The CJ Entus Shirt Lottery Drawing will take place tomorrow at 12:00 KST. That's September 10th 12 Noon Korean Time / Forum Time, or 11PM September 9th Eastern Standard Time.
We will be announcing all the winners at that time and also telling them how to pay and where to send their shipping information.
You can see your chances of getting a shirt here:
Remember, everyone had three entries, so your overall chance to get a shirt is slightly less than adding up all three categories you entered. Some of your chances are quite good. For instance, if you entered Europe WS / BS / BM, your chances are over 24%(roughly 1/4) to get a shirt.
On September 09 2008 08:50 Hot_Bid wrote: Remember, everyone had three entries, so to find your overall chance to get a shirt, add up all three categories you entered.
Just want to point out that this isn't how probability works. Consider: I'm going to draw a card from a deck and flip a coin. You win if I draw a red card (50%) or if I get heads (50%) or if I do both. You do not have a 100% chance to win. (Especially clear: I also roll a die, and you will also win if I roll a 1, 2, or 3. You do not have a 150% chance to win.) The chance of winning at least one shirt if you picked European WS BS BM is about 22.6%.
On September 09 2008 08:50 Hot_Bid wrote: Remember, everyone had three entries, so to find your overall chance to get a shirt, add up all three categories you entered.
Just want to point out that this isn't how probability works. Consider: I'm going to draw a card from a deck and flip a coin. You win if I draw a red card (50%) or if I get heads (50%) or if I do both. You do not have a 100% chance to win. (Especially clear: I also roll a die, and you will also win if I roll a 1, 2, or 3. You do not have a 150% chance to win.) The chance of winning at least one shirt if you picked European WS BS BM is about 22.6%.
Actually, the chance of winning no shirts for euro WS BS BM is
On September 09 2008 08:50 Hot_Bid wrote: Remember, everyone had three entries, so to find your overall chance to get a shirt, add up all three categories you entered.
Just want to point out that this isn't how probability works. Consider: I'm going to draw a card from a deck and flip a coin. You win if I draw a red card (50%) or if I get heads (50%) or if I do both. You do not have a 100% chance to win. (Especially clear: I also roll a die, and you will also win if I roll a 1, 2, or 3. You do not have a 150% chance to win.) The chance of winning at least one shirt if you picked European WS BS BM is about 22.6%.
Actually, the chance of winning no shirts for euro WS BS BM is
On September 09 2008 08:50 Hot_Bid wrote: Remember, everyone had three entries, so to find your overall chance to get a shirt, add up all three categories you entered.
Just want to point out that this isn't how probability works. Consider: I'm going to draw a card from a deck and flip a coin. You win if I draw a red card (50%) or if I get heads (50%) or if I do both. You do not have a 100% chance to win. (Especially clear: I also roll a die, and you will also win if I roll a 1, 2, or 3. You do not have a 150% chance to win.) The chance of winning at least one shirt if you picked European WS BS BM is about 22.6%.
It's actually 24.22%.
Makes me wish I had gone with 2 small entries, even though my chest measures 100cm. It would still look nice in my closet even if it didn't stretch out at all. I'd have almost double my ~13% odds that I got from M/M/S.
On September 09 2008 08:50 Hot_Bid wrote: Remember, everyone had three entries, so to find your overall chance to get a shirt, add up all three categories you entered.
Just want to point out that this isn't how probability works. Consider: I'm going to draw a card from a deck and flip a coin. You win if I draw a red card (50%) or if I get heads (50%) or if I do both. You do not have a 100% chance to win. (Especially clear: I also roll a die, and you will also win if I roll a 1, 2, or 3. You do not have a 150% chance to win.) The chance of winning at least one shirt if you picked European WS BS BM is about 22.6%.
It's actually 24.22%.
Makes me wish I had gone with 2 small entries, even though my chest measures 100cm. It would still look nice in my closet even if it didn't stretch out at all. I'd have almost double my ~13% odds that I got from M/M/S.
yeah my bad, i edited it to reflect more accurate math
but since the #s are so small, the chances are pretty similar to if you just add them
On September 09 2008 11:21 Athos wrote: Somebody needs to tell the nice people at CJ that they could make a lot of money by printing more shirts to sell to foreigners.
I actually think there is good reason to make more for us. I can see a reason for them NOT making more for Korea, to keep it as a really rare, hot item that keeps everybody hyped about the team and the company. If everyone at every CJ proleague match was wearing one, they would be pretty lame.
On the other hand, very few people outside of Korea will ever attend a game or be seen on the streets of Korea in one, so even if they made 2000 of them to ship internationally, it wouldn't affect the aspect of the shirts in Korea. Although they won't make a huge profit on such a low priced, low volume item, as long as they aren't making a loss, I think it never hurts to increase your company's exposure overseas, and increasing StarCraft's exposure also helps them. If Starcraft gains international popularity, the teams become more profitable, and their investment in the team is worth more.
So pleaaaaaaaaaaase make more shirts for us, CJ Entus!
On September 09 2008 13:53 Hittegods wrote: This magic eightball told me "Absolutely" when I asked "will I win a cj shirt". Thank you god, allah, buddha, thor and krishna!
On September 09 2008 13:53 Hittegods wrote: This magic eightball told me "Absolutely" when I asked "will I win a cj shirt". Thank you god, allah, buddha, thor and krishna!
You forgot to thank TL.net
This does not bode well for you.
Didn't want risking having anyone think it was rigged by thanking in advance. I promise!
It would be amazing if I won the small black. I'll even settle for the small white since I love CJ so much. I hope I won't be reduced to my 3rd choice though (large black, I think) because that would go to my brother
On September 09 2008 15:16 errol1001 wrote: Calm down on the probabilities... They're doing what HotBid said, which was to add them since they're small and hence close to the true value anyway.
Yep. For two shirts where p1 is probability of one shirt and p2 is probability of second shirt :
probability of win = 1- (1-p1)*(1-p2)
= p1 + p2 - p1*p2
so if p1*p2 << p1 + p2, then you can say probability ~ p1 + p2
For small probabilities this is pretty close. Say the odds are 10% for one shirt and 8% for a second shirt :
If you just added them, you would have gotten 125% - the error is bigger. So long as the odds are small you can guess pretty closely just by adding.
Basically, you take your highest odds and then take a percentage of what's left after that. If what's left is almost 100%, then a small percent of it will be pretty close to a small percent of 100. If my odds of the first shirt are 5% and the second is 5%, then I take the first and say that I have at least a 5% chance of winning. I also have a 5% chance of winning with the 95% left, but 5% of 95% is pretty close to 5% of 100%, so you can just add. If it's 50% for both, then I have 50% chance of win on the first one and a 50% chance of the remaining 50%. Half of half is much less than half of a whole, though, so adding doesn't work, I get 100% instead of the correct 75%.
Being relatively small (~180cm) and thin has its benefits . My chances are pretty high but I never won anything, so I doubt this lottery will be any different .
Another cool idea may be to have a second thread where winners can trade-up before shipping - say person 1 picked BM,WM,BS and ended up with the small but really wanted a medium and someone else picked WS,BS,WM and ended up with WM when they really wanted small, then it may make sense for these two people to want to swap, etc. Same would go for just colour swaps or whatever else.
On September 09 2008 23:02 jgad wrote: Another cool idea may be to have a second thread where winners can trade-up before shipping - say person 1 picked BM,WM,BS and ended up with the small but really wanted a medium and someone else picked WS,BS,WM and ended up with WM when they really wanted small, then it may make sense for these two people to want to swap, etc. Same would go for just colour swaps or whatever else.
On September 10 2008 03:02 Schnake wrote: Man, with IDra being at CJ and over 2000 orders, wouldn't it be possible to get more progamer merchandise? There is definitely a huge demand... T_T
Its not really 2000 orders because people had 3 entries each.
On September 10 2008 09:23 YanGpaN wrote: i'm rubbing my feet on the luck - o - rug. Its funny how we are wanting to win a lottery to BUY a shirt that ADVERTISES for THEM.
On September 10 2008 12:02 ctang wrote: Sweet!! I got one. Thanks TL!
Im pretty sure they stated that it was for North America and Europe only. They're in China, not sure they qualified for this lottery. Right?
I live in Florida, so do not be deceived by what it says on my profile.
stop plz, ur making me emo
How am I making you emo? I didn't get one - just messing around. Waiting these minutes are excruciating for me too (I have GRE exam in 9 hours ) ...so I have to pass time some how!
On September 10 2008 12:02 ctang wrote: Sweet!! I got one. Thanks TL!
Im pretty sure they stated that it was for North America and Europe only. They're in China, not sure they qualified for this lottery. Right?
I live in Florida, so do not be deceived by what it says on my profile.
stop plz, ur making me emo
How am I making you emo? I didn't get one - just messing around. Waiting these minutes are excruciating for me too (I have GRE exam in 9 hours ) ...so I have to pass time some how!
whats more important for you? doing well on GRE or getting the shirt? i pick the lattar.
On September 10 2008 12:52 eyeballball3 wrote: they probably sent pms already and is waiting for the response and if they dont respond they're going to draw out more names
Not likely...someone would've posted something by now.
On September 10 2008 13:16 micronesia wrote: I predict that I will be familiar with 6 of the winners out of 80.
If that's true, then by my math (which is obviously perfect), that gives me like a 74/80 chance of winning! This is cause for celebration and for excitement.
We are in the process of double checking winners to make sure they didn't enter with multiple accounts. If you did, sucks to be you. We already found a few.
On September 10 2008 13:29 Hot_Bid wrote: We are in the process of double checking winners to make sure they didn't enter with multiple accounts. If you did, sucks to be you. We already found a few.
On September 10 2008 13:29 Hot_Bid wrote: We are in the process of double checking winners to make sure they didn't enter with multiple accounts. If you did, sucks to be you. We already found a few.
On September 10 2008 13:29 Hot_Bid wrote: We are in the process of double checking winners to make sure they didn't enter with multiple accounts. If you did, sucks to be you. We already found a few.
I hope this doesn't affect me and Blind. =/
We're being pretty careful in going over the marginal cases. Hence why it's taking so long.
ROFL, that coming out from a physics teacher, i want to be in your class..
Class, as you know, last night was meet the teacher night. I met with...
John stop misbehaving. I'll have you know I was with your mother last night, and we discussed you in great detail.+ Show Spoiler +
During sexy time
Yeah...just wasn't as funny the second time.
There was no second time. They were not related.
The whole mother thing was semi-related.
He was accusing me of repeating the same mechanism. They were both related to mothers, but they were not the same kind of joke. They were completely different.
On September 09 2008 19:01 Roxen000 wrote: How does it work if we selected 'other' as the location? ;o
The "other" people were divided 50-50 between Europe and America, it's random.
My odds are very similar no matter which I got randomized into. The only difference is I'm more likely to get a Medium if I got into America, and Small if I got into Europe.
I know I'd fit both fine, so I just hope I got something. I've got my $30+shipping ready.
On September 10 2008 13:29 Hot_Bid wrote: We are in the process of double checking winners to make sure they didn't enter with multiple accounts. If you did, sucks to be you. We already found a few.
I hope this doesn't affect me aka Blind. =/
Fixed.
People who went to the socal LAN can confirm we're not the same person. That, and the fact that he ordered larges while I ordered smalls. If you are kidding, just ignore this :D
On September 10 2008 13:29 Hot_Bid wrote: We are in the process of double checking winners to make sure they didn't enter with multiple accounts. If you did, sucks to be you. We already found a few.
I hope this doesn't affect me aka Blind. =/
Fixed.
People who went to the socal LAN can confirm we're not the same person. That, and the fact that he ordered larges while I ordered smalls. If you are kidding, just ignore this :D
No I'm serious. I am not ignoring this. I want my money back.
On September 10 2008 13:29 Hot_Bid wrote: We are in the process of double checking winners to make sure they didn't enter with multiple accounts. If you did, sucks to be you. We already found a few.
I hope this doesn't affect me aka Blind. =/
Fixed.
People who went to the socal LAN can confirm we're not the same person. That, and the fact that he ordered larges while I ordered smalls. If you are kidding, just ignore this :D
No I'm serious. I am not ignoring this. I want my money back.
Really? Why would you want your money back? I'd gladly pay and take the shirt.
EPT
![[image loading]](http://www.teamliquid.net/staff/Hot_Bid/saviorxellosit2.jpg)
![[image loading]](http://www.teamliquid.net/staff/Hot_Bid/Lotterystats.png)
![[image loading]](http://img370.imageshack.us/img370/9692/morboya8.gif)
![[image loading]](http://img89.imageshack.us/img89/7886/78201917bd4.png)
i hope i get one 
