U&D Group B

TaeJa
      Expected score: 3.70-1.30 (sets: 3.70-1.30)
      Probability of achieving top 2: 71.41%
      Most likely place: 1st (37.77%)

Squirtle
      Expected score: 3.63-1.37 (sets: 3.63-1.37)
      Probability of achieving top 2: 67.66%
      Most likely place: 1st (43.23%)

Shine
      Expected score: 2.63-2.37 (sets: 2.63-2.37)
      Probability of achieving top 2: 30.32%
      Most likely place: 4th (25.04%)

Trap
      Expected score: 2.42-2.58 (sets: 2.42-2.58)
      Probability of achieving top 2: 21.48%
      Most likely place: 3rd (24.97%)

Dream
      Expected score: 1.53-3.47 (sets: 1.53-3.47)
      Probability of achieving top 2: 7.02%
      Most likely place: 6th (31.40%)

Happy
      Expected score: 1.09-3.91 (sets: 1.09-3.91)
      Probability of achieving top 2: 2.12%
      Most likely place: 6th (51.52%)

details, data source, code

+ Show Spoiler [Details] +

Detailed placement probabilities

                     6th      5th      4th      3rd      2nd      1st
         TaeJa:    0.16%    2.98%    7.60%   17.85%   33.64%   37.77%
          Trap:   11.28%   18.18%   24.09%   24.97%   15.10%    6.38%
         Happy:   51.52%   27.41%   13.47%    5.49%    1.94%    0.18%
         Shine:    4.49%   16.79%   25.04%   23.36%   19.05%   11.27%
      Squirtle:    1.15%    4.55%    9.72%   16.92%   24.43%   43.23%
         Dream:   31.40%   30.09%   20.08%   11.42%    5.84%    1.18%

Match score

                     0-5      1-4      2-3      3-2      4-1      5-0
         TaeJa:                      6.56%   32.53%   44.91%   15.99%
          Trap:    2.17%   14.51%   35.04%   35.69%   12.60%         
         Happy:   25.49%   44.59%   25.28%    4.63%                  
         Shine:            11.35%   34.86%   36.05%   15.41%    2.33%
      Squirtle:             1.29%   10.36%   30.65%   39.32%   18.39%
         Dream:   13.36%   37.09%   34.60%   13.18%    1.76%         

Set score

                      -5       -4       -3       -2       -1        0        1        2        3        4        5
         TaeJa:                                        6.56%            32.53%            44.91%            15.99%
          Trap:    2.17%            14.51%            35.04%            35.69%            12.60%                  
         Happy:   25.49%            44.59%            25.28%             4.63%                                    
         Shine:                     11.35%            34.86%            36.05%            15.41%             2.33%
      Squirtle:                      1.29%            10.36%            30.65%            39.32%            18.39%
         Dream:   13.36%            37.09%            34.60%            13.18%             1.76%

Shine vs. Squirtle

Shine wins (28.15%):
1-0: 28.15%

Squirtle wins (71.85%):
1-0: 71.85%

Most likely winner: Squirtle (71.85%)
Median outcome: Shine 0-1 Squirtle

details, data source, code

FuzzyJAM

Scotland9300 Posts

January 07 2013 10:26 GMT

#249

On January 07 2013 19:23 sAsImre wrote:
this casting is just downright disrespectful toward happy lol.

Sometimes play deserves disrespect. It was poor play by Happy on pretty much all fronts.

That said, criticising the Vikings is a silly thing to do. You need Vikings when meching always.

blacksheepwall

China1530 Posts

January 07 2013 10:26 GMT

#250

Nice, another good showing from Taeja.

Good form that game.

Laryleprakon

New Zealand9496 Posts

January 07 2013 10:26 GMT

#251

Hopefully some closer games coming up!

Gimmeurladderpoints

Germany372 Posts

January 07 2013 10:27 GMT

#252

On January 07 2013 19:26 Schelim wrote:

Show nested quote +

also, he plays sc2 very well

I lold.

X3GoldDot

Malaysia3840 Posts

January 07 2013 10:28 GMT

#253

squirtle gonna go carriers and win again, he likes dem carriers in pvz

Sumahi

Guam5609 Posts

January 07 2013 10:28 GMT

#254

Alright Squirtle, we saw some great P v T, let's see from awesome P v Z now.

glzElectromaster

Japan2474 Posts

January 07 2013 10:28 GMT

#255

On January 07 2013 19:26 Schelim wrote:

Show nested quote +

also, he plays sc2 very well

hahaha

Taeja and I aren't much apart at all in age. I feel really bad being a plat terran lol.

X3GoldDot

Malaysia3840 Posts

January 07 2013 10:29 GMT

#256

he loves to transition to carriers after 1 gate expo, yep, this is carriers into win

Engore

United States1916 Posts

January 07 2013 10:30 GMT

#257

Shine in the bottom right. (P)

Squirtle in the top left.

(Wiki)

Antiga Shipyard

Squirtle not walling off. Gateway in the base.

Shine with hatch first.

glzElectromaster

Japan2474 Posts

January 07 2013 10:31 GMT

#258

when the "TSL Shine" came up, I almost cried. I'm not even sure why, but just thinking about hearing TSL in that voice for one of the last times ever just made me emotional. Sigh. I'm normally a hardheaded asian, but man.

Heartland

Sweden24593 Posts

January 07 2013 10:31 GMT

#259

This looks a lot like some of Naniwa's builds.

Engore

United States1916 Posts

January 07 2013 10:32 GMT

#260

On January 07 2013 19:30 Engore wrote:
(Z)

Shine in the bottom right. (P)

Squirtle in the top left.

(Wiki)

Antiga Shipyard

Squirtle not walling off. Gateway in the base.

Shine with hatch first.

4:30 Nexus going up with Squirtle.

Speed near halfway done for Shine.

5:45 Nexus finished. Warp gate almost finished and 3 gateways up.

Evo chamber almost done and 16 lings finishing for Shine.

6:50 3rd base for Shine