Telecom Showdown

Well, look what we've got here. This year's been somewhat lighter on telecom derbies than usual—just the three round robin matches so far, as well as a single Round Playoffs match in R2—so it's nice that we can revisit the rivalry one more time before we close out for the year. SKT swept through Afreeca with ease—Classic in particular looking in top form—while with Zest and Stats' difficulties in individual leagues over the past month, KT aren't looking quite as hot. Will that be enough to swing SKT past another playoffs match into the finals? Or will we end the year with one more KT and Jin Air showdown? Time to see who'll draw first blood today.

KT vs SKT - Match 1 Preview

Stats <New Gettysburg> MyuNgSiK
Lifetime record: 3 - 3
Last match: 0 - 2 (08/07/2016)

Last week many fans were surprised to see Zoun taking SKT's second protoss spot over MyuNgSiK, asking themselves if perhaps his in-house records were so bad as to deny him a spot in the playoff roster. Now we all know better: We’ve seen the MyuNgSiK-show at GSL. The protoss delivered his typical mixture of absolutely confusing, frustrating and entertaining matches and fared extremely well in his group, advancing to the Round of 8 in first place, outplaying Maru and Dear along the way.

With this success he managed to showcase a very important thing for the first time in his career: consistency. He started well into the season with two clean PvP victories against HerO and Stats and was able to prove that again by beating Dear. The way MyuNgSiK plays doesn’t often make any sense to those watching—or to those playing against him—but in the end things come together and work out somehow.

So even though on paper the difference between the two names is huge, Stats has quite a tough job before him. His opponent excels in the preparation format and has shown very unpredictable, but effective PvP. The fact that KT played Stats first even though this is not an All Kill match might come around to bite them here as SKT have probably seen this pick coming. It’s funny to say, but MyuNgSiK might actually be favoured here.


Leenock <Overgrowth> Dream
Lifetime record: 7 - 5
Last match: 0 - 1 (20/01/2015)

Leenock and Dream meet for the first time in Legacy of the Void in what might be another snipe from SKT. Leenock’s last two SPL matches also came on Overgrowth, so this pairing might very well be the result of an educated guess from the SKT staff. It would certainly fit, as Dream is known for his whirlwind-like speed and as such is perfect as a counter to the mighty Leenocktopus.

Of course TvZ in Korea looks to be heavily terran-favoured at the moment, so that’s a nice bonus for the SKT-side here: They already have two match-ups that are quite convenient for them, perhaps enabling them to an excellent start into this series. Dream certainly was known as an absolute zerg-killer last year (E/N: despite his mediocre statistics...), but despite the balance being in his favour he hasn't been able to achieve the same results recently. He only played two series in the last two months, both of which he lost to his opponent Rogue.

And even though Rogue isn’t the most standard of zerg players on the planet this leaves much hope for KT. Leenock was also a great ZvTer once, even though these times are even farther away than Dream’s zenith. The zerg is still fast and smart, so whenever you leave open a small window he can attack you through, you bet he’ll use the opportunity to hurt you. His attempted comeback against Cure in the R3 Playoff Finals was doomed from the start, but excellent muta and burrowed baneling play was a tantalising reminder of his power. This should be a good fight, but I have to give the edge to SKT here—Dream looked excellent last week.


TY <Dusk Towers> Classic
Lifetime record: 4 - 3
Last match: 2 - 1 (13/08/2015)

We almost got to see a preview of this match in Code S, but the StarCraft gods saw it fit to keep this clash of titans a surprise. We can say one thing for sure though: TY's probably the happier of the two right now, as he was the one to advance out of their shared GSL group in first place, while Classic was eliminated by GuMiho in two PvT series. Lots of material to look at for TY, including some rather weird and cheesy builds from Classic.

The protoss really used a wide range of strategies over the course of the feud with GuMiho—all in all six games—so it might be hard to come up with something surprising for TY. On the other hand, that may not be the plan though. Classic is as good as it gets in long macro grinds and Dusk Towers can absolutely deliver these very long games… but it also provides the perfect environment for adept-warp prism-shenanigans. The SKT protoss has won both of his games against GuMiho on this map, so even though the overall results should give TY some confidence, Classic is not a pushover by any means.

With so much information revealed so shortly before their match one wonders if TY might plan something sketchy himself. GuMiho showed some early aggression with great effectiveness, TY would be able to emulate that for sure. The best bet is probably staying safe however, as protoss players have more than just a handful of ways to cheat the opponent of a victory. TY is such a macro monster, such a patient and intelligent player, he really doesn’t need to risk too much, especially in a situation where his team might be behind in score. TY is favoured, let’s hope for an action-packed clash.


Trust <King Sejong Station> Impact
Lifetime record: 0 - 0
Last match: N/A

There is always one odd match whenever Proleague extends to the Bo7 format, and this one meets our quota for the day: We have Trust and Impact, who have never met before and haven’t played a lot of games this season in general. And yet they are fielded. KT could’ve sent jjakji, a former GSL champion, while SKT could’ve sent soO, a former not-quite GSL champion. You get the idea. So what was the plan here? Was Trust supposed to meet INnoVation on KSS and cheese him out? That seems not too unlikely, as INnoVation's played a lot of matches on here and has yet to be properly tested in TvP following his difficulties in the early part of the year.

If so, this snipe didn’t work out and Trust has to think about a different match-up now. Still, sending Impact instead of soO is a ballsy move by the SKT staff, no matter soO’s form. Despite looking pretty promising at various times this year between Proleague and GSL, there's still no getting around his 0-3 record in SPL 2016, including two losses to Stats (forgiveable) and Hurricane (less so).

Obviously there isn’t much recent material from both of them out there, making this a hard map to judge. Trust’s last PvZ consisted of getting destroyed by Dark, while Impact actually eliminated Super in Code S, which is not that bad of a result. Really, this one is as 50-50 as it gets outside of mirror match-ups.


Zest <Frost> Dark
Lifetime record: 11 - 7
Last match: 1 - 2 (14/07/2016)

This could become a high-class battle between two giants, but it could also evolve into a hilariously silly festival of misplays. From his untouchable peak in season 1, Zest has become worryingly questionable. From losing his PvT winstreak in spectacular style in GSL, to being knocked out of the SSL by Patience, to his ongoing issues against zerg, there are suddenly questions sprouting everywhere around the KT ace. Meanwhile, Dark’s otherwise excellent ZvP has also taken hits recently, losing to sOs and herO in GSL, so there is room for both improvement and further failures on both sides—both of which could prove to be great entertainment.

While Dark fell victim to the great Code S zerg genocide of 2016 and was eliminated by a tricky sOs, Zest was defeated in everything he attended since the end of July: SPL, GSL and SSL ended in catastrophes for him. That his last PvZ series was a loss against Dark in the middle of July doesn’t help his case either. Even though the zerg has had it kind of rough against protoss in the last weeks, Zest's issues are potentially much more serious, and he'll be desperately looking for a win here to arrest the slide. It’s going to be extremely hard though. Dark played great last week and tanked some confidence, so in my eyes he should be slightly favoured going into this potentially crazy match.


Losira <Frozen Temple> INnoVation
Lifetime record: 1 - 1
Last match: 0 - 1 (24/08/2015)

INnoVation has an excellent track record in recent TvZ games, not dropping the ball even once. The terran seems to be in great form from what we can tell. His Proleague record is decent enough (13-6), especially given the horror show he went through against protoss earlier in the year, while he's recently stuffed his bank account with some easy money from SHOUTcraft Kings recently: There is nothing going wrong for him at the moment, which means INnoVation will be in his comfort zone.

And as his opponent you really don’t want him in there. Losira will have to try something aggressive or otherwise out of the ordinary here if he doesn’t want to get squashed by the train that is INnoVation's macro. If he can get it going, there is almost no way of stopping it, especially as how ZvT has been going in Korea lately.

It seems that KT simply lack the strength in depth to really fight SKT on an even field here. The All Kill match will be a whole different story, but this game really epitomizes SK Telecom T1s sheer depth and mass of superstars. If the match gets this far, this is probably where SKT finish it.


Predictions

Stats < MyuNgSiK
Leenock < Dream
TY > Classic
Trust < Impact
Zest < Dark

KT 1 - 4 SKT
SKT to lead 1 - 0 in this Best of 3 ahead of Monday's All-Kill match.

One Above All

Back then, it all looked so simple. Sneak a couple of wins with left field picks, get TY and Stats to chip in from time to time, before rolling the rest of the field with Zest and Flash. A simple formula that was effective enough to send them right up to the top in the 2014 final.

Who would have guessed that that match would be the crowning glory for that iteration of the squad? The KT Rolster of 2015 was a much weaker outfit. Flash’s swift decline in Proleague aptly captured the fortunes of the team as a whole in microcosm—after putting up a 48-22 record in 2012/13 and 24-18 in 2014, 14-18 in 2015 was a major disappointment. It took a team that was finely balanced around the dual ace threat and transformed it to one hopelessly wedded to the fortunes of Zest. And while Zest saved his best for the teamleague arena in 2015, finishing top of the winners’ rankings at 28-15, there’s no doubt that there were crucial games where the pressure of carrying the team told (his double loss to Creator, for example), or when the predictability of his selection as ace player made things easy for the opposition. The contrast between that overall record and his ace record of 2-5 is clear.

On an individual level, there’s no doubt that KT have profited the most of the Big Four following the introduction of Legacy. CJ have dropped off the map, deprived of two of their greatest threats after ByuL’s form nosedive and Bbyong’s absence. SKT have declined to a man, with the sole exception of Dark. Jin Air’s trio have all failed individually—sOs is the only one of the three still fighting, and the only one to have even reached the top 8 of a starleague. On paper, there’s been no greater time to be a KT fan.

So, why the worry? Why are they here, still having to fight for the right to play in the final? While they’ve been much more competitive this year than last, there’s still an edge of ‘not quite’ surrounding KT. Jin Air have been dominant in their head to head matchups, winning 5 of their six meetings this year (all 3 all-kill matches, plus their round robin matches in the two most recent rounds). SKT have beaten them twice, even if KT won the most recent match in Round 3. They have three players who dominated Season 1 between them—Zest winning the GSL, Stats winning the Cross-Finals, and TY picking up silver along the way—but there’s a growing suspicion that while TY’s still looking strong, both of their protosses are trending downwards.

Stats’ eliminations from both starleagues have been ugly—bundled out of GSL by Cure and MyuNgSiK, and eliminated from the SSL in a messy Bo5 against Classic. For his part, Zest’s hardly been much better—eliminated by Ryung and esports pensioner TaeJa in the GSL, and by Patience in the SSL. And we haven’t even got round to the coaching staff yet. Some of their decisions this year have been baffling, from the historical issue of their 4th spot, to their boneheaded insistence of sending Zest into the ace match no matter the circumstances. It’s a decision that’s cost them dearly time and again, most notably this year against Jin Air, when they sent Zest in despite the fact that he clearly had issues with the style that Rogue brought in their opening match.

That’s the real issue with KT. As strong as their supporting cast is, their reliance on the big man is strange given the depth in their roster; no other team save CJ does it to nearly the same degree (and even that was caused by ByuL’s complete collapse in form during the first half of the year). Perhaps it’s the inevitable legacy left by Flash; the feeling that there must always be a single player they turn to when they need to be bailed out of the darkest circumstances. Will he stand up to the pressure? Zest might have fallen in both starleagues, but here’s a swift opportunity for him to appease the fans and assuage any concerns they have. There’s a motto to uphold, after all.