand the basis of your trap and WBG is right to get pissed at you for lying about it.

I suggest we all grow up, drop the issue and lynch based on posting rather than one's interpretation of a failed trap.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
May 30 2012 05:29 GMT
#1212
On May 30 2012 14:23 sToFu wrote:
Hi, it'd be cool if we lessened the spam to make it easier to catch up on the thread. Thanks.

There's a couple things that I'm concerned about
1. Can anyone explain to me why supersoft was posting the (I mean no offense by this) dumbest stuff N1, and come daytime everyone effectively ignores it? Admittedly, he's not quite the scummiest player (Zealos), but I'd think it would still be worth discussing.

2. Why are we lynching gambit when the lynch provides little to no information. The same logic that applies to gambit largely applies to the other lurkers of this game - including me. Why gambit in particular, and what's the point of lynching a lurker when we are not only unsure if he's just inactive/bad or scum? Bugs seems to be avoiding the question.

3. Where's Wiggles? Did he post saying he would be gone? I don't recall seeing a post of his for a very long time.

Finally, I believe someone called me out on giving specifics about my reads and providing concrete evidence. My answers: scummiest is Zealos, but if I were compulsive vig, I would have hit supersoft, mostly just to get him to stop posting stupid stuff and bogging down the thread. Furthermore, I feel that, given supersoft's more numerous actions, his death and the subsequent flip would provide more info than Zealos. At the same time, however, Zealos is active enough to defend himself if it comes to that, which provides more information.


Hi there sToFu maybe I can shed some light on the matter.

Scum shoot at night. Scum want to shoot people who are unlikely to get lynched. Supersoft acted really dumb to look scummy so he didn't get shot. This post explains it
On May 30 2012 08:13 supersoft wrote:
i really hope you guys realize that my nightplay has different goals than my dayplay. -_-
Now I wasn't here for Day 1 and after reading the thread supersoft wasn't on my scum list. So please tell me, why do you think he is scum based off of his early play? Right now I have no feeling one way or the other and that is bad so any insight would be good.

@Supersoft - you were given a free ride to post like crap now please provide something of use.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
May 30 2012 05:43 GMT
#1220
On May 30 2012 14:32 kitaman27 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 30 2012 13:55 Probulous wrote:
On May 30 2012 12:26 VisceraEyes wrote:
On May 30 2012 08:15 VisceraEyes wrote:
There you have it. Nice work Matt.

Forumite had me fooled, though I guess since his target was scum that was going to be EZPZ to do. I was afraid of the assassin/lyncher needing to target scum, that was going to make finding them exceedingly hard since they could just scumhunt like normal. Thank God scum took care of it for us. ^^

Now, who's the lynch today? I'm liking a lynch inside of (Zealos, supersoft, Kitaman) presently. What does everyone else think?

He's on the radar, but I don't know if there's enough support for his lynch yet. As you say, no one is really mentioning him and aside from a few people thinking his play is "odd" it doesn't seem like many people find him suspicious. I'm trying to get a GOOD lynch to happen, not MY lynch. MY lynch would be Kita.


Given that Kita has gone after you it would be great if you could summarise your case against him. His play to me is double-sided. I can't understand the motivation behind the Lyncher thing but everything else he has done looks townie.


Hmm, you don't understand why I wouldn't want a lyncher elected?
I understand that fully and is not the problem I have with you bringing it up. You've been far more townie since then so I am not going to write it all up as I don't see the point. If someone brings up something else on you that I've missed than I might revisit it.

The role isn't useless as scum because a strong player can argue for the use of a pardon and the role kills us at lylo. As far as I can see, there was nothing to be paranoid about. Toad put himself in a situation where his word could be trusted and he gave his word that he wouldn't use the pardoner role. A paranoid townie is the one who doesn't pass on the opportunity to elect toad into office, because the other candidates may be scum.
To me this is all based on your opinion of Toad's reliability and I am not willing to lynch VE based on his reservations around Toad. For the record I agree with you that it makes sense to vote Toad in but I can understand someone not agreeing.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
May 30 2012 05:55 GMT
#1223
On May 30 2012 14:30 Mattchew wrote:
But my trap worked to perfection. I fail to see how I was scummier than WBG or MZ before the night post, so why are their claims taken at face value and mine not. I told the thread early on I would not be active, I have now been posting for almost 24 hours straight (no sleep or breaks) to get back involved in this game. Up until snb, ET was the only one to post suspicions about my shot claim+ Show Spoiler [ET post about my shot] +
On May 30 2012 08:32 EchelonTee wrote:
Mattchew the last KP, unless someone claims a medic protect. I'm curious why he got shot.
, however with both of them not knowing of WBG's claim there is a huge difference in the posts about my claimed hit. ET expressed curiosity as to why I was shot (because IMO he is honestly confused about scum shooting me) while SnB immediately looks for the vig that shot me. I think he was posting to find a vig to claim the shot because he knew it wasn't mafia's doing.


Ok Matt, I understand. The fact that you claimed your shot first and that he dismissed you as a possible scum shot is pretty bad. I thought you had claimed after the others but by my reading you were first. So in essence the question boils down to

"Why would someone believe that scum used all their kill point on Forumite and so Matt was shot by a vig; over Matt being shot by scum?"

Is that right?
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
May 30 2012 05:57 GMT
#1225
On May 30 2012 14:52 Mattchew wrote:
@Prob @Wiggles and @WBG (and everyone else really)
You can say my filter is weak, but I don't think anything about it screams scummy. I was simply unable to participate in the game until recently. You could go so far to say that I looked a little Blue, but if scum were to have shot me I believe they would have been just shooting at a relatively experienced player that was basically guaranteed to not be protected. If you think my filter looks that much worse than WBG and you believe his claim I would like to know why? I understand he subbed into the game having much less time to post, but that still does not make a difference when push comes to shove about the overall content of both of our filters.

Also, you can say that lying to town is bad. I agree most of the time, but I haven't heard an answer to "how this lie can hurt town or push an anti-town agenda?".

Another point is why would I, as scum, claim, knowing that MZ and WBG were shot and still alive and likely to (I see no reason they wouldn't) claim. I would have been the obvious choice for lynch for lying according to you all, and even if I wasn't I would have been sacrificing myself to an actual vig shot / next day lynch that I don't think has any benefit as scum.



Don't misrepresent my words I never said anything about you being scum. I said that SnB might have responded like he did even if he is town. In otherwords your trap was stupid.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
May 30 2012 05:59 GMT
#1226
On May 30 2012 14:55 kitaman27 wrote:
S&B and Manason are still sketchy. I want a more developed case from each of them that adds something to the thread.


What does this mean? Are they scum or dumb town?
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
May 30 2012 06:09 GMT
#1234
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=336250&currentpage=62#1229

Good god Matt calm down. That point of that post was that SnB might have thought you weren't town. No need to get your panties in a knot.

On May 30 2012 14:59 Mattchew wrote:nope cause i think MZ claimed a hit sometime in there. Its why did he assume the doublestack of forum (or assume another unclaimed hit) and put me in the vig target only list... Maybe this is just me but if I were an observer of the situation I wouldn't care about who was hit by what until the claimed hits were greater than the mafia KP. This wasn't the case
Ok here is the order of events
  1. Matt claims shot
  2. Meapak claim hit
  3. SnB questions Matt's claim
So at that point there were two shots claimed plus a kill, totalling three which accounts for all scum KP. So yeah, odd he would assume vig shot when there was plenty of scum KP available.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
May 30 2012 06:18 GMT
#1236
Dear stronandbig

RE: You're attempts to ruin my lovely town

It is regrettable that I have to bring this up but some of your posting has been somewhat lacklustre. This post in particular worries me.

On May 30 2012 13:51 strongandbig wrote:
Also Also - Toad! great to hear that you actually could Mason someone. Let me ask you a question: can you explain a little bit about what your "anti-manipulation power" is? I guess it's okay if you don't want to so you can use it later in secret or w/e but if it was a lie it'd be fine to admit it imo now that we know the rest of your claim is true, as long as you explain it. It's just that something outlandish like a "power that keeps you from being manipulated by the person you're masoning with" doesn't really make sense to me, since that would require the host to jump into your PM convos somehow, and it's the main thing still making me doubt your claim.


Please can you explain to me what information you intended to gain from this question? I fear you aim to ruin our atmosphere and I have a lovely picnic planned for the weekend.

Lots of lynching love

Probulous

PS: As a little motivation here's a vote that isn't moving until you answer

##Vote: strongandbig
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
May 30 2012 23:29 GMT
#1476
On May 30 2012 23:42 supersoft wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 30 2012 23:08 Mattchew wrote:
On May 30 2012 22:45 supersoft wrote:
okay how many people took bullets?

MZ took a hit
wherebugsgo took a hit

both of them were saved. Forumite took a hit aswell. Vigs who shot one of them must claim now.

On May 30 2012 09:11 Mattchew wrote:
Hey guys... I wasn't shot... But strongandbig fell into my trap cause he knew this (Aka his team didn't shoot me)... If the trap failed it would have made scum believe there was a vig shot already used or an sk or something (Aka giving them fake game info) so it seemed like a win-win


this is so strange. Might be scum panicking after he saw that no townplayer died.

I didn't even wait for WBG to claim his hit, how is that panicking... Did you read the post in context to the entire thread or just in my filter or quoted somewhere?


fuck you okay? I hate to deal with idiots like you. Of course i read that shit in the context. Noone claimes so far. You claimed before any PMs went out that told people they were hit. Scumteam know who they hit. obviously they dont have to wait for claims to know who was hit. WTF dude.


@Supersoft, I know Matthew mentioned this but you never answered. How do you know that Matt claimed the hit before the hit PMs were sent out? He claimed after the Day post so my assumption would be that people knew if they had been hit. WBG and MZ never said anything about the PMs being late.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
May 30 2012 23:34 GMT
#1480
It's bugging me because he is sure of it to the point that he uses it to bash Matt.

Maybe it is nothing but I would like answer.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
May 30 2012 23:39 GMT
#1483
Or Cwave?
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
May 30 2012 23:48 GMT
#1491
Can someone link me the case against Zealos.

He looks like an overwhelmed newb to me Is this something a newb scum would suggest?
On May 28 2012 18:34 Zealos wrote:
Thoughts on Mayor: If possible, would the best mayor be the one that chooses the day1 lynch based off of a vote from town? Seems like this would be the most pro-town play?

Particularly given the advice wasn't followed. Yes he has been lurky as hell but so have other posters and he seems geniunely frustrated
On May 30 2012 05:48 Zealos wrote:
I struggle to see why people think me defending Toad is scummy lol.
I am a townie, because of this, I am posting under the assumption that everyone knows I'm town. Hence why, if I defend someone, its because I think they deserve to be defended. If I post accusations, it will be because I think they are scummy. I'm sorry I haven't posted a great deal yet, like I said, my exam is tomorrow, and so I'll be able to post more then.


What is the case besides him lurking?
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
May 30 2012 23:50 GMT
#1493
On May 31 2012 08:45 supersoft wrote:
solve of the mysterious riddle you struggle with: I thought your mason PM would be the first PM that goes out because everyone waited for that in the thread and Greymist obviously should have noticed that.
Don't hype that shit.


Thanks, that is all I wanted. Like I said it was bugging me that is all.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
May 30 2012 23:54 GMT
#1497
On May 31 2012 08:50 VisceraEyes wrote:
Evidence? There's resistance. Solution? Kill 'em. Let's kill 'em. Together.


You can do better than that. If you want my vote, convince me.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
May 31 2012 00:03 GMT
#1502
On May 31 2012 08:55 supersoft wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 31 2012 08:50 Probulous wrote:
On May 31 2012 08:45 supersoft wrote:
solve of the mysterious riddle you struggle with: I thought your mason PM would be the first PM that goes out because everyone waited for that in the thread and Greymist obviously should have noticed that.
Don't hype that shit.


Thanks, that is all I wanted. Like I said it was bugging me that is all.


i have a different explanation. You were blue fishing weren't you? Docs and Jailers should get a PM if the save something, too right?


Face meet palm



How exactly is asking how you "knew" that hit PMs were late when you weren't hit, role fishing?
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
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