It's impossible for Stars to qualify over SKT or CJ though. Stars has 26 wins and only two more matches, while SKT and CJ already have 3 more wins. Stars can make playoffs if FOX loses both of its remaining games, Stars wins both of its remaining games. Actually, if this is the case it doesn't matter what OZ does since the max differential increase for OZ is +9, bringing OZ's differential to 8. Stars with a 12 differential currently can just use that to secure its spot if this happens.

Of course, with FOX facing ACE and KHAN I see them winning at least one of the games, even if Stars can win both its games against eSTRO and a slumping STX. In that case, FOX will have secured a spot in playoffs due to differentials.

polgas

Canada1765 Posts

July 04 2010 06:39 GMT

#203

Hey no problem. ^^

GenesisX

Canada4267 Posts

July 04 2010 06:48 GMT

#204

Ty for Analysis! Keep updating please!

I really hope OZ makes it! Jaedong fighting!

Jackal03

Brazil7469 Posts

July 04 2010 06:51 GMT

#205

CJ didn't disappoint

TheYango

United States47024 Posts

July 04 2010 07:23 GMT

#206

On July 04 2010 15:33 jalstar wrote:
SKT, CJ, and WeMade are not safe. OZ and Stars still have a chance to qualify.

Hwaseung pushing out SKT is extremely unlikely. Even if Hwaseung wins 3 and SKT loses both its matches, it comes down to win differentials. SKT can 1-3 both remaining matches, and still come out ahead, regardless of how Hwaseung does.

polgas

Canada1765 Posts

July 05 2010 14:56 GMT

#207

After MBC vs. CJE, EST vs. HIT:

1.  KTR 36-16 (+46) SAM, MBC, HIT
2.  STX 32-21 (+10) WJN, SKT
3.  MBC 31-22 (+18) KTR, HWA
4.  SKT 29-24 (+12) HWA, STX
5.  CJE 29-25 ( +4) ACE
6.  WEM 28-25 (+15) ACE, SAM
----------------------------
7.  HWA 26-26 ( -1) SKT, HIT, MBC
8.  WJN 26-27 (+12) STX, EST
9.  SAM 26-27 (-13) KTR, WEM
10. EST 23-31 ( -9) WJN
11. HIT 22-31 (-19) HWA, KTR
12. ACE 10-43 (-81) WEM, CJE

NobleHelium

United States82 Posts

July 05 2010 16:19 GMT

#208

So what's the next tiebreaker if differentials are the same?

vishrut

United States567 Posts

July 05 2010 16:39 GMT

#209

oz's best hope is for ace to beat cj. they might be able to catch up if they can win all three. I doubt samsung will send out anyone decent (because they are already out) against wemade so oz has to try overtaking cj

FiWiFaKi

Canada9859 Posts

July 05 2010 16:58 GMT

#210

Hmm, well I feel like Oz still has a chance to qualify. Either CJ loses their game to Ace, which I still think CJ is a heavy favorite on, but a 4 win streak is pretty convincing. OR WeMade FOX loses both of their games, one versus ace which worries me, and the second versus Khan. Khan I feel is the favorite there since Stork and Jangbi are PvT beasts. Also Great isnt half bad in ZvT. Its just up to ACE and Oz ofcourse, and Oz has SKT AND MBC to worry about, and I cant say I heavily favor them. SKT IS safe. There is simply no way that SKT wont get ateast 2 wins in their next two games. Id say Hiya is maybe a little better than Best, but Killer/BackHo are far worse than any of the regular line up of SKT. I think its very likely ATLEAST Bisu and Fanta will take a game. And they are playing STX too, isnt STX on a 7 game losing? Id worry for WeMade to lose CJ feels safe in my book.

Another good battle though is for second, if they play like now MBC has a good shot. And if its same point differential, highest head to head record secures the spot, though it hasnt happened before.

baller

527 Posts

July 05 2010 17:01 GMT

#211

On July 06 2010 01:19 NobleHelium wrote:
So what's the next tiebreaker if differentials are the same?

average team height, and if thats the same, average reputation as a cheapskate

Trezeguet

United States2656 Posts

July 05 2010 17:04 GMT

#212

LETS GO ACE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Seriously though, I really do think that OZ has a chance. Sure it is slim, but if ACE win 3-1 then CJ will be 29-26 +2. That means that OZ just has to win it's remaining 3 matches to pull to 29-26 as well and that means that they will at the very least be +2. If CJ loses in an ace to ACE then oz would just need to win one of the last three 3-1. I wonder what the following tiebreaker is....

Plexa

Aotearoa39261 Posts

July 05 2010 17:11 GMT

#213

On July 06 2010 01:58 Skillz_Man wrote:
Another good battle though is for second, if they play like now MBC has a good shot. And if its same point differential, highest head to head record secures the spot, though it hasnt happened before.

Since when? I thought it was an extra ace match? (which has happened before, khan vs ktf a long time ago where Reach beat Stork iirc)

flamewheel

FREEAGLELAND26782 Posts

July 05 2010 19:32 GMT

#214

After MBC vs. CJE, EST vs. HIT:

1.  KTR 36-16 (+46) SAM, MBC, HIT
2.  STX 32-21 (+10) WJN, SKT
3.  MBC 31-22 (+18) KTR, HWA
4.  SKT 29-24 (+12) HWA, STX
5.  CJE 29-25 ( +4) ACE
6.  WEM 28-25 (+15) ACE, SAM
----------------------------
7.  HWA 26-26 ( -1) SKT, HIT, MBC
8.  WJN 26-27 (+12) STX, EST
9.  SAM 26-27 (-13) KTR, WEM
10. EST 23-31 ( -9) WJN
11. HIT 22-31 (-19) HWA, KTR
12. ACE 10-43 (-81) WEM, CJE

Hmmm so let's see. KHAN at this point is out I think. WeMade holds the 6 spot and even losing 0-3 0-3 in their last two matches (losing 0-3 to ACE would be massive lulz though) FOX would still be at 28-27 (+9) while KHAN can only win 3-0 3-0 to bring them to a final 28-27 (-7). I mean though, we already knew that whichever one between OZ and KHAN lost the head-to-head would be out completely.

For Stars to qualify, they have to win their last two games and FOX has to lose their last two games. The differentials won't matter at that point since if FOX loses both of its games there's a guaranteed -2 at least and the opposite (minimum +2) for Woongjin also holds true. For this to happen conclusively though, Stars needs OZ to lose at least one game, since after that the differential between OZ and Stars will lead Stars to victory.

OZ could potentially still kick CJ or FOX (or SKT lolol) out. CJ has one more game against ACE and it's going to be (can't believe I'm saying this) close. I can think of some advantageous matchups for ACE involving RuBy > EffOrt and Reach/Much/Anytime > sKyHigh, though despite their recent run ACE is still the underdog. If CJ loses though and OZ wins its next three games, OZ can overtake CJ if the differential difference shifts by at least 6, so CJ 1-3 ACE and OZ 3-2 3-0 (lol hite) 3-2 would do it. To overtake FOX, OZ has to hope WeMade loses its last two games while winning all three of its own. If OZ loses one game, then the differential favours WeMade since the most FOX can lose is -6, bringing them to +9, and the most OZ can gain with losing one game (2-3 3-0 3-0 <=lol Killer ACE 2-3 match) is +5, which isn't enough to overcome a 16 point differential. Of course, in this purely hypothetical world OZ can also take out SKT if they 3-0 SKT tonight and 3-0 3-0 their next two games while SKT goes 0-3 or 1-3. That puts OZ at 29-26 (+8) and SKT at 29-26 (+7). That's as likely to happen as Killer winning an Ace match.

In other news MBC could overtake STX for the #2 spot. STX plays Stars and SKT so they could potentially finish the last two games 0-2. and as long as MBC wins one more game than STX does in these last two its differential will give MBC the #2 spot and a road to the semifinals. Given how much STX sucks this round, I wouldn't be surprised to see that happen.

matjlav

Germany2435 Posts

July 05 2010 20:34 GMT

#215

MBC will get #2! gogogo~

swanized

Canada2480 Posts

July 06 2010 02:41 GMT

#216

changing my woonjing tag for an ACE tag for this week.

in ACE I trust

Arite

United States218 Posts

July 06 2010 03:12 GMT

#217

On July 06 2010 11:41 swanized wrote:
changing my woonjing tag for an ACE tag for this week.

Says the guy who currently has an Oz tag.

McDonalds

Liechtenstein2244 Posts

July 06 2010 06:19 GMT

#218

I wouldn't be surprised if Woongjin won their last two sets but I'm not sure if it is possible for WeMade to lose both of theirs unless they play like they did in the last one. Meanwhile I doubt that Oz will be able to win more than two out of three with opponents like that.

pvzvt

Israel2097 Posts

July 06 2010 06:52 GMT

#219

On July 06 2010 15:19 McDonalds wrote:
I wouldn't be surprised if Woongjin won their last two sets but I'm not sure if it is possible for WeMade to lose both of theirs unless they play like they did in the last one. Meanwhile I doubt that Oz will be able to win more than two out of three with opponents like that.

i know its a bit of hibris but hite is a free win for oz
oz is favorit to win skt and mbc will be hard to beat
but thinking of what on the stakes i cant see oz not fighting till the last breath while other teams face less horrific situation like mbc or hite (out of the playoff )

McDonalds

Liechtenstein2244 Posts

July 06 2010 07:15 GMT

#220

Well, Oz knew what they were fighting for in their match with Ace too, and look what happened there. I don't really know how motivated Hite, SKT or MBC are. I guess we'll just have to find out.