EPTWho will win the TSL? - Page 3
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On February 18 2010 18:11 Ash wrote: If Sen gets past Mondragon then he will win it. Otherwise, Nony will. Yeah I think sen can take nony, but it would definitely be a great series if they meet. | ||
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Azarkon
United States21060 Posts
As for Nony, assuming he beats JF, he has a decent chance because his PvZ is quite good. Unfortunately for Nony, both Mondragon and Sen are very good at ZvP, so it's not going to be easy by any means. Mondragon vs. Sen is hard to call. Both have good ZvZ, and Sen proved that he has enough game sense to beat Ret. Normally that'd make him my favorite, but Mondragon has shown that he's in top shape, so it's a toss-up. Let's assign some numbers to it. Nony vs. JF: 60% Nony, 40% JF JF vs. Sen/Mondragon: JF 40%, Sen/Mondragon 60% Mondragon vs. Sen: 50% Mondragon, 50% Sen Nony vs. Mondragon/Sen: 50% Nony, 50% Mondragon/Sen Chance of Nony winning: 0.6 * 0.5 = 0.3 = 30% Chance of Mondragon winning: 0.5 * (0.6 * 0.5 + 0.4 * 0.6) = 27% Chance of Sen winning: 0.5 * (0.6 * 0.5 + 0.4 * 0.6) = 27% Chance of JF winning: 0.4 * 0.4 = 16% As you can see, Nony is the favorite under these assumptions. | ||
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da_head
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