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I dunno man. I don't think you can read too much into stats like these. 8-3 sounds good but he's lost to TheSTC and there are wins against Tree, Nada, and InnateMaster. So it doesn't say much. Also, he seems (imho) to be playing pretty solid but not perfectly crisp lately, e.g. late thirds, sitting out on the map when he shouldn't be etc.
Whereas Keen seems to be macroing perfectly, putting on the right amount of agression, etc. I think its worth remembering things like, in his match against Squirtle on Daybreak, he macroed like a BOSS and just BARELY missed his timings, so that Squirtle could get just the right comp with collosi, templar and archons. Sure - that's Keen's fault - but he's not going to be facing a timebomb in the same way against Byun.
I'm open to be convinced otherwise but in his recent games Keen has looked just so good, and I don't think stats like his <50% v T record is insightful, given that the vast majority of those games were played when he was simply a worse player.
Also how did you get TLPD to display those recent OSL qualifier games, as well as limit it to recent games!?!?!?!? That's epic, don't know how to do that....
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opterown
Australia54784 Posts
On July 04 2012 13:49 Walitgon wrote:I dunno man. I don't think you can read too much into stats like these. 8-3 sounds good but he's lost to TheSTC and there are wins against Tree, Nada, and InnateMaster. So it doesn't say much. Also, he seems (imho) to be playing pretty solid but not perfectly crisp lately, e.g. late thirds, sitting out on the map when he shouldn't be etc. Whereas Keen seems to be macroing perfectly, putting on the right amount of agression, etc. I think its worth remembering things like, in his match against Squirtle on Daybreak, he macroed like a BOSS and just BARELY missed his timings, so that Squirtle could get just the right comp with collosi, templar and archons. Sure - that's Keen's fault - but he's not going to be facing a timebomb in the same way against Byun. I'm open to be convinced otherwise but in his recent games Keen has looked just so good, and I don't think stats like his <50% v T record is insightful, given that the vast majority of those games were played when he was simply a worse player. Also how did you get TLPD to display those recent OSL qualifier games, as well as limit it to recent games!?!?!?!? That's epic, don't know how to do that....
in the dropdown menus, select "any league". also there's a dropdown menu for dates (i selected from 01/01/2012 for this selection).
i actually think squirtle steamrolled keen on daybreak but lategame is difficult as expected. byun also rolled nada pretty hard haha and beating ryung is no easy feat (ryung playing quite well of late). a loss to thestc is nothing to be ashamed of, he's good.
i'm sure keen-byun is going to be a nice series =]
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On July 04 2012 13:52 opterown wrote:Show nested quote +On July 04 2012 13:49 Walitgon wrote:I dunno man. I don't think you can read too much into stats like these. 8-3 sounds good but he's lost to TheSTC and there are wins against Tree, Nada, and InnateMaster. So it doesn't say much. Also, he seems (imho) to be playing pretty solid but not perfectly crisp lately, e.g. late thirds, sitting out on the map when he shouldn't be etc. Whereas Keen seems to be macroing perfectly, putting on the right amount of agression, etc. I think its worth remembering things like, in his match against Squirtle on Daybreak, he macroed like a BOSS and just BARELY missed his timings, so that Squirtle could get just the right comp with collosi, templar and archons. Sure - that's Keen's fault - but he's not going to be facing a timebomb in the same way against Byun. I'm open to be convinced otherwise but in his recent games Keen has looked just so good, and I don't think stats like his <50% v T record is insightful, given that the vast majority of those games were played when he was simply a worse player. Also how did you get TLPD to display those recent OSL qualifier games, as well as limit it to recent games!?!?!?!? That's epic, don't know how to do that.... in the dropdown menus, select "any league". also there's a dropdown menu for dates (i selected from 01/01/2012 for this selection). i actually think squirtle steamrolled keen on daybreak but lategame is difficult as expected. byun also rolled nada pretty hard haha and beating ryung is no easy feat (ryung playing quite well of late). a loss to thestc is nothing to be ashamed of, he's good. i'm sure keen-byun is going to be a nice series =]
Thanks. The 'any league' thing is something I should have known about earlier. Are showmatches (e.g. the one between Nani and Genius - NASL) recorded in TLPD?
I can't remember the Squirtle game exactly, but in my memory I have Keen up a base from 3-2 onward and Squirtle really struggling to secure his 3rd and 4th, and just barely holding - but I could be wrong.
I think Nada has had his day (after all, he's retired) and beating him is not as impressive as it looks on paper. Although Ryung is a TvT specialist and has been playing well, I still don't think he's a premier terran by any means..I mean, he's very good, but he's not godly in any respect...
Well, I agree it will be a good, close series... I guess we'll find out who has more sound reasoning tonight  ^_^
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opterown
Australia54784 Posts
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I'll be asleep, but here's hoping Keen and Byun advance.
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Byun and Keen so handsome ^^
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United States33454 Posts
Unless very certain, always pick one player from each side of the bracket D:
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i really really hope Naniwa takes this!
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On July 04 2012 14:34 Waxangel wrote:
Unless very certain, always pick one player from each side of the bracket D:
That's how to liquibet basically.
GSL 2012 S3 Ro32 - 0/8 people from same side of the bracket advanced
GSL 2012 S2 Ro32 - 1/8 people from same side of the bracket advanced
GSL 2012 S2 Ro16 - 1/4 people from same side of the bracket advanced
I could do all of them, but it always looks like this basically.
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I need some monster so I can stay up and watch these games
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What do you mean by each side of the bracket?
Do you mean that I should pick one of Nani/Genius and one of Keen/Byun?
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On July 04 2012 14:50 Walitgon wrote:
What do you mean by each side of the bracket?
Do you mean that I should pick one of Nani/Genius and one of Keen/Byun?
Yep. You must choose.
It's hard, I know. I can't choose =S
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gogo  keen
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Lets pray hard we do not see any 2 rax marines shenanigans.
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i cant wait to see naniwa lose xD
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On July 04 2012 14:50 Walitgon wrote:
What do you mean by each side of the bracket?
Do you mean that I should pick one of Nani/Genius and one of Keen/Byun?
Better chance you will get your liquibets right. If you pick for example, Naniwa and Genius, one of your players is certain to be sent to the losers round no matter what. I don't know the exact probabilities of this (and this is all assuming that there are no overwhelming favorites, which could apply to this group), but you are more likely to have 2 players advance from opposite sides of the "bracket", than both from one side.
Both starting matches could go either way, and honestly nearly all matches in this group are pretty even I feel, so if you were to randomly pick 2, you get a higher probability of getting both right if the players are on opposite sides.
Of course, this strategy is only good if you are not familiar with the players, or if the result of the matches doesn't heavily favor one player. For example, if you had a group with MVP vs DRG and 2 mid-level foreigners duking it out on the other side, you should still pick MVP, DRG, since they both heavily outclass the opposition, even though one of them will go to the loser's match.
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On July 04 2012 15:21 Bagration wrote:Show nested quote +On July 04 2012 14:50 Walitgon wrote:
What do you mean by each side of the bracket?
Do you mean that I should pick one of Nani/Genius and one of Keen/Byun? Better chance you will get your liquibets right. If you pick for example, Naniwa and Genius, one of your players is certain to be sent to the losers round no matter what. I don't know the exact probabilities of this (and this is all assuming that there are no overwhelming favorites, which could apply to this group), but you are more likely to have 2 players advance from opposite sides of the "bracket", than both from one side. Both starting matches could go either way, and honestly nearly all matches in this group are pretty even I feel, so if you were to randomly pick 2, you get a higher probability of getting both right if the players are on opposite sides. Of course, this strategy is only good if you are not familiar with the players, or if the result of the matches doesn't heavily favor one player. For example, if you had a group with MVP vs DRG and 2 mid-level foreigners duking it out on the other side, you should still pick MVP, DRG, since they both heavily outclass the opposition, even though one of them will go to the loser's match.
Wow so BM to foreigners man, so BM. ^_^
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I'm rooting for Naniwa SO much right now
Like, for some reason, I'm SUPER excited to watch him play tonight :D
nerd-pride for my foreigners protoss <3
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NA NI WA _ - ` ` - _ \O/ NA NI WA _ - ` ` - _ \O/ NA NI WA _ - ` ` - _ \O/ NA NI WA _ - ` ` - _ \O/ NA NI WA _ - ` ` - _ \O/ NA NI WA _ - ` ` - _ \O/ NA NI WA _ - ` ` - _ \O/ NA NI WA _ - ` ` - _ \O/ NA NI WA _ - ` ` - _ \O/ NA NI WA _ - ` ` - _ \O/ NA NI WA _ - ` ` - _ \O/ NA NI WA _ - ` ` - _ \O/ NA NI WA _ - ` ` - _ \O/ NA NI WA
He is the light of the world !~
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EPT
