[GSL] Blizzard Cup Group A - Page 8

On December 14 2012 23:37 TheBB wrote:
Blizzard Cup Group A

PartinG
      Expected score: 3.01-0.99 (sets: 6.57-3.09)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 92.78%
      Most likely place: 1st (55.04%)

Leenock
      Expected score: 2.41-1.59 (sets: 5.57-4.19)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 80.21%
      Most likely place: 2nd (34.43%)

HerO
      Expected score: 2.13-1.87 (sets: 5.15-4.66)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 70.25%
      Most likely place: 3rd (28.85%)

DongRaeGu
      Expected score: 1.26-2.74 (sets: 3.61-6.15)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 30.74%
      Most likely place: 5th (41.34%)

Mvp
      Expected score: 1.19-2.81 (sets: 3.43-6.23)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 26.02%
      Most likely place: 5th (40.75%)

details, data source, code

Detailed placement probabilities

                     5th      4th      3rd      2nd      1st
           Mvp:   40.75%   33.23%   16.13%    7.39%    2.51%
     DongRaeGu:   41.34%   27.92%   18.26%    9.18%    3.30%
          HerO:    9.86%   19.89%   28.85%   23.92%   17.48%
       Leenock:    6.33%   13.46%   24.10%   34.43%   21.68%
       PartinG:    1.72%    5.50%   12.67%   25.08%   55.04%

Match score

                     0-4      1-3      2-2      3-1      4-0
           Mvp:   19.67%   47.71%   26.91%    5.37%    0.34%
     DongRaeGu:   19.48%   43.32%   29.23%    7.39%    0.58%
          HerO:    2.31%   22.36%   41.52%   27.73%    6.08%
       Leenock:    1.52%   12.88%   37.36%   39.84%    8.41%
       PartinG:    0.23%    3.67%   20.80%   45.42%   29.88%

Set score

                      -8       -7       -6       -5       -4       -3       -2       -1        0        1        2        3        4        5        6        7        8
           Mvp:    2.45%    6.98%    6.89%    8.71%   16.97%   16.98%   10.29%   10.38%    9.58%    4.94%    2.46%    1.92%    0.97%    0.27%    0.13%    0.07%    0.01%
     DongRaeGu:    2.22%    6.48%    7.03%    8.10%   14.89%   15.61%   10.42%   10.83%   10.54%    5.79%    3.17%    2.73%    1.44%    0.42%    0.21%    0.12%    0.02%
          HerO:    0.14%    0.58%    0.89%    1.62%    5.31%    8.49%    7.94%   10.91%   15.87%   12.69%    9.12%   10.59%    8.00%    3.37%    2.30%    1.74%    0.43%
       Leenock:    0.07%    0.34%    0.60%    1.04%    2.90%    4.86%    5.20%    8.94%   14.16%   12.40%   11.04%   15.23%   11.93%    4.83%    3.12%    2.57%    0.76%
       PartinG:    0.01%    0.04%    0.08%    0.19%    0.62%    1.26%    1.79%    3.50%    7.24%    8.27%    9.02%   15.60%   16.89%   10.25%   10.02%   10.95%    4.28%

On December 17 2012 10:15 Tauscond wrote:


Can anybody tell me where did this nonsense come from?

On December 17 2012 10:14 Maesy wrote:
Is there a free stream for this event? Can't find anything about it on GOM website.

On December 17 2012 10:16 opterown wrote:

it's in the post, read it more carefully

On December 17 2012 10:11 decado90 wrote:
Don't be surprised if Mvp performs poorly. He's simply not the God people make him out to be. He used to be, but that Mvp is long gone.

People look at results instead of gameplay. Last place most likely outcome.

On December 17 2012 10:39 InoyouS2 wrote:
I appreciate TheBB's statistics and such, but after seeing his website and ranking system I simply don't take them seriously, no offence intended.