WCS Europe Ro32

Brackets and standings on Liquipedia

Countdown:

It must be strange for First and YoDa, potentially meeting like this. After being released by Incredible Miracle over 8 months ago, they both departed for Europe in hopes of continuing their careers on a different continent. Out of their team and out of luck, it was a sour end to what should have been a remarkable year for the two potential successors to their illustrious team's conveyor belt of contenders. When they met in the finals of IEM World Championships 2013, the debut tournament of Heart of the Swarm, everyone took notice: these two were going to become stars.

Instead, they each had their day in the sun before quietly searching for greener pastures anew. For YoDa, that day was IEM WC. For First, it was his semi final finish in the WCS Season 2 Finals. Since then, neither player has come that close to another shot at stardom. While YoDa has placed reasonably in a few DreamHacks, someone once called the best player on IM should be doing better than Ro16 exits. While First reached the Ro8 of WCS EU last season and finished 5th in DreamHack Summer, many argued that he was still competitive in Code S and should be demolishing the old continent. Though it has taken a while, it looks like the two former teammates have finally settled into their new surroundings and are poised to make this season their own.

Both players have looked strong in qualifiers over the past two months, and much of their form heading into tonight will be gleaned from their online play. First defeated Welmu, HyuN, Sacsri and YoDa, while YoDa beat Snute, MMA, Golden and HyuN to qualify for IEM Toronto. Though neither player was able to earn a spot for Red Bull Battleground in Washington, they both had impressive runs. The free agent protoss went through Symbol, Creator, Center, MC, Armani and MyuNgSiK over several qualifiers, while the 2013 IEM champion fell at the last hurdle to Cure and herO after slaughtering ByuL, herO (twice), Curious, Hurricane, and Solar. Their respective hitlists look like something you'd see in the bracket stages of an offline tournament, and it is easy to see how both players would be considered top 2 in almost any group they could have fallen in.

When First was still competing in Korea, many considered him something of a Rain-lite. He played a standard game and rarely relied on unpredictable hijinks, while his defense was tight as a lock. He was also one of the players that enjoyed using storm drops in every matchup, and he continues to brandish this weapon whenever possible. Despite losing to StarDust 1-3 in last season's Ro8, PvP is still First's strongest matchup. His 70% winrate in PvP is a rare number to see, and while you'd expect it to be exaggerated by wins against European semi pros, his only losses since then have actually come against those semi pros in online cups. His predictable play of almost always using twilight tech was exposed last season by StarDust, and it's possible that his unstreamed losses were due to similarly planned strategies. This also happens to be his weakness in PvT due to his well known tendency to prefer sitting back and playing greedy. His only recent losses in the matchup were against KeeN, Apocalypse and MarineLord, all players known to prefer timing attacks and mid game aggression. His impressive form in the mirror notwithstanding, First must be diligent not to get caught off guard. If he can make it to the late game, very few players can stop him.

While First is like a steam engine that needs time to gain momentum within games, YoDa's recent rise coincides with the terran SCV train's resurgence. He has taken a cue from players such as INnoVation and Flash in TvP, relying on either heavy greed on three quick bases for a quicker SCV pull or unpredictable early game attacks to attempt and destabilize the protoss. Though it seems like a one dimensional style of play, it's effectiveness is not in question; expect YoDa to pull the boys at every opportunity. In the mirror, YoDa had Mvp to learn from, and he has shown a breadth of play similar to his former tutor. He's not the type to go CC first every game, and you almost expect him to take an early gas whether it's for banshees, a drop, early stim, or something else entirely. That isn't to say that his play is unpredictable; he simply draws from a vast array of builds. Though he's no SuperNova, he should have something special in store for his first terran opponent in hopes of reaching the winners' match to face his old friend.

But if they are to have any chance of making it through this group together, they must face a familiar foe in MMA. The former SlayerS ace was 2013 Season 3's champion and 2014 Season 1's runner up, and he has maintained his Premier League status for 6 straight seasons. He's one of the most successful players in WCS EU, and he's always had an eye for taking down people from IM. While this looks like an opportunity for the former IM players to seek revenge, they should actually look at MMA as inspiration. Once a title contender and GSL champion himself, he struggled in 2012 during the tumult of SlayerS. After disbanding, he joined Acer and became one of the first exports to Europe. He has treated the continent and its competitions as his own Lazarus pit, slowly building his confidence and strength. It culminated in his title winning bout in Season 1, and he has looked, in many ways, like the MMA of old.

While that means he remains impressive in TvZ and TvT, he still has a susceptibility against protoss. Over the past two months, MMA hasn't faced many Premier League worthy protoss players. He lost to MC at Gfinity G3, though he did defeat StarNaN to advance from Premier League. The current metagame of SCV pulls and bludgeoning the protoss directly just doesn't suit his harass based style, and it'll be interesting to see whether he adapts like YoDa or maintains his own path.

With three big names ahead of him, it's easy to forget that ShoWTimE has been in Premier League in 3 out of the 6 seasons. He's never fallen out completely since first appearing in WCS EU in 2013 Season 2, but his one memorable Ro16 aside, he has regularly failed to make it past the first group stage. When he did make it, it was against Mvp twice, winning 2-1 in both series. Since then, he hasn't quite had an easy a time. Whenever he enters tournaments, he falls to the first Korean or top shelf European he faces. At first glance, he seems like one of those European players that's just as good as anyone the continent has to offer, but doesn't have that special sauce to get him over the hump. Surprisingly, ShoWTimE has a decent record against Koreans with a 48% winrate. Many of those victories have come from online cups, but he did beat MMA 2-1 during DreamHack Summer. More than any specific matchup, ShoWTimE will have to rely on his penchant for rare yet well placed Korean upsets. Unfortunately for him, he's going to need to do it against two or three different players tonight.

Overall predictions:
We haven't mentioned that this is actually one of the most difficult Ro32 groups. First, YoDa and MMA are all semi final worthy players, yet at least one of them will be knocked out tonight. ShoWTimE will have to draw from the same magic well that allowed him to beat Mvp last year, but it won't be another greedy double forge build. While it's easy to see any of these players advancing, the form behind First and YoDa and their qualifier success is just too difficult to ignore, so they should be able to navigate and exciting series of games to the Ro16.

First > ShoWTimE
YoDa > MMA
First < YoDa
ShoWTimE < MMA
First > MMA

YoDa and First advance.

Writers: lichter.
Photos: ESL.
Editors: lichter.