EPTIf you are planning to start before that, I would then prefer to sign up as a backup.
TL Mafia XXXIX
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Eternalmisfit
United States643 Posts
If you are planning to start before that, I would then prefer to sign up as a backup. | ||
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Eternalmisfit
United States643 Posts
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Eternalmisfit
United States643 Posts
On accusation of Irish and follow-up I do not buy on the initial accusation of redtooth that Irish is scum just because he said that he was looking forward to play with 3-4 people he knew from before. That by itself is a rather weak case and does not give a scum-signal. The strong response of Irish on chaoser's vote is slightly more scummy to me. But, what seems scummy to me was chaos13's strong defense of Irish. The way I interpret is that both are mafia and are looking out for each other (or) chaos13 is just looking out for Irish just because they know each other from before but they do not know each other's alignment. At this point, the evidence based on posting is rather weak for me to vote on either of them and I won't go beyond just a FoS on them. I am more concerned about the second possible interpretation. I think it would preferable that people defend others on basis of post analysis, activity, behavior on thread, and so on than standing up for folks just because of bias due to prior acquaintanceship. In the current case, if chaos13 is town, he cannot be sure of Irish's alignment at this point of time (barring methods breaking rules of the game) and thus he should leave Irish to make a defense for himself from such a weak accusation. Coming to the defense on him just sends scum vibes to others and if he is really town, it will just mislead the town. | ||
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Eternalmisfit
United States643 Posts
People who are MIA till this point: jaminz VarpuliS aidnai Mig Takuna Amber[Light] GGQ Beneather VarpuliS - I would like to hear your thoughts on posts till now. You were quite active as town in Surprising Normal Mafia and seems surprising to not see you post much here. I don't believe that he is necessarily scum but in order to pressure him to post. ##Vote: VarpuliS | ||
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Eternalmisfit
United States643 Posts
Kurumi Kurumi analysis (he/him refers to Kurumi – all other players are listed by name) + Show Spoiler + I thought I will have any heavy read by the time I am back and game starts but.. the only thing I saw was CHAOS. Saying that,while someone says this,posting some rules being in the other thread,just doing a contribution without any value His first post in the thread which deliberately makes it seems more chaotic that it really is. Frankly, apart from some sporadic arguments about guide posts and really weak accusations, nothing has happened in this thread till now. This post tries to blow things out of proportion and tries to make town more panicky and fearful. + Show Spoiler + Your attacks on Chaoser and redtooth are not supported by any evidence than nitpicking,yes they are posting without much value,but we are just starting off. Drop Chaoser discussion as scum. He will be probably shot this night because he is good at Mafia and is staying really pro-town. It is good to see some lurkers waking up! This seems out of place as it lacks any substance at all. He tries to brown-nose chaoser by strongly supporting chaoser as pro-town without giving any valid reasons of why chaoser cannot be scum. This seems scummy to me since a mafia will know chaoser’s alignment and can use this kind of post to either (a) help chaoser’s town creds if chaoser is mafia or (b) try to get in good books of chaoser as chaoser seems to be a strong pro-town force at the moment. Unless I see strong justification from him about this assertion, this seems a major scum tell to me + Show Spoiler + Chaoser,You wouldn't make any effort to defend Yourself if they were onto something,note that Irish backed off into the shadows,while You try to do something. You have two different approaches to play. Sandroba tries to play the Town Hero,he "has" the sense! Chaos13 does not know what is going on anymore. Again, a lot of different statements which do not have any kind of evidence supporting it. I do not see any signs of sandroba playing town hero or chaos13 being clueless. I want to hear his thoughts on why this is the case. Also, he tries to go back on his analysis on chaoser since he was questioned about it between his last few posts. + Show Spoiler + Oh,also I am voting on Irish Punk. Funny how he and chaos have 13 in the end of their nicknames. By same argument, why not vote for chaoser since chaos13 and chaoser have chaos in their name. A rather weak post trying to piggy bank on the early day accusations on Irish. It seems like a diversionary tactic. + Show Spoiler + I just note that his behaviour is different from Irish_Punk's and it looks pro-town,because of trying to make party going It is really hard to make out who he is referring to but it either refers to chaos13 or chaoser from my understanding in which case again they is lack of consistency in the posting. + Show Spoiler + I just find his activeness into lurking suspicious. Why would You stop contributing when You have nothing to fear of? Not much to analyze in this post. (assuming it refers to chaos13) + Show Spoiler + Chaoser,did You really grab my crappy contribution posts from SC2 to Mafia forums? I did not vote because of coincidence,I just saw it. When I stared my third post I knew that it will go wrong and I will be accused of scum. Bringing more chaos into Day 1 than there was wasn't my intention. + Show Spoiler + Thanks Chaoser,I think I did not see that tip in Newbie thread. I wasn't too cautious,right,but even insane thought can turn out to be true. I have no idea how to reply. The entire series of posts seem to show inconsistency and lack of rationale behind the arguments. On top, a lot of the posts are vague as to who they refer to and seem to be directed towards creating confusion in the thread. I expect Kurumi to be more specific in his future posts and provide explanation to why he went from arguing chaoser being pro-town to raising a FoS and then back to chaoser being pro-town (assuming I understood it correctly which again is an issue with his style of posting). On this note, it would be helpful for the town if people are more specific in their posts rather than being vague as vague statements (which can be misunderstood or misinterpreted) will create confusion and mistrust among the town-folk. Kurumi's series of post, at the very least, is an example of that. | ||
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Eternalmisfit
United States643 Posts
On May 05 2011 03:18 Kurumi wrote: No,I am just saying that using names all over again is unnatural for me. + Show Spoiler + I just note that his behaviour is different from Irish_Punk's and it looks pro-town,because of trying to make party going It is quite unclear to me who you referring to out here. And there are a couple of places where I can infer who you might be referring to but still comes off a bit vague. But if you read my analysis, the inconsistency did not stem from not using names but due to lack of any analysis of why you thought someone was town/mafia and also due to switching the affiliation of chaoser twice in a series of three posts. Also, the scum vibe comes from a strong assertion of chaoser being pro-town which is not evident apart from the fact that he and redtooth posted some guidelines for them. Since chaoser is a vet compared to the people out here, posting a town guide and acting pro-town might as well as a good tactic as scum to appear as town. In any case, I do not have any specific read on chaoser though. | ||
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Eternalmisfit
United States643 Posts
On May 05 2011 00:19 Eternalmisfit wrote: I am not too sold on lynching inactives in this large a setup but I do agree that we should keep tabs on who was actively posting and reading the thread. People who are MIA till this point: jaminz VarpuliS aidnai Mig Takuna Amber[Light] GGQ Beneather That was the original list. Since then Amber[Light], aidnai, and jaminz have made a post each. Updated list Mig Takuna GGQ Beneather Keep in mind that these people are the ones who have not posted at all. There might be other folks who might be lurking by making a token post. Also are we going to take the route of weeding out bad/inactive townies or rely on posting for the first lynch? We need to be really careful about lynching habits. I remember during the very first mafia games we would go for inactives and those were actually the players with blue roles. This is a problem though as it's not really the towns fault, but instead the people who have these blue roles that need to keep active. Lynching a blue is more painful to watch than anything else in mafia. As I posted earlier, I am not too keen on lynching a lurker/inactive on the first day in a 30 man setup as a blue kill would hurt us quite a bit. However, if we have someone in the game who has not posted/voted till somewhat close to the deadline and the town cannot reach a consensus on a mafia lynch, I would recommend lynching the inactive person since he was going to be mod-killed anyways. That is my 2 cents on the issue but it would nice to hear thoughts from more experienced players about it. | ||
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Eternalmisfit
United States643 Posts
Sacrificing 1 inactive player to hit [potentially] 0 mafia is bad. Ignoring 1 inactive player to hit [potentially] 1 mafia is a pretty good deal. I think you misunderstood my intent in that post. I was more so pointing towards a scenario where the town is split in 2 or 3-way on deciding who to lynch. I was wondering whether lynching an inactive would be a reasonable in that scenario or not? In case of strong scummy behavior or a majority of town believing in someone being scum, I would be all for voting that person for lynching. | ||
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Eternalmisfit
United States643 Posts
On May 05 2011 06:46 Cthsazsa wrote: I'll give my thoughts so far on this. I've noticed a lot of finger-pointing going around. A good example would be of KillerSOS qucikly criticizing Rising_Pheonix's post as spam, even though all he did was give his viewpoint on the current situation? Sandroba is very quick to accuse people as being scum. As a few people have already said, Kurumi's posts are strange. It seemed like that at first he was trying to attack chaoser, and then started claiming him to be a good pro-townie? AirBlade's post instantly looked like anti-town. He was suggesting that we lynch Kurumi, and then he said that even if Kurumi is a townie, it's still okay. As I said earlier, right now all we're doing is pointing fingers and forcing people into corners to make them look suspicious. I still haven't seen a good, legitimate reason for voting off someone yet. Sandroba was quite finger-happy in Surprisingly Normal Mini Mafia as well where he was a DT. Now, this does not necessitate that he is town but his play-style in consistent with that game at the very least. I am quite suspicious of Kurumi as he spammed the hell out of this thread with mostly meaningless posts. I was going to give him the benefit of doubt of him being a young kid or being not comfortable in English for his mostly incoherent posting, but he made a rather coherent analysis post as his last post of the day. Since his last post suggests that he is quite capable of making reasonable posts, his other posts seem scummy to me written in order to create confusion and derail discussion. But again, I have never been in a mafia game with him and am not sure of his mafia play habits. I agree with AirBlade seeming anti-town. I am also for voting and lynching Kurumi if I think that he is scum (which seems probable to me at this point) but I would not vote/lynch him just because he posts horribly. This might be a lapse in judgment or scum trying to get a townie killed. FoS: AirBladeOrange | ||
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Eternalmisfit
United States643 Posts
Analysis of AirBladeOrange + Show Spoiler + I think this long of a post is more suspicious than anything irish punk dude said. First post – Suspicion on Chaoser. No rationale provided. + Show Spoiler + I don't like this post. I never like it when a townie tries to end discussion. The town should always encourage discussion. However, Chaoser does not seem to support Kurumi at all. It seems like Kurumi could be trying to defend his mafia buddy Chaoser but Chaoser is being very serious about not defending Kurumi at all. Maybe Kurumi just made a bad mistake that Chaoser is trying to distance himself from it in order to not be involved if Kurumi turns out to be mafia. Chaoser even did a little investigation on Kurumi's other TL posts which is very interesting. Chaoser is a good player which nobody should forget. I believe he has the potential to be a great townie or a great mafia player. Eternalmisfit did a good analysis of Kurumi as well. I think the worst part about him is his posting method. What's up with that? At least if we lynch him and he flips town, we won't have to attempt to read those type of posts anymore. I agree with your overall assessment of Kurumi and I see him at least as of right now being most likely to be mafia. This is my third mafia game. I played haunted mafia a while ago and I had no idea what was going on the entire game. Then I just played Brown Bear's mafia game in which I was a mafia goon. DropBear, Coagulation, and GMarshal were all on my team. Post 2 (after I made my analysis of Kurumi). The bolded statement is what makes people suspicious of him. In my opinion, it can be possibly a scum trying to get a townie lynched. But since he is going after Kurumi who has sent some scum vibes himself and also this by itself is not sufficient proof, it cannot be deduced directly that he is scum. I still plan to keep a close look in his future posts. + Show Spoiler + Holy shit. I was kidding about lynching Kurumi for his posting style. Look at his posts. Where are the good ones Irish Punk is claiming exist? Back-tracking on the bolded quote as a joke. The second part of the post is interesting as it raises a valid point. Irish Punk supported Kurumi’s good posts which were non-existent (imo) and thus this crates a complicated relationship between the three people most suspected at this point. + Show Spoiler + Please point out his good posts. Preferably the ones that make sense and are not about Lost. Again, a valid post in view of how Kurumi and Irish started to bandwagon on AirBlade. All in all, apart from the ‘joke’ of lynching townies with bad writing habits, there is no visible scum signs from AirBlade. Thus, among the three suspected, he seems least suspicious. | ||
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Eternalmisfit
United States643 Posts
I am going to vote for Kurumi for now based on his posting which seems rather scum-like to me (apart from his last post which was the only half-decent one). It is placeholder vote for now as there can be future developments in this thread and also I am still willing to give him benefit of doubt provided he explains his style/content of posts. The list of suspicious people imo: Irish_Punk13 - I am not too strongly sold on chaoser's theory of him strongly reacting to accusation. However, his defense of Kurumi seems suspicious to me. AirBladeOrange - I probably won't go as far as to paint him scum but he is someone I will keep an eye on. redtooth - He came up strong in the start of thread, posted guides for new folks, made baseless accusations to start voting, but went MIA since then. It seems like he wanted to boost his pro-town cred early. I would like hear his viewpoint on the rest of the thread. If he stays lurking like this, he comes out suspicious to me. On May 05 2011 11:23 Jackal58 wrote: Stop for a second guys. Everybody that has been placed on your individual scumlists are pretty much noobs. If you think Node put together a scum team of all noobs you need to rethink who you are pushing. GGQ where are you? The current list is not necessarily the entirety of the scum lists. Obviously, it is more likely for new scum players to slip up or drop hints of being scum than the vets. Thus, the lists posted till now do not exclude the possibility than someone such as you, chaoser, redtooth, or kitaman are not scum. The current lists merely represent the fact that none of the them (if they are mafia) have slipped up clearly till now. | ||
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Eternalmisfit
United States643 Posts
Quite a lot of the accusations against Irish are close to grasping at straws. I disagree on his defense against early chaoser/redtooth accusations being scum-tells. However, there is some scummy behavior when he tried to hop on the AO bandwagon and stated Kurumi made some good posts. In light of one decent scum-tell and some rather weak/non-existent scum-tells from Irish, and lack of clear scum-tells from most other people, Irish makes a good candidate for a lynch. Does that mean that I am 100% sure that he is mafia? No This only means that he is highly probable of being mafia. I can make a similar case against Kurumi as well. In both these cases, the two accused of being scum have shown odd behavior. On top, both of them descended into lurking after accusing AirBlade. I would have expected them to be more active after starting the case against AirBlade. At this point, I would like to see them post again and defend their posts and accusations of AirBlade. My current vote on Kurumi is to pressure him to stop his nonsense posting which is derailing the discussion, and provide an explanation for his voting. At this point of time, I do not think anyone can be painted as completely pro-town which even includes the people providing detailed analysis since we have no concrete evidence to go-to and most discussion is based on interpretation and perceived intent of someone's post. Also, the more the discussion is heading along in this thread, the more I feel that lynching Irish might as well be a good idea. As a lot of people in this thread have stated, Kurumi and Irish are prime candidates for their odd behavior. And then there are a few people (e.g. red) that have defended them relatively strongly. Thus, Irish makes a good lynch candidate as he has shown scum-vibes in his posts, and his flipping either red or green will allow the town to ascertain the orientation of a lot of people (redtooth's defense and chaoser's borderline tunneling). | ||
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Eternalmisfit
United States643 Posts
![[image loading]](http://imgur.com/QrdnSl&jEcjA) People accusing/FoS/Voting others ![[image loading]](http://imgur.com/QrdnS&jEcjAl) How to read this chart Every player has a number against him. Green number on the column of a player means defense or town call for player # by this player Red number on the column means accusation or mafia call for player # by this player Bold and deep color represents multiple occasions of the said event i.e. strong support/attack This chart is applicable till Takuna's first post on page 33 (not including it) The purpose behind this is to analyze potential relationships between different people which will come into play after we people flip after lynches/deaths. I will post a more detailed analysis with my thoughts based on this within 30-60 mins. | ||
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Eternalmisfit
United States643 Posts
I am having trouble getting the images to show up so I am posting the imgur links directly. http://imgur.com/jEcjA http://imgur.com/QrdnS | ||
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Eternalmisfit
United States643 Posts
On May 06 2011 02:55 Forumite wrote: Very interesting numbers, thanks for gathering them. If you accept advice, you may have a bit low threshold on defending, but I might be wrong, defending and picking apart a weak argument are not the same thing. May I suggest an inverted table on the second one, where you show who each player have been accused of being scum by? The short-coming of this analysis is that I have had to use discretion in deciding which lies where and there might be some inherent bias of how I perceive some of the posts. Thus, it is important to read these numbers with a grain of salt. | ||
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Eternalmisfit
United States643 Posts
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Eternalmisfit
United States643 Posts
On May 06 2011 04:28 orgolove wrote: Oh wow. I didn't even realize it was chaoser himself that made the spreadsheet. Ugh. Hmm.... For the record, it was me who made the spreadsheet. I was unable to link the pictures properly so chaoser later posted the images based on my links. Unfortunately, I did not save the spreadsheet after making the images from them. Also, the fact that someone did an analysis does not mean he/she is not scum. Now, if that analysis turns up correct on a flip might suggest that he/she has town/mafia-creds. But, at this point, there is no such evidence for anyone. | ||
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Eternalmisfit
United States643 Posts
The people who voted for him: sandroba - one of the first ones to accuse Kurumi. MIA since then chaos13 - Voted for Kurumi was bringing spam in the discussion and later defended his vote by saying that the posting style did not change. ilovejonn - suspicious of Kurumi for inane posting. He makes a post just 4 min before the deadline saying he wanted to change his vote but wont since it is pointless. This seems suspicious since he has not posted any FoS on anyone else apart from Irish/Kurumi. It seems like a scum trying to get town-cred since he knows Kurumi will flip town in a few minutes. sinani206 - bandwagon vote on Kurumi. Forumite - If he was scum, he would know that Kurumi is town and thus, there is no point switching his vote near the end to Kurumi. It was all but decided that Kurumi was going to be lynched and he could have stayed off the radar by not voting for him at that point. VarpuliS - Made a strong case against Kurumi. Eternalmisfit - Made the initial case against Kurumi and has FoS/argued against Kurumi throughout. AirbladeOrange - Joked about going for Kurumi even if he is town because of his posting style. Has consistently FoS Kurumi GGQ - not too many posts to go by. Made a couple of posts in suspicion of Kurumi and then voted for him orgolove - tunnels redtooth throughout the day but votes for Kurumi w/o explanation Mig - not too many posts to go by. Made a couple of posts in suspicion of Kurumi and then voted for him Amber[LighT]- not too many posts to go by. Made a post in suspicion of Kurumi and then voted for him Beneather - Again, no explanation of his vote. Also, he made a post about what is an 'inactive' in context of mafia and then acts as a perfect example of that. ------------- @ilovejohn It is interesting that you are claiming me to be scum for doing the exact things you did: 1. Made a post-by-post analysis of someone. 2. Thought Kurumi & AirBlade were suspicious based on their incoherent posting and suggesting to lynch a townie posts, respectively. Also, I do not share your viewpoint that the spreadsheet was pointless. It is NOT a post of who responded to who but who accused someone of being mafia and who defended someone of being town. I made a similar list (albiet in post text form itself as there were only 9 people) in Suprisingly Normal Mafia as well since it allow you to voting/FoS relationships between people. Of course, you need to see the context and content of a post accusing/defending someone but the purpose of the sheet is to pin-point the person who needs to be studied instead of reading the entire posts of everyone. | ||
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Eternalmisfit
United States643 Posts
This will be my only post in regard of this matter since it is reaching a point where it does nothing but derail discussion away from finding mafia. Personally, I will post in a more clear and concise manner (close enough but not necessarily exactly following the format). Red and anyone else are free to disregard if they think that format is greater than content. I will still read and take into account any good analysis (regardless of co-sponsors and 3 hr time/3 page limits and other such limitations). | ||
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Eternalmisfit
United States643 Posts
KillerSoS is not a surprising kill since he had slipped up that he was blue which was further brought to notice by a prominent post by jaiminz and subsequent post by chaoser. This made him a clear scum target. Apart from that, he did not make any strong analysis. However, the killing of both Jackal and aidnai seems surprising to me. There is always a possibility they were selected randomly by scum but there are some common links between the two deaths. Neither jackal nor aidnai made strong suggestions of being a blue from their posts. The common link between the two was both were confident that Kurumi was obv-town (which turned out to be correct) and both of them did, in fact, suspect Cthsazsa at some point of time. Apart from this, Jackal mostly spent time tunneling Cthsazsa and made a list of 4-5 suspicious people at the end of night. This, in fact, may be a legitimate reason to kill him if he had fingered multiple people correctly in that list. On the other hand, aidnai’s death has perplexed me a bit. His three main contributions have been going after Irish, defending Kurumi, and supporting redtooth’s argument. None of them, by themselves, seem strong enough to dictate a kill choice. Regarding Redtooth Based in view of these aidnai’s death, I am not sold to the idea that redtooth is scum. The main argument used against redtooth is that he trying to derail town discussion and decrease town activity by trying to enforce a series of rules and standards. Aidnai was the only one who was in complete agreement with redtooth. If you were redtooth and scum at the same time, and your goal was to decrease town activity by enforcing these standards, would you decide to kill the only person who whole-heartedly supported you on your endeavor. Apart from the derailing the discussion argument (which I thought of as a valid one), the entire suspicion case against redtooth seems weak. | ||
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