EPTWCS America Group F Preview
by Darkhorse
The WCS America round of 32 begins its final week with group F, where two foreigners will once again do battle with two Koreans for a trip to Los Angeles for the next phase of the tournament. Through the first five groups in Season 2, not a single foreigner had advanced to the round of 16. Compare that with this season in which four foreigners have already claimed their spots in the next round, and foreigner fans now have reason to hope.". Anything can happen today with two of the strongest foreigners in WCS AM facing off against two lesser known Koreans.
Ax.Heart is a player that has flown under the radar for a long time. Back in Wings of Liberty he had a (perhaps deserved) reputation for being a bit of a cheeser, but all that has changed over the past year or so in Heart of the Swarm. Season 2 was Heart's best season yet, as he was able to reach the semifinals before being knocked out 3-1 by Bomber. Maybe no one noticed, but Heart's run was extremely impressive. He defeated Jaedong, Jim, Pigbaby (who went on to win the tournament), Xigua, and 3-0d viOLet in a one sided series in the Round of 8. Xigua was probably the weakest opponent that he faced during his run, but game two of that series showcased just how good Heart can be in TvZ. There may still be Heart doubters, but I see no reason to not consider Heart the favorite heading into this group. The TvP prowess he showed against Jim and Pigbaby last season gives me enough confidence to pick him over Seed in his opening match, and everyone who has watched WCS America recently knows how good Heart's TvZ is. Incidentally, his Ro32 group in Season 1 of this year included both TooDming and Scarlett, and Heart defeated both to advance in first place. This season has been a tough one for Team Axiom, but I expect Heart will be lifting TB's spirits today.
Heart's first opponent will be a perennial top four finisher on lists of the most forgotten GSL winners of all time:
d.Seed. Seriously, the guy seemed to drop from a GSL Champion to a below average Korean in about a week, and it has taken him a long time to get back into a Premier League like WCS America. Recently, Seed fans have gotten a small dose of hope as Seed did fight his way to the Championship bracket at MLG (finishing 9th-12th) and qualified for this season of WCS America through the Ladder Wildcard Qualifier. It is difficult to gauge Seed's chances in this group, as he doesn't show up in many significant tournaments. He has played a grand total of two tournament PvT's over the past month and a half in whcih he beat Hack 2-1 in the Dragon Invitational and lost to RuFF (???) in the Red Bull Global Qualifier. He hasn't played a great deal of PvZ either, but his win over Curious in the qualifer indicates that at least Seed is at a decent level in the matchup. Respect should be given to all past GSL champions, but Seed hasn't shown me enough to be considered one of the favorites to get out of this group.
The Chinese Zerg
ZOO.TooDming has made the most of his spot in Premier League from the Chinese Qualifier back in Season 1, and has kept himself in Premier League by finishing top 16 in each season since. Although he fell just shy of the round of 8 in both Seasons 1 and 2, TooDming is a proven contender in WCS America with wins over opponents like Scarlett, Bomber, and Check. The question for this season is can he be the first Chinese Zerg to make it to the bracket stage?The first hurdle he needs to overcome will be a difficult one, as this group holds a few opponents that could be trouble for TooDming. His opening match against Scarlett should be an interesting ZvZ, as TooDming won their last WCS meeting with a two-base roach nydus with accompanying drones to build spore crawlers on Scarlett's creep in game one. He then pulled off a full roach surround to take game 2 and the series. Against Heart or Seed, TooDming will likely be the underdog, but that doesn't necessarily mean he will lose. Our information level on TooDming is pretty high given that he attended both MLG Anaheim and Red Bull Atlanta over the past two months, and has beaten both Choya and Bomber over that span. For the third season in a row, TooDming comes in as an underdog who is capable of pulling off big upsets.
Finally,
Acer.Scarlett - the consensus best player in North America - rounds out today's group.. Scarlett has had a disappointing year as far as WCS goes: she dropped out of the Ro32 in Season 1 with losses to both Heart and TooDming (this group may just trigger some latent PTSD) and was defeated 3-0 in Challenger League of Season 2 by hendralisk. Outside of WCS, however, Scarlett has had a relatively successful year. She won Red Bull Battlegrounds North America with a dominating 6-1 record over Polt, finished top four at Homestory Cup IX with a 1-3 loss to eventual champion TaeJa, and had an incredible run at MLG Anaheim where she shocked and awed fans everywhere by defeating DRG with Protoss. There is no doubt that Scarlett is one of the top foreigners, and that she is also one of the most interesting players to watch in all of Starcraft II.Today is all about revenge for Scarlett, as two of her three potential opponents in this group denied her a trip to the Ro16 of Season 1. Had she done that, she never would have fallen to Challenger in Season 2 to suffer that embarrassing 0-3 loss to hendralisk. Scarlett has been doing her usual thing since MLG: dominating NA only qualifiers. But now it's time for her to face world class opponents and reclaim a stable position in WCS America once more.
Overall Thoughts and Prediction:
Heart should be the favorite coming into this group. Seed hasn't been on the same level as Heart for quite some time and Heart has been showcasing the best TvZ in the WCS America region even before the recent Terran buffs. Theoretically, the second spot should be a toss up amongst the final three in which anyone could advance., but my money is on Scarlett to finally get back to the later stages of WCS America.
Heart > Seed
TooDming < Scarlett
Seed < TooDming
Heart > Scarlett
TooDming < Scarlett
Heart and Scarlett advance.
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