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Season 4 player data

Forum Index > SC2 General
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muffley
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States280 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-12-26 21:36:16
December 26 2011 16:40 GMT
#1
Doing a similar thing to my Season 1/2 and Season 1/2/3 data dumps for season 4.

edit: Data collected with my own battle.net spider (it's not very user-friendly).

Keep in mind, this only tracks ladder games, custom games are not looked at in any way. All data was updated at least 12 hours prior to the end of each season, numbers should be considered low by 0-1% based on trends of new players and games per day.

us is North America and Latin America, eu is Europe and Russia, kr is Korea and Taiwan, cn is China, sea is South-East Asia and Oceania.
(S2 is Season 2, S3 is Season 3, S4 is Season 4)


Total players that placed in the 1v1 gametype, and players that placed in any ladder gametype. Season 3 data is time-modified (see bottom of post for details).
	   1V1 PLAYERS               ALL PLAYERS
S3 S4 % diff S3 S4 % diff
us 335,388 279,119 (83.2%) 484,411 418,949 (86.5%)
eu 319,146 268,808 (84.2%) 441,186 387,052 (87.7%)
kr 133,279 132,729 (99.6%) 207,986 207,067 (99.6%)
cn 79,475 49,991 (62.9%) 98,446 63,600 (64.6%)
sea 34,328 27,812 (81.0%) 48,570 41,110 (84.6%)


Here are graphs of players over time.
Brown is season 2, silver season 3, gold season 4. The difference in season lengths is clear here.
+ Show Spoiler [Graphs!] +
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Here are players with at least 26 wins in 1v1, and all gametypes for seasons 2, 3, and 4. Percents are comparing season 4 to 3. On average, each player has played 50 games, but more platinum/diamond/masters players are represented compared to bronze/silver, because losses cannot be factored in. Seasons 2 and 3 data have been time-modified (see bottom of post for details).
          1v1 players                          all players
2 3 4 % diff 2 3 4 % diff
us 114,521 106,081 80,346 (75.7%) 162,919 174,745 172,407 (98.7%)
eu 118,187 107,432 83,381 (77.6%) 164,559 175,381 172,464 (98.3%)
kr 41,787 45,974 39,774 (86.5%) 53,410 71,801 79,113 (110.2%)
cn 67,233 30,940 19,275 (62.3%) 50,599 29,735 31,903 (107.3%)
sea 12,889 10,845 7,988 (73.7%) 17,320 17,216 16,517 (95.9%)


Those percents remain similar across the whole range of games played. Below are graphs of similar data, between 0 wins (everybody) and 200 wins.
Brown is season 2, silver is season 3, gold is season 4. Data of seasons 2 and 3 are still time-modified.
+ Show Spoiler [More Graphs!] +
[image loading]
[image loading]

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Attrition rate
This consists of players that played in previous seasons, who returned in season 4. This is raw data, not taking into account the different season lengths.
      total players   ------------returning-------------
s3 s4 | s2/3 s3 %s2/3 %s3 | #new %new
us 551,524 418,949 367,333 346,153 (47.32%) (62.76%) 37,164 (10.74%)
eu 506,616 387,052 345,480 326,502 (49.53%) (64.45%) 30,604 (9.37%)
kr 248,954 207,067 166,933 156,859 (48.19%) (63.01%) 29,688 (18.93%)
cn 113,701 63,600 48,881 44,989 (16.42%) (39.57%) 14,719 (32.72%)
sea 55,633 41,110 36,859 34,538 (45.40%) (62.08%) 2,712 (7.85%)
This one's moderately complicated, here's a short explanation.
In North America there were 418,949 players in season 4. 62.76% of players that played in season 3, also played in season 4. 47.32% of players that played in seasons 2 or 3, also played in season 4. 10.74% of players in season 4 did not play in seasons 1, 2, or 3.

Total new players: 114,887
New players average per day: 2,064
Compare to the season 3 new players: 240,505 (average 2,646 per day)


edit2: On request, a table of which league a player was in in season 3, if they did not return in season 4, from no 1v1 games, to bronze, to grandmaster.
Remember that Battle.net splits the active players evenly into bronze, silver, gold, plat at 20% each, 18% in diamond, and 2% in masters.
     total    no1v1  bronze silver  gold   plat  diam  mast  gmast
us 205,371 86,740 35,609 29,840 24,760 18,977 7,365 2,065 15
eu 180,114 70,772 41,461 27,738 21,182 12,787 4,791 1,375 8
kr 92,095 44,503 14,777 14,766 9,662 5,718 2,006 654 9
cn 68,712 15,622 20,912 11,985 7,934 6,363 3,952 1,907 37
sea 21,095 8,269 5,469 2,885 1,969 1,466 747 278 12

total no1v1 bronze silver gold plat diam mast gmast
ALL 567,387 225,906 118,228 87,214 65,507 45,311 18,861 6,279 81


fin

What is "time-modified" data?
Season 2 lasted almost a month longer than season 3, which lasted 5 weeks longer than season 4. The numbers for games played cannot match up properly due to this time difference. I modify player numbers based on how many people I had logged at a time matching up to the length of season 4.
For example, Korea actually has 56,393 people with 26 or more wins, while my numbers in Table 2 state 41,787. Season 4 lasted 55 days, while season 2 lasted 118 days. (118 - 55 = 63) At the end of season 2, Korea had 221,819 players. 63 days prior to the end of season 2, Korea had 164,370 players, which is 74.100956blahblah % of its end-season amount. Multiply 56,393 (real number of >= 26 wins) by this percent, and you get the value in the table of 41,787.
Look at the first set of graphs (all players over time per season), and ignore everything to the right of the shortest curve. That's baseically what this process does.


tl;dr Total players drop on par with previous seasons, Korea holding strong. More(ish) active players, fewer active 1v1 players. 114,887 new players worldwide in the last 8 weeks. The new season starts at Christmas, will be intresting to see what happens.
zyce
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
United States649 Posts
December 26 2011 16:43 GMT
#2
Thanks for gathering and posting these statistics, they're interesting to read.
Beauty is not the goal of competitive sports, but high-level sports are a prime venue for the expression of human beauty. The relation is roughly that of courage to war.
Whynaut
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Canada367 Posts
December 26 2011 16:46 GMT
#3
Weird/sad to see China's numbers drop so far, so quickly. From what I understand, Bilizzard's distribution model is different in China, but I'm not sure on the details (it's a subscription-like thing, right?) I guess that may be coming back to bite them.

IMNotMvp
Profile Joined May 2011
Korea (South)530 Posts
December 26 2011 16:46 GMT
#4
very nice
bananajk
Profile Joined April 2011
Germany92 Posts
December 26 2011 16:49 GMT
#5
Where do you get all this informations from ?
fragster.de | [F_]ragster
TheLindyHop
Profile Joined March 2011
United States51 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-12-26 16:52:39
December 26 2011 16:50 GMT
#6
I'm from the US.
looks like I'll need to get a KR version of SC after the next 46 seasons =\

Also, I think it would be neat, if someone fit equations to all these lines. =D
I feel like some natural logarithms get to be used somewhere...
Starcraft is hard >_<
swordboy
Profile Joined August 2011
Canada299 Posts
December 26 2011 16:52 GMT
#7
On December 27 2011 01:46 Whynaut wrote:
Weird/sad to see China's numbers drop so far, so quickly. From what I understand, Bilizzard's distribution model is different in China, but I'm not sure on the details (it's a subscription-like thing, right?) I guess that may be coming back to bite them.



SC2 in China still charge on a monthly basis and don't even have a full edition of the game for sale, that can explain a lot.
MarineKing | ThorZaIN | IMMvp | MMA | Sase | Sen | Kas
Whynaut
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Canada367 Posts
December 26 2011 16:54 GMT
#8
On December 27 2011 01:52 swordboy wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 27 2011 01:46 Whynaut wrote:
Weird/sad to see China's numbers drop so far, so quickly. From what I understand, Bilizzard's distribution model is different in China, but I'm not sure on the details (it's a subscription-like thing, right?) I guess that may be coming back to bite them.



SC2 in China still charge on a monthly basis and don't even have a full edition of the game for sale, that can explain a lot.


Thank you!
Recognizable
Profile Blog Joined December 2011
Netherlands1552 Posts
December 26 2011 16:57 GMT
#9
On December 27 2011 01:52 swordboy wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 27 2011 01:46 Whynaut wrote:
Weird/sad to see China's numbers drop so far, so quickly. From what I understand, Bilizzard's distribution model is different in China, but I'm not sure on the details (it's a subscription-like thing, right?) I guess that may be coming back to bite them.



SC2 in China still charge on a monthly basis and don't even have a full edition of the game for sale, that can explain a lot.


Yeah and apparently they don't even want it on a montly basis but more like on a weekly or daily basis right?

MartynX
Profile Joined May 2011
United Kingdom122 Posts
December 26 2011 16:59 GMT
#10
Korea will be growing a lot with all of the foreign players getting accounts and travelling out there to practise.
muffley
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States280 Posts
December 26 2011 17:00 GMT
#11
On December 27 2011 01:49 GerBanana wrote:
Where do you get all this informations from ?

Back when the starcraft 2 battle.net pages were put up at the end of beta, I was unemployed so I wrote a spider to gather information from it. I run it every so often to gather data. It's on sourceforge, but it's seriously not a simple thing to use.
nerfherder182
Profile Joined December 2011
53 Posts
December 26 2011 17:02 GMT
#12
what are the average players who quit a day
mememolly
Profile Joined December 2011
4765 Posts
December 26 2011 17:03 GMT
#13
On December 27 2011 01:59 MartynX wrote:
Korea will be growing a lot with all of the foreign players getting accounts and travelling out there to practise.


a handful of accounts won't make that much difference
swordboy
Profile Joined August 2011
Canada299 Posts
December 26 2011 17:08 GMT
#14
The number of all players with 25+ wins on cn for s3 is wrong i guess, it's less than the number of 1v1.
MarineKing | ThorZaIN | IMMvp | MMA | Sase | Sen | Kas
Primadog
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States4411 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-12-26 17:11:03
December 26 2011 17:10 GMT
#15
CN numbers are a bit shocking, considering the strength they showed at WCG recently. I understand SC2Ratings rely on web/network searching, so is it simply the lack of initial data?
Thank God and gunrun.
muffley
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States280 Posts
December 26 2011 17:11 GMT
#16
On December 27 2011 02:08 swordboy wrote:
The number of all players with 25+ wins on cn for s3 is wrong i guess, it's less than the number of 1v1.

See details on what time-modified data does. Since s3 was 5 weeks shorter than s4, I compensate somewhat for that since many fewer people would have x number of wins after 55 days as opposed to 90 days.
swordboy
Profile Joined August 2011
Canada299 Posts
December 26 2011 17:25 GMT
#17
On December 27 2011 02:11 muffley wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 27 2011 02:08 swordboy wrote:
The number of all players with 25+ wins on cn for s3 is wrong i guess, it's less than the number of 1v1.

See details on what time-modified data does. Since s3 was 5 weeks shorter than s4, I compensate somewhat for that since many fewer people would have x number of wins after 55 days as opposed to 90 days.


nvm, my mistake.

On December 27 2011 01:57 Recognizable wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 27 2011 01:52 swordboy wrote:
On December 27 2011 01:46 Whynaut wrote:
Weird/sad to see China's numbers drop so far, so quickly. From what I understand, Bilizzard's distribution model is different in China, but I'm not sure on the details (it's a subscription-like thing, right?) I guess that may be coming back to bite them.



SC2 in China still charge on a monthly basis and don't even have a full edition of the game for sale, that can explain a lot.


Yeah and apparently they don't even want it on a montly basis but more like on a weekly or daily basis right?



The problem is the monthly basis is the only way of charging in China, different people will have different demand. Monthly basis is very inconvenient so that many progamers and active players in China go to other servers and drives less active players away quickly.
MarineKing | ThorZaIN | IMMvp | MMA | Sase | Sen | Kas
SeAK
Profile Joined September 2010
Canada69 Posts
December 26 2011 17:36 GMT
#18
I wonder how many of the active players are just the same people with smurf accounts
FLiPNoTiK
Profile Joined May 2007
United States62 Posts
December 26 2011 17:38 GMT
#19
Muffley, Play more Starcraft bro.
muffley
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States280 Posts
December 26 2011 17:46 GMT
#20
On December 27 2011 02:38 FLiPNoTiK wrote:
Muffley, Play more Starcraft bro.

ookayyyyyyyyy
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