[Day 4] HomeStory Cup VI - Page 85

On December 22 2012 17:36 TheBB wrote:
Well, here are my numbers, for what they are worth. Symbol is a big favourite, after him there is basically Snute, Stephano and Xlord (!).

Yeah, take them with a grain of salt as usual, but I did get all advancees right yesterday, as well as 7 and 6/8 from days 2 and 1 respectively. So I guess it's not total BS.

Note: Third place match ignored.

HSC Bracket

Most likely winners:
      Symbol: 52.68%
      Snute: 17.67%
      Stephano: 11.21%
      XlorD: 10.73%
      TLO: 3.27%
      Grubby: 3.27%
      MarineKing: 0.87%
      BratOK: 0.29%

Life expectancy:
      Symbol: 2.04 rounds (lose in the finals)
      Stephano: 1.36 rounds (lose in the semifinals)
      Snute: 1.27 rounds (lose in the semifinals)
      XlorD: 1.11 rounds (lose in the semifinals)
      Grubby: 0.46 rounds (lose in the quarterfinals)
      TLO: 0.27 rounds (lose in the quarterfinals)
      BratOK: 0.24 rounds (lose in the quarterfinals)
      MarineKing: 0.24 rounds (lose in the quarterfinals)

Detailed placement probabilities

                   Top 8    Top 4    Top 2      Win
         Snute:   33.96%   22.67%   25.70%   17.67%
        Grubby:   66.04%   24.77%    5.92%    3.27%
    MarineKing:   83.38%   10.30%    5.44%    0.87%
      Stephano:   16.62%   42.26%   29.91%   11.21%
         XlorD:   21.98%   55.47%   11.82%   10.73%
        BratOK:   78.02%   19.96%    1.72%    0.29%
           TLO:   83.78%    8.25%    4.69%    3.27%
        Symbol:   16.22%   16.32%   14.79%   52.68%

Most likely to be eliminated by...

         Snute:      Grubby (33.96%)      Symbol (20.86%)    Stephano (19.58%)
        Grubby:       Snute (66.04%)    Stephano (21.54%)      Symbol ( 4.57%)
    MarineKing:    Stephano (83.38%)       Snute ( 7.88%)      Symbol ( 3.96%)
      Stephano:       Snute (35.49%)      Symbol (23.29%)  MarineKing (16.62%)
         XlorD:      Symbol (50.37%)      BratOK (21.98%)       Snute ( 6.06%)
        BratOK:       XlorD (78.02%)      Symbol (17.09%)         TLO ( 2.87%)
           TLO:      Symbol (83.78%)       XlorD ( 7.55%)       Snute ( 2.50%)
        Symbol:         TLO (16.22%)       XlorD (15.00%)       Snute ( 8.40%)

+ Show Spoiler [Snute vs. Grubby] +
+ Show Spoiler [MarineKing vs. Stephano] +
+ Show Spoiler [XlorD vs. BratOK] +
+ Show Spoiler [TLO vs. Symbol] +

details, data source, code