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On August 27 2013 17:54 klymen wrote:
I'm not as educated as Artosis or many of you here. In fact all my guesses are based on fanboyism towards specific players. But that being said I think it's worth noting that there is simply no such thing as a 'prediction based on statistical data' in Starcraft 2. And the reason behind that is because there are no statistical data in Starcraft 2.
Well that's not entirely true. There ARE some statistical data. But given the number of players, maps and races, there aren't enough games to make anything close to a prediction that can be qualified as 'based on statistical data'. The sample is simply too small. A game between Bomber and Innovation on Akilon Wastes cannot be predicated by their respectful TvT results from 10-20 previous TvT games. Not all maps are equal, not all races are equal and not all players are equal. There are enough variables during every match up that small things like jet lag, tournament experience, etc come into play. This makes every game a rather unique and discreet event that shares every little with its predecessors. All the percentages you see during tournament streams although fun and interesting, mean nothing within the scope of how a game is going to turn out.
Also what little statistical data that is collected during a specific set of time, is automatically invalidated following a patch. Regardless of how small a change, anything that affects how the game is played renders all previous results useless for any form of statistical prediction.
So with regards to Artosis and his predictions. There is no question that guy knows his shit. And as much fun as it is to talk/post about the "Artosis Curse™" it is important to note that he does actually make the correct prediction 50% of the time. This might seems a little low for someone who claims that that their predictions are based on "educated and in depth analysis." but in all honesty, what anyone predicates regarding high level Starcraft 2 tournament is just as likely as Artosis predictions.
TL;DR Given the number of races, maps and players there aren't enough data to make a prediction based on statistical data. patches also reset any data collected previously so at very high level there is no way to predict how a game is actually going to turn out. Which makes Artosis predictions for every match up as valid as a coin flip.
You can pick up tendencies though, look at how well Zealously predicts stuff.
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More predictions coming tonight! I'll need a little help recording the later match results because its going to be on way to late for me lol.
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Artosis : Bomber, you're never going to win code S.
Bomber won WCS Season 2 finals.
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I am not sure, if people are going to let this thread die peacefully, but I feel sorry for Artosis because his recent blog implied how he is sick and tired of this meme! 
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On August 28 2013 16:36 hansonslee wrote:I am not sure, if people are going to let this thread die peacefully, but I feel sorry for Artosis because his recent blog implied how he is sick and tired of this meme!
Honestly I kinda feel for the guy. Imagine your whole life's work centering around a particular niche thing like Starcraft, being the most knowledgeable guy in the world about it, but you don't get the respect you deserve because you make unlucky predictions. Personally, I think hes the coolest person in e-sports and I don't want to make him lose it because we keep propagating this 'meme'. I'm was hoping to make this thread more of an actual representation of how well he predicts more so than a joke thread making fun of his prediction skills. If he ever messages me about it, I'll take it down.
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On August 28 2013 17:58 BlackPanther wrote:Show nested quote +On August 28 2013 16:36 hansonslee wrote:I am not sure, if people are going to let this thread die peacefully, but I feel sorry for Artosis because his recent blog implied how he is sick and tired of this meme! Honestly I kinda feel for the guy. Imagine your whole life's work centering around a particular niche thing like Starcraft, being the most knowledgeable guy in the world about it, but you don't get the respect you deserve because you make unlucky predictions. Personally, I think hes the coolest person in e-sports and I don't want to make him lose it because we keep propagating this 'meme'. I'm was hoping to make this thread more of an actual representation of how well he predicts more so than a joke thread making fun of his prediction skills. If he ever messages me about it, I'll take it down.
Btw, I didn't meant to diss your thread because I can see how well you have been updating the thread.  I think jokes should be fun, if the subject of the joke is cool with it. Sadly, some people can be sadistic like that :/
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On August 28 2013 18:05 hansonslee wrote:Show nested quote +On August 28 2013 17:58 BlackPanther wrote:On August 28 2013 16:36 hansonslee wrote:I am not sure, if people are going to let this thread die peacefully, but I feel sorry for Artosis because his recent blog implied how he is sick and tired of this meme! Honestly I kinda feel for the guy. Imagine your whole life's work centering around a particular niche thing like Starcraft, being the most knowledgeable guy in the world about it, but you don't get the respect you deserve because you make unlucky predictions. Personally, I think hes the coolest person in e-sports and I don't want to make him lose it because we keep propagating this 'meme'. I'm was hoping to make this thread more of an actual representation of how well he predicts more so than a joke thread making fun of his prediction skills. If he ever messages me about it, I'll take it down. Btw, I didn't meant to diss your thread because I can see how well you have been updating the thread. I think jokes should be fun, if the subject of the joke is cool with it. Sadly, some people can be sadistic like that :/
Yah. I just updated the thread so its more fair for Artosis. Basically I'll only track recent results where it'll be easier to get his predictions. I'll still add old predictions but I won't track them in the prediction rate.
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Artosis is a competitive guy, so it sucks for him to have his name associated with failure (Artosis Pylon, Artosis Curse), but he needs to understand that the memes only exist because of his success.
I mean, think about it. Nobody would give two fucks if Kelly Milkies got a bunch of predictions wrong. Nobody would care if Orb lost a game because of a single pylon. No offense to either, I'm sure they're great people and work(ed?) really hard, but they obviously didn't have nearly the impact as Artosis has had on the scene. He is StarCraft.
It sucks to see what probably seems like the entire community poking fun at you, but it could be so much worse. At least people aren't questioning his passion and dedication like people do with Day[9] and Tasteless (must run in the family). There's no pitchfork mob trying to drive him out of casting like Moletrap and SNM. I could go on but you get the point. Everyone has to deal with negative attention from the community, but I think Artosis gets the lightest form of it.
And I don't think that's a coincidence. He's great, and everyone knows it.
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On August 28 2013 21:31 z0rz wrote:
Artosis is a competitive guy, so it sucks for him to have his name associated with failure (Artosis Pylon, Artosis Curse), but he needs to understand that the memes only exist because of his success.
I mean, think about it. Nobody would give two fucks if Kelly Milkies got a bunch of predictions wrong. Nobody would care if Orb lost a game because of a single pylon. No offense to either, I'm sure they're great people and work(ed?) really hard, but they obviously didn't have nearly the impact as Artosis has had on the scene. He is StarCraft.
It sucks to see what probably seems like the entire community poking fun at you, but it could be so much worse. At least people aren't questioning his passion and dedication like people do with Day[9] and Tasteless (must run in the family). There's no pitchfork mob trying to drive him out of casting like Moletrap and SNM. I could go on but you get the point. Everyone has to deal with negative attention from the community, but I think Artosis gets the lightest form of it.
And I don't think that's a coincidence. He's great, and everyone knows it.
Yeah, it's like Goody's macro. It's funny and awesome because the guy is so amazing. Any bronze can make amusingly bad predictions or queue up 5 SCVs, but it isn't really special. What makes things like this legendary is the fact that, aside from that one glaringly obvious flaw, the person in question wields stupendous talent and skill. It's more of a defining trait, something that makes him unique and interesting, than it is an annoying problem that needs to be fixed. I guess you could say it's become part of the legend.
Artosis's sick hype probably doesn't hurt this meme, either. He's made more than a few tournaments some of the most memorable of my life.
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On August 28 2013 16:36 hansonslee wrote:I am not sure, if people are going to let this thread die peacefully, but I feel sorry for Artosis because his recent blog implied how he is sick and tired of this meme!
That's surprising. The Artosis Curse exists because he's one of the most influential people in the game. Having cooky things like curses and rivalries and traditions is one of the signs of a maturing community- SC2 has been out long enough, and is popular enough, to have these things. Artosis is a figurehead, and everyone associates him with being the premier analyst/knowledgebase (also Apollo). The Artosis Curse might be a slightly dubious honor, but it is an honor none the less! Wear it with pride bro.
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On August 28 2013 22:55 Crownlol wrote:Show nested quote +On August 28 2013 16:36 hansonslee wrote:I am not sure, if people are going to let this thread die peacefully, but I feel sorry for Artosis because his recent blog implied how he is sick and tired of this meme! That's surprising. The Artosis Curse exists because he's one of the most influential people in the game. Having cooky things like curses and rivalries and traditions is one of the signs of a maturing community- SC2 has been out long enough, and is popular enough, to have these things. Artosis is a figurehead, and everyone associates him with being the premier analyst/knowledgebase (also Apollo). The Artosis Curse might be a slightly dubious honor, but it is an honor none the less! Wear it with pride bro.
Artosis makes his money by selling gameplay knowledge. Having a bad reputation when it comes down to predicting is a serious issue for him.
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On August 28 2013 23:08 Big J wrote:Show nested quote +On August 28 2013 22:55 Crownlol wrote:On August 28 2013 16:36 hansonslee wrote:I am not sure, if people are going to let this thread die peacefully, but I feel sorry for Artosis because his recent blog implied how he is sick and tired of this meme! That's surprising. The Artosis Curse exists because he's one of the most influential people in the game. Having cooky things like curses and rivalries and traditions is one of the signs of a maturing community- SC2 has been out long enough, and is popular enough, to have these things. Artosis is a figurehead, and everyone associates him with being the premier analyst/knowledgebase (also Apollo). The Artosis Curse might be a slightly dubious honor, but it is an honor none the less! Wear it with pride bro. Artosis makes his money by selling gameplay knowledge. Having a bad reputation when it comes down to predicting is a serious issue for him.
I disagree. Artosis makes his money by being a figurehead. "All Publicity is Good Publicity" they say. No one insinuates that Artosis doesn't know what he is talking about... merely that he is cursed when predicting winners.
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I really understand Artosis. Making fun of a failed prediction is ok. But when you see 20 posts on reddit about it with titles like 'F*uck you Artosis ffs' it's really stupid.
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4713 Posts
Well the whole curse thing wouldn't be so bad if it was used to casually tease him and only ever so often. But now its gotten to the point where, every time a fan favorite that Artosis was just rooting for loses, he gets a lot of unnecessary hate, and the joke is now way, way too overused.
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On August 28 2013 17:58 BlackPanther wrote:Show nested quote +On August 28 2013 16:36 hansonslee wrote:I am not sure, if people are going to let this thread die peacefully, but I feel sorry for Artosis because his recent blog implied how he is sick and tired of this meme! Honestly I kinda feel for the guy. Imagine your whole life's work centering around a particular niche thing like Starcraft, being the most knowledgeable guy in the world about it, but you don't get the respect you deserve because you make unlucky predictions. Personally, I think hes the coolest person in e-sports and I don't want to make him lose it because we keep propagating this 'meme'. I'm was hoping to make this thread more of an actual representation of how well he predicts more so than a joke thread making fun of his prediction skills. If he ever messages me about it, I'll take it down.
I see what you're saying but I hope Artosis take this in stride and continues to predict or cheer for whoever he likes. Will people continue to wait for his predictions? Yup, just like how people look for the Artosis iNcontroL pylon. It is not the most positive image but for the most part everyone knows it is all just for fun. Also, I don't think there's any other SC2 figure apart from Artosis who is constantly mentioned in almost any game.
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On August 29 2013 00:12 Kinon wrote:
I really understand Artosis. Making fun of a failed prediction is ok. But when you see 20 posts on reddit about it with titles like 'F*uck you Artosis ffs' it's really stupid.
No one in this thread is saying fuck you artosis, we're all having a laugh at how what artosis predicts never seems to happen, even though they're perfectly valid predictions.
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On August 29 2013 01:24 Incognoto wrote:Show nested quote +On August 29 2013 00:12 Kinon wrote:
I really understand Artosis. Making fun of a failed prediction is ok. But when you see 20 posts on reddit about it with titles like 'F*uck you Artosis ffs' it's really stupid. No one in this thread is saying fuck you artosis, we're all having a laugh at how what artosis predicts never seems to happen, even though they're perfectly valid predictions.
Unfortunately as this meme grows in popularity, stupid people are bound to take it seriously. Also, the likelihood of Poe's appearing increases.
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On August 29 2013 01:31 julianto wrote:Show nested quote +On August 29 2013 01:24 Incognoto wrote:On August 29 2013 00:12 Kinon wrote:
I really understand Artosis. Making fun of a failed prediction is ok. But when you see 20 posts on reddit about it with titles like 'F*uck you Artosis ffs' it's really stupid. No one in this thread is saying fuck you artosis, we're all having a laugh at how what artosis predicts never seems to happen, even though they're perfectly valid predictions. Unfortunately as this meme grows in popularity, stupid people are bound to take it seriously. Also, the likelihood of Poe's appearing increases.
Meh, there's quite a few people in this community that take some things way too seriously, from EG curse and EG's "dirty money", to in-game "bm", to obvious trolling (see: many of TT1's posts) etc.
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On August 29 2013 01:24 Incognoto wrote:Show nested quote +On August 29 2013 00:12 Kinon wrote:
I really understand Artosis. Making fun of a failed prediction is ok. But when you see 20 posts on reddit about it with titles like 'F*uck you Artosis ffs' it's really stupid. No one in this thread is saying fuck you artosis, we're all having a laugh at how what artosis predicts never seems to happen, even though they're perfectly valid predictions.
I've actually seen more than 1 thread with such a title. Apparently it stopped being a joke for some people.
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EPT
