On December 14 2012 23:37 TheBB wrote:
Blizzard Cup Group A

PartinG
      Expected score: 3.01-0.99 (sets: 6.57-3.09)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 92.78%
      Most likely place: 1st (55.04%)

Leenock
      Expected score: 2.41-1.59 (sets: 5.57-4.19)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 80.21%
      Most likely place: 2nd (34.43%)

HerO
      Expected score: 2.13-1.87 (sets: 5.15-4.66)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 70.25%
      Most likely place: 3rd (28.85%)

DongRaeGu
      Expected score: 1.26-2.74 (sets: 3.61-6.15)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 30.74%
      Most likely place: 5th (41.34%)

Mvp
      Expected score: 1.19-2.81 (sets: 3.43-6.23)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 26.02%
      Most likely place: 5th (40.75%)

details, data source, code

Detailed placement probabilities

                     5th      4th      3rd      2nd      1st
           Mvp:   40.75%   33.23%   16.13%    7.39%    2.51%
     DongRaeGu:   41.34%   27.92%   18.26%    9.18%    3.30%
          HerO:    9.86%   19.89%   28.85%   23.92%   17.48%
       Leenock:    6.33%   13.46%   24.10%   34.43%   21.68%
       PartinG:    1.72%    5.50%   12.67%   25.08%   55.04%

Match score

                     0-4      1-3      2-2      3-1      4-0
           Mvp:   19.67%   47.71%   26.91%    5.37%    0.34%
     DongRaeGu:   19.48%   43.32%   29.23%    7.39%    0.58%
          HerO:    2.31%   22.36%   41.52%   27.73%    6.08%
       Leenock:    1.52%   12.88%   37.36%   39.84%    8.41%
       PartinG:    0.23%    3.67%   20.80%   45.42%   29.88%

Set score

                      -8       -7       -6       -5       -4       -3       -2       -1        0        1        2        3        4        5        6        7        8
           Mvp:    2.45%    6.98%    6.89%    8.71%   16.97%   16.98%   10.29%   10.38%    9.58%    4.94%    2.46%    1.92%    0.97%    0.27%    0.13%    0.07%    0.01%
     DongRaeGu:    2.22%    6.48%    7.03%    8.10%   14.89%   15.61%   10.42%   10.83%   10.54%    5.79%    3.17%    2.73%    1.44%    0.42%    0.21%    0.12%    0.02%
          HerO:    0.14%    0.58%    0.89%    1.62%    5.31%    8.49%    7.94%   10.91%   15.87%   12.69%    9.12%   10.59%    8.00%    3.37%    2.30%    1.74%    0.43%
       Leenock:    0.07%    0.34%    0.60%    1.04%    2.90%    4.86%    5.20%    8.94%   14.16%   12.40%   11.04%   15.23%   11.93%    4.83%    3.12%    2.57%    0.76%
       PartinG:    0.01%    0.04%    0.08%    0.19%    0.62%    1.26%    1.79%    3.50%    7.24%    8.27%    9.02%   15.60%   16.89%   10.25%   10.02%   10.95%    4.28%

Can anybody tell me where did this nonsense come from?

opterown

Australia54784 Posts

December 17 2012 01:16 GMT

#143

On December 17 2012 10:15 Tauscond wrote:

Show nested quote +

Detailed placement probabilities

                     5th      4th      3rd      2nd      1st
           Mvp:   40.75%   33.23%   16.13%    7.39%    2.51%
     DongRaeGu:   41.34%   27.92%   18.26%    9.18%    3.30%
          HerO:    9.86%   19.89%   28.85%   23.92%   17.48%
       Leenock:    6.33%   13.46%   24.10%   34.43%   21.68%
       PartinG:    1.72%    5.50%   12.67%   25.08%   55.04%

Match score

                     0-4      1-3      2-2      3-1      4-0
           Mvp:   19.67%   47.71%   26.91%    5.37%    0.34%
     DongRaeGu:   19.48%   43.32%   29.23%    7.39%    0.58%
          HerO:    2.31%   22.36%   41.52%   27.73%    6.08%
       Leenock:    1.52%   12.88%   37.36%   39.84%    8.41%
       PartinG:    0.23%    3.67%   20.80%   45.42%   29.88%

Set score

                      -8       -7       -6       -5       -4       -3       -2       -1        0        1        2        3        4        5        6        7        8
           Mvp:    2.45%    6.98%    6.89%    8.71%   16.97%   16.98%   10.29%   10.38%    9.58%    4.94%    2.46%    1.92%    0.97%    0.27%    0.13%    0.07%    0.01%
     DongRaeGu:    2.22%    6.48%    7.03%    8.10%   14.89%   15.61%   10.42%   10.83%   10.54%    5.79%    3.17%    2.73%    1.44%    0.42%    0.21%    0.12%    0.02%
          HerO:    0.14%    0.58%    0.89%    1.62%    5.31%    8.49%    7.94%   10.91%   15.87%   12.69%    9.12%   10.59%    8.00%    3.37%    2.30%    1.74%    0.43%
       Leenock:    0.07%    0.34%    0.60%    1.04%    2.90%    4.86%    5.20%    8.94%   14.16%   12.40%   11.04%   15.23%   11.93%    4.83%    3.12%    2.57%    0.76%
       PartinG:    0.01%    0.04%    0.08%    0.19%    0.62%    1.26%    1.79%    3.50%    7.24%    8.27%    9.02%   15.60%   16.89%   10.25%   10.02%   10.95%    4.28%

Can anybody tell me where did this nonsense come from?

it's in the post, read it more carefully

Tauscond

United States181 Posts

December 17 2012 01:16 GMT

#144

On December 17 2012 10:14 Maesy wrote:
Is there a free stream for this event? Can't find anything about it on GOM website.

There will be a SD free stream as usual, I think

sitromit

7051 Posts

December 17 2012 01:18 GMT

#145

On December 17 2012 10:16 opterown wrote:

Show nested quote +

On December 17 2012 10:15 Tauscond wrote:

Detailed placement probabilities

                     5th      4th      3rd      2nd      1st
           Mvp:   40.75%   33.23%   16.13%    7.39%    2.51%
     DongRaeGu:   41.34%   27.92%   18.26%    9.18%    3.30%
          HerO:    9.86%   19.89%   28.85%   23.92%   17.48%
       Leenock:    6.33%   13.46%   24.10%   34.43%   21.68%
       PartinG:    1.72%    5.50%   12.67%   25.08%   55.04%

Match score

                     0-4      1-3      2-2      3-1      4-0
           Mvp:   19.67%   47.71%   26.91%    5.37%    0.34%
     DongRaeGu:   19.48%   43.32%   29.23%    7.39%    0.58%
          HerO:    2.31%   22.36%   41.52%   27.73%    6.08%
       Leenock:    1.52%   12.88%   37.36%   39.84%    8.41%
       PartinG:    0.23%    3.67%   20.80%   45.42%   29.88%

Set score

                      -8       -7       -6       -5       -4       -3       -2       -1        0        1        2        3        4        5        6        7        8
           Mvp:    2.45%    6.98%    6.89%    8.71%   16.97%   16.98%   10.29%   10.38%    9.58%    4.94%    2.46%    1.92%    0.97%    0.27%    0.13%    0.07%    0.01%
     DongRaeGu:    2.22%    6.48%    7.03%    8.10%   14.89%   15.61%   10.42%   10.83%   10.54%    5.79%    3.17%    2.73%    1.44%    0.42%    0.21%    0.12%    0.02%
          HerO:    0.14%    0.58%    0.89%    1.62%    5.31%    8.49%    7.94%   10.91%   15.87%   12.69%    9.12%   10.59%    8.00%    3.37%    2.30%    1.74%    0.43%
       Leenock:    0.07%    0.34%    0.60%    1.04%    2.90%    4.86%    5.20%    8.94%   14.16%   12.40%   11.04%   15.23%   11.93%    4.83%    3.12%    2.57%    0.76%
       PartinG:    0.01%    0.04%    0.08%    0.19%    0.62%    1.26%    1.79%    3.50%    7.24%    8.27%    9.02%   15.60%   16.89%   10.25%   10.02%   10.95%    4.28%

Can anybody tell me where did this nonsense come from?

it's in the post, read it more carefully

Poor BB getting a lot of heat from Mvp fans. :D

Griffins

United States98 Posts

December 17 2012 01:18 GMT

#146

Gogo MVP!

Finalist last season, then dropping out early and straight then back into code S this season is not "long gone". There are healthy players who are less consistent. I have to admit this format isn't good for him though. Too many opponents, too many games.

UnKooL

Korea (South)1667 Posts

December 17 2012 01:19 GMT

#147

Damn this is gonna be off the hook.

InoyouS2

1005 Posts

December 17 2012 01:39 GMT

#148

I appreciate TheBB's statistics and such, but after seeing his website and ranking system I simply don't take them seriously, no offence intended.

InoyouS2

1005 Posts

December 17 2012 01:42 GMT

#149

On December 17 2012 10:11 decado90 wrote:
Don't be surprised if Mvp performs poorly. He's simply not the God people make him out to be. He used to be, but that Mvp is long gone.

People look at results instead of gameplay. Last place most likely outcome.

Some 'people' don't care about the results or gameplay, we care about the player, and Mvp is probably the best example there is of an inspiring player.

He is already a legend and doesn't need to prove anything to anyone with his results, he's just adding to his legacy... moving on.

Predictions:
1. Leenock
2. PartinG
3. DRG
4. Mvp
5. HerO

Luepert

United States1934 Posts

December 17 2012 01:43 GMT

#150

This is ok guys, MVP does better when he is favored to lose lol.

sitromit

7051 Posts

December 17 2012 01:46 GMT

#151

Mvp's myth is surpassing him. The only time Mvp was unfavored and won was in the finals against Squirtle. He was favored in the other finals he won. He was unfavored against Life, and lost. He was also favored against MMA, and lost.

sinigang

360 Posts

December 17 2012 01:54 GMT

#152

These guys again? TBH SPL is more interesting at the moment.

aintz

Canada5624 Posts

December 17 2012 02:00 GMT

#153

mvp lets do this!!

mclalimace

Canada66 Posts

December 17 2012 02:03 GMT

#154

Can't wait!!

My predictions :
1. Leenock
2. Parting
3. HerO
4. Mvp
5. DRG

lichter

1001 YEARS KESPAJAIL22272 Posts

December 17 2012 02:06 GMT

#155

This format isn't good for Mvp. Way too many games, which will do really poorly for his condition. So I don't expect him to get through unless he can win his first 3 series. The only player I don't like is PartinG so anyone else going through is fine by me.

MCXD

Australia2738 Posts

December 17 2012 02:06 GMT

#156

What are my predictions for this group hm...

1. Leenock
2. PartinG
3. Mvp
4. HerO
5. DongRaeGu

Either way, i'm really excited for all of this.

JohnAdams

United States111 Posts

December 17 2012 02:32 GMT

#157

PartinG 3-1
DRG 3-1
Mvp 3-1
HerO 1-3
Leenock 0-4.
This prediction is probably very far off, but I'll look incredibly awesome if it is accurate.

how2TL

1197 Posts

December 17 2012 02:33 GMT

#158

On December 17 2012 10:39 InoyouS2 wrote:
I appreciate TheBB's statistics and such, but after seeing his website and ranking system I simply don't take them seriously, no offence intended.

You don't have to take them seriously for them to be valid.

bittman

Australia8759 Posts

December 17 2012 02:34 GMT

#159

Will be relying upon you guys for LRs since I'm at work! Thanks in advance whoever is hoping to do that =D