Playoffs in Sight

After last week’s mere double bill, this week we’re back up to the full complement of four matches. It’s the penultimate week (already!) of Round 1, and the playoffs picture is still nowhere near clear. SKT have already confirmed their spot (although they’ll still need to secure top spot), while KT are in a very strong position. MVP are out, and CJ will need a miracle to advance, especially with their penalty point for herO’s warnings. Then, the middle three are all sitting on a 2-2 match record, with just two map points separating the three teams. To add to the intrigue, all of those teams will play at least one of their rivals in these last two weeks, and Samsung will play both. In summary, all to play for, and every team will look to set themselves up for a climactic last week.

Five Conclusions

1. Once again, SKT won. However, something that may be a slight concern to them is that once again, they dropped a map. Sure, this might be picking at miniscule flaws, but not since their opening day 3-0 over Afreeca have they won flawlessly in Proleague. MyuNgSiK and Dark lost to KT, Classic to MVP, and Dark again to Samsung last week. SKT might be unbeaten, but they’re not invincible.
   
   
2. That said, will it really matter if their players take turns to have off-weeks once in a while? Four of their core from last year have started off well, while new signing MyuNgSiK is the only winless player that they’ve fielded so far. Week 4 was finally Dream’s chance to shine, and he dismantled Dear in an easy win. Dear’s been playing well over the first couple months of competitive Legacy, but Dream showed that coming out first in his Code S group was hardly a fluke. Even if you’re dismissing Classic, who has looked weak recently after bombing out hard in both leagues, they still have a four man core who are starting to gather steam.
   
   
3. The biggest winners from Week 4 (apart from SKT, of course) were KT Rolster. Even though they didn’t play, their biggest rivals for a top 2 spot in Round 1 in Samsung were outclassed by SKT. They now sit alone in 2nd place, ahead of the 3 way 2-2 tie between Afreeca, Samsung and Jin Air, and with two games to go against bottom feeders MVP and CJ, they should be nailed on for a playoffs spot.
   
   
4. As for CJ, there’s little that needs to be reiterated, as their awful round continues. This week, it was herO’s turn to deliver, taking a rare win over sOs. But where herO succeeded, ByuL did not, losing out to Rogue’s greedy triple hatch opening. As is so often the case, the rest of their lineup failed. For those keeping score, CJ’s record is now 5-12 when one of their dual aces loses in the opening four sets. It’s getting a little dull adding one to the loss count every week.
   
   
5. That said, Jin Air did their jobs. Maru still looks capable of pushing them to wins should he get any support, and Rogue and Trap looked better than they’ve been in quite a while. After sOs’ week off following IEM Taipei, Jin Air have now fielded their core three for two matches in a row (three counting their Week 5 match), with cameo performances from Cure and Trap. Both players looked superb in their respective Code S Ro.32, and could well push for starting spots should Rogue and sOs continue to underwhelm. With those five players (and Creator), their early season blues shouldn’t be an indicator for how the rest of their season will play out. It’s just a mere two map points separating them from Afreeca in third, and although they have a tough pair of matches left against Samsung and SKT, they remain well in contention.

Afreeca vs Samsung

Curious <Ruins of Seras> Solar

There comes a time with every player that you simply stop underestimating them. Curious has reached that point, over a career of beating the odds. He’s a player who’s adjusted to three expansions and five years worth of changes to the game, endlessly adapting to the times. I initially doubted his ability to manage the huge switch to Legacy instantly, but he’s effortlessly bridged the gap in expansions. He’s in the top 16 of GSL, and aside from an early season defeat to Classic’s late game PvZ (a style that’s clearly been figured out already), is doing well in Proleague as well. I say this all because we still have no clue about his ZvZ—he’s managed to dodge the mirror matchup for the whole year. He’s up against Solar, a player with a lofty reputation, but one who’s looked slightly suspect recently, especially in Proleague. A 3-2 win over RagnaroK and 0-1 loss to ByuL in ZvZ is hardly decisive, and even though we might not know enough about Curious’ ZvZ specifically, I have enough faith in Curious the player to back him here.


Billowy <Dusk Towers> Reality

The last time we saw Billowy offline, he lost in Code A to Rogue. Aside from his win over RagnaroK the previous day, we’ve got nothing on him at all. He’s got a couple of losses to Bly (!) and Guru (!!) online, but we’ve seen too many players do the same before spanking their opposition offline for us to assign too much weight to those matches. He hasn’t played a relevant terran at all since the adept patch, so knowing what he’ll come out with here is complete guesswork. Reality meanwhile has been quietly impressive since losing to SpeeD in Code A; Proleague wins over herO and Dark in the past two weeks have given him wins over two of the leading lights of their respective races. His TvT might still be questionable, but he should be too good for Billowy here. But as long as bunkers remain salvageable, the ex-MVP protoss still has a shot.


Super <Ulrena> Dear

Super has been a strange player to watch throughout this season. He’s had a handful of wins, exclusively in PvZ—3-1 over RagnaroK in Code A, 2-0 over DeParture in Code S, 1-0 over Rogue in Proleague. But I can’t shake the feeling that his opponents did as much to lose those matches as Super did to win; he wasn’t outstanding in any of them. Further, he’s also had quite a few defeats in Proleague, as well as (more pertinently) two poor defeats to Trap in that same Code S group. He’s been consistently sent out by Afreeca, which means that he’s got to be doing something right, but we all saw just how much that benefitted Solar last year. His disruptor micro was clearly worse than Trap’s last Friday, and unless he bucks his ideas up this should be an easy win for Dear.


Bomber <Orbital Shipyard> Hurricane

After being adepted out of the GSL, Bomber’s been a ghost in Korea. Aside from a handful of online events (none successful), he’s been completely invisible. That begs the question then—why now? Afreeca are doing well in Proleague, so there must be some reason he’s been called out. Then again, while we have seen a bit more of Hurricane, that doesn’t mean we should be impressed. Knocked out of the SSL by Stats and ByuN, beaten in Proleague by DeParture, dumped out of GSL by Soulkey; it really hasn’t been a great start to the season. This, then, is a chance for both players to set the record straight, and to kickstart their year.


Ace: <Lerilak Crest>

aLive was sent out as Afreeca’s ace last time round against KT, but seeing as he’s been rested this week for his Wednesday GSL group, it’s doubtful that we’ll see him here. Personally, I would choose Curious if I were the Afreeca coach, but given the amount of trust they’ve put in Super so far, he’s the player I think we’ll see. Meanwhile, it’s still a shootout between Dear and Solar for Samsung; expect to see whoever wins on the day.

Predictions

Curious > Solar
Billowy < Reality
Super <Dear
Bomber < Hurricane

Afreeca 1 - 3 Samsung

MVP vs KT

DeParture <Lerilak Crest> Zest

Man, DeParture just can’t catch a break. After a promising start to the season, everything is threatening to go off the rails. Losses to TY and Super dumped him out 0-4 in his GSL group, while he’s had losses against Dear and INnoVation in his last two Proleague matches. And now, he has Zest standing in his way. Eek. The KT has only lost one match since February (to Dear in Proleague, before winning the ace match anyway against BrAvO) at a 19-2 map record. It’s a run fuelled by his PvT dominance, although wins over sOs and Dark in Proleague were equally convincing. DeParture will definitely have his day; he’s shown more than enough over the past year for me to have confidence in him bouncing back. It just probably won’t be this day.


GuMiho <Prion Terraces> Leenock

Next up are two struggling players, already out of both leagues. But while GuMiho at least has the crumb of comfort of his Proleague win against Classic, Leenock is winless since his Code A win over Jaedong. 1-2 defeats to herO (understandable) and Seed (really?) left the KT zerg without any opportunities for the foreseeable future. You could argue strongly that SpeeD and Losira should sit above him in KT’s depth chart, while jjakji and Trust are players who could certainly improve over the course of the year. Traded onto KT at the last minute, it’s time for Leenock to start delivering. The problem is that his muta opening last time round was pummelled into oblivion by a mass chunk of INnoVation bio, and unless he’s improved since, it’s likely that GuMIho will achieve much the same effect.


Ryung <Orbital Shipyard> TY

Every time I’ve watched Ryung play over the last couple of years, I think back to the masterful terran of WoL. Once the invisible prince of SlayerS behind team icon MMA, then Axiom’s leader, and now on MVP, Ryung has fallen on tough times. Throughout the end of HotS, and now the start of LotV, he simply hasn’t done enough to be regarded as competitive. Hell, he didn’t even make Code A this season, knocked out by rookie DRGLing. And now, he’s been given TY in the Proleague draw. TvT has always been Ryung’s best matchup by far (he had a 64% offline win rate in WoL, for example), but he’s been reduced to a 46% win rate in Legacy. Up against the best terran of the moment, this likely won’t be pretty.


Blaze <Ruins of Seras> Stats

Blaze’s 2016 is a perfect example of how online prowess doesn’t necessarily translate to offline success. He has an online win rate of 65%, and yet has lost all three offline series to date (ByuL, Maru, TaeJa). Although it should be noted that Maru in particular is a tougher challenge than any of his online conquests, it still shows the gulf between the two formats. However successful a player, the pressure of the booth can still weigh heavy on their mind—just look at ByuN’s ups and downs this year. Stats may have shown some weakness in PvZ and PvT recently, but his PvP looks on point—wins against Hurricane, Patience and MyuNgSiK where he looked much the superior player. This should again be an easy KT win.

Ace: <Ulrena>

I seriously doubt it’s going to get this far, but if it does, MVP remain wide open in terms of possible aces. No one particularly stands out, and it’ll likely be DeParture (should they keep trusting him after his recent losses) or GuMiho who steps up here. Meanwhile, after keeping the faith following his dual losses to SKT, it really wouldn’t make sense to drop TY from ace match duty for KT.

Predictions

DeParture < Zest
GuMiho > Leenock
Ryung < TY
Blaze < Stats

MVP 1 - 3 KT

CJ vs SKT

ByuL <Lerilak Crest> Dark

ByuL has been poor in the mirror matchup of late. Ignore his Proleague win over Solar—his 0-3 loss in SSL was far more instructive of where he stands, while he was easily outmanoeuvred by Rogue. It’s actually a weakness that stretches back throughout his career—it’s always been his greatest weakness. It’s therefore going to be pretty interesting to see what Dark comes up with. ZvZ is the only matchup he remains unproven in for this new expansion, and he’ll likely bring the same aggressive instincts that have fuelled his play in the ZvT and ZvP.


RagnaroK <Prion Terraces> soO

Meanwhile, it’s time for RagnaroK to prove he’s not a one trick pony. A Proleague win over DeParture was a good start, but still a bit strange that his lofty standing in the SSL came off two batches of roach / nydus aggression against ByuN and INnoVation. soO will certainly prove to be a tougher test. The king of Korean ZvZ will be looking to restore his status. We simply haven’t seen him often enough, but when we do, he’s always seemed strong. An offline map record of 20-9, including wins over TY and INnoVation, is strong, and until he proves otherwise, I’ll happily back him in the mirror matchup.

herO <Orbital Shipyard> Dream

Time for a grudge match. herO and Dream already have a mini-rivalry going since last year. In Season 2, herO knocked Dream out of the GSL with a 2-0 in the Losers’ Match of their Ro.16 group. He must’ve been pretty pleased…until Dream smashed him 4-0 in the SSL semifinals the very next day using the strats he’d hidden first time round. Two weeks ago, herO found little success with his aggression against Dream, horribly overcommitting and losing the series (and top spot in their GSL group). Let’s see if he’s learnt his lesson.

Bunny <Ruins of Seras> INnoVation

Last week, I said that Bunny had no chance against Maru. He duly lost. This week, I’m going to say he’s got no chance against INnoVation. His TvZ might have been relatively impressive against Soulkey and Symbol, but in the mirror matchup, INnoVation should clean up here.

Ace: <Ulrena>

I don’t think it’ll get this far, but bet on herO acing if it does. On SKT’s side, I would have backed Dark were it not for the fact that he’s in a terran / zerg group in GSL on Wednesday, and likely won’t be practicing for a protoss. In that case, Dream or INnoVation are the likely candidates.


Predictions

ByuL < Dark
RagnaroK < soO
herO > Dream
Bunny < INnoVation

CJ 1 - 3 SKT

Jin Air vs Samsung

Maru <Ulrena> Dear

This is the set of the week for me. Maru vs Dear is a rivalry that I’d love to see return. In 2013, it ushered in the final coronation of Dear, with the ex-STX protoss coming out on top in both the GSL and WCS Season 3 semifinals. Those gave us some of the greatest PvTs we saw that whole year, and even though Dear’s form dipped shortly afterwards, it’s often forgotten that alongside PartinG and herO, Dear was one of the only protosses who managed to beat Maru throughout the first half of 2015. We’ve seen that Maru’s TvP is formidable (even though he lost to Zest); time to see if Dear can rise to match him.


Cure <Lerilak Crest> Reality

TvT time now, and it’s time for a new test for Cure. We’ve seen from his GSL group that his TvP (vs Stork) and TvZ (vs Curious) are both pretty solid. However, he’s not really played many offline games, the most notable being his pair of Proleague matches with aLive. There, he seemed to be the superior mechanical player, but was out-thought by the veteran. His online form has been spotty as well, taking a 3-0 over GuMiho before losing the rematch 0-3 in the same tournament, later that same day. Reality’s also an online TvT warrior, and hasn’t played one offline since his Code A loss to SpeeD. It’s practically a toss up, but I’ll go for Cure.


sOs <Dusk Towers> Journey

It’s still unclear which sOs will turn up on any given day. Will it be the player who dominated IEM Taipei? Or will it be the player who’s failed at every other offline event so far in Legacy? Perhaps that’s harsh—he’s certainly faced top tier opposition, and up against a relatively weak player in Journey, he should be more than confident in breaking his Proleague duck.


Rogue <Prion Terraces> Solar

A match between the two underperforming star zergs to end things, then. Solar’s baffling dichotomy between individual and team commitments continues, while Rogue hasn’t been the consistent zerg that Jin Air have relied on for the past two campaigns. As mentioned earlier, Solar’s ZvZ has been slightly suspect recently, dropping two maps to RagnaroK and losing to ByuL in Proleague, although it has to be mentioned that his online record is pretty good. On Rogue’s side, it looks like his awful week (0-6 to Super, Journey, TaeJa and Stats in Proleague / GSL) may have been a blip—he’s beaten Cure and Soulkey online, and ByuL offline since.


Ace: <Orbital Shipyard>

Despite their odd pick of BrAvO as ace against KT, I still feel like Dear or Solar has to be the ace for Samsung—there’s simply no one else on the team of that calibre. Meanwhile, you could say the same for Rogue / sOs / Maru for Jin Air. sOs has been struggling recently though, and probably shouldn’t be risked in case Solar comes out. Should Maru win against Dear, he’s the obvious pick here.

Predictions

Maru > Dear
Cure > Reality
sOs > Journey

Jin Air 3 - 0 Samsung