by lichter and CosmicSpiral

Group L: Savage, Dark, Seed, Pet

Friday, Jan 24 4:30am GMT (GMT+00:00)

Group L is a collection of has-beens and never-weres. On the one side a former champion seeks a return to prominence, haunted by ghosts of better times. On the other are three young Zergs who have showed enough promise (and failures) to be mildly interesting. The fights here won’t be inherently interesting but such groups are never about the games themselves. Tonight we’ll have the opportunity to judge whether they will become historical footnotes or future pillars of the scene.

Out of the remaining StarTale interns who haven’t broken out, ST_Pet offers the best chance of becoming a stable contributor. Ever since he took down some formidable names in the KSL Team League, Pet has played the part of a skilled protégé with a debilitating weakness. In his case the problem is ZvZ. Despite some excellent series against Squirtle and Supernova last season, Pet’s abysmal showings in GSTL make him an underdog here. Dark and Rogue are not savants in the matchup but they are more than good enough to take the StarTale zerg in any scenario. If Pet doesn’t get a chance at ZvP he will be hard-pressed to secure his first Code S showing.

Snazzy name changes are a sign of desired change. Whether Vengeance, formerly known as Seed, has in fact turned a new leaf (mmmm, low-hanging fruit) will be partially shown tonight. The former Code S title holder knows he no longer needs to recapture his mojo: that would imply his early 2012 form is sufficient to overcome the strategies and opposition of today. Instead he must reform himself as someone separate from that depleted legacy. So far his journey had produced mixed results. Vengeance has not done much of note since making the RO8 of HSC VII. On the other hand, he remains a lock to get through the Code A qualifiers. On the other other hand, he manages to predictably break our hearts when a breakthrough is within reach. I guess that tips the scales in favor of progress…from a perspective.

It’s fortunate that SKT_Dark finds himself on an unusually stable streak. Usually composure and discipline are the deal breakers in group stages, and the SKT T1 Zerg lacks the public experience to rely on these. What he does have is the most stable streak of his career since NASL 4. Dark has shown some admirable performances in the IEM qualifiers, almost qualifying for Sau Paulo while defeating the likes of Maru and Curious. Even his losses showed small signs of gradual improvement. Granted, these were all online and he could easily flop once he notices how many people can see his (possibly) bad decisions. However he is also the best ZvZ player in the group with a 63% career winrate, and he has won 5 out of his last BoX ZvZ series. In another group he would be at best a notable opponent; here, he might be the primary hurdle for the others to climb.

In the battle of appropriately edgy names, JinAir_Rogue might have the advantage. I’d like to imagine the player formerly known as Savage finished a holiday run of 80’s themed action movies just prior to Proleague. “The rules of Thunderdome are exactly like the booth,” he mused in the lonely dark. “I bet Effort is Master Blaster in his spare time. Goddamn he freaks me out sometimes.” As he tries to forget that horrible picture, Rogue remembers that 4 am viewing of RoboCop. “Maybe I should call myself Murphy instead. Prime objectives: serve the public trust, protect the innocent, and kick some terran ass. My new tag is MURPHY. Murphy. MuRphY?”

…he’s pretty good too. Go watch his Proleague games.

Predictions: In such a lopsided group, you’d expect Vengeance to get a distinct advantage in preparation. This would be reassuring if Seed 2.0 was a strong PvZ player. But besides a victory over Life in GSTL (not an accomplishment these days), he has not shown the consistency to exploit this loophole. The dearth of non-mirror matchups will make things wonky for all three zergs. Pet is notoriously bad in ZvZ when confronted with an audience while Rogue oscillates between looking great and looking lost. Dark looks like a lock based on records but one should never conflate online results with possible offline results. This group really boils down to whoever can maintain their focus despite the terrible implications of the new format.

Rogue and Seed advance.

Group K: Hydra, Dream, Ryung, TRUE

Friday, Jan 24 9:30am GMT (GMT+00:00)

A strong group on paper, further inspection shows that Group K is filled with players in varying stages of slumping. Despite being more famous than a lot of other Code A combatants, all of the members of this group will be desperate to make it to Code S to remind everyone of their talents.

The first player in the group is also the person experiencing the greatest decline. CJ_Hydra perfectly encapsulates the current predicament of CJ Entus in Proleague. After a successful run in IEM Singapore, making it all the way to the semi-finals in his first international tournament, everyone though that it would be his time to cement himself ahead of the veteran EffOrt. Similarly, CJ's success overseas and Coach Park's international marketing efforts made us overestimate their abilities. CJ finished round one with a disappointing 2-5 record, while Hydra has yet to win a single game (0-5). With 2 ZvTs on the horizon, Hydra will have to prove that our optimism after IEM was not misplaced.

He faces MVP.Dream, the prince of chaos, a player that was in Code S last season but was unable to get by Bbyong and Sleep. An able player in team leagues, especially in ATC, Dream has a knack for forcing messy, exciting games, especially in TvZ where he has a 60% win rate. It looks good for Dream in his initial match, but his TvT may hold him back if he faces Ryung in the winner's match.

Speaking of the Axiom Terran, Ryung is probably the most popular player in the group, and after qualifying for Code A quickly after switching regions to start 2014, most observers might consider him the strong favorite. But a quick glance at TLPD shows a different story: TvT and TvP at 50%, TvZ at 45%. This surprising discovery stands out even more when you consider that he spent the entirety of 2013 in WCS AM. After accomplishing a Ro4 finish in Season 1, he'd end the year languishing in Challenger League. Once known as the Forgotten Son of Boxer, his continued decline may some day force us to forget the heights of his abilities and reevaluate our expectations. He will attempt to prove himself worthy of his reputation as he faces TRUE in his first match.

Known for his hesitance to get up to Hive tech, JinAir_TRUE was once considered a great up and coming Zerg. After pondering retirement at the end of the last Proleague season, he's decided to stay the course with Jin Air Green Wings. Such an cold attitude toward the game contrasted with his fiery play, but in any case TRUE has slowly built back the momentum that once made him Jin Air's best Zerg. A solid showing in TeSL (finishing 4th behind San, Sen and Has) and a win in his Proleague debut – an inevitably ridiculous game against his "rival" FanTaSy – gives us hope that his banelings will continue to roll in Code S.

Predictions: Hydra doesn't look close to getting out of his slump, and with only Terrans and Zergs in this group, it looks like trouble for the CJ man. If he can find a way to face TRUE, he may have a shot at winning a series, but it looks grim for him. The Jin Air Zerg on the otherhand will hope to face two Terrans in a row and use his baneling heavy ZvT to advance in first. Second place will likely be fought for between Dream and Ryung, and the latter's slightly-not-as-bad TvT (and history of being good at it once upon a time) gives him an edge to squeak out Group K.

TRUE and Ryung to advance.