EPTTL Mafia XXXV
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
Insanious
Canada1251 Posts
| ||
|
Insanious
Canada1251 Posts
This made it impossible to find the mafia. What I'm just trying to say is that the town helped kill the town by removing anyone who actually helped out and talked. Inactives do absolutely nothing but hurt us, so I think we need to pressure inactives more than point fingers at active players. On day 1, we have very little to work with, all we can do is pick someone to lynch and pray. We might as well kill someone who could be a lurking mafia or someone who will help kill us later in the game. An active mafia is too smart to screw up on day 1 and die, as well an active mafia gives town a lot more material to work with once someone catches them with their pants down. An inactive mafia looks like an inactive town. To me, I would rather kill inactives (not don't post and don't vote, as in only vote and barely post) than kill someone who's actually talking. In pokemafia we killed Kenpachi and Zeks since they were talkative and didn't speak like a perfect townie. On later analysis we saw that they didn't actually look like mafia, they just spamed a lot and we wanted that gone. If we would of lynched inactives, we would of been able to find 4 of the 6 mafia, and would of saved 3 - 4 town. We would of won the game, but we focused on killing people that speak. I mean, we can get rid of someone who isn't helping now, and then have our DTs check people while we do forum analysis. This helps us more later in the game, then a random lynch of an active townie helps us now. Just my $0.02 | ||
|
Insanious
Canada1251 Posts
On December 28 2010 13:15 bumatlarge wrote: I say we reverse it and get inactives later. Lets kill whoever is the most outspoken when there is really not much to be outspoken about. We did this in pokemafia and killed 4 towns, and then ended the game with a tonne of inactives and no way to every figure out who was red. Also, voting inactives can only help the town IF the inactives become active because we are accusing them. More voices > no one talking. Getting everyone talking gives the town a much better chance to find scum rather then going "well we have 10 guys who don't talk... lets kill some of them and hope they are scum yay!" if they were all talking then it turns into "well, we have 1 - 2 scummy posters, lets put some pressure on them and see how other people react". Scenario 2 > Scenario 1 BY FAR. I really think we need to spend some time getting everyone talking. We still have 25 hours left to go, lots of time to pick a good lynch. Killing either LSB or annul is not a good idea... they are talking, but we don't know if they are a Green trying to pull attention to them selves, a vet trying to waste a mafia hit, or maybe they are mafia just trying to stir things up. The thing is we aren't sure, and if they keep talking this much we will soon be able to tell if they are scum or not simply through the number of posts that they might mess up in. Me, I think we need to look at the inactives and lurkers (1 post + vote, or only vote). Inactives: Note, but don't vote for them. People who are just logging in and voting are either a normal townie board about not being a blue/mafia, or mafia trying to lurk. Lurkers: We put pressure on them to be more active, get them to post and see who comes up scummy. Lurkers are most likely blue or a mafia simply trying to stay under the radar. They vote so as not to die, and post to look active but not enough to get looked at. Heavy Posters: We have to analyse what they say, but we need to look at what they say over time, not just at one instance. People who talk a lot are trying to get looked at. A townie trying to get hit who is trying to pull hits from a possible blue. Or they are mafia trying to lead the town down the wrong path. Now, I'm going to re-read the thread and try to find some lurkers to look at. But really... LSB and annul seem to just be two towns who are duking it out, there isn't enough info to definitly say red, but at least we have a lot of past behaviour to look at and work with. | ||
|
Insanious
Canada1251 Posts
1. Brocket (If replaced, let me know, might of missed it) 2. GeorgeClooney (If replaced, let me know, might of missed it) 3. Orgolove | 4. ~OpZ~ | 5. ShoCkeyy || 6. bumatlarge || 7. Tevo || 8. Soulfire || 9. why ||| 10. RebirthOfLeGenD ||| 11. tree.hugger ||| 12. Mr.Zergling |||| 13. deconduo |||| 14. Ryuu314 |||| 15. Insanious |||| This is in decending order for number of posts, the |'s represent 1 post. Anyone with over 4 posts I thought that they had posted enough to not be 100% lurking. As such, I think these 15 people (go go half of the game) need to start posting more (yes I realize I'm in the list too... but ya). I haven't looked at WHAT people have posted, just how many times. So ya... with a little more activity, scum hunting will be a lot easier. So here's goes my random vote, going to be on Shockeyy, you were a lurking mafia in Pokemafia, and your lurking now. Post more, and lets prove your innocence  . | ||
|
Insanious
Canada1251 Posts
On December 29 2010 03:32 annul wrote: okay, thats your opinion. at least you are viewing it from the proper lens: "i do not believe the analysis" and not "the analysis was good BUT he claimed blue so we should at least give him until day 3 before we really kill him" This is the same stupid stuff that Brocket did in Pokemafia. He was like "GABRIEL IS RED!!!!" and hunted him down with a passion ignoring what everyone else said, even though Gabriel was green. Your analysis on LSB looks exactly like the analysis done in Pokemafia where there is no specific scum tells just "his posts are spammy and not 100% green looking". To me LSB looks like a green again, he's posting basically just like in Pokemafia when he was a green. LSB also claimed blue when he was a green to try and draw a mafia hit, which as of now will probably hit our active players but leave both LSB and annul since they are being voted for. - - - - - As a complete side note, killing someone who claims blue, and says "I can prove I'm blue at end of night 2" is stupid. This just wastes town KP. Either he is blue and we lynch him or mafia kills him. OR he is mafia, he doesn't do what he says and we kill him. Letting him live 2 night rounds will not destroy the town, but lynching a powerful blue role on night 1 will hurt us a lot more then losing 2 townies. - - - - - - - What I see here, is annul wanting to get a red SOOOOOO bad, that he has bitten down on LSB like a pit bull and wont let go. Just like Brocket who thought Gabriel was red, people here are telling him (annul) to chill out, we have time. Lynching a blue hurts, guranteeing someone is a red before lynching them only stings. | ||
|
Insanious
Canada1251 Posts
On December 29 2010 04:33 annul wrote: why do you not understand the fact that keeping a red alive two extra days WILL result in an extra townie (or two) dying? killing a mafia today means their KP will drop now or drop on the next mafia death. its not like we lose nothing keeping him around. we need to view it as "is it worth losing one more townie if he turns out to be red" Because he doesn't look red, and claims blue. So to me this looks like: 1) We kill a blue and lose their powers for night 1 or 2) We let a blue live 2 more days till the mafia kill them I don't see LSB as a red, he doesn't look red to me, and you look just like Brocket in pokemafia. Brocket didn't let go of Gabriel, your not letting go of LSB. Your 100% sure he is mafia, when there are like no posts even looking like he is mafia... he looks just like LSB the guy that almost saved the Pokemafia but then some people quit early... LSB is a strong town voice, he has claimed blue, this makes him one of the strongest players in the game and if he is not a red then should be kept alive at all costs. If he turns up as a blue and we lynch him we lose a strong town voice and a blue, this hurts the town 100000000000000x more then losing 2 greens that post mediorce posts IMHO, Because 2 greens that post mediocre posts don't help the town, where a blue does, as does a strong experience town voice that can do analysis. This is why I don't agree with this. Because we lose a lot if he is blue, and if he is red... well the KP probably wont even drop by 1, we will still lose the same amount of people just we are down a blue to help us, and LSB to do analysis. | ||
|
Insanious
Canada1251 Posts
On December 29 2010 04:43 annul wrote: then this is your real reson. its not his blue claim, its "i do not believe annul's analysis." My reasoning is this. Blue LSB > 2 greens dying. So to me, lynching him (if he is blue), hurts the town more than having the mafia kill 2 more people. But hell, you don't even see how lynching LSB does nothing for the town... Scenario 1) We lynch him and he is red - Mafia KP probably doesn't go down, so we still lose 3 Scenario 2) We lynch someone else, wait till night 2 and he doesn't do what he says - Mafia KP still at 3, but we kill a confirmed red ^^^ in both of these, we are at the exact same point in the game, same amount of mafia kills, same amount of town does, same amount of mafia dead Scenario 3) We lynch someone else, wait till night 2 and LSB does what he says - Mafia KP still at 3, but we are up a blue In Scenario 3, we have a blue on our team and someone we can trust. So killing LSB does nothing for the town, waiting to see if he is blue helps the town, since there will be a 50/50 chance of him being a blue. If he is blue, we get to keep a blue alive. If he is red we end up in the same position we would of been lynching him right now. Killing LSB now does 0 for the town, waiting for him to prove if he is a blue or red = helps the town. | ||
|
Insanious
Canada1251 Posts
On December 29 2010 05:06 LSB wrote: If I offer myself to be lynched, will you lynch Annul afterwards? No because I don't think you or Annul are red... I think you are blue and annul is green. Annul = Brocket You = Gabriel From pokemafia... Annul just doesn't let go and now we get to lynch one of the most helpful townies . | ||
|
Insanious
Canada1251 Posts
| ||
|
Insanious
Canada1251 Posts
No info: Anti LSB: - Annul Pro LSB: - Me Annul = town, easy to see Me = town, because I know I'm town :/, hopefully my posts speak for me. LSB turns up green: - We have no suspects to look at LSB turns red: - We look at me... awesome? want to know how I know LSB isn't red... No one is trying to divert the lynch, if LSB was red, the mafia would be trying to throw up another name to be lynched instead of LSB. Is that happening? NOOOOO Mafia are throwing LSB under the bus because... LSB isn't mafia. People, if he was mafia we would be having a lot more discussion rather then Annul: "LSB is mafia" LSB: "No I'm not" Everyone else: "I don't know who is mafia, lets bandwagon LSB" This is just bad town play, and for one, I am disappointed... We are voting for: 1) An active player 2) A player that might be blue 3) A player that no one is really defending 4) A player that if he turns red, there are no other posters to look at if he flips LSB is a terrible lynch... | ||
|
Insanious
Canada1251 Posts
On December 29 2010 06:56 TheMango wrote: I think LSB is lying about being vigilante. Makes no sense from a townie perspective. How would we even know at the start of night two? If he kills someone as vigilante that we choose, he could just as easily be mafia killing someone, no? Someone correct me if I'm wrong... Kind of but no... Say he is mafia, well then his vig hits are more or less dictated by town "LSB, hit XXX" if he ever doesn't then we know he is mafia, and we kill him. This gives town control of a mafia KP. Meaning he can either be: 1) Vig controlled by town 2) Town controls a Mafia KP, allowing us to kill players the town decides, not those that the mafia think are best to hit. So even if LSB is mafia, its stronger for town to keep him alive to control the KP. But he might not be a vig, he might be something else and might reveal something else, we don't know. Either way, keeping a blue alive = very important, so even if he is a red, we can hold off for 1 - 2 nights and its not that bad... Since killing him now, or latter does very little to help the town till we find a 2nd mafia player to kill to lower KP. | ||
|
Insanious
Canada1251 Posts
As such, killing LSB later if he does not follow through with his plan is >>>>>>> killing him now. Killing a random green >>>>>>> killing a blue. As such, killing anyone but LSB today is >>>>>>> killing LSB. LSB has a 20% chance of being mafia as anyone else, you make it seem like he has slipped up somewhere, but he hasn't... he has a 20% chance just like everyone else, and there is nothing that screams mafia about LSB. LSB is giving us an alternative route... Vote someone else, and save a possible blue. If he is not blue, kill him. Town loses nothing, we only gain the life of a blue, so killing LSB is bad right now. | ||
|
Insanious
Canada1251 Posts
Annul - He keeps pushing, and he needs to stop. If he is going to be like this all game, he is going to hurt the town a lot. Might even be mafia trying to kill an active Blue seraph - RoL's analysis Now I can throw one more in here: Brocket - As town he was SUPER SUPER active, most active poster in Pokemafia. In this game, he has 1 post and 1 vote, not talking at all. Exact opposite... very fishy. | ||
|
Insanious
Canada1251 Posts
On December 29 2010 07:31 annul wrote: "clearly" a bad idea -- clear to whom? even pandain says you are 99% mafia Even Pandain said killing him now is a bad idea... Killing him now = dead blue/mafia Killing him later = dead mafia - - - - Killing him now = no one new to look at associated with LSB Killing him later = focusing on others and finding more mafia - - - - Killing him now = Mafia dictated KP, or mafia kill Killing him later = Town dictated KP - - - - Killing him now = no bonus to town Killing him later = possible saving blue, more information, and more town control Killing him now is a bad idea, killing him later if he turns up red is a good idea. | ||
|
Insanious
Canada1251 Posts
On December 29 2010 07:39 annul wrote: you do not seem to understand math if there is a "99%" chance he is mafia, the only thing you can gain is 1% certainty by waiting. in exchange for this 1% certainty, assume we attack someone on RNG basis. we give up 80% certainty today and, in exchange for ONE PERCENT chance to save a blue, we take a ~33% chance of randoming a "different" blue. an actual blue. He isn't 99% mafia, you are just blinded... to me its like a 20% chance of him being red, and 80% chance of him being blue. I would rather wait. You sound just like Brocket in Pokemafia... blinded and not looking at things around you. There is no 99% chance of being mafia as LSB hasn't slipped up, so there is something like a 20% chance of being a red. You need to calm down, and wait.... its what is best for town, there is no sure red here, there is just a possible scum maybe. and for the chance to save a blue, I'd rather wait... | ||
|
Insanious
Canada1251 Posts
On December 29 2010 07:43 annul wrote: i do not play this game RNG. if this game was entirely RNG then what is the point of playing at all, of analysis, etc? i do not have a 6/30 chance of feeling correctly. my "feelings" are not RNG-based. But feelings mean very little without proof, and you haven't posted any. Your whole argument is "he is spammy therefore mafia". He hasn't slipped up in this game, and as such there is no proof except a feeling. Your feeling is the same as RNG. There are probably 6 mafia (as in most 30 player games there are 6 mafia...) so your feeling is the same as just randomly picking one of 30 people giving you a 20% chance of hitting a mafia. If LSB is telling the truth we only have to wait 2 days, and in those two days we might find another mafia, this helps the town, as does saving a blue. Holding off on lynching LSB for 2 days simply defers a lynch and doesn't hurt the town pretty much at all... | ||
|
Insanious
Canada1251 Posts
That guy is just playing so differently from Pokemafia, that he one of the few people in this game that actually make me think scum, To me, Annul = Green LSB = Blue So neither is a good vote. I want to hit someone else, and Brocket screams red due to the whole: Pokemafia: Had over 10 posts in the first 24 hours - Was green Mafia XXXV: Has 1(ish) post in the first 48 hours - is ? This is just so stupidly different then before, that he is obviously a different role. Blues will try to help the town by talking here and there, mafia are more likely to lurk and go under the radar IMHO. I'm voting Brocket now, because we need to get votes off LSB and I'd rather kill someone more likely to be RED, then just a random inactive... Either that, or someone needs to give me someone active to vote for that isn't LSB or Annul both are bad lynches right now. | ||
|
Insanious
Canada1251 Posts
On December 29 2010 08:39 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: I'm getting a strong sense like there is an attempt to save LSB underway right now. We've had several different attempts to switch attention to people who I don't feel are remotely suspicious (i.e opz or brocket). These people are lurkers but I don't think they are overtly scummy. This really feels like a last minute attempt by the mafia to take the heat of LSB. LSB is playing similar to how he did in Pokemafia. Where he was the strongest town voice and a townie. Not to mention lynching him later is better for the town as it can save a blue and lynching him now won't reduce KP so we won't lose less town. Brocket was a vocal town voice with the highest posts in Pokemafia. He was town, now in this mafia he is not posting at all. He is lurking which isn't something he does, and was vocal against lurkers in Pokemafia. To me this makes Brocket seem red, where LSB has claimed blue. To me this is a lynch of a possible mafia to save a blue... Brocket is fishy, LSB is possibly one of the strongest town players. | ||
|
Insanious
Canada1251 Posts
On December 29 2010 08:47 bumatlarge wrote: Few reasons why.I am curious as to how people are shifting votes around together very smoothly. Im sure RoL gave a relatively similar arguement on seraph and it pittered out. Now insanious points brocket very reasonably and 5 people shift their votes? Im actually itching to see what LSB would pop now... Sorry if you are a vig buddy For starters seraph is an active and experienced town player, so losing him as a town sucks. The more experienced players like LSB, seraph, RoL, tree.hugger etc... live longer the better shot town has. Next Brocket is posting vastly different then he did in Pokemafia, which points out different behaviour between his town play and his play now. As well, Brocket is not a strong town voice, meaning between losing Brocket and LSB, Brocket hurts less. Finally, most people have read the case for not lynching LSB now that wasn't there when RoL brough up seraph. Meaning now people are looking for a way to switch off of LSB. There wasn't a good candidate to switch to before brocket. Annul is town Seraph is experience d3 is being voted for by pandrain when no one is really listening to now Then there is Brocket, random inactive who is playing vastly different then he did when he was town. Best choice offered. If there was someone better to vote for I would, and I will be the first to vote LSB come day 3 if he doesn't prove that he is blue. | ||
|
Insanious
Canada1251 Posts
Brocket is NOT playing like he did in Pokemafia and that is fishy as he was town there... So he is something different now. | ||
| ||
