Last week we looked at charts that represented a team's total wins by player. It went pretty well, so while the charts were handy it seemed like a good idea to run through the same thing but for losses. Again, this only charts those players with 'enough games' (same as last time, anyone with 5 games in a round -- I'll pretend this is the mystical number that makes them a regular). This time this is actually up to date for the most current numbers, up to the end of the second week.

I tend to write long intros but I imagine most people go straight to the graphs.



As with last time, the results aren't super surprising. I don't think the results of this are as meaningful as the wins chart, because a larger percentage of losses are going to come from players who get a few TV games, lose, then don't get seen again. It might be worthwhile to do this same chart with all games played instead of only regulars.

Its interesting how the representation overall is much more even, especially for ACE where nearly every player has the same amount of losses. Its not particularly surprising that most of the players who had large portions of the wins also have large portions of the losses, but it is worth looking at the ratio between the two. Flash has a huge percentage of wins, and not a huge percentage of losses (shocking! amazing!). Firebathero doesn't have much of the wins, and a giant chunk of the losses.

I hope that looking at charts like this can get us one step closer to more accurately judging a player's ability in relation to the skill of his entire team. It certainly seems like there should be a way to judge a player's overall contribution in wins to the team's complete performance in match wins, I just don't know what it is yet. The pieces that need to be fit together are things like total wins, total losses, with a way of adjusting for how often that player gets fielded and how different the team would be if he wasn't there.

Tune in next week, maybe together we can make some magic happen.

Kal warps in at 7 o'clock as the Yellow Protoss while Sea starts at 11 o'clock as the Red Terran. Both players are not doing well in this matchup lately, and they both want to use this game as the starting point to start another winning streak. Since Calm was defeated by Light in set 1, Kal must win this match or STX will be going in 0-2 into the 3rd set without Calm or Kal.

Kal starts off with a 1 zealot 1 probe pressure, but Sea micros well and only loses 1 marine. Kal builds a Nexus in his natural after making 1 dragoon. Sea does not see this, but also takes his natural while getting the mine upgrade. Since their starting points are far away from each other, neither player is being too aggressive.

Sea, thinking that Kal would take a 3rd expansion due to the starting points, pushes out with 3 tanks, 4 marines, and a few vultures, but Kal was going 2 base arbiter and Sea loses his tanks and vultures without doing much damage. Sea realizes this isn't going to work and builds another command center in his main. Kal sees everything Sea is doing with his observer.



Sea focuses on his defense with tanks and mines, and Kal makes a shuttle and 4 zealots to break Sea's defense. Kal drops zealots on top of Sea's tanks while expanding, but Sea's tank and mine placement scare away Kal's units. Kal takes the island expansion while controlling the center with his dragoons and observers.

Sea moves up towards the center to take the 12 o'clock expansion, and Kal uses this chance to recall. Kal manages to kill both armories before Sea manages to kill off Kal's recalled army. While Sea's units are in his main, Kal pushes through the center, and Sea manages to hold with 3 tanks left. Kal's 6 o'clock is now running, and both players have a very good economy. Kal drops 4 zealots at 9 o'clock to kill off the turrets that Sea was preparing, and recalls 12 o'clock at the same time. The units manage to kill off the command center before dying.

Kal tries to take 7 o'clock expansion, and Sea, knowing he has to do something, moves down towards 6 o'clock. Kal uses a stasis, freezing almost 10 units with one stasis, and takes out Sea's army at the center. However, Sea's reinforcements come and drive Kal's units back before he can kill off the stasised units. Sea leaves enough units to kill off all the probes at 6 o'clock and moves back to a more safe position.



Sea is now in complete control of the map. Sea also sends some vultures and kills off all the probes at 7 o'clock, and Kal's harassment gets blocked by turrets. However, he manages to recall 1 o'clock mineral expansion and kill the command center. Sea responds by pushing to Kal's natural, but a bad siege timing makes Sea lose all of his units there.



Kal takes the 1 o'clock natural expansion and the main expansion to try to catch up economically. He tries another attack at 12 o'clock, but it fails. Both players are losing units left and right carelessly, and their resources are running out. Sea pushes towards 1 o'clock, knowing that if Kal takes both expansions there, he will be behind economically. Kal recalls at 1 o'clock natural expansion to defend, but all his units are EMP'ed as they are warped in.

Kal knows he is ahead economically, and just needs to prevent 11 o'clock from getting killed. He only pushes out far enough so his nexus is not being hit by the tanks. When Sea uses all his force to attack 11 o'clock, Kal decides to give them up and attack 12 o'clock instead. Sea takes 7 o'clock natural expansion, but his 12 o'clock expansion falls. Kal recalls units to his 1 o'clock main expansion to protect it.

Kal brings a few dragoons to kill Sea's 11 o'clock mineral expansion, and recalls once again 3 zealots to 1 o'clock main to kill off the last tank and two vultures. As all of this is happening, Sea kills all of Kal's probes at 6 o'clock. Now both players are down to 1 mining expansion, Kal with his 1 o'clock main, and Sea with the 7 o'clock natural. Kal is low on minerals, and makes a lot of archons, but they are all killed as they are morphed by vultures. Sea also takes the 9 o'clock island expansion.



Sea drops vultures on the 1 o'clock expansion, and Kal uses stasis to freeze the vultures. Kal drops 2 dark templars and 2 zealots at 9 o'clock, but one tank manages to kill all of the units. Sea now also has the 7 o'clock main expansion, and Kal is now hopelessly behind in both economy and unit count. Kal recalls one archon at 9 o'clock and kills off all the SCV's there, but Sea just attacks 1 o'clock with all the units he built up and finishes the game. Sea comes out as the victor in this very fast paced TvP.

Teamliquid's veteran SuperJongMan takes the lead, riding a wave of good SKT T1 results. Did the trends from last week continue?

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SPOILER: They did not.

• On a roll!
  SKT T1 has won three matches in a row, all of them 3-0. This week CJ Entus and eSTRO suffered loses at the hands of the boys in red. I never though I would write this, but: after a disappointing performance last round it seems finally T1 Zergs have some support.
  Fantasy won both his games this week, and so did BeSt. T1 is currently the team with most points (18) and no other team comes close in trade value.
  
  Similar to T1, MBCGame HERO went 3-0 this week. Wins by Lightx2, HyuNx2, Sea and By.han. After last round's results that quite a change. HyuN is currently on a 3 win streak.
  
  
  
• Yes we KHAN!
  Something similar happened with Samsung. They have been trying new players and it seems to be working so far. One of them beat EffOrt and sent him on a two game losing streak. You hear that? It's the sound of 600 teams collapsing at the hands of Juni.
  
  
  
• Trading is a useful talent toi have
  EffOrt: Last week 13 points, this week 0.
  HiyA: Last week 8 points, this week 0.
  Snow: Last week 8 points, this week 0.
  
  Wowie you've got to let me know, should I trade or should I not? To be honest, at this point, I have no idea.
  
  As if it weren't hard to predict results already, this week was pretty much the opposite of last week. Lots of FPL teams climbing over 1200 spots. Feels like getting 13 in blackjack, except that even with tools like TLPD you still lose. Damn you FPL!
  
  
  
• Face the ace
  Flash is 2-2, but 0-2 in ace matches, and KT is 0-2 as a direct consequence. This week it was another terran, RuBy who stopped the ultimate weapon, taking the win for Air Force ACE. Flash is not performing according to his price and over 400 people own him. Even if they wanted to trade him, I bet he's the captain on every team!
  
  Kal managed to win one of his ace matches, but that only makes him 1-4 this round (1-1 in ace matches). Considering he was 10-5 (4-0) last round, owners must be disappointed. Calm isn't playing that good either, going 1-2.
  
  Right now KT ($6) and STX ($6) are only 1 point above ACE ($-1).

Are you even more confused about your trades right now? No need to thank me!

See you all next week

This past week has made me slightly sad (FPL), and slightly perplexed. As such, the theme for next week's previews will be "confusion."


And here I thought I was at least decent at predicting trends and winners! So many unexpected 3-0s and a few 3-2s that went the wrong way... eh, let's look at this week's matches.




KHAN really confuses me. Along with ACE, they are R4's whipping boy. Then they lose their R5 W1 match in spectacular fashion, with three of their Protoss going down to three SKT zergs (though I like Hyuk). Then they turn around and summarily molest CJ Entus 3-0 in the following week, and edge out eSTRO in the Ace match as well. Do I see a resurgence for KHAN? I'm not sure yet, since the performances of the two Dragons, JangBi and Stork, is still floppy--just look at MST and OSL offline preliminary results. I have this off-and-on relationship with Stars, but overall I still think they're stronger than KHAN and should be able to win. Plus, ZvP imba.

WeMade FOX vs

KT Rolster

Do I believe KT can take it to Ace? Yes. Stats and Violet can PvT, and fOrGG is still around. Do I still believe Flash is the best TvT player in the world? Yes. Do I believe FOX can 3-1 KT? Also yes. So many options for this match, which is what makes it exciting. However, FOX is a damn strong team, and they have a couple solid choices for Ace--RorO to rape anti-teams, BaBy because he's BaBy, and potentially anybody else with a snipe build (I'm hoping Midas!). True, KT can sent Stats or fOrGG since it's been proven that Flash can be sniped, so this Terran-infested (ilu CSheep) match will come down to whichever team makes the better decisions.

Hwaseung OZ vs

STX SouL

I'm not putting this here because I think it's going to be a close match. This is only listed simply because I want to say...

Suck it, Killer.


I feel like this could be a very interesting match. Really can TvT and TvP very well, and against MBC's Sea, Light, Han, and Jaehoon I'd give him a very solid shot of winning. Action, as well, can ZvT like a boss. Once again, this comes down to who makes the better decisions--and it should be easier for Ha, since he has a deeper lineup. Of course, let's hope he doesn't make bad Ace decisions like he did in R4. Are you kidding me? IrOn? Sucky zerg whose name I don't remember because he is so sucky? I think you get my point. Oh, that's right, Peace.

Hwaseung OZ vs

WeMade FOX

Suck it, Killer.

STX SouL vs

KT Rolster

#1 versus #2 go go go. Can STX even overtake KT at this point for the number 1 spot? I'm not sure. Ace match! Flash vs Kal, where Kal is doomed to come very close but fail again, go go go! Ironically, as IntoTheWow has pointed out above, these two Aces have not been performing well. Perhaps we'll be seeing fOrGG vs Calm, which I think would involve some sexy timing pushes and CSheep rage. Actually, just for the rage I'd love to see that happen.

Ace players and their games don't seem very relevant in a week where six matches ended in 3-0, but what can I say, ladies and gentlemen? Those are the vagaries of professional Starcraft. Let this be a way to reminisce about close-fought matches that went down to the wire, instead of dwelling on the beatings that we've witnessed in the past few days.

Aces -- star players who get to test their mettle against one another outside of the starleagues, who can swoop in to save their team by playing a second time in a match. Okay boys, I see that I'm needed once more, says the ace, and after swiping the dust from his shoulder he steps inside the booth, ready to settle the dispute once and for all in a climactic duel with the opposing ace, backed by the cheers of fans and the lustful cries of schoolgirls while his coach and teammates look on trustingly. In an ace game, every siege tank volley booms more loudly, every arc of energy in a psi storm gleams more brightly, and every zergling is a hero.



That's how it works in theory. In practice, beyond the expected close encounters of the beastly kind between star players, the ace games have encompassed a broad range of players: snipers with their prepared builds, matchup specialists, promising players undergoing tryouts, a variety of players to complement or replace their respective aces -- ill-suited for the occasion or temporarily under the weather -- and a few inexplicable choices thrown in from left field to further deprive fans of that hot, dripping star power as they cry out in befuddled rage: "Jaehoon? Why, why?"

With all these other progamers accounted for, the total number of players who have had the privilege of being their team's ace in a match is 57. That doesn't look like a very exclusive club anymore. But if we count only those who played twice, that number drops to 32, and it dwindles to 14 if we include only the regular aces who played at least five times in the fifth set.

Before we observe these aces in more detail, there's one important thing to mention. Although a team cannot hope to be truly successful without a competent ace, ace players and ace games aren't necessarily indicative of a team's success or lack thereof. After all, one could imagine a team that won every match 3-0 or 3-1 and thus never needed to send out an ace. Conversely, a team losing every bout 0-3 or 1-3 could also dispense with an ace. That being said, the truth of the matter is that no team achieves such feats. A bad team will always be better off if it does have at least one solid player that it occasionally manages to place in a deciding ace game, while a good team will acquire that added value in the clutch that separates the contenders from the champions.

One team that does support the relevance of the ace is STX SouL. Another team may call itself Ace, but these boys are the real deal. The outfit has seen the most matches going to the fifth set (19) and it has the best ace record (13-6). That's the kind of performance that got them into second place, and this mastery of high-stake situations, this dominion over the fifth set will hopefully help them disprove their reputation of choking in the playoffs. On the other hand, the two teams with the next best records illustrate the limits of the ace: Hwaseung OZ has a 10-5 ace record, almost entirely thanks to Jaedong; KT Rolster has a 10-6 record. Yet the two teams are nowhere near each other in the rankings, with KT capering in the lead while OZ is desperately fighting for a playoff spot that's looking more and more inaccessible -- a good ace player can only do so much for his team.

Undisputed Aces
Jaedong, Leta, Flash
An undisputed ace is a top player and the star of his team -- he's the obvious choice for the fifth set, and generally for good reason. Speaking of reasons, he's often one of the main reasons, if not the only reason why fans root for the team he's on, though this can lead to tensions between those fans who are solely cheering for their player and those who are supporting the entire team and its legacy. The team will be accused of being a one-man team, and this badmouthing, which the fans indulge in as much as the onlookers and haters, reveals that an undisputed ace isn't entirely a good thing -- he's undisputed because he's very good, but also because there's no other solid player on the team.

Jaedong is the best ace player in Proleague and currently undefeated, with an 8-0 record. No team has dared send a Protoss against him, instead he's been targeted with ZvZ: he beat Effort once, and Roro and Zero twice (his second game against Roro is quite notable). Leta and fantasy were his Terran victims. Leta, living up to his reputation as a Proleague beast, is the third best ace, having gone 6-3, with losses to Jaedong and Protoss. A testimony to his improving TvP, in his last game he defeated free. Flash comes in fifth, with a 6-4 record. He remained undefeated during most of the season, defeating Sea, Stork and Calm among others, but more recently opposing players had his number and he's on a three-game losing streak, with losses to Snow, Hiya and Ruby. Luckily for his team, he's the least "undisputed" of the three players in this category, as the rest of KT has a heftier presence in ace games than OZ or SPARKYZ.



Dual Aces
Kal, Calm, Sea, Hyun, Stork, great
Yes, you read that right, Sea was competing with Hyun for ace appearances. Kal and Calm are more understandable, as they're the two heads of STX. Calm had a stronger ace presence early in the season, but his lackluster performance (he's 3-4 overall, all three wins in ZvZ) has led to the emergence of Kal, now the second best ace in Proleague with a 7-1 record. Six of these games were played in rounds four and five, where he defeated Nada, free, Hogil, great and Horang2.

Though one might expect otherwise, Hyun has a solid ace record, having gone 3-1, against Sea's 4-1 record. The main difference between the two is that Hyun played all his ace games in the first and second rounds. Since then he's clearly not even considered for the fifth set anymore -- MBC sent out not only Sea but a string of one-time aces in the fourth round. With Hyun out of the picture and the failure of those other picks, Sea will probably become the undisputed ace, to the fans' utmost satisfaction.

Aces with Backup
Effort, Really
Effort's eight ace appearances and 5-3 record combined with the fact that no other CJ player has more than one ace game should make him an undisputed ace, but his mid-season slump and CJ's depth prevent that. He also fits in this category because aces with backup need that backup due a matchup weakness -- in Effort's case, his ZvT. A matchup that he avoided as CJ fielded other players to deal with strong Terran teams: Skyhigh versus MBC, Movie versus SPARYKYZ and Snow versus KT.

Really has an average ace record of 4-4, with all but one game being mirror matchups. His worsening performance in Round Four (1-3) and poor TvZ have led to the emergence of Action, who is unfortunately one of the worst aces in Proleague, with a 1-3 record. In eSTRO's match against OZ, the expected Zerg turned out to be Hiya, while Action's average ZvZ recently failed against great.

Bad Aces
Zero, Ruby
Some ace players are their team's obvious choice to be sent out, yet they're still bad. Zero is the second worst ace in Proleague, with a dismal 3-7 record that stems from a combination of his choking tendencies and his poor ZvZ. Six of these ace games were in his mirror matchup, and he won only two, against Hyun and hyvaa. When the second best ace choice on your team is free, a Protoss and another bad ace player (1-4), that means your ass is on duty against OZ. This sad state of affairs explains why Zero has faced Jaedong twice in the fifth set, further sinking his record while padding the Dong's. The only hope for Stars may be Kwanro, who has only played two ace games over the season.

As the best player on Air Force ACE and arguably the only one with a legitimately good matchup, Ruby is the most logical choice for the fifth set when ACE manages to reach that point in a match. That doesn't change the fact that he's playing for the Air Force, so being the best on his team hasn't prevented him from building up a dismal 2-5 record. As his team has such a hard time winning any games at all, reaching the ace game in a match is a tantalizing prospect by itself, and Ruby's morale must be shattered with every loss in that position. Let's hope his recent victory over Flash boosts his confidence enough to allow ACE to win more than two matches in one round.

Inexplicable Aces
Roro, Killer
I won't beat around the bush: Roro is the worst ace in the proscene, with an abysmal 1-6 record. He's a bad ace like those discussed above, but he merits a separate category. Although he's a solid player overall, his ace record speaks for itself and it shouldn't be difficult for the Wemade coaching staff to find more suitable players for the fifth set, on a team with a hot Baby and a resurgent Midas. To make matters worse, in the face of all common sense and decency, Roro keeps getting sent out. If his coaches had spammed Roro early in the season, before realizing their huge mistake and quickly switching gears, we could understand and even empathize. But Roro is still out there playing ace games, and still losing them.

While Killer has a much more modest 0-3 record, he's still included in this category because of his utter redundancy with Jaedong. Why send a terribly mediocre Zerg when you have the best Zerg in the world sitting right there on the bench beside you? Sending out someone else besides Jaedong makes sense if that other player isn't a Zerg and the coach expects an unfavorable matchup -- fielding Hiya paid off as he was able to defeat Flash in the most recent KT versus OZ match (hopefully this takes Killer entirely out of the equation). Why Killer? At first glance, it seems like a harmless mistake, but consider this: if Jaedong had been sent out in those three ace games and won, Hwaseung OZ would occupy one of the playoff spots.