EPT/in
TL Mafia XXXVII
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hint #1: i'm jewish hint #2: i can't eat the key | ||
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b) annul: random spamming so far. FoS's GMarshal and Chaoser for little reason. Even though he keeps saying we should lynch one of them, he hasn't actually pushed for them very hard. I mean, compare this to XXXV where he went balls out on LSB. He feels like he's picked a couple active people and voted them without a serious intent to start a bandwagon on them. Could be a townie looking for reactions or mafia trying to look like he's scumhunting. c) gryffindor: All his arguments seem pretty bad and he's very disruptive. Doesn't seem like he cares at all about being spammy. Probably town, but not a bad lynch regardless. d) On February 24 2011 11:05 icemac wrote: No, I'm not saying we hang you. What I'm saying is we keep the analysis for later where we actually have substantial data. then what the heck do you propose we do for the next 24 hours if not analysis? | ||
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On February 24 2011 11:23 annul wrote: you know i reply to shit if i am actually here i was at quidditch practice. just got home. so yeah i dont respond within the two hours that im afk sorry about that i mean for real in my "pile of shit" the third post, where i talk about chaoser's post -- and then indict GM's cells idea -- informs my vote. and i would hope that i play differently now than i do when i am mafia lol I didn't draw a conclusion from the fact that you are playing differently now than in XXXV. I know that you can change up your playstyle... What I am saying is that you know how to push a lynch (as demonstrated in XXXV), and the fact that you aren't pushing harder means that either (as town) you don't really have a good read on GMarshal or chaoser and are instead killing time and looking for reactions or (as mafia) are voting chaoser/FoSing GMarshal just to look like you are participating but not pushing hard enough for them to be lynched. I haven't decided which yet. | ||
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On February 24 2011 13:03 annul wrote: ##unvote ##vote gmarshal better than chaoser atm And annul, why are you voting for GMarshal again? If it's because you think his plan is scummy than you should lynch a large portion of town who like it. I certainly do. In other news here is my current lynch pick: icemac His relevant posts in spoilers - + Show Spoiler + On February 24 2011 10:20 icemac wrote: Seems like shit's hitting the wall pretty hard without any real leads so far. Since its too early, why not just get a semi-active who is probably smart enough to keep their heads in the game but not smart enough to post big as a mafia. I guess this is ironic coming from me seeing as how I've just got up to date & posting. On February 24 2011 10:22 icemac wrote: Also, I just want to say that these cell things is either big balls move by mafia or the workings of bad play. On February 24 2011 10:39 icemac wrote: Analysis doesn't mean shit Day 1. I don't see why you feel so compelled to pull stuff out of your ass and call it high level analysis. On February 24 2011 10:41 icemac wrote: I'm proposing we kill 0 of annul, GMarshal, gryffindor, chaoser and play it by ear afterwards. On February 24 2011 12:12 icemac wrote: Imo, we just need to get a vote out. With so many mafia on the floor, its trivial for them to just sweep something under the carpet. He has a reasonable activity level if you just look at the post count, but really he has said absolutely nothing. He says who we should vote for in a general sense, but avoids naming names. The one post that he does mention names in he basically just takes the top 4 most active players with no further explanation. He seems to be forcing himself to post when he doesn't actually have anything to say, so as to give the illusion of contribution. ##Vote: icemac | ||
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On February 24 2011 15:18 icemac wrote: So by responding to posts, I'm up for lynch? I've said a lot: the current way we're analyzing data isn't optimal. I don't think we should be you using scant data on Day 1 such as you, yourself, are doing. The reason I'm not listing any names other than the inactives is because I have no reasoning against anyone. I don't think I'm forcing myself at all; instead, I'm making meaningful posts on how town should act on Day 1 which is lynching inactives and semi-actives trying to stay in the covers. No, by responding to posts in meaningless ways, you are up for lynch. Basically you are saying we should go for a policy-lynch of some sort instead of going after someone we feel is mafia. Why wouldn't you go after mafia? Even if you want to lynch a semi-active you still have to choose which one which requires, you guessed it, analysis. Also, I was calling you out because you haven't mentioned one person you would lynch. General directives are ok, but only when you back them up with specific people you would lynch based on them. Then at least people can argue whether they fit the criteria you have laid out. Also, can you clarify what you meant by this post: On February 24 2011 10:41 icemac wrote: I'm proposing we kill 0 of annul, GMarshal, gryffindor, chaoser and play it by ear afterwards. I assumed the 0 was a typo for 1 because it makes much more sense as "I'm proposing we kill 1 of...". | ||
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On February 25 2011 05:08 Barundar wrote: Lol when did Jackal become gods gift to scumhunt? He sheeped after Coag onto GGQ in that game, messing up the Amber lynch. He also had me pegged as mafia in a post. In mini mafia V he tunneled pandain so hard he nearly lost the game for town alone. I wrote Jackal's playstyle into my post. I don't see you disagreeing with what I wrote there? I also explained why his first post differed from that. But you want "proof". Can you hand me the proof for annul so I can vote him then? I actually agree with LSB here that Barundar should at least be pressured. The last game I played with Barundar (XXXV) he tended to post with good reasoning and took all sides of an issue into account. In other words, he seems unusually angry and emotional defending annul (and FoSing LSB, come to think of it), which he doesn't exhibit as town in my experience. ##Vote: Barundar I would also like to draw a bit of attention to beneather. At the moment he has 3 posts in which he actually says something. On February 25 2011 07:15 Beneather wrote: I have been inactive I really do not know who to vote for so I guess I am going to bandwagon on Icemac. But if you look at who is voting for icemac it's the new players that are voting for him and that annul is getting voted by the more experienced players in the game. ##Vote: Icemac At this point in the game the major lynches are icemac and annul. Here beneather posts an excuse, a reason to vote for annul (because all the experienced players are doing it), and then proceeds to randomly bandwagon on icemac (the major competitor for lynch with annul at this point). This feels like an inactive scum random voting for the other wagon. On February 25 2011 08:33 Beneather wrote: You don't like aggressive players :O! So like do you want everyone to be all lovey dovey and not attack or try to put a FoS on somebody you want everyone to do NOTHING?! I have not heard anything from you but bandwagoning... No but like you've posted absolutely nothing not even a reason for your vote. Can we atleast get an explanation why you don't like annul's aggressiveness? Here Beneather praises aggressiveness and is a little bit aggressive towards an inactive. Of course, the problem with this post is that it comes at the height of the annul lynch, with Beneather never really addresses. This would have been a perfect opportunity to give his opinion on annul, but instead he calls out an easy target. Looks like trying to avoid the inactive label while avoiding the spotlight to me. On February 25 2011 09:05 Beneather wrote: I was just asking why you were voting for him. And then when kevconsim calls Beneather out for hypocrisy, Beneather immediately backs off and returns to inactivity. Seems like he's nervous about something, doesn't it? Anyway, it definitely isn't enough to lynch beneather, but I'd suggest that we keep an eye on him. | ||
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To me, the best explanation of the annul lynch was simply that icemac and possibly gryff are mafia and it was difficult to lynch anyone else. LSB may be mafia but I think icemac being mafia would open up that case a lot (if icemac is mafia then LSB is likely mafia opportunistically taking credit for busing annul after its clear he is going to die). Icemac has also done nothing today and soft defended annul a lot yesterday. Anyway, for now: ##Unvote ##Vote: Icemac | ||
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Barundar seems to be playing his pretty usual town self, and the conspiracy theory is totally town from him (see XXXV Barundar believes RoL bussed annul). I have a question: If Barundar is red, then why did he do analysis on Jackal rather than on icemac or gryff yesterday? Both of them had more heat on them and would have been an easier lynch than starting something on jackal. | ||
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On February 28 2011 03:20 kevconsim wrote: I suggest we do this or lynch Icemac. We can move forward by 1) lynching Barundar 2) lynching LSB 3) lynching Icemac Those are the only viable ways of moving forward i can see. I suggest we lynch Barundar today and if he turns out to be town we lynch LSB If you think they are both town then we should lynch Icemac Anyways ##VOTE Barundar All you have said in this post is that you think Barundar is red. Care to elaborate what in particular makes Barundar the most suspicious of the three? | ||
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On February 27 2011 19:04 Barundar wrote: Part 2: LSB’s bad logic and scumslips First of all, it’s difficult to pinpoint that exact moment in time, or post by annul, that convinces LSB that annul is mafia. In his first post: He is keeping annul’s play style in mind, so he is suspicious of him. In the next post LSB sound like he has already sorted annul as a lynch! Nothing happened between this post and the previous that should have raised his suspicion. But now it sounds like the lynch is already planned. While discussing with annul this post comes up. He is bad for town, but not necessarily mafia. His reason for voting. Doesn’t say annul is mafia. Note what a shit reason is, when was the last time you heard of someone who got persuaded to be modkilled? When LunarDestiny offered to get modkilled in mafia xxxvi, several mafia veterans felt the need to shout foul play in thread. Still isn’t mafia. Woops! Now not only is annul now mafia, he is also flipping red. Between the last posts annul hasn’t posted, there has been no new evidence. There is no smoking gun. Yet now annul is suddenly red. What’s even more interesting is this isn’t even brought up while talking about annul, it slips out when he is trying to connect others to annul. Now most people who has played mafia a few times will agree that there is no such thing as a proof of alignment, without either mod interference (like bumatlarge in mafia xxxvi) or stuff like DT checks after Godfather is dead. Even then a miller can mislead. In the end, the only sure thing is just a convincing analysis. For town there is always the possibility of being wrong. This result in a sliding indicator of suspicion against a player, that can get stronger or weaker depending on actions and arguments. Thus a vote for a townie is more a case of suspicion vs suspicion, where the guy with the highest amount of suspicion from the majority of the player gets voted off. LSB doesn’t go through a process of higher or lower suspicion. There is an obvious inconsistency between lynching annul for being obstructive to the town, to suddenly know he is red. This is not the only time LSB foregoes the suspicion state. For a lynch on Jackal, LSB demands “proof”: LSB is experienced enough to know there is no such thing as certainty, especially not on day 1. He dismisses the arguments I brought forward regarding Jackal, and while my arguments might be wrong, they should still raise suspicion. You can argue against the argument’s and disagree with the conclusions, but you can never get proof, since only mafia knows who’s red and who’s town. LSB, this is the most convincing part of Barundar's analysis to me. Basically, it says that you went from suspicion to knowledge of annul very quickly and without usual intermediate steps. It makes sense for this to have happened as mafia (as you could have decided to bus him at this point) but it makes less sense as town (because you need to have become more suspicious over time). What convinced you that annul was mafia and not just a good lynch because of his playstyle? The fact that you haven't really answered this question is I think what makes your defense unsatisfactory so far. | ||
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On February 28 2011 05:05 icemac wrote: ... Unless you're refering to this. How is that slip-up lol? Everyone in the game says they're town. Who doesn't? The arguments against you are: 1) Mafia didn't jump on you as an alternative to annul even though you had some votes on you. I realize its pretty hard for you to respond to this one. 2) You only addressed the annul issue yesterday to defend him. 3) You posted enough to avoid the inactive label and yet have contributed very little of value to town. Also, what made you post: On February 25 2011 12:30 icemac wrote: lada lada lada trollololol i guess i don't look so hot either According to you this isn't true...what did you think made you look bad? | ||
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I also want to switch so there is a close vote between two people so we can watch for vote switching. ##Unvote ##Vote: LunarDestiny | ||
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On February 28 2011 11:01 Jackal58 wrote: I believe it's my first game with him. How does he play when he's scum? Do nothing for a long time to avoid getting lynched? Honest question. This looks like a diversion off of icemak. Except everybody is jumping on board. I'm confused.  I don't like being confused. Basically, most people don't have super strong reads on icemac, so its an easy decision to switch off him to someone who has stronger support. Theres a pretty decent case on LD, plus it is foolishness making the case which, from what i gather, means there's a reasonable chance it is correct. Also there are advantages to having competing wagons. This way, if LD turns out town and icemac red later on, foolishness is under great suspicion. Also, if LD is red then people like coag who just switched back to icemac are suspicious. More information is good! | ||
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On February 28 2011 11:29 icemac wrote: unvote Vote: Icemac seriously if you are town vote lunar destiny. makes the vote closer and it will be the right vote! | ||
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Did LD's vote for himself near the end prove him innocent? I thought so, but then i realized he could just unvote if he needed to (although that might be suspicious). Overall I think it's pro-town but not overly so. I think we need a new crop of lynch targets for tomorrow. I nominate beneather and jbright as inactive people who have been more active in the past. I'm also interested to hear Foolishness' reasons for Seraph, as he's had Seraph pegged since day 1. | ||
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On February 28 2011 12:42 gryffindor wrote: This makes absolutely no sense, and setting up a chainlynch like this on someone who voted Annul OVER Icemac (townie) when annul had 5 votes and icemac had 5 votes surely wouldn't have been done by mafia. EXCUSE me to forcibly double post, but I am setting this one seperate from my main post which is coming, because I for sure want people to read this. Why setting up a chainlynch WHILE VOTING WHO I'M VOTING on me is laughable. I voted annul, in the middle of the lynch, and now LSB and why are pushing me? ha I voted icemac because I felt that scum TRIED TO WAGON ME as opposed to him, which made him look like scum. How can you even put me on that list? I had 2 votes on me when annul had like 10, because of my push on him bandwagonning and unvoting, plus LSB convinced me in PMs to vote him after he said he wouldn't push him regardless, and actually felt he was red. I was sniffing out whether or not it was a bus/whether or not he was blindly pushing like L or Ace would do, regardless of alignment. I'm just glad LSB isn't as good at lynching people as L, Ace, or I... hence why my target got lynched, and not his. Ummmm....what? I only mentioned you because I thought it was possible mafia didn't try to push the wagon onto either you or icemac because one or both of you was mafia (thus explaining the ease of the annul lynch). You are being really, really defensive when this is the only time I have ever mentioned the possibility of you being mafia in any of my posts. To be honest I find you really hard to read because you are all over the place, but the extreme defensiveness of this post over almost nothing makes me suspicious. | ||
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So, I'm going to vote Seraph because I really want to see him post more since he is supposedly an experienced player. LD would be a good lynch for informational purposes but I'm not convinced he's scum. ##Vote: Seraph | ||
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Anyway, here is a quick analysis of Seraph as to why I am voting for him. On February 23 2011 12:53 seRapH wrote: Chaoser didn't say anything new. He's repeating what GMarshal said, a typical "contribute without actually contributing" scumtell. But this early in the game I'm willing to excuse it, since new players and bad players won't have much to talk about anyways. At least Chaoser read BC's Town guide. On February 23 2011 13:00 seRapH wrote: 6 GFs would be completely imba (thought RoL did say behavioral analysis is key...) How's this: Let's concentrate on analysis and let blues do their jobs. Early on Seraph is basically doing nothing but excusing people for (admitted minor) scummy behavior and doing set up analysis which, while not explicitly scummy, is definitely something a scum would do as it gives them something to post about without making anybody angry. And, given how little Seraph has posted thus far, he is having trouble thinking of things to post about. Also note that he says to concentrate on scumhunting, which is ironic considering that he hasn't done any himself. On February 24 2011 17:07 seRapH wrote: icemac that was possibly the easiest way to dodge taking sides. The dude's probably going to get replaced or modkilled anyways. Seriously, take a stance on someone. Most of my game since my 6666th post has been going on through PMs, but I guess that was selfish of me >_> ##Vote Icemac Things to take sides on: GM vs Gryff- Cell System Annul vs LSB- XXXV Personally I doubt either of annul or LSB are scum, this is just a grudgematch. Coag and Kenpachi are playing more pro-town than usual (or maybe its just less spam?) People I'm suspicious of: Jackal- Playing a lot more passively than he did as town Icemac- Stop dodging the issues at hand Gofarman- Proponent of lynching inactives. Voting annul. A few more I'm not too sure of, will follow up on their posts tomorrow when I'm awake. Maybe. This is his first actual post where he says where he says what he thinks of people. Note that this is early on in the day. Seraph puts down a vote for the major non-annul lynch target at the time (icemac) and uses as his reason that icemac isn't being decisive enough. Of course, Seraph then goes on to basically completely remove himself from the annul vs. LSB issue by saying he thinks both are town which is the safe answer. He then proceeds to disappear for the rest of the day. Ser Aspi already pointed out why Seraph's big Day 2 post said basically nothing. And then there's this one: On March 02 2011 13:00 seRapH wrote: Few things: I never voted for ICanFlyLow. Ever. Check the voting thread, read through my votes. RoL you're cheating >=( @Axis of Evil post- Actually, the entire post that I made boils down to "IF YOU ALL FOLLOW ONE PERSON WITHOUT ANALYSIS OF YOUR OWN WE GET NO INFORMATION THROUGHOUT THE GAME". But of course Ser Aspi you wouldn't really agree with that because you're just sheeping along with foolishness anyways. As for LD and JBright, my supposed "scumbuddies", I'm not going to waste my time defending them. @KP Issue- I think it's likely that there's 2 godfathers and 3 goons left. That's 3.5KP, which should be enough to do everything. Or our vigi is someone who's under heavy pressure and doesn't think anyone will believe their claim, or a noob who was convinced by mafia not to claim (but he should still claim anyways hinthint). I suppose its also possible that LSB/jackal is lying, but until someone comes up with a plausible explanation why they would do that, I won't believe it. As for lynch targets for today, I'd really like seeing a lynch on any of us axis of evil guys or gryffindor. Would really give us a good idea of where everyone stands, especially if they flip scum. I can assure you lynching me would only serve to get us a bit closer to LYLO, and also maybe let me make some memorable last words that you might actually listen to, so how about the other 3 guys?  @Jackal- You can't actually expect us to go along without telling us why you want kevconism lynched. Convince me. I don't think you'd lie about the RB, so I'm going to take any analysis you give me as town advice. You said absolutely nothing in this post about anything of substance. Who do YOU think are mafia? You talk about the town sheeping and then you are like "I'm going to suggest we lynch one of the 3 people someone else pointed out but not me haha" and then lightly question jackal. Seriously what the hell you can do better than this if you are town. Oh yeah, and for completeness you also mention that KP speculation which everyone loves to talk about and you spend 1/4 of your post talking about it with no actual progress made. In other words, it is a nice filler to make your post seem longer. | ||
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On March 02 2011 13:53 kevconsim wrote: Wait the voting doesnt end today? Nope. Voting ends tomorrow at 10 pm EST. Since you are on, what do you think of Seraph? Also, how about answering this question: Deconduo asked this of you a couple hours ago and you never responded. It seems like a reasonable enough question. Also, it is kind of embarrassing to have posted an analysis on the same person as foolishness. | ||
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I wanted to see if he would actually post in the evening as he promised, but the weak FoS gave him a chance to defend himself before I got around to post. Well, at least it proved that 
