Wildcard Group

Symbol
      Expected score: 3.12-0.88 (sets: 3.12-0.88)
      Probability of achieving top 2: 82.80%
      Most likely place: 2nd (43.08%)

Byun
      Expected score: 2.50-1.50 (sets: 2.50-1.50)
      Probability of achieving top 2: 69.90%
      Most likely place: 2nd (40.10%)

Jaedong
      Expected score: 2.45-1.55 (sets: 2.45-1.55)
      Probability of achieving top 2: 45.00%
      Most likely place: 3rd (33.77%)

Center
      Expected score: 1.22-2.78 (sets: 1.22-2.78)
      Probability of achieving top 2: 2.31%
      Most likely place: 4th (77.81%)

Shine
      Expected score: 0.70-3.30 (sets: 0.70-3.30)
      Probability of achieving top 2: 0.00%
      Most likely place: 5th (100.00%)

details, data source, code

+ Show Spoiler [Details] +

Detailed placement probabilities

                     5th      4th      3rd      2nd      1st
         Shine:  100.00%                                    
        Symbol:             0.96%   16.25%   43.08%   39.72%
          Byun:                     30.10%   40.10%   29.80%
        Center:            77.81%   19.89%    2.31%         
       Jaedong:            21.24%   33.77%   14.51%   30.48%

Match score

                     0-4      1-3      2-2      3-1      4-0
         Shine:   29.73%   70.27%                           
        Symbol:                     13.90%   60.52%   25.57%
          Byun:                     55.87%   38.04%    6.09%
        Center:            77.63%   22.37%                  
       Jaedong:             7.19%   40.14%   52.66%         

Set score

                      -4       -3       -2       -1        0        1        2        3        4
         Shine:   29.73%            70.27%                                                      
        Symbol:                                       13.90%            60.52%            25.57%
          Byun:                                       55.87%            38.04%             6.09%
        Center:                     77.63%            22.37%                                    
       Jaedong:                      7.19%            40.14%            52.66%

Symbol vs. Jaedong

Symbol wins (32.16%):
1-0: 32.16%

Jaedong wins (67.84%):
1-0: 67.84%

Most likely winner: Jaedong (67.84%)
Median outcome: Symbol 0-1 Jaedong

details, data source, code

This is strange.... If Jaedong is so favored against Symbol, how comes his probability to advance is so low? Are his chances against center that low?

45% is not really low.
If Jaedong loses against Center, he loses tiebreaker vs Byun+Center, so he basically has to win both.

Shellshock

United States97276 Posts

January 11 2013 11:09 GMT

#744

On January 11 2013 20:08 Seeker wrote:
JD... Why you lose to Center?

He didnt :D

Ch3rry

Poland229 Posts

January 11 2013 11:09 GMT

#745

So if JD lose this game it would be quick end for today

glzElectromaster

Japan2474 Posts

January 11 2013 11:09 GMT

#746

On January 11 2013 20:07 JJH777 wrote:

Show nested quote +

If Byun goes 4-0 and Symbol loses his next 2 games and Jaedong goes 2-2 then there will be a 3 way tie.

So basically Symbol has to lose this next game to let Center get through? So weird, lol.

Well JD's ZvZ is pretty good and Symbol's is mediocre so we'll wait and see I guess.

skYTosS

United States188 Posts

January 11 2013 11:10 GMT

#747

6 pool sunken rush, go Jaedong!

Seeker

Where dat snitch at?37103 Posts

January 11 2013 11:10 GMT

#748

On January 11 2013 20:09 Shellshock1122 wrote:

Show nested quote +

He didnt :D

Mb, meant ByuN

Shellshock

United States97276 Posts

January 11 2013 11:10 GMT

#749

GSL S1 2013 Up & Down Matches Wildcard

Symbol (2-0) vs

Jaedong (1-1)
Map: Entombed Valley
**IF SYMBOL WINS THE WILDCARD GROUP IS OVER AND SYMBOL AND BYUN ADVANCE TO CODE S

0:00

Symbol spawns in the bottom left

Jaedong spawns in the top right

blade55555

United States17423 Posts

January 11 2013 11:10 GMT

#750

If jaedong loses this can he not advance anymore?

Shellshock

United States97276 Posts

January 11 2013 11:11 GMT

#751

On January 11 2013 20:10 blade55555 wrote:
If jaedong loses this can he not advance anymore?

correct. he cant advance due to tiebreakers

739

Bearded Elder29905 Posts

January 11 2013 11:11 GMT

#752

If Jaedong loses it's over.
GO JAEDONG

Hiea

Denmark1538 Posts

January 11 2013 11:11 GMT

#753

If Jaedong loses the day is over, since ByuN will at worst get 2-2, while Center/Jaedong can at best get 2-2, so they could be tied, but ByuN beat both so he advances, and if Symbol goes 3-0, no one except ByuN can get more than 3 wins.