Round 1 Playoffs - Match 1

We’re nearly a quarter of the way through the Proleague season—it’s time for our first set of Round Playoffs. It’s been enthralling so far, and now it’s time for the all kill matches to start. Our first match features high flying KT, who screwed up in Week 6 and missed out on the 2nd seed spot that they seemed locked in for. They’re up against the Afreeca Freecs, who successfully pulled off the 3-0 sweep over MVP to sneak past Samsung at the post by a solitary map point. The winner will go on to face Jin Air in Match 2 on Tuesday, while SKT wait in the Round Playoff Finals on Saturday. As usual, time for a quick recap of the week gone by, followed by a preview of the match tonight.

Five Conclusions

1. The big story of Week 6 was undoubtedly Samsung’s unfortunate 5th place finish. On some level, you’ve got to say that they simply did not get the results they needed to place higher, losing to Jin Air, KT, and SKT, while dropping two crucial map points to MVP. However, it’s still a slight worry that Jin Air’s 3-0 win over SKT was heavily tainted by the weakened team sent out by last season’s champions. While it’s incredibly unlikely that a full strength SKT would have completed the necessary 3-0 sweep that would have sent Samsung through (INnoVation would surely be in the four selected anyway, and he lost to Maru), it’s still troubling that the thin line between success and failure in a round can be dictated by the order of games played. Imagine, for instance, if Afreeca had got their necessary 3-0 over SKT, not Jin Air; I'm sure there would have been more discussion about it in that case. If there’s a similarly tight scenario when it comes time for the Season Playoffs to be decided, things could get awkward.
   
   
2. Onto that Jin Air win then; it was the first defeat for SKT all year. That said, an 0-3 perhaps doesn’t fully indicate how well they played. Zoun and Impact were certainly very competitive for large parts of their games against sOs and Rogue, and the experience they accrue here can only aid them later in the season. For Jin Air, it seemed a true return to form. sOs’ tricks came to the fore again, buying time for his air transition, while Maru reaffirmed his status as the premier TvTer in Starcraft 2, and Rogue looks to be slowly rebuilding his confidence after his disastrous early season. Half a year on from the 2015 Proleague Finals, Jin Air and SKT lead the Korean pack once again. The more things change, the more things stay the same.
   
   
3. So, CJ finally decided to pick up another win then. It’s not a coincidence that the only two matches they’ve won all season featured herO and ByuL combining for wins, as anyone regularly following these conclusions will be aware by now, and it’s still evident that they’re far too reliant on their top 2; arguably more so than any other team in Proleague. Remove the top two players from all seven teams, and CJ are undoubtedly in the bottom two teams in the league, especially if Bbyong’s current condition continues for much longer. Either reinforcements must arrive, or their ace pair must rack up a ridiculous record in the coming rounds for CJ to return to the season playoffs for a third consecutive season.
   
   
4. There’s only one team ranked below CJ currently, and that is MVP. It’s been a pretty horrible round for them. Key players like GuMiho (2-2) and DeParture (3-3) have been impressive in parts, but a bit too inconsistent to carry the rest of the team, while the rest of their roster has been practically non-existant. In the six matches played this round, Seed has been the only player other than GuMiho and DeParture to win even a single map (one, against Journey). Much like CJ, that’s simply an unfeasible platform for success. Quite a few players have played well (Forte last week, for the most recent example), but that means nothing without actually picking up the win. Much improvement is required.
   
   
5. However, that’s not to denigrate Afreeca’s performance last week. A 3-0 is what they needed, and a 3-0 is what they got. Super finally showed why he’s been picked week in, week out, winning his first game since Week 2 against Rogue to finish on a 2-4 record for the round, while Curious redeemed himself after his ZvZ loss to Solar last week. Bomber looked somewhat shaky in the midgame against Forte after taking a substantial lead in the early game, but was ahead enough to close it out successfully with a huge army advantage.

KT vs Afreeca

The Starters

Stats has started 2016 in the same formidable form as he started 2015. His eternal GSL curse struck again (knocked out by DeParture in Code A), but in Proleague and the SSL, he’s proved to be a consistent heavy hitter. Strong in PvP and PvT recently, the only missing link is a weak PvZ record (1-3 DeParture, 1-0 Rogue, 0-3 Dark), although with no games played in the matchup for nearly a month, it’s unknown what shape he’s currently in in that regard.

That’s not going to matter for game 1 at least though, as he’s up against aLive first. The Afreeca terran has undoubtedly been one of the main catalysts behind his team’s rise in the early weeks of Proleague, but he hasn’t actually won a game since Week 2. Since then, he lost twice against KT and hasn’t played since. Now that can be explained by his GSL / SSL schedule, but it’s also true that his early season form has dipped considerably. Since his 2-0 win over ByuL in the SSL over a month ago, he has failed to win a single match offline, losing to Zest, TY, ByuN, Dark and Losira at a 1-9 map record. Granted, that’s a pretty tough set of opponents, but it’s the calibre of opposition that awaits him here. His TvP is certainly his weakest matchup offline in Legacy so far (albeit based on a small sample size over a few months), and it’s difficult to see him winning here.


The Core Members

For KT, it’s pretty much guaranteed that Zest and TY will see action if required. Along with Stats, the trio make up the triumverate that have driven KT to the playoffs—remarkably, no other player on KT has picked up even a single win (Losira 0-2, Leenock 0-2, jjakji 0-1, SpeeD 0-1). Zest is the in-form player in the world right now; in 2016, he’s racked up a 21-3 record, losing once to Dear in his first Proleague game of the year (before winning the ace match on the night) and once to DeParture earlier this month. He has dropped a single map in all three matchups so far. Whatever the situation, he’s an ace card that KT can be confident to play. On the other hand, TY is hardly struggling for form either. He’s only dropped five maps this year himself. Aside from last week’s aberration against Bunny, and the pair of maps dropped against SKT’s highly aggressive zergs, it’s difficult to pick a flaw in his game.

Up against that pair of heavy hitters, it’s difficult to see Afreeca’s double act having nearly the same effect. Curious has been his usual solid self, but he’s played too little for us to truly rank him amongst the elite. He’s looked good most of the time, but was outclassed by Cure and Classic in the GSL and Proleague, as well as losing to Solar a couple weeks back. Super has been an ever-present in Afreeca’s lineup, but has a very patchy record indeed (especially in PvP). In general, that sums up the whole matchup between KT and Afreeca; Afreeca are solid and consistently ‘good’, but KT have the spark necessary to truly challenge the very best.


The Long Shots

However, that’s what should happen. What will happen is possibly an entirely different thing indeed. As strong a triple act as Zest / Stats / TY is, it’s not inconceivable that they fail as a group—hell, it even happened last week, with Zest the only member to pick up a win. While the all kill format strengthens their chances of carrying KT to a win if anyone picks up a multi-kill, the playoffs inevitably bring the possibility of planned snipers into consideration.

That will certainly be far more impactful on Afreeca’s chances here than on KT’s. There’s no real need for KT to specifically target players on Afreeca—they’re solid overall, but have no true ace, a fact that their coach Legend admitted to as part of their justification for their unfortunate swap deal for Life. For KT, it’s all about picking a 4th player (if one is even required). Leenock and Losira make sense to plug the zerg hole in their lineup, but SpeeD is probably the in-form member of the rest of their squad. Trust and jjakji likely have no chance of making the final four.

For Afreeca though, things are trickier. Chances are, they need specific protoss and terran snipers for Zest and TY. Bomber and KeeN will probably fight it out for the final spot, given that they’ve swapped spots on the roster for much of the year, and KeeN notably also took out Stats when the two teams last met. Billowy’s still dining out on that miraculous all kill of KT in 2013, but as funny as that was he hasn't really done much since (aside from notably all-inning Stats at the back end of last season). However, it has to be noted that his traditionally sharp gateway aggression is the perfect fit for a snipe build. SGW is the final player listed on the roster, but given that he’s yet to play a televised game in SC2, and has an abysmal 2-16 record in Legacy (his two wins coming in a 2-0 over a fellow random in the SSL qualifiers), we might not even see him at the studio, let alone in the booth.


Predictions

While it’s difficult to predict the order that players will come out in in the all kill format, everything is set up strongly in favour of KT. Stats should beat aLive in the opener, and while he might fall to one of the following three, Zest should clean up the rest (assuming that TY is saved as a potential ace player).

Stats > aLive
Stats > Super
Stats < Curious
Zest > Curious
Zest > KeeN

KT 4 - 1 Afreeca