I say Maru takes this series. Im going to go with 4-3.
Marus mental state must be very strong right now. He's coming from a strong placing in Katowice, winning a wesg for lots of money and now his first GSL finals. Whatever he is doing, it's working!!
Stats on the other hand has something to prove. From first seed in 2017 to getting knocked out of the major tournaments on 2018 but still doing well in GSL.
Just in terms of perceived mental states, I'd say Maru has the upper hand by a long shot.
On another note, I think tvp is Marus worst matchup ATM, but still his TvP builds are freaking amazing. He's got a very unique style imo with fast reactor factory to deal w early game and a great eng 2nd 3rd rax and starport timings. I don't think Maru is going to loose a lot of early games and the longer a game goes the more I'd give it to Maru, despite the match up.
The lack of Maru TvP games in recent weeks makes this one such a mystery. I can totally see him showing up with TvP that's equally strong as his TvZ and taking this series 4-1 or 4-2. On the other hand, I'm always spooked by weird intangible factors in the GSL (soO's 2nd place curse etc.), and Stats' ability to be poor in EVERY other tournament yet triumph in the GSL makes me wonder if he can do it again.
On March 29 2018 02:57 Waxangel wrote: The lack of Maru TvP games in recent weeks makes this one such a mystery. I can totally see him showing up with TvP that's equally strong as his TvZ and taking this series 4-1 or 4-2. On the other hand, I'm always spooked by weird intangible factors in the GSL (soO's 2nd place curse etc.), and Stats' ability to be poor in EVERY other tournament yet triumph in the GSL makes me wonder if he can do it again.
I don't think any terran player right now is as strong in TvP as they are in TvZ. Maru's winrate vs korean protoss since 4.0 is 42%. Stats' winrate vs korean terran since 4.0 is 71%. Stats is massively favoured in this final and no one seems to recognise it.
(I exclude the non koreans because Maru stomped plenty of them at IEM/WeSG, it inflated his winrate).
On March 29 2018 02:39 TW wrote: Mary has SOS in team house. He will prepare insenely good as he did with Rouge. Stats doesnot have such comfort. Unless TY helps him a lot.
Recently on stream Stats has had Inno, TY, and Bunny over, I think he has a fine selection of practice partners. Maru doesn't as much, Creator isn't as good and sOs doesn't even try playing normal games against him.
On March 29 2018 02:57 Waxangel wrote: The lack of Maru TvP games in recent weeks makes this one such a mystery. I can totally see him showing up with TvP that's equally strong as his TvZ and taking this series 4-1 or 4-2. On the other hand, I'm always spooked by weird intangible factors in the GSL (soO's 2nd place curse etc.), and Stats' ability to be poor in EVERY other tournament yet triumph in the GSL makes me wonder if he can do it again.
I don't think any terran player right now is as strong in TvP as they are in TvZ. Maru's winrate vs korean protoss since 4.0 is 42%. Stats' winrate vs korean terran since 4.0 is 71%. Stats is massively favoured in this final and no one seems to recognise it.
(I exclude the non koreans because Maru stomped plenty of them at IEM/WeSG, it inflated his winrate).
On March 29 2018 02:39 TW wrote: Mary has SOS in team house. He will prepare insenely good as he did with Rouge. Stats doesnot have such comfort. Unless TY helps him a lot.
Recently on stream Stats has had Inno, TY, and Bunny over, I think he has a fine selection of practice partners. Maru doesn't as much, Creator isn't as good and sOs doesn't even try playing normal games against him.
Losing to souL didn't do much good to Stats' PvT reputation (even if those were cyclone cheese games).
On March 29 2018 02:57 Waxangel wrote: The lack of Maru TvP games in recent weeks makes this one such a mystery. I can totally see him showing up with TvP that's equally strong as his TvZ and taking this series 4-1 or 4-2. On the other hand, I'm always spooked by weird intangible factors in the GSL (soO's 2nd place curse etc.), and Stats' ability to be poor in EVERY other tournament yet triumph in the GSL makes me wonder if he can do it again.
I don't think any terran player right now is as strong in TvP as they are in TvZ. Maru's winrate vs korean protoss since 4.0 is 42%. Stats' winrate vs korean terran since 4.0 is 71%. Stats is massively favoured in this final and no one seems to recognise it.
(I exclude the non koreans because Maru stomped plenty of them at IEM/WeSG, it inflated his winrate).
On March 29 2018 02:39 TW wrote: Mary has SOS in team house. He will prepare insenely good as he did with Rouge. Stats doesnot have such comfort. Unless TY helps him a lot.
Recently on stream Stats has had Inno, TY, and Bunny over, I think he has a fine selection of practice partners. Maru doesn't as much, Creator isn't as good and sOs doesn't even try playing normal games against him.
Losing to souL didn't do much good to Stats' PvT reputation (even if those were cyclone cheese games).
They were borderline build-order-wins. Although Stats handled them very badly, it doesn't say anything about his standard game. Stats losing like that is just midleading and gives everyone the impression he's weaker than he truly is.
(at the same time, Maru stomped a bunch of foreign protoss in that tournament but didn't look particularly strong doing it, I'd actually go as far to say Stats looked just as good in PvT as Maru did at that time).
On March 29 2018 02:57 Waxangel wrote: The lack of Maru TvP games in recent weeks makes this one such a mystery. I can totally see him showing up with TvP that's equally strong as his TvZ and taking this series 4-1 or 4-2. On the other hand, I'm always spooked by weird intangible factors in the GSL (soO's 2nd place curse etc.), and Stats' ability to be poor in EVERY other tournament yet triumph in the GSL makes me wonder if he can do it again.
I don't think any terran player right now is as strong in TvP as they are in TvZ. Maru's winrate vs korean protoss since 4.0 is 42%. Stats' winrate vs korean terran since 4.0 is 71%. Stats is massively favoured in this final and no one seems to recognise it.
(I exclude the non koreans because Maru stomped plenty of them at IEM/WeSG, it inflated his winrate).
On March 29 2018 02:39 TW wrote: Mary has SOS in team house. He will prepare insenely good as he did with Rouge. Stats doesnot have such comfort. Unless TY helps him a lot.
Recently on stream Stats has had Inno, TY, and Bunny over, I think he has a fine selection of practice partners. Maru doesn't as much, Creator isn't as good and sOs doesn't even try playing normal games against him.
Losing to souL didn't do much good to Stats' PvT reputation (even if those were cyclone cheese games).
They were borderline build-order-wins. Although Stats handled them very badly, it doesn't say anything about his standard game. Stats losing like that is just midleading and gives everyone the impression he's weaker than he truly is.
(at the same time, Maru stomped a bunch of foreign protoss in that tournament but didn't look particularly strong doing it, I'd actually go as far to say Stats looked just as good in PvT as Maru did at that time).
With his PvT not looking that solid, I still wouldn't consider him massively favoured though. Favoured? Probably. Massively favoured? Maru knows how to build cyclones too.
On March 29 2018 02:57 Waxangel wrote: The lack of Maru TvP games in recent weeks makes this one such a mystery. I can totally see him showing up with TvP that's equally strong as his TvZ and taking this series 4-1 or 4-2. On the other hand, I'm always spooked by weird intangible factors in the GSL (soO's 2nd place curse etc.), and Stats' ability to be poor in EVERY other tournament yet triumph in the GSL makes me wonder if he can do it again.
I don't think any terran player right now is as strong in TvP as they are in TvZ. Maru's winrate vs korean protoss since 4.0 is 42%. Stats' winrate vs korean terran since 4.0 is 71%. Stats is massively favoured in this final and no one seems to recognise it.
(I exclude the non koreans because Maru stomped plenty of them at IEM/WeSG, it inflated his winrate).
On March 29 2018 02:39 TW wrote: Mary has SOS in team house. He will prepare insenely good as he did with Rouge. Stats doesnot have such comfort. Unless TY helps him a lot.
Recently on stream Stats has had Inno, TY, and Bunny over, I think he has a fine selection of practice partners. Maru doesn't as much, Creator isn't as good and sOs doesn't even try playing normal games against him.
Losing to souL didn't do much good to Stats' PvT reputation (even if those were cyclone cheese games).
They were borderline build-order-wins. Although Stats handled them very badly, it doesn't say anything about his standard game. Stats losing like that is just midleading and gives everyone the impression he's weaker than he truly is.
(at the same time, Maru stomped a bunch of foreign protoss in that tournament but didn't look particularly strong doing it, I'd actually go as far to say Stats looked just as good in PvT as Maru did at that time).
Stats is 13-7 vs korean terrans since the beginning of the year with wins against bunny (4-0), cure (3-0), ryung (2-1) and dwarf (2-0) while he lost vs alive, byun and maru.
Maru is 19-25 with wins (and losses) vs better protoss players comparatively.
In no way is Stats massively favored, one could even argue maru might be favored slightly. Hard to say really, but stats' recent pvt results aren't exactly impressive either.
On March 29 2018 02:57 Waxangel wrote: The lack of Maru TvP games in recent weeks makes this one such a mystery. I can totally see him showing up with TvP that's equally strong as his TvZ and taking this series 4-1 or 4-2. On the other hand, I'm always spooked by weird intangible factors in the GSL (soO's 2nd place curse etc.), and Stats' ability to be poor in EVERY other tournament yet triumph in the GSL makes me wonder if he can do it again.
I don't think any terran player right now is as strong in TvP as they are in TvZ. Maru's winrate vs korean protoss since 4.0 is 42%. Stats' winrate vs korean terran since 4.0 is 71%. Stats is massively favoured in this final and no one seems to recognise it.
(I exclude the non koreans because Maru stomped plenty of them at IEM/WeSG, it inflated his winrate).
On March 29 2018 02:39 TW wrote: Mary has SOS in team house. He will prepare insenely good as he did with Rouge. Stats doesnot have such comfort. Unless TY helps him a lot.
Recently on stream Stats has had Inno, TY, and Bunny over, I think he has a fine selection of practice partners. Maru doesn't as much, Creator isn't as good and sOs doesn't even try playing normal games against him.
Losing to souL didn't do much good to Stats' PvT reputation (even if those were cyclone cheese games).
They were borderline build-order-wins. Although Stats handled them very badly, it doesn't say anything about his standard game. Stats losing like that is just midleading and gives everyone the impression he's weaker than he truly is.
(at the same time, Maru stomped a bunch of foreign protoss in that tournament but didn't look particularly strong doing it, I'd actually go as far to say Stats looked just as good in PvT as Maru did at that time).
Stats is 13-7 vs korean terrans since the beginning of the year with wins against bunny (4-0), cure (3-0), ryung (2-1) and dwarf (2-0) while he lost vs alive, byun and maru.
Maru is 19-25 with wins (and losses) vs better protoss players comparatively.
In no way is Stats massively favored, one could even argue maru might be favored slightly. Hard to say really, but stats' recent pvt results aren't exactly impressive either.
A 62% vs 42% winrate is pretty significant. Even if Maru generally had harsher opponents. I don't believe for one second that Stat's PvT is particularly weaker either. Especially here when he performs much better in GSL than other events.
Sorry but the lvl of opposition in both these is so different that the win% alone means almost nothing. Bunny is really bad in tvp, cure is cure and ryung isn't known for tvp either. He lost vs "better" tvp player in maru, byun and alive. It's extremely unimpressive
EPT
