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On May 19 2012 08:08 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:Show nested quote +On May 19 2012 03:45 Katina wrote:On May 19 2012 03:39 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:On May 19 2012 03:35 Katina wrote:On May 19 2012 02:58 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
So gonzaw, ET, and myself have been doing the heavy lifting the past few days. I'd like to ask everyone who the final two scum are (we're not gonna worry about sandro right now since he's gonna die). Wiggles and someone else Who else? Well if I had figured that out or come to a conclusion I would have said so silly -_- Why are you so unwilling to contribute? You're rapidly approaching cephiro/VE level of uselessness.
I'm not. I honestly don't know. Going by the votes it seems you would make the most sense for the last mafia on Palmar's team. But if we're going by behavior then I'm not going to point any fingers at you, which is why I haven't. I looked through Pick Your Power Interesting and you were very calm and passive in that game as mafia. It's nothing like what you are doing this game. I raise an eyebrow because you seemed gone/inactive days 2-4ish but on day 1 you were really active and since day 4 you've been here. So I'm not coming to point fingers yet until Wiggles and sandroba are dead and I'm more confident about killing you than anyone else.
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I don't understand why we aren't going for the double lynch with Mr. Wiggles though.
No one has bothered to make any statement in thread any reservations about his towniness.
And the voting system looks like its rigged to allow for the chance of lynching katina as well (by withdrawing all votes).
There's no indication that sandroba will comply (no reason for him to, just look at yesterday he can just dump illegal votes).
Wiggles can out himself because no one seems to think he is town and the trio can pull off the maneuver they pulled on Palmar and prplhz.
I'm thinking that you guys are contemplating a slOosh-katina scum team. I want to know who is pushing for this set up, because I'm thinking its the same person who pushed for Palmar prplhz double lynch. A town-scum double lynch is not good for us. If you think she is scum then you should discuss it in thread.
Right now we have 7 players. If we lynch town-scum then its down to 5 players, 2 scum, and there is no guarantee that we will even have the ability to lynch scum as our strong read might get into minorty and we will be forced into this 'I guess we lynch the least towniest person' nonsense.
I think katina is town. Which means one of the trio is scum. Bring it out into the thread. Because right now two of you are being deceived (or I'm wrong about katina). So show me how she is scum or how the trio is so definitely town.
I'm not planning on going rogue - its clear this game is about co-operation on another level and that pulling a lone ranger is the worst thing that can happen. But I'm voicing serious reservations about how this is being conducted.
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EBWOP:
No one has bothered to make any statement in thread any reservations about his scumminess (basically no one is saying he might be town / he looks town)
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I'd like some in thread accountability.
If you think Mr. Wiggles is town then please say so.
If you think katina is scum please say so.
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I lean, for the most part, town on both of you, and I thought I made that clear in pms. I'm not sure why you're expecting a sloosh katina kill when sandroba is the expressed lynch forthe day.
Put my votes down. Flying back homeeeee
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Clarification: I lean town on katina and sloosh.
Though you asking for in thread accountability is good for the discussion, having everyones full reads out there isn't the most optimal pro town thing. Scum could snipe those standing against them while leaving behind sympathizers, or w.e wifom.
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On May 20 2012 00:39 Katina wrote:Show nested quote +On May 19 2012 08:08 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:On May 19 2012 03:45 Katina wrote:On May 19 2012 03:39 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:On May 19 2012 03:35 Katina wrote:On May 19 2012 02:58 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
So gonzaw, ET, and myself have been doing the heavy lifting the past few days. I'd like to ask everyone who the final two scum are (we're not gonna worry about sandro right now since he's gonna die). Wiggles and someone else Who else? Well if I had figured that out or come to a conclusion I would have said so silly -_- Why are you so unwilling to contribute? You're rapidly approaching cephiro/VE level of uselessness. I'm not. I honestly don't know. Going by the votes it seems you would make the most sense for the last mafia on Palmar's team. But if we're going by behavior then I'm not going to point any fingers at you, which is why I haven't. I looked through Pick Your Power Interesting and you were very calm and passive in that game as mafia. It's nothing like what you are doing this game. I raise an eyebrow because you seemed gone/inactive days 2-4ish but on day 1 you were really active and since day 4 you've been here. So I'm not coming to point fingers yet until Wiggles and sandroba are dead and I'm more confident about killing you than anyone else.
What do you think about sloosh then? You say you don't want to point fingers at MZ yet, but what about sloosh?
Also, again, we won't do a multilynch today, we'll kill sandroba alone, so where each vote goes doesn't matter at all if everybody follows the plan
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Omg I almost missed the Champion's League final because of this game >_>
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Penalties!
Anyways people. again, vote according to the plan. If someone votes differently we'll take it as a scum claim and we'll kill him later (like usual).
I guess not much will happen until the flip, so let's enjoy the match! (hmm, I don't really know who to root for, instinctively I want Chelsea to win since I always watch the EPL, but I want Chelsea to lose since I will LOL so much since they'll miss the next year's CL and Spurs will go instead  )
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On May 20 2012 05:04 gonzaw wrote:Show nested quote +On May 20 2012 00:39 Katina wrote:On May 19 2012 08:08 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:On May 19 2012 03:45 Katina wrote:On May 19 2012 03:39 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:On May 19 2012 03:35 Katina wrote:On May 19 2012 02:58 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
So gonzaw, ET, and myself have been doing the heavy lifting the past few days. I'd like to ask everyone who the final two scum are (we're not gonna worry about sandro right now since he's gonna die). Wiggles and someone else Who else? Well if I had figured that out or come to a conclusion I would have said so silly -_- Why are you so unwilling to contribute? You're rapidly approaching cephiro/VE level of uselessness. I'm not. I honestly don't know. Going by the votes it seems you would make the most sense for the last mafia on Palmar's team. But if we're going by behavior then I'm not going to point any fingers at you, which is why I haven't. I looked through Pick Your Power Interesting and you were very calm and passive in that game as mafia. It's nothing like what you are doing this game. I raise an eyebrow because you seemed gone/inactive days 2-4ish but on day 1 you were really active and since day 4 you've been here. So I'm not coming to point fingers yet until Wiggles and sandroba are dead and I'm more confident about killing you than anyone else. What do you think about sloosh then? You say you don't want to point fingers at MZ yet, but what about sloosh? Also, again, we won't do a multilynch today, we'll kill sandroba alone, so where each vote goes doesn't matter at all if everybody follows the plan
It's posts like the one Sloosh made above that makes me sure he's town over anyone else right now.
On May 20 2012 06:21 gonzaw wrote:Penalties! Anyways people. again, vote according to the plan. If someone votes differently we'll take it as a scum claim and we'll kill him later (like usual). I guess not much will happen until the flip, so let's enjoy the match! (hmm, I don't really know who to root for, instinctively I want Chelsea to win since I always watch the EPL, but I want Chelsea to lose since I will LOL so much since they'll miss the next year's CL and Spurs will go instead )
Now at this point I'm going to have to raise an objection. When is "later"? There are 7 people alive and you're telling us that if someone diverges we can just kill them later? How is that going to be possible when there are 2 people (sandroba and Mr. Wiggles) that everyone wants dead who are still alive? You went against the plan yesterday and sandroba is still alive and he shouldn't be. I'm not complaining that much because Palmar was my top suspect, but prphlz dying on top of that is suspect.
How are you expecting to hold people accountable if something bad happens? As I said before just by the numbers your little trio there has at least one mafia in it. Getting a townie lynched yesterday instead of just one mafia seems like an incredibly anti-town maneuver. Especially since there doesn't seem to be any more night kills.
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Katina you have done nothing this game. In fact, all you people who have been afk while "the little trio" lynched a scum from each team are looking really suspicious all of a sudden popping in like this and questioning us. We asked for your reads and for you to make cases on your reads, not for you all to come in and question our methods.
This goes for everyone, you WILL follow our plans or you WILL be lynched as scum.
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On May 20 2012 08:24 Katina wrote:Show nested quote +On May 20 2012 05:04 gonzaw wrote:On May 20 2012 00:39 Katina wrote:On May 19 2012 08:08 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:On May 19 2012 03:45 Katina wrote:On May 19 2012 03:39 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:On May 19 2012 03:35 Katina wrote:On May 19 2012 02:58 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
So gonzaw, ET, and myself have been doing the heavy lifting the past few days. I'd like to ask everyone who the final two scum are (we're not gonna worry about sandro right now since he's gonna die). Wiggles and someone else Who else? Well if I had figured that out or come to a conclusion I would have said so silly -_- Why are you so unwilling to contribute? You're rapidly approaching cephiro/VE level of uselessness. I'm not. I honestly don't know. Going by the votes it seems you would make the most sense for the last mafia on Palmar's team. But if we're going by behavior then I'm not going to point any fingers at you, which is why I haven't. I looked through Pick Your Power Interesting and you were very calm and passive in that game as mafia. It's nothing like what you are doing this game. I raise an eyebrow because you seemed gone/inactive days 2-4ish but on day 1 you were really active and since day 4 you've been here. So I'm not coming to point fingers yet until Wiggles and sandroba are dead and I'm more confident about killing you than anyone else. What do you think about sloosh then? You say you don't want to point fingers at MZ yet, but what about sloosh? Also, again, we won't do a multilynch today, we'll kill sandroba alone, so where each vote goes doesn't matter at all if everybody follows the plan It's posts like the one Sloosh made above that makes me sure he's town over anyone else right now.
Wait what? How does that post of his convince you he is town?
That post of his alone makes you think he's more town than me/MZ/ET? Even after we got 2 scum lynched (and will get one lynched soon enough)?
What about the rest of his posts? What about his behaviour? Is it enough "town-like" for you to think one of the "trio" is scum? If so why?
You two seem to have town reads on each other all of a sudden when you guys barely mentioned each other at all before.
Show nested quote +On May 20 2012 06:21 gonzaw wrote:Penalties! Anyways people. again, vote according to the plan. If someone votes differently we'll take it as a scum claim and we'll kill him later (like usual). I guess not much will happen until the flip, so let's enjoy the match! (hmm, I don't really know who to root for, instinctively I want Chelsea to win since I always watch the EPL, but I want Chelsea to lose since I will LOL so much since they'll miss the next year's CL and Spurs will go instead ) Now at this point I'm going to have to raise an objection. When is "later"? There are 7 people alive and you're telling us that if someone diverges we can just kill them later? How is that going to be possible when there are 2 people (sandroba and Mr. Wiggles) that everyone wants dead who are still alive? You went against the plan yesterday and sandroba is still alive and he shouldn't be. I'm not complaining that much because Palmar was my top suspect, but prphlz dying on top of that is suspect. How are you expecting to hold people accountable if something bad happens? As I said before just by the numbers your little trio there has at least one mafia in it. Getting a townie lynched yesterday instead of just one mafia seems like an incredibly anti-town maneuver. Especially since there doesn't seem to be any more night kills.
Obviously "later" refers to "tomorrow"
sandro will be lynched no matter what, and even if someone votes differently than the plan and outs himself as scum, we can easily get him lynched tomorrow.
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So I went back and looked at the voting for fun, and these are my thoughts on it. I'm working under the assumption that scum are only going to triple stack for a specific reason, and not just for fun, as there's too much risk, and not much reward, since after Foolishness died, no one has really brought up vote analysis. So, this is a vote analysis that I'm going to support with behavioural analysis as well.
+ Show Spoiler +
First, vote analysis says that Sloosh is more likely to be town, unless Scum decided to triple vote on day 4 or 6, which seems kind've ballsy for them that late in the game.
So, that implies that on Day 2, Mafia did a triple vote of "No", because the only choices for voting "Yes" against Palmar are me (a townie), and Sloosh (who the voting suggests isn't scum) on that day. Of the people left who voted "No" on Day 2, I'm going to pull out MZ, since I have a decent town read on him.
Of the people left (Gonzaw, ET, Katina), I think Katina is most likely to be scum. It also makes the most sense from the perspective of the triple "No" vote on Day 2, due to Katina pushing in the thread on Day 1 or 2 that scum would never triple vote because it's too risky. However, if this is actually the thought that's in the thread, then it makes a lot of sense to triple vote early on, because it will throw off voting analysis. Obviously the hypothesis that scum will never triple vote is false, since after taking myself out of the people who voted, it's impossible to avoid a triple vote. Either one happened day 2, or one happened later on with Sloosh. So, to me, it makes the most sense that it happened early, on Day 2 in this case, and that's also the day with the highest difference between the two groups besides Day 6, but no one has yet bothered to tell me if you were following a voting plan as a group then or not.
Here's a couple of quotes I found of Katina pushing a 2-1 vote as the only viable scum move.
+ Show Spoiler [Katina talking about a 2-1 split] +On May 01 2012 08:00 Katina wrote:Show nested quote +On May 01 2012 06:00 Ace wrote:On May 01 2012 05:53 Motbob is great wrote:On May 01 2012 05:46 Palmar wrote:
Yeah that's it. I'm going with 5 people pardoned:
Palmar, Syllo, Foolishness, Radfield and gonzaw (over prplhz) We're basically shooting shit right now because of you Palmar. First off, by just announcing to the thread which people you're pardoning, you're basically begging to have people jump ship and climb on the minority if they weren't on your magic list. Secondly... actually I really don't have much to say, your plan is just blatantly bad.Please read my posts and don't go with Palmar's plan. Flip a coin if you have to but don't do what Palmar is saying. It's like they haven't read the OP and don't realize that banding together is a worst-case strategy. Trying to form a block of Townies to pick out the remaining Scum is just dumb in this setup. Independence though? Awesome. What you are looking for in this game is a block of people that share votes and appear on the same wagon (Round A's question) more than once. With 3 Scum per team they can never ALL vote the same way for fear of ending up in the majority and having their votes tracked since they need to save each other. Hence a decent team will come to the conclusion of always voting 2 in favor of Yes/No and the lone vote out taking the opposite side. Then it's just a matter of figuring out if the Scum team have 2 players or 1 player in the Majority pool for Round B by seeing where they apply their "saving" votes. This game is simple. You people just aren't smart enough to grasp it. The mafia team will always be voting in the 2 to 1 method. However since there are two teams its a matter of figuring out where the two mafia are voting. On any given day each majority/minority will have either 2, 3 or 4 members. So for each faction, we need to figure out whether they have 1 or 2 members in the majority. Since mafia needs to save their allies they will always get at least some votes. So by comparing who is voting for who over the course of a few days it should give us some information. Furthermore it's unlikely that the same 2 Mafia members will be voting together every day most likely they will cycle through X and Y, X and Z, Y and Z, etc. As Ace said, this is a lot simplier than people make it out to be. <3 On May 01 2012 08:20 Katina wrote:Show nested quote +On May 01 2012 08:04 Cephiro wrote:On May 01 2012 08:00 Katina wrote:
The mafia team will always be voting in the 2 to 1 method. Most likely, yes. Always, no. I can very well see all 3 mafia members voting for the same option, especially in the early game. A vote or two from a few random townies that have been deceived in PM-Land (or even worse, publically in thread), tadah. No worries. There's no reason for Mafia to take that chance. You really think they can decieve people in PM's like that? Have you been deceived in PMs like that? People are flipping coins to decide votes, and I doubt anyone is actually listening to Palmar. Three votes for the same option is to obviously, especially so early where people are extra paranoid. They would try to leave a little of a connection as possible to each other. With that said, there is no reason mafia would take that chance. Thus we can always expect the 2-1 split. Then it's just a matter of looking at who is voting for whom and matching people up.
In addition, Katina hasn't really done much this whole game. She's tunneled Palmar for a while, but that's pretty much it. The thing about that, though, is she never made a hard push to get him lynched. She kept repeating that he was scum over and over, but that's not going to convince anyone to actually lynch someone unless they're just being dumb. Also, since she started on Day 1 or 2, by the time it realistically gets to a point where people would lynch Palmar, no one's going to take her seriously because anything she says can be written off as just tunneling. So, though she called Palmar scum, it didn't seem like it was meant to actually accomplish something. In addition, it seems like she's been riding the fact Foolishness called her town pretty hard. A lot of people seem hesitant to call her scum because Foolishness had a town read on her, similar to how people acted because Syllo called Palmar town.
From the starting point of Katina being on Palmar's team, that leaves us with ET and Gonzaw. ET fits into the voting pattern by only having the triple vote on Day 2. However, Gonzaw would only fit if scum triple voted on 3 separate days, which I find unlikely. So, that suggests that ET is the last scum with Katina. I've had some reservations about him, but I never thought he was scum so strongly I'd make a case. So, I'd rather flip Katina first and then see how that turns out before going more in-depth on ET, since the read on him is partially a continuation of the voting analysis under the assumption Katina is scum.
In conclusion, looking at the voting suggests to me that Katina and ET are the remaining scum on Palmar's team. This was built on the assumptions that scum will avoid a triple vote later into the game, and never attempt multiple triple votes. If those are incorrect assumptions to make, then players like Sloosh, Gonzaw, and maybe even MZ need to be reconsidered. Posting behaviour also suggests that Katina is scum in this framework. Before proceeding with ET though, Katina should be flipped, or potentially Katina along with Sloosh, though one would very likely flip town and it would be a 1 for 1 trade. I haven't done the math for player numbers for this yet though, so this could be a terrible suggestion if we can't afford to make that trade anymore.
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Wiggles, that spreadsheet is confusing as fuck.
I already made a spreadsheet with all the votes and shit just so people could stop wasting time making charts of their own (but apparently everybody ignored it)
Here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AlDOJgSVEnnPdGlhekd5dU9rVkdJZDlzWnFybmFSV2c#gid=0
Also, I don't really get when you say things like "yeah sloosh can't be scum because then scum woudl triple stack on Day 4 or 6" and shit because you don't explicitely state which mafia family you are talking about or the actual scum team you are talking about
You also don't mention any behaviour at all. Without taking voting patterns into account, do you think ET is scum and sloosh is town?
Anyways, I'm going out and I'll miss the lynch, so I'll leave MZ in charge of things until I come back.
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Night 7
Round B has concluded. The tally is as follows:
Mr. Wiggles (12) sandroba (5), EchelonTee (3), gonzaw (2), Katina (2)
EchelonTee (10) slOosh (5), Katina (3), Mr. Wiggles (2)
Katina (8) gonzaw (3), Mr. Wiggles (3), EchelonTee (2)
sandroba (0) Nobody
Illegal votes:
Warning for Meapak_Ziphh for failure to vote.
sandroba of the Harimoto cult has been lynched.
It is now Night 7. Night 7 ends in 24 hours at 8PM PDT (23:00 EDT (-04:00) your time). Please send in all your night actions before then.
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My apologies to the hosts for forgetting to send my votes. As is evidenced by gonzaw's votes, I would have voted for my assignment since we weren't planning on doing any funny business with this lynch.
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also dat flip, both scum teams only have one person left.
On behalf of Gonzaw, ET, and myself we're gonna again ask the remaining scum to just call it a game.
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I'm back.
Damn, it was expected that sandro was scum, but I thought he would flip Yokoya.
Even better! Now scum won't be able to win in a 2-2 situation, so we have even more chances to win.
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Little reminder for people:
As you can see, we were planning on killing sandroba alone all along.
The "weirdness" of the votes were a plan I came up with to "scare" scum. If Wiggles/Katina were scum, then they would fear that we would make a multilynch with them. If so, then scum would be more likely to panic, and maybe have scumbuddies dump all their votes unto them to save them, or just have people panic in thread, slip or go apeshit about it, etc.
Again, here are the "real" and "phony" spreadsheets:
"Real": https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AlDOJgSVEnnPdDgtUmVkVlQ3b2pKT1MtU0tEUWMyTHc#gid=0
"Phony": https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AlDOJgSVEnnPdDNVcjhEbGNKbUtaRjVfd1lJRklKR0E#gid=0
Me and MZ think it produced pretty interesting results.
...now however, it seems it produced another result as well:
Mr. Wiggles (12) sandroba (5)
We shouldn't trust sandro's votes since they come from confirmed scum. But if sandro and Wiggles were scumbuddies, then it would make sense they would fear the "trio" trying to get Wiggles lynched. Since sandro would get lynched as well, they would instantly lose, so perhaps they just went "all in" and decided to save Wiggles no matter what, even if it outted themselves.
Well, I'll discuss that with ET/MZ, you guys should give your opinions on the matter as well.
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What do you mean it produced "interesting results"? Anything other than the fact there was an attempted scare to try to save a mafia? Clearly it worked except you scared two townies instead of the mafia...
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EPT![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/OxPqx.png)
