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Alright, I'm finally caught up. Weekends are just not for mafia, sorry guys.
This post is going to to a real review of what actually happened with respect to laguerta *not* getting lynched.
We'll start at Noon, January 14th (Forum time). Laguerta has 7 votes: Mandalor, Omni, Glurio, Shz, Oats, Moc and Zare.
Not long before this (okay an hour and a half but very few posts), Trotske posted this:
On January 14 2013 10:36 Trotske wrote:
I don't think laguerta is scum you guys are pushing a lynch claiming scum when he looks a lot more like a bad townie with no experience and is lazy.
what is with this bandwagon on someone who might as well be a lurker In fact a lurker would be a better lynch. I am going to keep my vote on the person who started this ridiculous vote.
At 12:02, Oats unvotes laguerta after reading his filter, stating "I dont see scum doing this, I really dont."
At 12:30, Omni unvotes laguerta due to "not enough of a fight from mafia..."
At 12:32, zare unvotes laguerta agreeing how easy it has been to vote him.
At 12:54, glurio unvotes laguerta agreeing about mafia's lack of defense.
At 12:59, Mocsta unvotes laguerta agreeing with all the above.
This is a fascinating snowball. Oats' unvote was due to "reading his filter" and while it isn't that well explained, is semi-reasonable. Omni unvotes strictly on the strength of mafia not backing up laguerta, which just isn't right. And so does zare. Any half-decent mafia WILL bus their teammates if they are as clearly awful as laguerta is. I’m not trying to claim that Omni or Zare are scum-oriented for doing this, I’m just saying their reasoning is flawed. Glurio immediately hops on the bandwagon of unvoting laguerta, and in the process also joins the lynch-mandalor (who turns out town) bandwagon. Trotske is, at the time, the only person with a vote on Mandalor. Last but not least, for no discernable reason Mocsta feels the need to swap over to Mandalor as well, sealing the deal (by a silly 3-2 vote o.O). That part is OK because I have come to expect an incredible amount of posts coupled with a complete inability to identify scum from Mocsta. Which sucks because it makes it hard to determine whether he is actively trying to be unhelpful or not. Right now I’m leaning towards just a clueless townie, since it seems like his heart is more or less in the right place right now.
So, back on topic. Trotske’s filter is incredibly defensive of laguerta, and includes the hilariously awful post that I put up top. His first defense of laguerta is that he is a bad, lazy townie with no experience. Then the good part:
[b] what is with this bandwagon on someone who might as well be a lurker In fact a lurker would be a better lynch. I am going to keep my vote on the person who started this ridiculous vote[b]
This is the scummiest thing I’ve seen posted all thread. He calls laguerta a lurker, then asks to lynch a different lurker. Then he calls the vote ridiculous after many others have given perfectly fine reasons for laguerta to be scum. Then he says that he is keeping his vote on the person who “started the vote (Mandalor, who at this point HAD NO OTHER VOTES).
So my takeaways are: A) Laguerta really should have been lynched.
B) He was, in fact, defended by the mafia: Trotske
C) Trotske is my lead scum read.
Oh yeah, the other thing is that if Trotske/zbezt/laguerta are in fact the scum team, which is my hunch ATM, then it actually looked like they were planning a bandwagon on me that never got started. Please understand that this isn’t an OMGUS, I’m merely looking at who defended Laguerta. Laguerta himself is clearly horridly incompetent and at least partially AFK so he wasn’t on that particular train. Zbezt ended up on me because he went to bed 6 hours before the voting deadline so wasn’t there to help out his buddy Trotske swap over to what was becoming an increasingly easy target: Mandalor.
Obviously this is pretty thin but this is my current list of suspicions/scumreads and my evaluation of the voting that got innocent mandalor lynched.
I’ll be more active through the week, but expect another fairly serious dropoff every weekend. Hopefully less bad than this one 
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To clarify, I'm not saying I believe those 3 are scum, just that that is one plausible scenario to explain the voting that happened.
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Okay fine, but seriously. Just read that post a few times, its HORRIBLE. Its emotional, nonsensical and in no way makes any sense from any townie perspective.
I'll quote it for ease:
On January 14 2013 10:36 Trotske wrote:
I don't think laguerta is scum you guys are pushing a lynch claiming scum when he looks a lot more like a bad townie with no experience and is lazy.
what is with this bandwagon on someone who might as well be a lurker In fact a lurker would be a better lynch. I am going to keep my vote on the person who started this ridiculous vote.
Even if he is right, and laguerta is just a bad townie, that post... Scum want to preserve the bad townies over the good ones I guess.
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On January 15 2013 03:33 shz wrote:
Spag, you are confirming Omni based on a meta-read? In a newbie game? I don't think that is very clever.
@Sno, since laguerta is on the bench for now, who would you vote for?
Currently Trotske but I'm going thru filters ATM. If I spot anything interesting I'll throw it out here.
I'd love to be rid of glurio as well but I don't think town has enough lynches left to do stuff like that (policy lynches) and still get all the mafia.
Pretty much everybody else has made SOME kind of contribution.
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I'd like Oats and co to explain the case against zebezt. I went through his filter and I'd like to hear from, well, anybody exactly which parts struck you as scummy.
Thanks.
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On January 15 2013 06:24 zarepath wrote:I am posting all of my reads right now because I'd like to do so before the end of N1 and I'm not confident that I'll be around/have the time to do so closer to the deadline. These are reads, not full claims, and so I welcome any argument/discussion about them. But they're all based on me reading through the entire thread, and the entire filter for each person. Shz + Show Spoiler +
Null read. Point for him is that he kind of tried to pull Oats and Mocsta apart from each other early on, and I think scum would have been happy for them to go at it. Although, that's an easy thing for scum to do. Meanwhile, a lot of his posts are very emotional or exagerrative, using words and phrases like "constantly," "baffled how people," "just that ignorant?", and he's obsessed with Mocsta's victim mentality. Another point for him is he's encouraged rational play a couple of times in the thread. Will watch.
Laguerta + Show Spoiler +He just seems very rough, and very inactive, but not in a tone that seems to imply intended inactivity, but one of pure laziness. It's clear he did not work very hard at his contributions Day 1, and that, combined with the ease of the Laguerta Lynch, suggests to me that he is TOWN. Sn0_Man + Show Spoiler +
His inactivity immediately puts him on the side of scum, then he has a full "review post" of the chaotic final hour of the lynch. His cases have not been rigorous, his biggest case (against Troske) involves a lot of association and hypothetical scenarios. But he's the only one really pushing Troske and it does seem like he's trying to figure things out. I don't see enough to put him firmly in one camp or the other, so I consider him someone to watch.
Oats + Show Spoiler +
I voted for him yesterday, but after going through his filter today, he oddly seems to be the most valuable townie we have right now. He has pressured more people than anyone else, which HAS led to discussion. I don't see scum motivations for his behavior other than the free use of his voting power, and erratically switching it around until he finally liked where it rested. That seems to fit with his play style, however, so I don't think that is enough for a scum read, even along with the fact that he was immediately aggressive towards Mocsta -- that seems to be a trend in this game, and it's not necessarily unwarranted. Feels like TOWN
Mocsta + Show Spoiler +
Has been as active as I would expect based on his meta, but he is a lot more defensive this time around. After reading filters, I would suggest that's because there are people here deliberately pushing his buttons. It's frustrating how his various defenses clutter the thread and half the time are filled with re-quotes of himself or others, and then there's also the fact that his vote sealed Mandalor's doom. However, I don't find it likely that mafia would switch their vote so that the FINAL vote for a lynch is one of their own. That does not seem like good scum play -- although as I noted earlier, if he were scum and resting his vote on Laguerta even after Oats yelled at him, that may look more suspicious. Perhaps he HAD to vote for Mandalor. However, he'd already suspected Mandalor earlier in the day. So I would not call him a confirmed town, but I still have an overall TOWN read on him.
OmniEulogy + Show Spoiler +OE has largely been a voice of reason this game when the last game he seemed a lot more emotional. Part of me worries that he was intending to be reasonable as soon as he becomes mafia, but his contributions have all been town-motivated from my perspective. He has pressured people, defended others fairly well, and done some thorough analysis. I have a slight TOWN read on him. Trotske + Show Spoiler +
I like that he called Acid out on trying to provoke emotion in the thread, as well as Snoman, and that he was the first on Mandalor (even though he was obviously wrong, he didn't a ride a bandwagon on the way there, unlike some others). He reads as a noob, and went out of his way to defend Mocsta's opening questions near the beginning. However, he has a low post count, went out of his way to criticize bringaniga multiple times (easiest target for the first half of the day), and just had bad voting logic (as snoman pointed out recently). He feels TOWN to me, but will warrant observation as he posts more and hopefully does some more analysis.
Acid + Show Spoiler +
Acid is very confident, and when he posts, it doesn't seem as though he's lurked as much as he has. However, everything he's posted has been very narrow-focused and antagonistic -- needlessly so. What gets me is his comment that Mocsta can't ask him any questions until Mocsta contributes more. Withholding information is pretty scummy, and his tunneling of Mocsta, the most active townie when we have around 5 lurkers, seems exactly like the kind of thing scum would want to do. It's not hard to push Mocsta's buttons and he's not alone in going after him, so it's a pretty safe thing to do. His reactions lack rigor; he's "baffled" by sno's vote. The number one thing that makes me think he is mafia is the fact that the time he was tunneling Mocsta the hardest was during the final hours before the lynch, when everyone is switching their votes, analyzing cases, trying to make new reads. What is Acid up to? Tunneling Mocsta, when Mocsta is nowhere near a lynch. He's not even trying to get others to vote for Mocsta, he's just going after him. Reads as SCUM to me.
zebezt + Show Spoiler +
He also called out unwarranted hostility in the thread, which is a town-motivated thing to do, but then suggested that other people ask questions instead. He didn't provide the questions, just said that other people should. He did a fairly interesting analysis of snoman and actually asked some discussion Q's of some people, which feels kind of townish. But he was one of those to take the easy road in pressuring bringaniga, he soft claimed on not having read scum guides, went out of his way to mention that someone would be modkilled (a non-contribution with no analysis), and went out of his way to take credit for his pressure on bringaniga earlier in the day (even though it was the easiest target in the world). I have a slight SCUM read on him.
glurio + Show Spoiler +
He calls Mandalor scum but he's "not quite certain" after reading the filter -- an accusation without committing to the accusation. He easy-picks Laguerta, lurks hardcore, continues to be suspicious of Mandalor without providing analysis or voting for him, calls Oats scummy a couple times without any analysis other than the fact that he's voted a lot (I did that too, of course), but finally switches from Laguerta to Mandalor ONLY AFTER it's clear that the town is leaving Laguerta. If the LAguerta lynch happens and he's still on it, he knows he's in trouble, so the reasoning for his switch? "mafia doesn't defend" The timing was very suspect, and set things up such that Laguerta could still be lynched without his vote staying there, and if someone moved with him onto Mandalor, that person would get the fall (Mocsta).
He's offered zero analysis, represented zero conviction with his votes, and his vote pattern looks the most suspicious to me of all of what happened yesterday. He also lurks hardcore. He is my number one SCUM read.
bringaniga/Spag + Show Spoiler +
I secretly hoped that bringaniga really had some algorithm because that would've been hilarious. Spag has seemed quite helpful since he's returned. AS this is essentially Day 1 for him, I have a NULL read until I see more, but nothing so far has smacked of scum.
Interesting. I'd like to see some direct comparison between laguerta and glurio and why one is a super-noob townie while the other is your #1 scum read. They seemed pretty similar to me, except laguerta took a lot more heat because he actually posted (a bit).
For those curious, I quite simply ignored the mafia game except for 5 mins to read the latest page and toss in my vote. I wasn't "lurking" or "couldn't take the heat". I'm happy to answer direct questions you may have.
With respect to Acid, I felt like he should be contributing a lot more, but the reason that I felt that was his analysis seemed very spot on when he posted.
Really, everybody needs to post more (except moc). This thread is pretty dead. Spag's little list of lurkers he would lynch is probably helpful to town, although I could see a scum Spag overcome with pity for how sad our little thread is. Hopefully it gets better day 2 once some blues have gone to work... And I hope the NK is informative as well.
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My other complaint about this game is that at least half of town are playing a TERRIBLE town game and that makes it really hard to weed out the scum who can fit right in with the bad townies. Although admittedly at least some of them are posting (more than can be said for others).
After all, we don't have forever. 12 living people and 1 lynch 1 NK means 2 deaths per cycle. Assuming 3 mafia (seems about right from the others I looked at) that means we need to start hitting mafia somewhere in our next 3 lynches or we lose. Faster, if there is an SK or a Vigilante who misses :/
It kinda makes it hard to pressure the lurkers 
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On January 15 2013 13:03 Spaghetticus wrote:@Sn0Show nested quote +For those curious, I quite simply ignored the mafia game except for 5 mins to read the latest page and toss in my vote. I wasn't "lurking" or "couldn't take the heat". I'm happy to answer direct questions you may have. WTFWTF Want a direct question? What the fuck is this? Am I interpreting this correctly? You just casually ignore the game with no excuse, not because you are lurking but because you DGAF? You’re off my day two LAL list, but you better be able to explain this or you’re a candidate for day three.
It was the weekend. I was ignoring mafia on the weekend. Essentially, we started at around the worst possible time, since I had nothing invested in the game to make me pay attention all weekend.
Now that the game has started, I expect to be present every day, including weekends.
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@Mocsta Spag is dead right about your contributions and approach to the game and if you can't see that then you will never progress past the same mafia player that lost NMM 34, almost single-handedly the way I read the game.
All the same, and while I'm hoping this isn't the case, I could totally see Omni and Spag being a scum team (who knows who the last one is). Nobody in town is trusted, motivated or skilled enough to get them both lynched by game end. It simply won't happen so if it is them then I'm pretty sure we lose.
I'm curious to see what zarepath has to say, not because Mocsta has a decent case but because I have some other suspicions. I'll have to reread too many filters in light of the NK.
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On January 15 2013 13:50 Sn0_Man wrote:
@Mocsta Spag is dead right about your contributions and approach to the game and if you can't see that then you will never progress past the same mafia player that lost NMM 34, almost single-handedly the way I read the game.
All the same, and while I'm hoping this isn't the case, I could totally see Omni and Spag being a scum team (who knows who the last one is). Nobody in town is trusted, motivated or skilled enough to get them both lynched by game end. It simply won't happen so if it is them then I'm pretty sure we lose.
I'm curious to see what zarepath has to say, not because Mocsta has a decent case but because I have some other suspicions. I'll have to reread too many filters in light of the NK.
To clarify, I'll have to reread too many filters to post any serious accusations now
Kinda left out the important part.
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On January 15 2013 13:45 Spaghetticus wrote:
@Sn0
See that you do. That was one of the single worst explanations for lurking I've ever seen.
TBH I'd have been substantially more excited/involved if I had a more interesting role. As scum I'd have been dead certain to keep up appearances regarding activity etc.
And I'd have been a lot more amicable to the loudest voice in the room at the time.
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I'm somewhat worried about Spag's LAL drive today actually. As much as I'd like everybody to contribute a serious amount (rofl just 2 pages overnight o.O), I'm not sure we have the time. If there are 3 mafia (or 2 mafia 1 SK), which seems reasonable for a 13 player game, we have exactly 1 free mislynch before GG (unless we have a JK/Doc who has sick reads on mafia/targets).
I mean, I'd love for everybody to be active, but I'm not sure that is gonna work. And spag, I know you are experienced, but that is the most WIFOM argument for Omni being town...
@zebezt: Any particular question you want answered? my answers have been: I was lurky because I ignored the topic. I questioned Mocsta day 1 because his questions were EXACTLY what I'd like to know about town if I were scum, and thats about that. I've identified players that I think are not playing in a logical, town-directed fashion, and that is about that.
@Moc the reason I haven't posted any additional detailed cases is that most of them were super-thin without the NK information. Now that I have both NK information AND time (gotta sleep every night), I'll make and post them.
Also, why exactly is laguerta being modkilled? I suppose we aren't supposed to discuss it but others have mentioned it a lot. He posted AND voted day 1 (which seems to meet all the requirements).
Last point: to everybody discussing the NK targets: Oats was clearly the target, since he accused pretty much everybody in the thread and some scum felt the heat. Mocsta will *never* get NK'd (see NMM 34) because he is loud as hell (distracting) and couldn't catch a scum if they accidentally posted the scum QT link in this thread. That or he is scum, and is relying on his history of enormous post count with 0 correct reads to get people to excuse his ridiculous play. I can't decide, but I'd rather have posters (him) alive over lurkers. At least his most recent post seems a bit more self-aware.
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Alright, I'd like to go over zare's mass review, which was posted pre-NK as a "last will" type post. My comments in bold
On January 15 2013 06:24 zarepath wrote:I am posting all of my reads right now because I'd like to do so before the end of N1 and I'm not confident that I'll be around/have the time to do so closer to the deadline. These are reads, not full claims, and so I welcome any argument/discussion about them. But they're all based on me reading through the entire thread, and the entire filter for each person. Hi guys I've contributed nothing but I'm totally worried about being NK'd for no reason that I can think of. Probably worried about being Vigi'd? Dunno but this post seems a bit weird. Not seriously off though, I can see townie zare writing thisShz + Show Spoiler +
Null read. Point for him is that he kind of tried to pull Oats and Mocsta apart from each other early on, and I think scum would have been happy for them to go at it. Although, that's an easy thing for scum to do. Meanwhile, a lot of his posts are very emotional or exagerrative, using words and phrases like "constantly," "baffled how people," "just that ignorant?", and he's obsessed with Mocsta's victim mentality. Another point for him is he's encouraged rational play a couple of times in the thread. Will watch.
Laguerta + Show Spoiler +He just seems very rough, and very inactive, but not in a tone that seems to imply intended inactivity, but one of pure laziness. It's clear he did not work very hard at his contributions Day 1, and that, combined with the ease of the Laguerta Lynch, suggests to me that he is TOWN. Sn0_Man + Show Spoiler +
His inactivity immediately puts him on the side of scum, then he has a full "review post" of the chaotic final hour of the lynch. His cases have not been rigorous, his biggest case (against Troske) involves a lot of association and hypothetical scenarios. But he's the only one really pushing Troske and it does seem like he's trying to figure things out. I don't see enough to put him firmly in one camp or the other, so I consider him someone to watch.
Oats + Show Spoiler +
I voted for him yesterday, but after going through his filter today, he oddly seems to be the most valuable townie we have right now. He has pressured more people than anyone else, which HAS led to discussion. I don't see scum motivations for his behavior other than the free use of his voting power, and erratically switching it around until he finally liked where it rested. That seems to fit with his play style, however, so I don't think that is enough for a scum read, even along with the fact that he was immediately aggressive towards Mocsta -- that seems to be a trend in this game, and it's not necessarily unwarranted. Feels like TOWN
On January 14 2013 12:35 zarepath wrote:
##Vote Oatsmaster
Has not been helpful towards town, was an active scum player in another game (so not necessarily a lurker scum), has unvoted FOUR times, most recently very late in the day when it was almost assured that Laguerta would be lynched regardless. His reasoning? "He's scummy but he's not here to defend himself. I'm gonna go vote for someone that nobody else is voting for and will definitely not get lynched, so when Laguerta flips town, I look good." (Okay, so not his literal read, but a possible motivation was thrown in there.)
His timing and his lack of reasoning worry me, and I find him to be far more likely to be scum than Laguerta.
Now back to his full review
On January 15 2013 06:24 zarepath wrote:Mocsta + Show Spoiler +
Has been as active as I would expect based on his meta, but he is a lot more defensive this time around. After reading filters, I would suggest that's because there are people here deliberately pushing his buttons. It's frustrating how his various defenses clutter the thread and half the time are filled with re-quotes of himself or others, and then there's also the fact that his vote sealed Mandalor's doom. However, I don't find it likely that mafia would switch their vote so that the FINAL vote for a lynch is one of their own. That does not seem like good scum play -- although as I noted earlier, if he were scum and resting his vote on Laguerta even after Oats yelled at him, that may look more suspicious. Perhaps he HAD to vote for Mandalor. However, he'd already suspected Mandalor earlier in the day. So I would not call him a confirmed town, but I still have an overall TOWN read on him.
OmniEulogy + Show Spoiler +OE has largely been a voice of reason this game when the last game he seemed a lot more emotional. Part of me worries that he was intending to be reasonable as soon as he becomes mafia, but his contributions have all been town-motivated from my perspective. He has pressured people, defended others fairly well, and done some thorough analysis. I have a slight TOWN read on him. Trotske + Show Spoiler +
I like that he called Acid out on trying to provoke emotion in the thread, as well as Snoman, and that he was the first on Mandalor (even though he was obviously wrong, he didn't a ride a bandwagon on the way there, unlike some others). He reads as a noob, and went out of his way to defend Mocsta's opening questions near the beginning. However, he has a low post count, went out of his way to criticize bringaniga multiple times (easiest target for the first half of the day), and just had bad voting logic (as snoman pointed out recently). He feels TOWN to me, but will warrant observation as he posts more and hopefully does some more analysis.
Acid + Show Spoiler +
Acid is very confident, and when he posts, it doesn't seem as though he's lurked as much as he has. However, everything he's posted has been very narrow-focused and antagonistic -- needlessly so. What gets me is his comment that Mocsta can't ask him any questions until Mocsta contributes more. Withholding information is pretty scummy, and his tunneling of Mocsta, the most active townie when we have around 5 lurkers, seems exactly like the kind of thing scum would want to do. It's not hard to push Mocsta's buttons and he's not alone in going after him, so it's a pretty safe thing to do. His reactions lack rigor; he's "baffled" by sno's vote. The number one thing that makes me think he is mafia is the fact that the time he was tunneling Mocsta the hardest was during the final hours before the lynch, when everyone is switching their votes, analyzing cases, trying to make new reads. What is Acid up to? Tunneling Mocsta, when Mocsta is nowhere near a lynch. He's not even trying to get others to vote for Mocsta, he's just going after him. Reads as SCUM to me.
zebezt + Show Spoiler +
He also called out unwarranted hostility in the thread, which is a town-motivated thing to do, but then suggested that other people ask questions instead. He didn't provide the questions, just said that other people should. He did a fairly interesting analysis of snoman and actually asked some discussion Q's of some people, which feels kind of townish. But he was one of those to take the easy road in pressuring bringaniga, he soft claimed on not having read scum guides, went out of his way to mention that someone would be modkilled (a non-contribution with no analysis), and went out of his way to take credit for his pressure on bringaniga earlier in the day (even though it was the easiest target in the world). I have a slight SCUM read on him.
glurio + Show Spoiler +
He calls Mandalor scum but he's "not quite certain" after reading the filter -- an accusation without committing to the accusation. He easy-picks Laguerta, lurks hardcore, continues to be suspicious of Mandalor without providing analysis or voting for him, calls Oats scummy a couple times without any analysis other than the fact that he's voted a lot (I did that too, of course), but finally switches from Laguerta to Mandalor ONLY AFTER it's clear that the town is leaving Laguerta. If the LAguerta lynch happens and he's still on it, he knows he's in trouble, so the reasoning for his switch? "mafia doesn't defend" The timing was very suspect, and set things up such that Laguerta could still be lynched without his vote staying there, and if someone moved with him onto Mandalor, that person would get the fall (Mocsta).
He's offered zero analysis, represented zero conviction with his votes, and his vote pattern looks the most suspicious to me of all of what happened yesterday. He also lurks hardcore. He is my number one SCUM read.
bringaniga/Spag + Show Spoiler +
I secretly hoped that bringaniga really had some algorithm because that would've been hilarious. Spag has seemed quite helpful since he's returned. AS this is essentially Day 1 for him, I have a NULL read until I see more, but nothing so far has smacked of scum.
Okay, so zare manages to review pretty well without coming off as overtly scummy anywhere. In fact, I agree with many of his reads. I still think that he hasn't contributed much and spent a lot of time sheeping, especially since few of his reads are terribly insightful (I'm aware none of mine have been either).
Now, to examine zare's votes.
+ Show Spoiler [Vote 1] +On January 14 2013 02:36 zarepath wrote:
##Vote Acid~
I am voting for a lurker for a couple of reasons:
1) If they haven't found reason to post yet, a push to lynch them had better; otherwise, we know that they will NEVER post
2) While I like to think scum would have posted by now, last game proves that isn't necessarily true; the worst lurkers are just as likely to be scum.
3) I worry that lurkers who are let go will continue to taint reads for the rest of the game -- the possibility of them being scum will always be in the back of town's minds, and scum can get away with "pressuring" them as a "contribution," and the thread will be stuffed full of lurker pressuring and absent of the lurker's discussion.
4) We will be absent of their contributions either way
5) Scum will know they can't get away with super-minimal contribution, and that the town is aware of how much they participate, potentially forcing them to post more
That's what's going through my head. I want to avoid getting wrapped up in the stupid OMGUSing and encourage others to be active in the thread. Right now the best way I see to do that is to punish the person who is contributing the least, and through inaction, acting directly against the town.
He starts off, 10 hours before lynch, with an Acid vote. His reasoning is: LAL, basically. He carefully got on the same lurker that Omni had voted (Omni's reason: I forgot about No Lynch). So far, a safe vote but not necessarily a scummy one. He made sure to justify this with a bunch of high and mighty town chest-thumping, but that isn't strictly scummy either.
+ Show Spoiler [Vote 2] +On January 14 2013 11:25 zarepath wrote:
I'm voting for Laguerta because of his inability to pick someone to vote for. Feels pretty scummy, and I haven't had a chance to do real thorough reads today. (NO, goverment didn't confiscate my laptop today, but Sundays are generally my least-available days.)
##Unvote Acid~
##Vote Laguerta
Acid will be modkilled, and while replacing him isn't necessarily a good thing, we do know Laguerta is spineless. So, there it is. I'll be doing a more thorough filter read N1.
Next up, he swaps to laguerta. With 0 posts between the 2 votes, but about 9 hours separating them, he quickly jumps on the current bandwagon. His reasoning: acid will be modkilled (untrue at that point, but could be an honest) and laguerta is spineless. How is "spineless" a townie reason to vote somebody?. Shortly after this he mocks Oats for posting something along the lines of "Scum are traditionally around at the deadline" (something that zare is carefully being), then starts calling off the laguerta train with a defense along the lines of: "7 votes are too easy, mafia must be on this train". This is part of what ends up saving laguerta so that we can lynch innocent mandalor, and this is also totally something a scum could say. "Mafia must be on this train, let me get off of it" is not necessarily right (again, I believe that if laguerta were mafia, his team would bus him if needed. He is clearly pretty useless. This attempt to save only comes around once Trotske has finished being highly irrational and the laguerta train is coming screeching to a halt.
+ Show Spoiler [Vote 3] +On January 14 2013 12:35 zarepath wrote:
##Vote Oatsmaster
Has not been helpful towards town, was an active scum player in another game (so not necessarily a lurker scum), has unvoted FOUR times, most recently very late in the day when it was almost assured that Laguerta would be lynched regardless. His reasoning? "He's scummy but he's not here to defend himself. I'm gonna go vote for someone that nobody else is voting for and will definitely not get lynched, so when Laguerta flips town, I look good." (Okay, so not his literal read, but a possible motivation was thrown in there.)
His timing and his lack of reasoning worry me, and I find him to be far more likely to be scum than Laguerta.
Now he is voting Oatsmaster. Not only is Oatsmaster the guy that got NK'ed night one, but his reasoning is "multiple vote flips" (welcome to the club zare). All of his reasoning on Oats applies to him, and this vote looks pretty scummy to me. He tries to start something on Oats because as scum he would LOVE to see a random 3-2 lynch save their NK for somebody whose NK would give up less info. Note how this is completely opposite his previous reasoning of LAL, as Oats is super-active. Also note how contrary this is to his N1 "reads" post above. A convenient flip flop that he tries to explain away, showing that he is afraid of how it looks.
And that is that for Zare. Long ass post I know. Not that my post is terribly cohesive or that it avoids "association cases" but this is what I think of zare right now. Much of what he has done could be explained as scum, and he certainly hasn't pressured anybody in a way that makes me think town.
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Forgot to mention, Zare's swap to the laguerta vote seems like a "get as many people killed as possible" swap which is a scummy motivation, although not too strong. Again, nothing is OVERTLY scummy about zare, just that reading everything he does does NOT lead to a picture that is town.
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I'd ask what other people think of
1) OmniEulogy. He compliments everybody (except oats) and is never willing to really present deep analysis except once, his clearly wrong case on Oats. He looks like he wants to be everybody's buddy.
2) Spag.
3) zebezt: His entire filter consists of: "Sn0_Man wont answer me. I think he is scum because he didn't like Mocsta's opening question and then went AFK" and "Mocsta OMG ur so right lemme restate ur posts"
To clarify, I'd love some sort of DETAILED reads on ANY of those 3 based on serious perusal of their filter (and in spag's case, take a glance at the bringaniga filter too).
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On January 16 2013 05:22 Acid~ wrote:Show nested quote +On January 15 2013 21:40 Spaghetticus wrote:
@Acid
I had assumed that when you did start posting, you would be continuing that pattern from now on. The Stuff you posted was seemed good, but you still have the smallest filter.
I know this is a backflip since you weren't on my list of people under pressure, but your complete lack of activity is giving you the smallest filter, and a town shouldn't feel that he needs to be pressed into doing town activity. I want to see more from you, so while this is a vote that does have intention to lynch, it is conditional in that I will remove it the second you start contributing properly again.
##Vote: Acid I'm fine with having the smallest filter. For now, I'm reading. I don't feel the need to make you privy to my every inane thought, so when I have something useful to say I will post. Until then, since nothing has changed in this regard: ##Vote: Zebezt
We'd rather be privy to your every thought, it helps us Identify who is and isn't mafia.
It also helps that I think you make decent reads, but you don't make enough... So I'd like to hear more. Lots more. I'm willing to bet that you *will* get lynched tonight if you don't post more analysis, and thats a shame because town can't afford many more mislynches (2 more mislynches = GG right now)
I'd also like to hear why Zebezt is *more* scummy than any other person (Trotske? zare? Laguerta? etc). Saying "nothing has changed" simply isn't true when we have had 1 mislynch and 2 townies NK'ed since you last gave any reasons.
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On January 16 2013 05:30 Acid~ wrote:
I also wanted to pressure Zebezt and have other townies look into his filter/behavior so they could either back me up or show me why I was misguided.
There was only one person who did this, and he was killed last night.
I've looked at zebezt's filter, and I wasn't impressed. However, I didn't see anything that screamed scum, and as I've said before there are so many townies playing this poorly that its nigh-impossible (for me) to really differentiate between bad townie and scum right now. Lots of other filters look dirty as well, and I'm guessing SOMEBODY on scum has been careful and kept a cleanish one, although 1 at a time is probably the right way to scumhunt.
If you want to pick out posts and go through them (possibly with context if needed) that are uniquely scummy, go ahead. Your previous post didn't do much of that.
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On January 16 2013 05:39 Trotske wrote:
I would still like some more talk about spag and zebezt.
Then talk. I've openly stated that I don't like zebezt's filter, but that equally other people (like you) have scummy filters too and that town are simply misplaying this game, if nothing else due to a lack of detailed analysis and general activity. If you see anything specific that you would like to point out, or even re-emphasize (preferably with quotes, maybe some contrast with "valuable" posts...), I for one would LOVE to hear it. If not, I don't have any nails to put in the coffin zebezt is constructing for himself so I'll just leave it be.
My thoughts on spag: I could totally see him being part of a fairly specific scum team but I can't see him getting lynched any time soon so I'm not wasting my time. If nothing else, he is stimulating posts which are a resource town MUST HAVE to win. And all his posts look townie, you have to be really skeptical/hypothetical to see a scum underlay. Too much "master plan/conspiracy theory" not enough "hey look its obvious he is scum" for me to make a real case against him.
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On January 16 2013 15:20 Spaghetticus wrote:
My review of Sn0_Man’s review of Zarepath’s review
I think you (Sn0) overestimate how much Mocsta by himself damages town. It may be true that he threw one game away, but the forward trajectory he lends town is valuable. He might be in a bit of a rut ATM due to harsh assessment, but as town I will always decide to keep him around until at least day 3 or 4 (not a soft-claim, when I am town I always keep Mocsta around despite our in-fighting). I actually like Zare’s initial post more than your response to it. Nobody called anyone 10/10 town, and Zare’s post is actually a very clear analysis that I can’t find anything to add to.
I agree that Mocsta is (was?) valuable to town simply due to the volume of his posts and the counter-contributions that they instigated. I'm not voting to lynch him, because I'm at least partially on the LAL train and that pretty much precludes Mocsta (although he hasn't posted a lot recently...). That doesn't change the basement-tier quality of most of his reasoning. Day 3 I'll do a full assessment on him pointing out the worst weakpoints, but for now I'd rather have him in the game as well. Unless he clams up for the next ~16 hours.
I'm not on the LAL train far enough to merely lynch the lowest post-count. We simply do not have enough mislynches left for that to be a winning strategy IMO. The vig missing N1 was brutal for us.
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To clarify above, I want to lynch somebody who is low-contribution (especially recently) but I'm not voting, for example, Acid, because I have a town read on him even though he doesn't post enough for me to be happy with him. Even if he had the least posts by a margin, I'd still not vote for him ATM. If everybody else somehow picked it up... then we would have to see.
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EPT
