Holding out for a herO

We’re nearing the conclusion of Proleague Round 2, and with it two thirds of this year’s season will be done. It’s definitely been an exciting race for the playoffs in the past couple weeks, and it all came down to the very last map of the round. Zest’s win over Dear at the last minute dumped Samsung out of the playoff spots, and allowed CJ to sneak in for the first time in 2016. They’re up against a somewhat unexpected opponent first up—SK Telecom T1 have lost their top seed status for the first time in over a year. While they looked absolutely untouchable when fielding their optimal line-up last round, they’ve looked rather mortal in Round 2. Not only have they suffered two losses to Jin Air and Samsung, they’ve also been forced into ace matches by CJ, MVP, and Afreeca. They did win these deciders—they are SKT after all—, but it must have left a bitter taste in their collective mouth to only be ranked third place and thus start at the bottom of the playoff bracket.

While we’ve seen SKT’s unmatchable roster depth play out in the all kill-format last round, the small line-up of CJ Entus—only five players deep at the moment—might have some difficulty to deal with the situation at hand. But let us take a look at what happened in the last regular week of Proleague, before we catch playoff-fever.

Five Conclusions

1. Between the four different pairs of potential results last week, only one of them would have seen CJ Entus advance. But it seems Lady Luck has a soft spot for the team! With KT and Afreeca scraping wins over CJ’s rivals Samsung and MVP, the condition of a CJ advancement has been fulfilled. This is already the second time the team was this lucky in SPL recent history; in Round 3 of 2015 a very similar situation occurred, with CJ taking the playoff spot and Samsung again losing out. With fortune on their side, the five members should go into the duel against SKT with boosted morale.

2. Samsung are so very close to the top teams, but their lack of consistency makes them struggle. A team able to take out SKT with a straight 3-0 just should not lose 1-3 to MVP for example. Besides inconsistency their ace game also isn’t just there yet: Dear (9-6 this season, 1-2 in ace matches) can’t carry the team on his back alone, as shown against KT last week. His colleagues did make considerable progress in this regard however. Reality is now 6-4, BrAvO 4-3 and the enigma of Proleague—Solar—is at 4-4. It seems like Samsung have finally found a lineup that works for them, and if they are able to find some more stability and another ace option they should be able to claim a playoff spot at last.

3. KT Rolster had a close match against Samsung, but in the end the triumvirate of Stats, TY and Zest was victorious again, putting to an end all the thoughts around falling performances after the individual tournaments. Stats’ win over Reality was especially valuable, as it boosted his confidence in the PvT-match-up, which so far has been the one dirty stain on his otherwise shiny SPL record. TY avenged his GSL Ro16 loss against Dear, while Zest started out badly, bungling his build in a loss to Solar, but he was able to keep his composure and decide the ace match for his team—confirming his negative PvZ record (2-3), but boosting his fearsome PvP stats (6-2). It’s easy to criticise him for another PvZ loss, but what’s particularly notable was the mental fortitude required to instantly step up in a dominant ace match performance. With their best three players in form, KT should be ready for any opponent in the playoffs.

4. MVP are not very good at ace matches. They’ve had four of them so far this season and lost each and every one of them (3 for GuMiho, 1 for DeParture). That said, Afreeca don’t look much more successful at this discipline. This victory was their first ace win, and before that they had the same 0-3 record as MVP. Both teams are lacking solid options in this regard, which is really hurting them. Both teams could’ve taken victories over SKT for example, if they had a star player to send into ace matches.

5. Looking at the statistics for Round 2 Jin Air have two players with spotless records in the top 10: Maru is 6-0 and Trap is 4-0, with the protoss definitely flying under the radar. However the player with the most wins this round wasn’t Maru, as one might expect—herO is 7-3, carrying CJ Entus into the playoffs on his back. For a bit of context, the next best CJ player is RagnaroK with a score of 2-2. CJ have won three matches in Round 2; all three required herO to win both his original match and the ace. The numbers also illustrate Samsung’s rise to strength, putting the trio of Dear, BrAvO and Reality on the ranks 9 to 11. Going into the playoffs one additional stats may be very interesting: SKT’s terrans are 1-2 (Dream) and 1-3 (INnoVation) this round, while their zergs have carried hard and Classic also made a positive impact after his comeback.

SKT vs CJ

Map Order & Statistics

Classic <Dusk Towers> ByuL
ZvP: 2-1
SKT: 6-3 | CJ: 3-4

<Lerilak Crest>
TvZ: 2-6 | ZvP: 6-5 | PvT: 3-1
TvT: 5 | ZvZ: 2 | PvP: 5
SKT: 7-4 | CJ: 2-8

<Orbital Shipyard>
TvZ: 0-2 | ZvP: 0-2 | PvT: 5-7
TvT: 4 | ZvZ: 0 | PvP: 10
SKT: 2-7 | CJ: 4-5

<Frost>
TvZ: 4-1 | ZvP: 1-1 | PvT: 1-1
TvT: 2 | ZvZ: 1 | PvP: 0
SKT: 0-4 | CJ: 3-2

<King Sejong Station>
TvZ: 2-2 | ZvP: 0-3 | PvT: 2-1
TvT: 1 | ZvZ: 0 | PvP: 3
SKT: 3-2 | CJ: 4-1

<Overgrowth>
TvZ: 1-2 | ZvP: 1-1 | PvT: 1-1
TvT: 3 | ZvZ: 4 | PvP: 1
SKT: 3-1 | CJ: 1-1

<Dusk Towers>
TvZ: 6-0 | ZvP: 2-1 | PvT: 8-6
TvT: 3 | ZvZ: 2 | PvP: 4
SKT: 6-3 | CJ: 3-4


The Starters

Both players in this opening matchup are clouded in uncertainty. On the one side stands Classic, who came back this round after a long hiatus and played some solid matches, on the other side is ByuL—normally the second of CJ Entus’ pillars of success, but very much carried along by herO this year so far.

Classic hasn’t played a PvZ this round, making us pretty much blind regarding his form in this match-up. Luckily the SSL qualifiers featured a match between him and Curious, which actually resulted in Classic being defeated 0-2. One set was broadcast (KR Cast), featuring relatively standard ling / bane / broodlord vs chargelot archon compositions. Poor micro from Classic saw his zealots erased by banelings, and the rest of his army quickly followed. While it’s a different weakness to his pre-hiatus lurker issues, it’s still not the greatest show of strength for tonight. His opponent from CJ was beaten by Patience a few weeks ago, but won over TAiLS and Blaze in the GSL qualifiers (unbroadcast). Not the greatest of names, but very tricky adversaries, showing that ByuL either was able to hold off their aggression, or was very effective at attacking himself.

He'll most likely need both qualities against Classic, and CJ really do need a strong start here—losing ByuL without him taking a match would be a massive blow to their chances indeed. He’s been their saving grace so many times before in the playoffs, and CJ probably can’t leave herO everything to do. ByuL still has to do his part though, and taking out Classic would be a good beginning.


CJ’s Plan

Dividing these teams’ rosters into different components and comparing them wouldn’t make much sense, as CJ have only five players at their disposal, while SKT’s line-up is as deep as the ocean. It is pretty clear that herO will be the one person CJ’s coach trusts to win the match, but he does have some resources at hand to support him with this task. What is needed for CJ to topple these giants they face and produce a huge upset?

1. Getting the right timing: A hero only ever enters at the perfect timing to turn the battle around, and with herO it shouldn’t be any different. CJ have a nice window in the middle of the map order, where they have the statistical edge and an excellent entry point for herO on King Sejong Station—his old “home” map, on which he also had success this round. But of course CJ have to survive to this point, taking one map from SKT at the minimum.

2. Reducing the Swarm: Statistically herO’s weakest match-up is ZvP, with him being 2-2 so far this season. This means CJ have to bait out Dark and soO early on if possible to remove them from the equation. A difficult task of course, especially as both zergs are strong in all the match-ups and thus hard to snipe. ZvZ is volatile and can become quite chaotic though, which makes RagnaroK and ByuL obvious candidates to challenge their fellow zerg players. Again, this depends on ByuL taking the first map.

3. Keeping the Terrans in check: As we’ve seen above SKT’s terrans weren’t all too successful last round, as well as in the individual league qualifiers. For CJ this means that Dream and INnoVation aren’t as huge a threat as they could be. herO should be favoured against both them, and even Bunny might be very well able to take one of them out.

4. Listen to Hush, but keep him banked: Hush, as we’ve heard many times, is quite a brilliant strategist and valuable asset for his team. But in active play he didn’t do his teammates any good so far, going 0-5 this season. This may limit CJ to basically four players, but the Hush-aura could potentially buff all of them up to a level where they can challenge SKT.

5. Don’t Get Cheesed: SKT may send out MyuNgSiK or Sorry to throw CJ off—and we’ve all seen what kind of crazy stuff these two are able to pull off. CJ can’t lose a single player to shenanigans.

If this plan goes well, then CJ do have a chance to pull this upset off. herO is the key, he will probably have to do most of the work, but his colleagues need to play their roles and support him. That said, if they’re able to turn around their current mediocre form, most of SKT’s players are potentially capable of all killing CJ’s line-up... such is life in Proleague.


Predictions

ByuL has been in awful form for most of 2016, and while he's won 4/7 offline ZvPs in the past 3 months, they've come against decidedly low-calibre opposition (2-1 TAiLS, 0-1 Patience, 0-1 Harstem, 1-0 puCK, 1-0 Blaze). Meanwhile, Classic's ZvP woes have been well documented for a while now. I'll probably go for the CJ man here, although frankly this is pretty much a gamble either way.

After that, it all becomes a bit unpredictable. ByuL is struggling in ZvT right now, but the SKT pair of INnoVation and Dream are hardly on fire right now either. Chances are, SKT just pray to their zergs to carry, and I think they''ll just about stumble over the line. Whatever happens, it seems that herO and Dark will be the two standout players, and whoever has the bigger impact on the night will probably win the match for their team.

SKT 4 - 3 CJ