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Hesmyrr
Canada5776 Posts
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Hesmyrr
Canada5776 Posts
On June 29 2010 03:10 bumatlarge wrote: Hope a guy gets juliet and korynna gets romeo Well, obligatory scum n1 Korynne hit coming for one-shot-for-two deal >  | ||
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Hesmyrr
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Hesmyrr
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On June 29 2010 08:17 DarthThienAn wrote: lol, that's how I think of homework with 24hr increments for the lateness penalty. And exactly when another 24 hour passes and you are only left with approx. ~3 hr again, with hardly any progress toward your goal, you panick. | ||
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Hesmyrr
Canada5776 Posts
Now DarthThienAn confirmed that role, as all good mods should do, were randomized. In this case I believe the town's best choice of action is to lynch inactives or poor townies without any worries at all. Even in normal mafia setup with large roster of Townies this is pretty decent move, but here where d1 target constitutes only Godfather and Traitor, it's a win move. The probability of hitting antitown player by grabbing any random player is equally 1/10, and today's flip is more likely to be determined by roll of fortune than good hard scumhunting exactly because of the difficulty of getting read for today. So why not rid us of a anti-town players and make our lives much easier? I would also like to note that this state of cluelessness extends to day 2 also, since the situation will be GODFATHER, MAFIA, TRAITOR. In this case only scum player with concrete knowledge on his allies are Godfather, who has recruited the mafia. However even if the mafia happens to be bandwagoned d2, I think that Godfather will less likely to try to bring himself into spotlight by defending single scum, when he still has recruitment power on his thumb. Thus the interaction based analysis fails to be any use until day 3; proportionally increasing the importance of investigative power roles. Unless in uttermost danger the PR should definitely not out themselves, and do not commit to making obvious PR tells which Godfather may catch on. Most of us have played few games in TL before so should know mafia is just as likely to hit (or recruit, in this case) active lurkers early night as highly active townie in hope of fishing out power roles. This is my current thoughts about this setup for now, I think other players should try to figure out town's best strategy also since looking at the quality of arguments is the best material we can use to scumhunt at this point. | ||
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Hesmyrr
Canada5776 Posts
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Hesmyrr
Canada5776 Posts
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Hesmyrr
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Summary: likely afk during Canada Day | ||
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Hesmyrr
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First, I am Hesmyrr. I think [player] is [good/middle/bad] (pick 1)-skilled, and believe mafia is likely to recruit [good/middle/bad] (pick 1)-skilled player! ...-_- I would be pleasantly annoyed to see player vote someone due to this reasoning. It's mindless WIFOM and essentially null-read that should never be used to lynch someone; especially when there is more concrete materials to work around with now, with most player having made their stances and endorsements. Now Double Lynch (proposed by BM). This is bad idea, and many people already spoke up why, but let me summarize the main points: 1) There are only two double lynch available in this game and should be saved until seriously needed, 2) Using double lynch at d1, when there are lack of information, only increases chance of bandwagoning scum slightly but greatly increase the chance of bandwagoning PR (since there are more of them) which is exactly what we do not want. I am curious to know the Bill Murray's reasoning behind his support- it is in responsibility of the plan proposer to explain why that plan is good idea, you know. Mass Roleclaim. I am not even discussing this shit. Roleblock instead of Lynch (proposed by Korynne). For some reason I really don't like this idea, and I wish I could point out in detail why had I enough time. I'll try to give detailed argument against this plan when I have enough time tomorrow, and either way it wouldn't even matter because I think the town is pretty much forced to lynch every day til Godfather is confirmed dead. Please remember we are fighting CULT (with NK powers), not Mafia? Lynching normal Mafia goon does not result in net gain for us, it just results in stalemate as mafia recruit another member immediately following night. Especially with INCREASING KP, the town effort should be focused on getting Godfather than scum especially now when we have the same probability of finding them anyway. Voting BrowneY as placeholder, probably subject to change but I would appreciate it if more people (zeks, Divinek etc.) spoke up. | ||
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Hesmyrr
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Hesmyrr
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Hesmyrr
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Masons, if the zeks ISN'T mason, have one of you cc. We have one confirmed mafia then, and note that having only one mason revealed is not a setback but merely continuation of L's plan which not many criticized against. However if you choose to hold back your cc you'll contribute in confusing the town; it's not worth it. I re-read the Korynne's plan, and though it sounds pretty complicated, I realized it can be restated pretty easily, especially with withdrawal of DT aspect: We lynch the scummiest player, and we as a town should vote on who the RB should target. Looking at that way it doesn't sound that bad, especially since it's clear that RB should target the scummiest player living at that night, and if something crazy like NK happens clearly asking the RB to hit specific player before the night can reduce town confusion and WIFOM a lot significantly. Don't know other details Korynne threw in though- even if NK occurs, the town should be prepared to analyze it with grain of salt instead of quick-sheeping 'OMG KILL DAT RB'D SUCKAR' mindlessly. Also here is some information I thought you guys might appreicate: ==================== Vote Count * blue numbers indicate vote change (if 2, it is the second person he/she voted for in that day). Chezinu (0) AcrossFiveJulys (0) BrowneY (1) Thegilaboy (July 01 2010 11:48) Bill Murray (0) ElyAs (6) BrownBear (July 01 2010 13:52) AcrossFiveJulys (July 01 2010 14:56) Korynne 2 (July 02 2010 03:48) bumatlarge 2 (July 02 2010 21:00) Divinek (July 02 2010 22:36) ElyAs 2 (July 02 2010 23:22) zeks (0) youngminii (1) citi.zen (July 01 2010 16:37) Korynne (2) Chezinu (July 02 2010 01:06) Bill Murray 4 (July 02 2010 05:48) YellowInk (2) lakrismamma (July 01 2010 23:52) zeks (July 02 2010 23:14) Divinek (2) Hesmyrr (July 02 2010 01:28) YellowInk 3 (July 02 2010 16:16) Thegilaboy (0) Hesmyrr (0) Abenson (1) rastaban 4 (July 02 2010 23:04) No vote: L, DCLXVI, youngminii, BrowneY ==================== | ||
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Hesmyrr
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BrowneY is no-brainer for moment, but I am wondering why you do not ElyAs lynch? Are you willing to propose 'an' alternative lynch candidate that town can choose to go behind? | ||
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Hesmyrr
Canada5776 Posts
On July 03 2010 02:42 AcrossFiveJulys wrote: Just thought of an idea: if all the blues role claim besides the dreamcatcher, then when a blue gets recruited, the dreamcatcher can roleclaim and report what power s/he acquired and we catch a mafioso immediately. This works because there is almost certainly only one dreamcatcher (with two, it would get confusing who acquires what powers). Now the normal dangers of roleclaiming would come with this, but I just wanted to throw this idea out. Also, if we have for example two detectives, we wouldn't know which one was recruited. A modification of the idea could be that only the most powerful blues role claim, so if mafia are tempted to recruit them, they'll be caught by the dreamcatcher, but vets/mason are still a threat to mafia. ..... Okay, are you truly suggesting mass roleclaim for the sake of catching one mafioso? First, if one PR (rightfully so) disagrees with your plan and do not claim, everything burns down in panic and confusion. What do we do with the roles that are more than one? Your plan only lynches one recruited mafia- however, because Godfather is alive and fine, the net consequence is that mafia does not suffer any damage while town takes 2 PR damage (1 NK and 1 recruit) with all the blues vulnerable now. | ||
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Hesmyrr
Canada5776 Posts
Obviously Korynne's plan hinges on getting Mafia goon so we have some semblance of control over night death, but I rather like the idea of trying to roleblock Godfather too, since the # of successful recruitments he get off before dying is critical to the game's fate. Moreover by not shying away from RBing Godfather we can just choose to roleblock the scummiest player without worrying about details. We just need to remember in such case kill occurring in night does not necessarily mean the roleblocked player is town. As for roleblock candidate, I propose rastaban. I first noticed him only because of his frequent vote switch, but I don't think this is that bad chocie at all. He is fairly active in the game, but is one of those player who did not attract that much attention of the town, due to YI / Korynne / Bill Murray hogging all the town's spotlight. I would appreciate it if you guys also started talking about who to roleblock (since lynch candidate this point seem to be decided as either ElyAs or Abenson) and why. | ||
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Hesmyrr
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On July 03 2010 04:00 Chezinu wrote: zek roleclaim - gains immunity from lynch and he probably isn't GF Bill Murray - because he would have recruited me if he was GF - if he is GF that was a great play by not recruiting me BrowneY- obv reasons Others - they will get modkilled so no point in killing them - these are people mafia feel comfortable killing because they know they aren't the GF. Town is also comfortable killing these people because it prevents lost of a town/blue since they would die anyways. So in a way it is a "no lynch". I didn't narrow the list further because I was trying to be objective. I didn't want to rule-out any potential GFs. Alright. You could have titled the list better than "list of lynch candidates" :p Also Bill Murray exclusion makes for a pretty shoddy objectiveness, doesn't it? I don't know much about players here so not sure what relationship you have with BM. | ||
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Hesmyrr
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Is there any candidate for roleblock besides YI, Korynne, or esterban? | ||
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On July 05 2010 01:32 Divinek wrote: there's always the chance he was actually the traitor trying to mess with us and just said coroner that or we pray we started with 2/lucked out with dream catcher What benefit does traitor gain by fake-claiming coroner though? Mafia will not know who they killed either, so their plans will just as be confused as much as us (as in, coroner fakeclaim messes up # of alive coroner count in mafia side & they stop looking for coroner). Honestly one-time coroner and perpetual no role reveal is pretty lol, but we must plan under the worst case scenario that there are no more coroner power available. From next night the detectives are able to use their investigative abilities: I strongly recommend detective to reveal himself only when he have Godfather result (not Goon result). With claimed power roles so hard to verify, claiming just to announce mafia (which will just be recruited) is suicide. Detectives can also rule out that mafia player from the lynch list since the priority of the town, as always, should be to lynch Godfather for now. In case of claim conflict, I see no viable plan to counter so except good old hard method of analytical scumhunting. | ||
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Hesmyrr
Canada5776 Posts
I have to leave at 7:10 so voting for Abenson. My reasoning is that, like some have said, he is confusing Townie and his probability of being godfather is just as equal as anyone else. Since I expect the game to reach critical point on d3 with all the mass claims, I rather take mysterious Joker card out of the deck before that time arrives. | ||
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