SSL Premier Week 4

As Week 4 dawns on us, the race for the playoff spots sees no signs of stopping. Players are starting to get a feel for the format, and predictions for the eventual winners and losers are starting to form.

Five Conclusions

1. Two weeks ago, aLive forfeited his match in lieu of Ting Season 3. Despite the 4-0 battering he took from GuMiho there, his trip to the US seems to have rejuvenated him somehow, as he both defeated Dark and reached the finals in the GSL Super Tournament. Despite his current 1-2 standing, including a painful 2-5 map score, his run through the GSL Super Tournament cemented our impressions from Katowice of a player returning to heights we haven’t seen in years. Signing with mYi, taking down Dark, and reaching the weekender grand finals might just be the edge he needs to start climbing the ranks again.
   
   
2. INnoVation’s match against Maru showed exactly why he's been considered the absolute best Terran player for 2017 so far. It's notable that so many of INnoVation's 'lowlights' have come during cheese scenarios; either from others (SoulKey's infamous triplet of roach rushes; Maru's similar mental disintegration routine in the OSL) or from himself (that thor rush at BlizzCon 2014), and INnoVation to deal with some extremely weird situations so casually proved that his lead in this race is entirely warranted.
   
   
3. Zest’s third loss in a row was a sad day for Protoss players everywhere. His reputation has reached such incredible heights that the weight of the expectation on his shoulders feel almost inhumane. Normally, a player going 0-3 over the first three weeks would be considered just part of the brutal competition, but with Zest, it’s automatically a sign in his fans' eyes that he’s slumping yet again. Zest is a divisive figure in that he’s not allowed to perform below the most stellar level, ever. Of course, despite his slow start, there’s still six more weeks to go; but for now, he's firmly rooted to the bottom of the table.
   
   
4. Patience has only really played two matches, and yet he’s third. He lost against Dark 0-2 (predictable) but then went 2-0 against ByuL (less predictable). Because of aLive’s forfeit, the results so far are ever so slightly skewed in Patience’s favour, but since there are still six weeks to go, the standings will even out eventually. For now, Patience will enjoy an extra edge over the competition, but if he wants to make it to the Post Season, it will still require a great deal of skill and prowess, not luck.
   
   
5. Maybe it's the very much telegraphed schedule of one match a week, maybe it's the welcome return to the glorious Nexon Arena, maybe we're just trying to mend our broken hearts; but there's more than a tinge of the Proleague feel to the SSL so far. We've seen a few tailored builds and awkward scenarios already, and it's only going to get more intense when we move into the second half of the campaign.

INnoVation vs Solar

Going into Week 4, INnoVation stands on the very top of the score board, and by a comfortable margin. He hasn’t dropped a single map in the last three weeks, taking down Zest, Dark and Maru, all Titans of their respective races. Even though he was taken out by aLive in the GSL Super Tournament, it seems like INno’s finally found his niche in the pennant race. He’s clearly vying for the top spot, and it seems unlikely that even the recently redeemed Solar will be able to stop the Terran. The two last met online in January, where INnoVation defeated Solar 2-0. All hope is not lost for the Zerg, however. He’s managed to shape up again, both in SSL and elsewhere—his inventive take on ZvT led to some superb matches this weekend against Maru and aLive. Solar is currently second in the pennant race, having won all three previous matches 2-1. Granted, they were all ZvP, so it remains to be seen what surprises the often volatile Premier division throws at him. What’s worse, INnoVation, as always, has one of the most frightening TvZ win rates of the year, making Solar the clear underdog.

Zest vs Patience

Zest has the unenviable position of holding the last spot in the pennant race. Going 2-6 in maps so far, the Protoss can not be satisfied with the results. Talking about Zest’s slumps seems cliche at this point, but he has a whole lot of work ahead of him to climb out of this. What’s worse, he’s going up against Patience, a player who’s been able to surprise pretty much everyone when it comes to PvP. Patience holds the edge with a 5-1 record in recent offline series against Zest, stretching from last year's SSL S2 Playoffs, to 2 wins at HomeStory Cup, to March's wins at IEM Katowice and in the VSL. Even though Zest has started to show an uptick in form online, the prognosis isn’t stellar—Patience has just had his number recently. He's sitting pretty in third place in the race, and he very would much like to stay on top of the heap.

Maru vs aLive

These two didn’t get to meet over the weekend, making this both a test of skill and a crucial match for the two Terrans. They’re tied in the pennant race, but the hype seems to be on aLive’s side for the time being. His top form in the Super Tournament spells difficult times ahead for Maru, and the Jin Air superstar sorely needs to step up his game if he wants to avoid relegation to the Challenge division. For aLive, maybe 2017 will be his second breakout year. His 1-2 standing isn’t promising just yet, but as they say, revolutions are built on hope.

sOs vs ByuL

sOs stands almost perfectly in the middle of the pack, just barely below Stats. His current sixth place is a precarious one, because it will mean having to go through an extra set of matches to make it to the next SSL Premier—finishing even one spot higher means that the player will qualify for the second season automatically. Of course, making it to fourth is possibly even more important—bringing with it a spot in the Post Season, with a chance to claim the SSL title. Speaking of fourth place, sOs first has to go through ByuL, whose 2017 just seems to be improving and improving. The two met in the Super Tournament qualifiers, and ByuL was the winner, taking down sOs 2-0. The two also met in the SSL qualifiers, where it was sOs who walked away as the winner. And, third time’s the charm, the two met in the IEM qualifiers, where ByuL had the upper hand. In short, this might just be too close to call.

Stats vs Dark

Even a few weeks ago this would’ve been considered one of the highlights of the entire tournament. Stats still enjoys his position as the best Protoss player in the world, but Dark’s fortunes in 2017 have been lacking. The fates are fickle, and while the Zerg player reigned unchallenged as the best of his race last year, his recent lack of results has had many fans scratching their heads. What on Earth has happened? Sure, there are certain circumstances that should be mentioned—he played pretty well in his loss to Stats at IEM Katowice, he ran into a resurgent aLive this weekend at the Super Tournament, while the whole concept of the ex-SKT teamkill GSL group probably allows us to treat those results with a slight pinch of salt. Of course, the scene often has the memory of a goldfish, and Dark should still be considered among the very top of the Zerg race. Nevertheless, going up against the most recent GSL champion is never an easy task.


Predictions

INnoVation 2 - 1 Solar
Zest 1 - 2 Patience
Maru 1 - 2 aLive
sOs 1 - 2 ByuL
Stats 2 - 0 Dark

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