TL Mafia XXXI

On October 02 2010 13:34 bumatlarge wrote:
I did about ten minutes on the minimafia II and I did fine.

Oh wait no I didnt.

On October 05 2010 06:16 Happy.fairytail wrote:
I actually don't think there's a difference whether we pick by random or inactive because:

a) Inactive doesn't necessarily mean non-blue. I've seen plenty of games where the DT was very quiet and seemingly inactive. He evaded all mafia suspicion and survived to the mid game and revealed himself. With himself and 3 innocent townsperson, he was able to establish a lasting majority against the mafia and win.

b) We have an equal chance of picking a village idiot whether we go random or inactive. It's not like we have special insight into the idiot's tactics that would give us an edge in determining one method or the other.

I think the two most important things are:

a) Communication. The upside far outweighs the downside, and I think we all agree here, no need to explain further.

b) We lynch someone every round. I'm going to prove this for another post statistically...

On October 05 2010 07:00 Happy.fairytail wrote:
Why we should lynch every round

Let's take a simplified game example: 9 total people, 2 mafia, no cop. In my 3 scenarios below, I demonstrate how it's better to have as many guesses as possible, as statistically this drastically increases your chances of getting at least one mafia killed.



As you can see, if we were to take the extreme case of waiting to the last possible round to vote, we would need to have information that increases our probability of picking a mafia by 27% as compared to randomly lynching every round. Personally, I don't have the confidence in our ability to do that.

Secondly, it is imperative that we reduce the Mafia count to 3, which would halve the rate at which they can kill people at night. The early we do this, the better.

Now, with the addition of a DT, we should consider the odds of him getting killed, his optimal "coming out" period, and how that affects our scenario above.



The important thing to note that in the above case is that if there's a lynching every round, the cop's survival rate going into the last round = 73% ... every further round that goes by, the cop may get further killed, and his pick at night is diluted by the fact that there's townspeople. Yes he has a higher chance of getting a mafia as time goes by, but consider this -- if the cop can survive to the last round, and has 2 confirmed innocents, he can win the game by revealing himself and rallying himself + 2 = 3 over the 2 mafia to win. However, you have to offset that with the probability that the cop and mafia will have coinciding picks at least one of the 2 nights: 1 - (1 - (1/7 police pick * 1/5 mafia pick * 5 possible townspeople = 1/7) * 1 - (1/5 police pick * 1/3 mafia pick * 3 townspeople = 1/5)) = 31%.

In other words, lynching every round in the above simplified game has a 42% chance of auto-winning by cop, and a 67% chance of going beyond the round of 5 people. I dont' know how to do the exact calculations, but I strongly suspect that your chances of auto-winning by cop with more rounds goes down since his survival rate decreases by 11% since he must survive to the round of 5 people left no matter what, which probably doesn't completely offset however much the 31% risk of choosing same targets at night is decreased. Additionally, you have a higher chance of getting beyond the round of 5 in lynching every round.


Hope this helps...

On October 06 2010 00:29 Crisis_ wrote:


Well, these inactives are the candidates that I'm in favor of voting of. And yea, I'm new, so I'm probably shit at this game rofl. I wouldn't be surprised if I screwed up the whole game.

I've attempted to give advice to the DT, but now I'm not so sure if it was a great idea or not.

On October 06 2010 05:27 Pandain wrote:
I don't count Cynan as inactive and Nobody should vote for him because his actions thus far are in accordance with his previous play. That's not to say I'm not watching him(I am) but he's not that suspicious to me.

On October 06 2010 05:04 SouthRawrea wrote:
At this point in time I would have to say that NuketheBunny's current strategy is pretty blatant and although I don't completely agree with how he's going about doing it, I would have to say I would like to get the more experience inactives to say something. I'm seeing some of the newer players being earnest in their attempt to play (ex: kingjames01) and this is a good sign. As they are much newer I wouldn't expect them to contribute as much.

We're only 3 pages into this game so far however and although I believe we're jumping the gun on the entire: lynch inactives. We are left with the problem of only 11 hours left in this game and plenty of inactives though so if we must come to an accord quickly for our lynch. Random Lynch is a good option in this game as we have many newer players which also explains the high number of inactives.

Oh god I'm terribly sorry about how unorganized this post is, I'm brain dead at the moment. :/

What I mean to say is that this day is short, we have lots of new players who are inactive, we should random lynch because many players haven't been given a proper chance to post as of yet.

On October 06 2010 10:54 SiNiquity wrote:
so protactinium, who are you? You're tied for the lead to be killed.

On October 07 2010 09:18 LSB wrote:
Divinek is being pretty active

Pandian is writing weird stories again. That probably means he's Red or Blue

As for the Newcomers, I haven't read much, but it should be pretty easy to tell if one of them is Green. Are any of them superactive?

Lastly, Someone go Protect/Investigate Xelin. Brownbear just told us straight out that he's Red or Blue

On October 08 2010 05:20 Bill Murray wrote:
I am certain of BC, but noone will fucking lynch him. That is why I'm asking DTs to check. If he comes back as "town", he is the godfather. If he is blue, he is possibly legit.