Glory From The Shadow

In team games, it is the charge of every player to work towards the success of the whole team. In a game such as Starcraft, however, it is the cruel fate of most of those players, that team success cannot fully substitute individual success. Hoisting a trophy on your own almost without exception makes you more memorable than a face among many, lifting the Proleague trophy at the long end of a grueling group effort. More often than not, there is room for no more than one or two superstars on a team. Not because there are never more than one or two players of that quality on the team, but because the spotlight cannot fall on everyone. On KT Rolster's line-up, Zest and Flash once wrestled for attention and ace status despite their careers taking utterly different routes. The SK Telecom of 2014 was so filled to the brim with stars that many of them left - not only the team, but the country or the scene. Struggling for the success of your team without guarantee of the payoff you are due, as one of the best players in the world, is a tough thing to do.

Both Stats and Cure, tonight's fated starters, know well the difficulties of carving your niche in the shadow of someone more successful, more talented, more beloved. For Stats, climbing out of the shadow of Zest has become an almost Sisyphean ordeal. Each time -- and it has happened more than once -- it appears as though Stats may at long last become the player apart, Zest reasserts the dominance that has made him a titan of Starcraft. For Cure, in spite of gritty 24-hour qualifier marathons and overseas ventures, a career next to Maru's is a career of endless comparison. It doesn't help that the two are similar, or that Maru will match whatever achievement Cure can muster with a zeal fitting of a younger brother eager to stomp on his elder.

It isn't that Stats or Cure are invisible players - they're not. It isn't that they aren't some of the very best the scene has to offer - they are. But when they are fielded first, it is with the inevitable air of impassivity, of a prodding carefulness. "What can they do?" the KT coach asks, fielding Stats. "How will they react to a loss on Map 1?" the Jin Air coach thinks, fielding Cure. They are bringing machine guns to a knife fight, with the knowledge that both have Hellfire missiles stashed in the back of the room.

But in a way, it is fitting. While the glory earned in team leagues can very rarely by matched by team league glory, Proleague is nevertheless the arena of surprises, of streaks initiated - another brick in the wall for the players that strive to something greater.

Finals - KT Rolster vs Jin Air Green Wings

Stats <Dusk Towers> Cure
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<King Sejong Station>
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“If it ain't broke, don't fix it” was probably the thought running through the KT coach's mind when deciding the starter for his team: Stats has played first in every single one of KT’s all kill matches this season and has not lost an opening match yet. Whenever he played, KT got a great start. On average he took 2,5 wins per appearance, achieved one all kill and proved to be a rock-solid choice every time. However, even his successful opening games haven’t been enough of a boost for KT to win over Jin Air in the all-kill format so far. This could become the best opening streak Stats ever had, but Jin Air have history on their side.

In stark contrast to KT’s solid and successful starter, Jin Air have not only changed up their early choices quite a bit over the course of the season, they also haven’t won a single opening match yet. The three used starters—sOs, Trap, Cure—have been remarkably unsuccessful so far, compared to Jin Air’s overall success rate in all kill series. So although Stats got eliminated from Code S by Cure himself only a few weeks ago—and this whole thing smells like a snipe because of that—, the scenario doesn’t bode well for the Green Wings. Even though they are a strong team when it comes to preparation, the opening matches seem to pose an unsolvable riddle to them. With all that in mind the slight favourite should be Stats: Without at least a win from him, the whole series becomes a bit problematic, and he knows that. The format seems to fit him.

The Zergs

Let’s start off by talking about the Zerg line-ups first this time, because the role of this race in both teams couldn’t be any more different. While Losira and Leenock did both get fielded in all kill matches, neither of them was key to any strategy. Their usage so far makes them look like no more than cannon fodder to tire the opponent out or get rid of a bad map. And maybe, if the adversary blunders and makes mistakes, they could even take a win. But winning so far didn’t seem to be their prime purpose. KT at least have some semblance of faith in Leenock as shown by their peculiar choice to play him in the ace match against Afreeca - a match that Leenock promptly lost to Curious' all-in.

In Jin Air’s roster things are quite a bit different of course: Rogue is probably equally important and valuable to the team as Maru, at least whenever they're playing against KT Rolster. Rogue's talent for crafting strategies to counter specific players is multiplied by his already strong ZvP, which is why he plays such a key role here. Rogue's almost sole purpose is to beat Zest and, if possible, keep a Maru vs Zest match from happening. It is quite unlikely we’ll see his colleague HyuN come out though, as unfortunately there’s little he can bring to the table to give his team a tactical advantage - unless he's created something seriously special in practice that we haven't seen.

The numbers from all of the 2016 Season do confirm the weakness in KT’s Zerg line-up: They only won 29% of their games, while their colleagues from Jin Air were victorious in 57% of their games—of course most of that load is shouldered by Rogue. If it weren’t for him, the role of the Zerg race as a whole in this match would be quite insignificant. As is, however, the one Zerg we're guaranteed to see might just be the player this entire series revolves around.

The Protoss

With Stats already committed, Zest and Trust remain as the reserve. KT have always relied on Zest as the last player this season and will probably fall back to that plan again if need be. Ever since his double loss to Rogue, Zest seems to at least have polished his PvZ somewhat, as shown by a much better series against Dark. However, Rogue still poses the greatest challenge for the reigning GSL champion. Zest's PvT has continued to be ridiculous and his PvP is always brilliant. If KT have their way Rogue should be taken care of before Zest ever enters the booth. The best Protoss in the world is then absolutely capable of dealing with the rest of Jin Air by himself. This is also why Stats' role as the opening player is that important. KT would love to force Rogue out early in order to snipe him out of the match and let Zest clean up. As for Trust, he played exactly one single game all season long. He won it, but that probably won’t earn him a spot in the playoff line-up.

The boys in green field quite an impressive Protoss line-up themselves, albeit not as monstrous as KT's. sOs is always a danger. His killing instinct and ability to perform when it matters the most make him an opponent who should always be respected. However, he has been quite tame in playoff matches so far, his biggest contribution being a 3-kill streak against KT in Round 2—by no means a small feat, but almost disappointing by his own standards. Trap has played a solid season overall, but lacks results in recent times, with an especially glaring weakness against Terran. Since KT can’t bring much Zerg power to the field anyways and will absolutely play Rogue and Maru, Trap’s usefulness is questionable. His craftiness might come in handy for a surprise PvP though, but sOs is probably still the better pick for it. The chance of seeing Creator is even lower than HyuN's.

As far as Protoss is concerned, KT have the clear advantage. All season long their line-up has won 74% of its matches, Jin Air’s only 51%. But even more alarming for Green Wings fans is their teams’ score against Protoss: only 45% of XvPs have been decided in their own favor. Maru, sOs and Rogue are excellent players versus Protoss, but on a good day for Stats or Zest it only takes one of them to crash their plane into the Chinese sea.

The Terrans

Looking at the Terrans, Jin Air have the advantage. For all the hype around TY, Jin Air's ace, Maru, has outdone him since. TY's Proleague record in general is quite mixed. His GSL and SSL appearances are reassuring, but he may just be falling behind the very top players slightly. He's still the second best Terran in the world, but when Jin Air have the actual best on their team, the advantage has to be with them. jjakji is 0-2 and aside from the one good game he delivers per month—with any luck—there doesn’t seem to be any light at the end of this particular tunnel. Sad to say so, but Jjakji probably won’t play.

Maru. With a 20-4 score all season long, he's on course for yet another Proleague award. He’s undefeated against Terran and ranging from rock-solid to extraordinary against the other two races. But even though some people might want you to believe it, he’s not invincible. He has lost to both Protoss and Terran recently (mostly online though), showing that there’s still a way to overcome him. He even dropped out of the SSL qualifiers after map losses to Super, Losira, Reality, herO and a very relevant 0-2 defeat against Zest.
And then there’s still Cure, of course. It’s not guaranteed at all that Stats will beat him, as it’s quite an even match. Should Cure defeat his first opponent, KT will be in a bit of trouble. They’ll lose their first opening match of the season—while Jin Air win their first—and more importantly lose one of their key players. Cure is capable of delivering an early critical blow to the enemy. But he may not be destined for more, as KT have a plethora of Terran killers at their disposal.

Maru and Cure have vastly outdone KT's Terrans all season long: They boast a combined 76% winrate, while TY and Jjakji only got up to a weak 44%. Not very encouraging for KT, but their core strength does come with their Protoss.

Predictions

Taking all the information we have, we can conclude the following: KT’s Protoss players must score big time for them to take this match. Maru, sOs and Rogue should be set as Jin Air’s crew for the job. The order of play will probably be determined by how Jin Air want to deal with Zest, and thus by the opening match. Should Stats win, expect sOs or a sniper. Should Cure win, expect TY from KT. Both teams will be trying to keep their core players away from the match for as long as possible. KT will try to avoid sending Zest out before Rogue is dealt with, just as Jin Air will be very hesitant to play Maru as long as Zest is still available for KT. There is a great strategical dynamic in play that will be really fun to follow. Keep in mind as well that both teams are stacked with streak potential. Zest, Stats, sOs, Maru and TY have all performed high stake multi- or all-kills. This match could just as easily be decided by one individual flash of brilliance.

Both playoff duels between these teams have been so very close and we really think the same will apply here. We're predicting a 4-3 result once again—but we can't decide on a winner. They're both too good. [E/N: KT 4-1 Jin Air]