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United States4053 Posts
WHOA I just caught up with this thread, and as I read through it, I noticed that Misder was a pretty big target, but he seems to have faded a bit due to a combination of the PM town/townie stuff and a bunch of other analyses. He also stopped being active despite being a big target. I initially thought Misder was just a slightly befuddled player, but some of his posts have made me rethink that.
On October 08 2010 10:51 Misder wrote:
I'm actually surprised not too many people are voting for me, considering the fact that I did contridict myself twice; once when I said that I vote with reason (well technically I did... intuition and my limited knowledge on how mafia players work) and once when I said that mafia members are the ones who die out into the thread (which I basically disappeared from). I'm such a good target for the mafia to start a bandwagon. I don't know if this is a good thing that the town is not impulsive or a bad thing that the town doesn't really like to do analysis... (well ghrur did, and i think he makes good points). And pretty much yeah, I took a shot in the dark, and I think I pretty much shot myself instead.
I find that this particular post doesn't actually say anything in his defense. If he's town, of course he should be apologetic for prior bad play (lol @ me :|). However, if he's mafia, he could try to get away with suspicious actions by calling them mistakes. This piece of a post just seems a little odd to me, because he's really pulling a roundabout defense.
On October 08 2010 11:03 Misder wrote:
Actually, I feel like I've been more active day 1 in this game than in the other games. But then I dropped off.
Pretty much, I agree with what everyone is saying about me not posting a list of who I think is mafia is true. The list comprised of intuition, however much that matters in this game. I think this game I've tried to analyse people from my perspective of being mafia, and didn't realize that other people think differently. Well, I don't know if you still want my list from day 1 since it doesn't mean much and most of its suspicion based on intuition, but it comprised of ~Opz~, DH, and Infund. Well, we know that infund is town, so that goes to show how bad I am at scum hunting...
And this may seem contridictory again, but where is kingjames? He was active day 1, and now hes gone.
I'm actually pretty convinced that OpZ and DH are both good guys too. "Analyzing" people that are mafia from your perspective implies that you had logic behind it - where is that? More contradictions, I think, or you just used the wrong word.
On October 08 2010 11:16 Misder wrote:
Also reading Pandains posts about my previous mafia game when I was townie actually surprised me. I didn't actually think I was contributing much in BMs game, probably cause Divenek was all like, Misder doesn't post enough and such, lol. Maybe I should start doing things I have done before... I actually don't feel like I'm taking a backseat in this game though. I feel more radical in this game than in other games where in other games, I only posted things I thought I had good evidence to and things that seemed obvious to me. And I should note that when I was mafia, I also answered why I voted for people. And that my analysis on larjarse was pretty much how I would write any analysis, besides the fact that I knew he really wasnt mafia, but I did that just like I would as part of the town.
Same tone as the first piece of post. Also, posting what you think you play like isn't very helpful; in fact, it just draws attention away from suspicious actions and continues to paint them as mistakes. Also, saying that you should go back to being a player who provides more evidence seems to imply that you know very well that your arguments are flimsy, or that it was done on purpose (the main thing that tripped my radar here).
On October 08 2010 11:55 Misder wrote:
I'm done, I think. If you guys truly believe I'm mafia, go ahead, lynch me. Again, the whole point is to lynch mafia. I'm pretty sure the points that were said that make me scummy were 1) I'm inconsistent and 2) I didn't back up my claims. Of course, these points are valid, but is it enough to say im mafia? If you are just lynching me because I'm a bad town player, then you're just hurting the town, and youre just wasting time while the mafia is hiding in the background, smiling at how they don't have to do any work, and just let the town fight with each other.
This is the Misder post that I find the oddest. The two points that Misder is "inconsistent" and "didn't back up ... claims" are just simplifications of "seemed to be hostile to everyone" and "offered no evidence in his attacks," two statements which are actually quite strong for a mafia vote in my opinion. Then, Misder goes on the guilt trip, saying "if you lynch me and I'm a townie, you're just going to hurt the town." Honestly, I'm second-guessing a vote for him due to that statement, but at the same time I find it pretty suspicious in tone.
I thought the contradiction against BC was pretty solid, but Misder's posts have raised a red flag in my head. I'm going to vote for him.
Also, I'm not sold on double lynching yet. If anyone (Pandain especially since he's lobbying for it the most) wants to give me a quick argument for double lynching (not who we should double lynch), I'd be more than glad to hear it.
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On October 09 2010 09:00 CynanMachae wrote:Show nested quote +On October 09 2010 08:50 kingjames01 wrote:
I posted this a while back and I gave you ample time to prepare a good defence. I even gave you a way out if you wanted it. You just had to admit that you made a mistake. At least that I could understand. There's so much going on, it's really hard to keep everything straight. However, you keep saying that even though you were in the lead, you didn't feel any pressure and that you could get yourself out at any time.
Why would I need time to say what went through my mind when I voted like I did. If you don't think that was the best descision, I'm fine with it. You are basically telling me right now that if I was mafia I could have taken an easy way out that you GAVE me so that I could explain my vote. Good job on trying to find mafias.
No, that's not what I'm saying at all. I never said that if you were mafia you would admit that you were wrong. I'm saying that you didn't make the correct choice during the voting process. If you knew you were innocent and wanted to stay in the game, then you would have voted someone else to the front of the line, especially since you couldn't know what role anyone else had. With no PM's no one should know what anyone else is going to do before it appears in the thread. You seemed to.
How did you know that even if you did not vote for Crisis_, you'd be okay? I just wanted you to confirm/deny/explain your actions. Your justification is that you could get yourself out later if you wanted to. If even one more person voted for you before you decided to vote for Crisis_, you would never have been able to avoid the gallows without intervention. Because of that fact, I am forced to vote for you. I held off my vote until I heard it from you directly. I'm playing to the best of my ability and at the moment, it's clear to me that something isn't adding up.
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Reasons for double lynch
1. We'll have enough info from today's lynch, this whole well of info we already have, a dt check, BM's result, and possibly a medic save.
2.In case BM is mafia
3. In case there is no vigi(doubtful though)
4. We really need to start lowering the mafia kp
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United States4053 Posts
On October 09 2010 09:32 Pandain wrote:
Reasons for double lynch
1. We'll have enough info from today's lynch, this whole well of info we already have, a dt check, BM's result, and possibly a medic save.
2.In case BM is mafia
3. In case there is no vigi(doubtful though)
4. We really need to start lowering the mafia kp
Good enough for me.
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On October 09 2010 09:32 Pandain wrote:
Reasons for double lynch
1. We'll have enough info from today's lynch, this whole well of info we already have, a dt check, BM's result, and possibly a medic save.
2.In case BM is mafia
3. In case there is no vigi(doubtful though)
4. We really need to start lowering the mafia kp
To go through with this is a calculated risk though. We're leveraging the possibility to sacrifice 2 more players to the mafia. I don't know if I can go through with that.
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On October 09 2010 09:34 kingjames01 wrote:Show nested quote +On October 09 2010 09:32 Pandain wrote:
Reasons for double lynch
1. We'll have enough info from today's lynch, this whole well of info we already have, a dt check, BM's result, and possibly a medic save.
2.In case BM is mafia
3. In case there is no vigi(doubtful though)
4. We really need to start lowering the mafia kp To go through with this is a calculated risk though. We're leveraging the possibility to sacrifice 2 more players to the mafia. I don't know if I can go through with that.
If you really don't think we can get two mafia by then....you don't have much faith in town lol. I think we can. We already have like 5 suspects, albeit I haven't yet analyzed the more expierenced players as of now. I think we'll snatch at least 2 of them.
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My suspect list:
I think the top suspects are those that receive accusation, and only surface when they're being threatened.
CynanMachine
Has been making mostly defensive posts with flawed arguments (sometimes even just brushing them off like they're not legitimate), some such as:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=151150¤tpage=43#845
ghrur
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=151150¤tpage=38#741
Talks a lot about how a red would play. People will relate others based on the role they actually are. They will think in that mindset.
Bill Murray
Ugh... a lot of spam, and an iffy plan...? I doubt there's more than one VI, and it seems like BM does this a lot in every mafia game he plays, so it's "normal" play for him. I'd just be okay with lynching him to get rid of the spam, but I know that's not really the best choice. I think he's more town than mafia.
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Also, my current vote for BM will most likely change by the end of tonight.
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Crisis, while your online, vote for double lynch
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On October 09 2010 09:37 Pandain wrote:Show nested quote +On October 09 2010 09:34 kingjames01 wrote:On October 09 2010 09:32 Pandain wrote:
Reasons for double lynch
1. We'll have enough info from today's lynch, this whole well of info we already have, a dt check, BM's result, and possibly a medic save.
2.In case BM is mafia
3. In case there is no vigi(doubtful though)
4. We really need to start lowering the mafia kp To go through with this is a calculated risk though. We're leveraging the possibility to sacrifice 2 more players to the mafia. I don't know if I can go through with that. If you really don't think we can get two mafia by then....you don't have much faith in town lol. I think we can. We already have like 5 suspects, albeit I haven't yet analyzed the more expierenced players as of now. I think we'll snatch at least 2 of them.
It's not that I don't have faith in us. It's just that there's some luck involved. The ideal situation would be for us to advance in this game without relying on luck. When we open up the question of Double Lynching we give the mafia a chance to control us. Also, 5 suspects doesn't equate to 5 mafia. This seems like a big chance we're discussing.
Why hasn't anyone else come out and explained why they are silent on this issue? This affects the entire game and I want to hear what some of the quiet players are thinking. It's like we're forgetting that we're having a conversation where everyone can read and manipulate.
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On October 09 2010 09:44 Pandain wrote:
Crisis, while your online, vote for double lynch
Okay, I'll consider it. Can you clarify this for me, though? Will the double lynch occur tonight or tomorrow if it passes?
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United States4053 Posts
On October 09 2010 09:49 Crisis_ wrote:Show nested quote +On October 09 2010 09:44 Pandain wrote:
Crisis, while your online, vote for double lynch Okay, I'll consider it. Can you clarify this for me, though? Will the double lynch occur tonight or tomorrow if it passes?
On October 09 2010 09:32 Pandain wrote:
Reasons for double lynch
1. We'll have enough info from today's lynch, this whole well of info we already have, a dt check, BM's result, and possibly a medic save.
2.In case BM is mafia
3. In case there is no vigi(doubtful though)
4. We really need to start lowering the mafia kp
On September 08 2010 13:30 BrownBear wrote:
Double Lynches
They exist, you can use them starting Day 2. When you want to use one, just vote for using it the next day, in addition to voting for a person. If a majority wants Double Lynch, it will happen.
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On October 09 2010 09:49 Crisis_ wrote:Show nested quote +On October 09 2010 09:44 Pandain wrote:
Crisis, while your online, vote for double lynch Okay, I'll consider it. Can you clarify this for me, though? Will the double lynch occur tonight or tomorrow if it passes?
tommorow, but we still get to lynch tonight.
On October 09 2010 09:48 kingjames01 wrote:Show nested quote +On October 09 2010 09:37 Pandain wrote:On October 09 2010 09:34 kingjames01 wrote:On October 09 2010 09:32 Pandain wrote:
Reasons for double lynch
1. We'll have enough info from today's lynch, this whole well of info we already have, a dt check, BM's result, and possibly a medic save.
2.In case BM is mafia
3. In case there is no vigi(doubtful though)
4. We really need to start lowering the mafia kp To go through with this is a calculated risk though. We're leveraging the possibility to sacrifice 2 more players to the mafia. I don't know if I can go through with that. If you really don't think we can get two mafia by then....you don't have much faith in town lol. I think we can. We already have like 5 suspects, albeit I haven't yet analyzed the more expierenced players as of now. I think we'll snatch at least 2 of them. It's not that I don't have faith in us. It's just that there's some luck involved. The ideal situation would be for us to advance in this game without relying on luck. When we open up the question of Double Lynching we give the mafia a chance to control us. Also, 5 suspects doesn't equate to 5 mafia. This seems like a big chance we're discussing. Why hasn't anyone else come out and explained why they are silent on this issue? This affects the entire game and I want to hear what some of the quiet players are thinking. It's like we're forgetting that we're having a conversation where everyone can read and manipulate.
Anytime you lynch someone, theres some luck involved. You could analyze a person who literally said "I AM MAFIA" but theres still luck(aka, he could be lying for some reason.) I don't see how mafia will be able to control us, as long as town doesn't randomly bandwagon someone in like an hour. I didn't say we need 5 mafia, but if we get two we lower their kp.
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On October 09 2010 09:32 Pandain wrote:
Reasons for double lynch
1. We'll have enough info from today's lynch, this whole well of info we already have, a dt check, BM's result, and possibly a medic save.
2.In case BM is mafia
3. In case there is no vigi(doubtful though)
4. We really need to start lowering the mafia kp
I agree with this. Tomorrow will be Day 3. I believe Day 3 and 4 will be critical for the success of our town, and we will definitely need to make the most use out of them possible. We also should have more than enough information by then since we have:
A. Such a bustling thread (despite some inactive people)
B. A voting thread to tally how people vote (Tonight's votes will be a boost of info too)
C. tons of info from what Pandain stated in #1.
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On October 09 2010 10:53 ~OpZ~ wrote:
##Vote Misder
This kid is apologizing for voting for me? Can we lynch him?
Only if you vote for double lynch.
Yes, I spam when I want something done. Now do it.
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On October 08 2010 10:51 Misder wrote:I'm actually surprised not too many people are voting for me, considering the fact that I did contridict myself twice; once when I said that I vote with reason (well technically I did... intuition and my limited knowledge on how mafia players work) and once when I said that mafia members are the ones who die out into the thread (which I basically disappeared from). I'm such a good target for the mafia to start a bandwagon. I don't know if this is a good thing that the town is not impulsive or a bad thing that the town doesn't really like to do analysis... (well ghrur did, and i think he makes good points). And pretty much yeah, I took a shot in the dark, and I think I pretty much shot myself instead. Well this is what I had a while ago, but I never posted "~Opz~ Ok, I’m looking at him from the perspective of Mafia XXX, the most recent normal game. In this game ~Opz~ was tracker. I guess this isn’t the most amazing analysis, and most people also act differently from a green townie and a blue, but I’ll try. In day 1, as a blue ~Opz~ told the town what to do, coming up with plans, participating in the actual crux of what was going on. Show nested quote +On August 07 2010 02:26 ~OpZ~ wrote:
Okay. Vigi should claim Day 2 IMO because he can't use his night kill til night 2. The vigi can openly suggest his target, meds protect target. If 2 people die that night, and dude is protected from a hit then BAM, we have a huge circle formed with meds confirming the vigi, DT's can openly claim to vigi or use a mouth, Bus Driver should stay hidden I feel...except to maybe the meds.
And if it is a mafia ploy? We'd have netted two mafia. The fake vigi claimer, and the dude who was hit by the vigi because he would have to have been protected. All medics should protect the guy getting vigi'd so they get the protection message, or mafia would have to use all KP to stop the plan, GIVING us quite a few more days... He never actually contributes in this game on Day 1, just blames all of the newcomers." So my analysis of him before was when he was a blue role, pretty much irrelevant... I didn't look back at games even older, when I should have. When I actually looked at him more in dept than my intuition and one day of the game where he was blue, I've come to a conclusion that ~Opz~ is most likely town. This is his quote from Mafia XXIII where he was actually townie. Show nested quote +On July 18 2010 15:34 ~OpZ~ wrote:On July 18 2010 08:12 Jayme wrote:On July 18 2010 08:03 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:
RNG lynch is dumb because you have more of a chance to land on a townie, and then he could be a helpful townie.
if we lynch an inactive we're killing someone who probably would not have helped us anyway
however, i don't want to lynch someone that would just get modkilled since that's obviously a waste.
Bill, how many votes can someone miss before they get zapped? As far as I know they can't miss any votes at all. We have more of a chance to land on a townie with any day 1 method we choose simply due to the fact that there are 24 townies and 6 mafia...there is no way of avoiding this. As a matter of fact I would say we have a better chance of hitting a good red player through RNG because I mean...who's to say that this "good townie" isn't just a red being a good townie. I understand lynching an inactive is killing someone who wouldn't have helped anyway but you're still doing just that...just about guaranteeing a green lynch which is completely pointless. As I said before I'm willing to go with either, there isn't much we could do. The issue I see with RNG is verifying if it's actually RNG. Actually....I'm done for this....Let me read a little more and we'll see who I want to die.... Also, I'm tired of these idiotic plans. We can pm. Dt, check someone PM them, pass turn, check someone PM them and the other person, pass turn. Quit playing like idiots and realize the benefits of having PMs....Nubby ass mafioso. And go back and look at games with PM's day one, no body does anything that day... The best thing I could say is everyone Roleclaim to me, and lynch me today...Or wait til tomorrow and do it. I'd inform of match ups, over counts, and die out as proof. How does that sound? I can send the PM out, and inform before death of everyone who doesn't respond, over counts of roles, ect. ect. I could be checked night one if that would be a problem, (wouldn't recommend organized multi checking though) and lynched day 2. Even if I was god father, god father would be out and too many blues to snipe with a list of roles and over claims. *yawn* But I don't really wanna die too bad, or abuse how easy this game could be. ~Opz~ has a condescending tone this mafia game, just like he does in this game. When I was reading through his posts in XXIII, its mostly yelling at people. Also, I believe that he is town because of he said that Artanis wrote Townie on his PM. If he was mafia, he wouldn't make such a huge claim. As for BM, I believe that he is VI. BM spammed most of Mafia XXX also, and he was ninja then. Question, what is the point of using an important vig shot on a supposed VI? Can't we just not lynch the VI and be done with? Or are we just afraid that then, mafia members can pose as VI and not get lynched? So question: Can't the mafia not kill BM if they believe that BM is not VI? Also, if BM is VI and tomorrow we double lynch him, don't we also lose? We're are depending on the mafia for this lynch to work, and I don't really like it. Also, mafia wouldn't be killing who they believe to be townies, and BM is definitely not playing like he is blue
This analysis is junk and you know it is too.
I don't get this magical intuition of yours. It sounds like you just made this up on the spot.
Only thing that's nagging me is that Pandian just bandwagoned you.
And Pandian for some reason has been bandwagoning whoever seems the most scummy at the moment.
Who knows, maybe Pandian is right
The double lynch question
Double lynch increases town Kp, it's like getting an extra day (okay there are some difference, ie we won't know the end result)
We can a) Follow up on two leads. b) Kill Bill Murray and someone else in one day.
VOTE DOUBLE LYNCH
On October 09 2010 09:34 kingjames01 wrote:Show nested quote +On October 09 2010 09:32 Pandain wrote:
Reasons for double lynch
1. We'll have enough info from today's lynch, this whole well of info we already have, a dt check, BM's result, and possibly a medic save.
2.In case BM is mafia
3. In case there is no vigi(doubtful though)
4. We really need to start lowering the mafia kp To go through with this is a calculated risk though. We're leveraging the possibility to sacrifice 2 more players to the mafia. I don't know if I can go through with that.
Note, Mafia killing has a 100% chance of hitting a townie. That's why town lynching is preferred
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CynanMachae and cSc have not voted
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On October 09 2010 11:22 SiNiquity wrote:
##Vote Double Lynch - <3 XeliN for pointing out we have unlimited (didn't notice that).
What is this? I'm pretty sure we only have two double lynches
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On September 08 2010 13:30 BrownBear wrote:
2 Double Lynches remaining
Interesting...
Anyways, why not use one now, we got a good plan to go with for BM
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On October 09 2010 11:32 CynanMachae wrote:Show nested quote +On October 09 2010 11:22 SiNiquity wrote:
##Vote Double Lynch - <3 XeliN for pointing out we have unlimited (didn't notice that). What is this? I'm pretty sure we only have two double lynches
Ack you're right. In that case I don't think we should be using them just yet. Going to go change it...
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EPT
