EPTWCS EU Ro32 - Group H Preview
Countdown:
When the new changes for WCS 2015 were announced, the biggest point of contention was the stricter region locking that Blizzard wanted to implement. Foreign players now had to reside in the region they wanted to compete in, implying a larger investment in both time and money for Koreans hoping to make a quick buck outside their home country. Despite the Korean domination over WCS titles since the format's inception, Europe shrugged its shoulders at the change. Many of the Koreans participating in their region were already living among them, and in many ways were now adopted by the continent. Add the fact that the region has acquitted itself well despite the influx of talent, and you have a healthy competitive scene constantly striving to improve.
In season 1, there were 10 Europeans in the Ro16. In season 2, there were 9. This season, we'll have no less than 9 once again. It's a very good turnout, but foreigners have typically failed to overcome the Ro16, with only 2 or 3 locals reaching the bracket stages each season. With only one group left in the Ro32, at least one of Serral, Grubby, and Happy will reach the next stage of the competition where the true test of their mettle awaits. Standing in their way is the Season 1 champion MC.
As one of the first permanent migrant players,
MC initially struggled to reach Premier, falling in Challenger League to Grubby. Since then, MC has yet to place outside the top 8. He was a silver medalist in two consecutive seasons before finally breaking his duck in Season 1 2014, making him the only player to have a Premier Tournament victory in 2010 and 2014. His longevity as a top competitor is unparalleled, and while many consider themselves fans of the Boss Toss, still more have an outdated opinion of his play style. While he made his name early in WoL as the king of all ins, MC has adapted with the times as protoss transitioned from the 2-base race to the one trying desperately to reach the late game. What makes him different is the edge that he gained playing and winning titles in 2010 and 2011, as he remains one of the most decisive protoss in the world. If his opponent is bleeding, he can smell it. If his opponent is weak, he can sense it. Many top level protoss like Classic, Rain, and Zest are undeniably excellent, but they are often caught playing with their food and take their time closing out games that look all but won. MC's knowledge of striking lethal blows can also be seen in PartinG, with whom he shares the penchant for pushing the issue. The flipside of this trait is the tendency to overextend, and MC lives and dies with his attacks.Lately though, it's been working. He placed second in DreamHack Valencia when he fell in the 5th game of the finals to one-hit-wonder (so far) Sacsri, and he came close to reaching the bracket stages of a stacked IEM Toronto. His game against Flash in their respective first games of the tournament stands out as one of the best from the weekend, where a scrappy and tense game unfolded on Overgrowth. The KT Ace had been crushing protoss left and right, but MC's conservative openings and abundance of gateways allowed him to survive every assault. Expect him to continue playing a similar PvT style, especially in the first two rounds of the tournament. Against zerg, he seems close to immune against non-Koreans, and his two base all-ins can still kill almost any zerg on the planet. The true concern for the season 1 champion is his PvP, which barely floats above 50% in HoTS. In the last month alone, he has lost to HuK, First, MyuNgSiK, and Lilbow, and seeing him fall to European protoss is no longer a surprise. He shouldn't be worried until at least the Ro16, however, as he is still the most accomplished and in-form player in this group.
In contrast to the Boss Toss is
Serral, who remains one of the most mysterious players in WCS EU. He first caught our attention back in January at ASUS ROG, narrowly losing to Taeja 2-3. Since then, he has performed admirably in DreamHacks and smaller European tournaments, regularly advancing to the latter group stages until he meets a local hero or foreign import. He rarely goes down without a fight though, and he has recorded close defeats to some of the best players in the world such as MC, jjakji and TY. Serral is also officially the second best Finnish player behind Welmu, finishing runner up at IeSF Qualifiers Finland by a score of 2-4. Welmu remains one of the few Europeans able to reach the Ro8 with regularity, so pushing him to 6 games is no easy feat. Unfortunately for the young Finn, ZvP continues to be his bane. While he has had no trouble beating on non WCS competition, he has labored to take series off more accomplished players. He did surprise StarDust to top their group in DreamHack Summer, but victories like that are few and far between. With only one terran in this group, he won't be able to rely on the matchup that has impressed us the most, and even if he is able to overcome the veteran Happy, he might have difficulty beating either of his protoss groupmates.That other protoss happens to be
Grubby, a legend in his own right albeit in a different game. Though he has yet to find success in SC2, he remains one of the few foreigners to reach the Ro4 of WCS. He came within a game of overcoming duckdeok in Season 2 2013, and history could have been completely different had he found the nerve to close it out on Bel'shir Vestige. Since then, his playing career has slowly winded down as he transitions into a caster and analyst. He has had a tough time qualifying for tournaments, and, on the occasion that he does make it, he has been sadly knocked out early. He did make the Ro16 during both of his previous WCS campaigns, but there is a large section of the community that looks forward to his casting more than his games. His experiences as a top level competitor and ex-champion allow him to provide insight that very few other analysts can provide; he and ToD are currently the two most accomplished players moving into casting. He may have to prolong his career change, however, as he continues to perform on the stage of WCS. He has always been known for his PvP, and many of his best games and performances have come off the back of his mirror. His understanding of the race shines whenever he is brought to the casting desk, and he has never been shy about beating Koreans--he's beaten Daisy, Arthur, Genius and Patience (3x) this year. He plays a safe and methodical style, and often prepares build orders suited to his opponent. His PvZ is almost as strong, and he relies on his knowledge of timings to set back the zerg economy before closing out games in the mid or late game. Somehow, those strengths have no translated to his PvT, which stands below 50%. He appears streaky in the matchup, as he demolished 5 straight terrans to qualify for WCS EU Season 1 before once again going on a losing streak. He's currently approaching another nadir; since DreamHack Valencia, he is 3-7. That should still be a cause for concern despite his first opponent being the slumping Happy.
Once one of the most popular European Terrans,
Happy's results have declined with time. He reached the Ro8 in the very first season of WCS EU before making the Ro16 twice, but in 2014 he has yet to escape the first group stage. He is still a fixture of Premier League and has never fallen out, but he has been overtaken by the likes of Bunny, Dayshi and soon even uThermal. His stats over at aligulac show that he still retains over 60% winrates in all his matchups and his rating has never been higher, but many of his results are online against the rows of European fodder. He's only attended two offline tournaments this year, the Coppenhagen Games and ASUS ROG Winter, and while he did perform well in the former, he only faced 3 top level players in Golden, elfi and HyuN. This was also back in April, and he has pretty much been absent from LANs since. He often gets far in qualifiers, but fails at the last hurdle against Premier League opponents. As such it's been difficult to catch his games in tournament settings, and our memories of him as one of the best terrans in Europe is slowly fading. As 2014 comes to a close, this might be the last chance for him to remind us that he's not done just yet.Overall thoughts and predictions:
MC should get out and reach the Ro8 at least, just like always, but his place atop the group might not be assured. If he meets Grubby in the winners' match, there's a good chance that the WC3 legend will put his PvP knowledge to good use and advance in first. Though Serral is one of the brightest young talents in Europe, it's difficult to imagine him beating MC twice if comes down to it. He'll be hoping to reach a final match against Grubby, where he should have a better shot. Happy has left us in every Ro32 he's reached in 2014, and I doubt that things are going to change for him this season.
MC > Serral
Grubby > Happy
MC < Grubby
Serral > Happy
MC > Serral
Grubby and MC advance to the Ro16.
Serral all the way! 
