On May 25 2009 13:01 crate wrote:I know some of you are not going to read this whole thing. I would ask that you do, but if you must, skip to my conclusions part for my thoughts on Shikyo. This post should be far better organized than most of my previous huge posts though, since I actually had an organization scheme this time  I have spent some pretty serious time examining Shikyo's behavior. I have broken his posts down into several categories and snipped parts that I did not find particularly meaningful. You are free to do your own analysis if you disagree with mine. SHIKYO AND PLANNING:+ Show Spoiler +Shikyo makes some campaign promises: + Show Spoiler +Shikyo wrote:
That's basically how I'm planning on using the day 1's clues; As a support for suspicious people, and also as a support for future clues. In the case there is absolutely no one suspicious(highly unlikely), I will think about it according to the situation, most likely someone relatively inactive. Shikyo wrote:
I will not fall for stupid bandwagons, and will try to make the town come to it's senses. Shikyo wrote:
I will always follow logic, and will not make too hasty decisions. I will generally vote for a suspicious player who can be connected to clues. Okay. These all make sense to promise the town regardless of alignment. Shikyo's actions since then don't quite live up to his promises though if you ask me. His day 1 lynch of Therapy makes sense period; Therapy was inactive, he hardly defended himself, we had no real solid clues. He gets offed flips green. Too bad. On day 2, there was (as everyone saw) a pretty nice train voting for Jayme. I judge that it was well and truly on its way to being an easy bandwagon vote at about May 22 2009 03:02 (at that time, there were six votes for Jayme, and zero for any other candidate). Shikyo does not do much to "make the town come to its senses" in my judgment: + Show Spoiler +Shikyo is around at 4:57 and at 7:30 (he posts at those times). By 7:30, there was one additional vote for Jayme. Shikyo posts this at 7:30: Shikyo wrote:
I'm not saying that Jayme is innocent. I'm just saying that maybe you shouldn't bandwagon for him so pointlessly, and maybe think about it for a while. The clues aren't as strong as they seem.
That being said, his behavior admittably has been relatively suspicious. Although I still have a bad feeling about all this bandwagoning. Then, On May 22 2009 08:45 Shikyo wrote:
Ok. With that vote, I would like to present another suspect: epicdoom. Reason is obvious, but if you want it, highly suspicious voting and he hasn't posted at all. He provides a suspect. Still no vote. Still no derailment of the vote train. Shikyo's thoughts on epicdoom: Shikyo wrote:
Most likely he's just a stupid mafia. There's no way a townie would act like that. And if one did, I'd want him dead regardless. Furthermore, Shikyo's PM to zeks saying Shikyo thinks zeks is the Godfather was at 5:xx on May 22. Still no vote--Shikyo is the last voter on day 2, and he abstains and votes for double lynch. Shikyo did not live up to his campaign promise about bandwagoning. The simple fact is he didn't vote on day 2, and three votes could do a good deal to at least make people think before voting. I am guilty of this as well; I should not have withdrawn my vote from Raxor. It's possible Shikyo misplayed (like me) and he's town-aligned. SHIKYO AND ACCUSATIONS:+ Show Spoiler +Shikyo has pointed a lot of fingers in this topic. He has cast suspicion on BWdero, Foolishness, The_Master, Jimtudor, epicdoom, motbob, iLoveKTF, and (of course) zeks. Two more and he'll have two full hands. I will leave his role in the zeks accusation for later since that was significantly more fleshed out than the rest. Here are relevant posts: + Show Spoiler [BWdero] +Shikyo wrote:
BWdero has thus far only made one post in this topic. [snip BWdero's post]
This post can basically be considered as just repeating information that already has been said, without adding anything new. So what's so interesting about this post? It is the usage of some powerful words, especially "idiot" and "rubbish". I checked all of BWdero's post from the last 3 games he played in, and indeed, he never used this kind of language, rather, his posts were respective most of the time, although there were sometimes a few sarcastic lines mixed in. He was a townie in all 3 games.
Also, the word "betray" feels slightly strange here. Would a townie use the word "betray" like this? To me, it seems more likely that he would feel like they themselves would be betrayed to use such a word. Which would make me believe he'd be mafia.
Also, there's the issue of him voting for JeeJee, which is what made me initially check him up, after his first post had caught my eye before. He basically only came on and voted. Isn't that strange? Now, I checked his voting history the past 3 games, and he has generally been bandwagoning, as in, voting for the person with the most votes.In one case in the last mafia, there were multiple possible lynchables, where he abstained. In the same mafia, he voted for Qatol for office after 4 people had voted him before him.
In all the lynch votes, he was generally voting for the person who had the most votes. In mafia 5, however, he voted for semioldguy, although BC had more votes at the moment. After that, however, he changed his vote to Pyrruloxia right after 3 people had voted for him.
So in this case, it seems really strange for him to come on just to vote for JeeJee without having really said anything in the thread for a long time. And his language and word choice seem suspicious to me, as well.
What do you guys think about this? JeeJee says he doesn't think the language is a big deal. Shikyo's next post: On May 19 2009 09:09 Shikyo wrote:
His way of talking, albeit odd, wasn't really my main concern. I was just stating what I thought and observed, it's up to you to make out of it what you will. Seems a contradiction to me. The accusation never seemed particularly strong to begin with. Shikyo wrote:
But why have you [Foolishness], always, been so strongly against me? You keep talking about my flaws and suspicious behavior, but basically back that up with me being defensive without pinpointing it more accurately.
...
Now what I'm curious about is if you have ever thought of this scenario: You're a mafia who thinks I am a good mayor candidate, so you try to stop people from voting me and cast suspicion on me, in addition with advocating incorrect play like avoiding lynching mafia. We see here a case of backwards logic in the accusation: if Foolishness is mafia, then his actions make sense. There is also, like I said earlier in the topic, an interpretation of Foolishness's actions and timing up to that point as making him very likely townie. This feels mostly like a retaliatory accusation to me. Similar to an OMGUS vote, except without the vote of course. + Show Spoiler +OMGUS
"Oh, my god, you suck!" This is usually said before a retaliatory vote. An OMGUS vote is poor strategy as it does not use any logic or reasoning to determine the person being voted against is indeed mafia. Mafia members may use OMGUS votes to throw a random vote out without raising suspicion. Town players may use it in frustration, or in lieu of a random vote. Shikyo wrote:
I'd also like to point out that The_Master has been quite inactive as well. His first post was basically a "I will post for the sake of posting" post that added absolutely nothing and was most likely highly ignored. However, that seems slightly more sincere to me, and hence I'm not that suspicious him. It still is something to note, though. Another weak suspicion-raising post. Shikyo wrote:
I'm kind of second-guessing Jimtudor, though. He seems to not have contributed anything much for the town recently, so I hope he'll do so soon. I'm not too convinced that he's mafia, though, although it definitely is possible. Very noncommittal. Comes after others already had suggested Jimmy was suspicious. Shikyo wrote:
I would like to present you with another suspect: motbob.
He basically only posted twice, asking for BWdero's profile picture and ran for Sheriff, and hasn't posted since. In his Sheriff post he promised high activity. Why isn't he being as active as he should be if he wasn't elected? Why did he abstain from voting?
That salesman clue indeed could refer to his quote "Join Teamliquid Whatpulse Team!", and I don't think it's as weak as you would think, because I don't see anything else in anyone else's profiles resembling anything like trying to get something sold. That's the only thing I could connect to him, though. He still seems suspicious, and might be worth considering for tomorrow. Another weak suspicion. I read motbob's inactivity as most probably a townie who didn't want a green role and got bored. It's possible he's red and is hiding in the inactives, but I think this is significantly less likely. The salesman clue may not be meaningless; hard to say. Shikyo wrote:
I find it interesting how epicdoom hasn't posted, and has abstained from voting. Is he just a lazy townie who doesn't want to get modkilled? Shikyo wrote:
Ok. With that vote, I would like to present another suspect: epicdoom. Reason is obvious, but if you want it, highly suspicious voting and he hasn't posted at all. Pointing at yet another inactive. Strange voting? Yes. Weak accusation? Yes. Does Shikyo recognize this? My guess is yes. In these short accusations (for lack of a better word) the main thing I read is that Shikyo is often noncommittal toward people he suspects and that he is quite eager to voice suspicions toward inactives. There were two other targets whom Shikyo has accused in longer posts, iLoveKTF and zeks. + Show Spoiler [iLoveKTF] +Shikyo wrote:So, let's talk about iLoveKTF for a while, shall we? Warning: this is going to be LONG. I've decided to spoiler it in order for the post to not take up 5 screens. But don't you dare to argue with me without having read it all. + Show Spoiler +"I have decided on this before I have received my role. I will be running for office, either one will do, but I prefer to be Mayor." Says he decided on this before receiving his role as an attempt to gain trust. He prefers to be Mayor. Note: In crate's analysis, he came to the conclusion(as did I) that Mayor is more important to MAFIA, Sheriff more important to TOWN. Well, it's not like it's strange for a townie to especially ask for mayor(although I can't think of a reason), is it? So maybe he still has good intentions, let's be positive. The rest of his office consisted of him saying that he played well as a medic in the last game; Nothing about what he'll do this game. After this, he spends a couple of posts adding nothing. Just random commenting about rules and about the day 1 post's style. Note: No attempt at clue analysis. After a little bit of spam, he just is quiet for a while. After this, he tells me he wants the first lynch more than the Sheriff skills. Why might that be? Well, incarcenation is extremely suspicious for mafia to do. If they incarcenate for no reason, they'll be in the meat grinder next. And why would he think that the first lynch is so important, since the town will most likely decide on someone themselves, anyway? Well, he basically tells us to vote for him again. Ok. Now, let's pick out the interesting, suspicious posts that come by next. Oh, he makes a post, where he says that the medic list is the first priority after elections. Sounds reasonable. However, a few posts after that, he makes a fascinating post. Let me quote an interesting part of it. On May 19 2009 10:57 iLoveKTF wrote:I suggest we scratch the medic list and trust on our medic's decision on who he/she will protect for night 1. Medics, we trust in you... Wait, so he suggests us to not have a medic list after all, right after proposing one himself? Especially in a game meant for beginners, when it's likely that they aren't able to properly decide who to protect, and might require some easy reference? And he HAS played before, even well according to himself. So he isn't stupid. His sentence about trusting the medics makes sense, though. If by "we" he means Mafia, that is. Next, I present my medic list, on page 12. It includes Jimtudor and doesn't have iLoveKTF in it. What does iLoveKTF first say about it? First of all, he doesn't mention at all that 5 pages ago he thought that we don't need a medic list. Then, he thinks that Jimtudor shouldn't be on it because he's under suspicion. Under suspicion? Well, people had been discussing if they should rolecheck the people who lose the run for office and Jimtudor was brought up. Note again how iLoveKTF isn't explaining the suspicion at all, just tells him to read the last few pages. He himself has STILL added ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to the game. Repeating others at best. On May 20 2009 12:59 iLoveKTF wrote:
Things to do right now:
1. Finalize the medic list.
2. Medics do your jobs. (I hope those 2 inactives who havent voted arent medics)
3. Wait for day and see who dies and let the finger pointing begin. Now, he's just giving orders (that are common sense), not adding anything. Once again. Ah, now Koopie tells me how iLoveKTF is going to be useful for the town, on page 16. Well that's nice, since until now, he has done absolutely nothing. But that's all been relatively minor. Now, let's examine this post: On May 21 2009 12:42 iLoveKTF wrote:
Oh man. I was expecting jimtudor to be red. He really seemed suspicious because he voted for Shikyo, though it didnt matter cause jeejee wouldve won either way, because Jeejee was suspecting him too. Yeah I, along with those who suspected jimtudor, look like mafia right now. But I think the mafia's plan was to kill jimtudor so that the attention will be pointed towards us and not them. I just hope jimtudor didnt role claim to the elected officials cause if he did, we are semi-fucked. And if he did roleclaim, I hope the other BG didnt. Also, If jimtudor roleclaimed then we would know 1 of Jeejee and Shikyo is red.
Right now, I am very suspicious of Shikyo. My theory is that he would put jimtudor in his medic list so that he wont look suspicious if jimtudor died. And if at any case a medic protected jimtudor, the mafia decided to stack 2 hits on him. Ofcourse this wouldnt be true if a medic had a hit blocked last night.
Damn I really thought Jimtudor was red. Sorry man, RIP. :p Okay, does this make sense to anyone? Why was he really suspicious because he voted for me? Especially since, as he said, it didn't matter. And iLoveKTF really NEVER, EVER said what he exactly thought was suspicious, even before. He just said that he's under suspicion. And then a gigantic apology post, although he did nothing? Who would feel that they need to write a huge post like this in that kind of a situation, where some others had started suspecting him as well(for no reason, may I add)? Oh, but the fun in this post doesn't end there! The mafia's plan was to kill Jimtudor so that the attention would be pointed towards "us" and not "them"? What the hell? Who would come to that conclusion? That would be such a stupid plan. It's a stupid thing to even lynch a suspected person, as I think I've stated before. Why would the town suddenly think that if someone who people thought was mafia was killed... the people who thought he was mafia would be mafia themselves? It makes no sense. They wouldn't kill him off. They would keep casting suspicion and try to get him lynched. His train of thought makes NO sense. It's sad I already established that he's not stupid, since I'm starting to believe that he actually is pretty damn stupid. Unless, of course, he's a mafia trying to think of something that might fool someone. Hey, but we're not done with this post yet! At the end, he suspects that I would put Jimtudor on my medic list so that I wouldn't look suspicious if he died. Ummm what? Hey, iLoveKTF, maybe you didn't know, but medics are actually supposed to protect people on that list. But you seem to have a foolproof plan ready! Let's stack 2 hits on Jimtudor! First of all, those hits are valuable for Mafia. if I was planning on getting him killed that night, I could have easily went with the suspicion and took him off the list. Second, very suspicious of me? It's not like other lists didn't have his name there. And then a ridiculous plan that someone needs to explain to me for it to make any sense. Wow. -_- He's for lynching Jayme, too. I might have to think about this again in the case Jayme is red. But I'm almost sure he'll be green, or even blue(unlikely because of how inactive he is). He's acting like he's adding something to the discussion by bringing up double lynch. Again, this was inevitable and was probably mentioned before. Posts that appear to have content but in fact do not. Let's examine these 2 posts, now. On May 21 2009 14:21 iLoveKTF wrote:
Yeah Im voting to lynch Jayme unless something better comes up. Also, we need to discuss if we are gonna use double lynch for day 3 or not. Imo, yes. Using it after Day3 is wasting too much time. We need as much kills as possible (of course through thorough clue analysis). On May 21 2009 14:23 iLoveKTF wrote:
edit: by "We need as much kills as possible" I mean "We need as many dead mafia as possible". Everyone, think to yourself. Would a townie feel the need to correct something like that? Wasn't it obvious what he meant? To me, the correction looked really unnecessary. But maybe he thought he'd come out wrong. Although, why would a townie need to worry about that? On May 22 2009 12:29 iLoveKTF wrote:
Voted in favor of Double lynch coz fingers have been pointed to alot of people. We'd have many suspects next day.
Abstained from lynching coz I know Jayme is surely gonna get lynched. Currently analyzing some posts/accusations while waiting for Night post. Or so that you wouldn't be connected to voting for him if he turns green? If Jayme's red, it'd be amazing. I just doubt it. Oh, before that post iLoveKTF was talking about his profile thread. Basically another set of empty posts with no content. Based on that, I strongly believe that iLoveKTF is mafia. Clues aren't my speciality, but I think some possible ones have already been suggested. That's long; let's break it down and focus on some of what I think are particularly relevant points. Shikyo wrote:
Wait, so he suggests us to not have a medic list after all, right after proposing one himself? Especially in a game meant for beginners, when it's likely that they aren't able to properly decide who to protect, and might require some easy reference? And he HAS played before, even well according to himself. So he isn't stupid. This is quite possibly entirely true. Proposing one then reneging on the proposal doesn't look good at all. Shikyo wrote:
The mafia's plan was to kill Jimtudor so that the attention would be pointed towards "us" and not "them"? What the hell? Who would come to that conclusion? That would be such a stupid plan. It's a stupid thing to even lynch a suspected person, as I think I've stated before. Why would the town suddenly think that if someone who people thought was mafia was killed... the people who thought he was mafia would be mafia themselves? KTF is using a WIFOM argument here (http://mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=WIFOM). Shikyo misses this. I don't read much into the alignment of either player from it. The mafia gains by leaving Jimmy alive if they can keep discussion focused on him; the mafia loses by leaving Jimmy alive in that he's a decently active poster who might make some solid contributions. I don't read any more into the choice to hit Jim since I don't think there are any other solid conclusions to make. iLoveKTF's reasoning in that post doesn't look particularly solid to me, but this post is not focused on iLoveKTF so I will leave that for another time. Shikyo wrote:
At the end, he suspects that I would put Jimtudor on my medic list so that I wouldn't look suspicious if he died. Ummm what? Anyone who didn't think Jimmy was one of the top six posters on day 1 looks suspicious to me. End of story. Shikyo wrote:
Everyone, think to yourself. Would a townie feel the need to correct something like that? Possibly. You're reading too much in how something is written again instead of looking at what people are saying. I don't read anything in iLoveKTF's vote on day 2 either really. Day 2 voting was just a disaster for the town overall really. Regardless of the alignment of iLoveKTF, this argument doesn't look particularly convincing to me. Shikyo is nitpicking in much of it, misunderstanding in some, and raising valid concerns in some of it. There may be something behind it, but the argument itself is poor. This brings me to zeks. I will not be quoting the entirety of Shikyo's posts. You may look them up yourself if you wish to look for more context than I provide. + Show Spoiler [zeks] +First I will present cases that I think show the circular logic used to reach the conclusion "zeks is Godfather" + Show Spoiler [Circular Logic] +Shikyo wrote:
It seems like in your argument with teks, you do your best to correct unimportant things that really don't matter in the long run, like him using a too powerful tone or whatever, but you really just asked stupid rhetorical questions and actually failed to prove anything. Possibly not circular logic; possibly is. Shikyo wrote:
(about zeks having suggested rolechecking the losers of the election)
Foolishness, that's actually a great point you bring up. Your Shikyo-Is-Mafia obsession aside, that indeed does make sense if zeks is the godfather. If zeks is GF, then he wants to be rolechecked, so since he proposed rolechecking he must be GF. I offered my own interpretation on this action (which also proved to be wrong, but I think that's because zeks played badly); I concluded that zeks was blue, not that he was red. This is especially strange since teks (then later Shikyo) posted suggesting having the losers rolechecked before zeks even made a single post in the topic. Shikyo wrote:
think about this scenario:
Zeks is the godfather, so he's safe from rolechecks. He notices that we're going to check him if he's not elected. He starts posting really late. He knows he has no chance of winning the elections anymore, but he runs for office anyway. Why is that? He was planning on losing the elections all along. Why did he ask for people to vote for him in so many occassions?
He wanted to be considered a prime candidate, someone we indeed should rolecheck after the elections are over, just according to the plan. His DT R/C plans and such all complement this story. This also gives a possible answer to the mysterious, seemingly stupid, hit of Jimtudor as well. He was an obvious third, and he would have been the prime candidate for a DT rolecheck. In fact, he was almost sure to be rolechecked. He'd have been shown as innocent, and the town could have started trusting him.
However, zeks wanted to be the one who people see as innocent, so he killed Jimtudor off. It's likely he even used 2 hits against him because he wanted to be sure to take him out. Now, a DT would R/C him according to the plan, see he's an innocent(although he isn't), and the town would give all of their information to him. However, it was not to be. The bolded sentence alone made me disregard this the first time I read Shikyo's argument. Other things in the argument I wish to discuss: + Show Spoiler [Other stuff] +Shikyo wrote:
In fact, he was the first person to suggest him being lynched. On the second day, zeks said that it'd also be a good thing to lynch Jayme because of the clues etc. I find it slightly suspicious that he never clue analysed thoroughly, only for those people, who in fact turned out to be innocent. If zeks is green, then he might just have legitimately thought Jayme was mafia on day 2 and that Therapy might have been a good suggestion as well. I do not think this is unreasonable. I do not think this implies zeks is red. True, if he is red it also makes sense ... but that's the problem with circular reasoning. This maybe belongs above. Shikyo wrote:
In his DT R/C plan, it doesn't make sense for him to not think that the probability of R/Cing Godfather isn't large enough.
If he's a green or blue, it makes no sense for him to talk about the medic list but then not suggest a list of his own.
If he's a green or blue, his terrible arguments about the reasons behind mafia including Jimtudor on a medic list don't make sense. I simply refute these points. He is simply more risky than you and the latter two ... there wasn't much discussion since the medic lists were all too obvious both nights imo. Shikyo wrote:
Also, if he's green or blue, his defense about minor information makes no sense, instead he should be pointing out where he has been useful for the town and what about his behavior isn't mafia-like. http://mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Burden_of_ProofYes zeks flubbed his defense pretty badly, I won't refute that. Shikyo wrote:
And where do you think the suspicion about him being the godfather would come from? From him suggesting it himself? I'd have found him more suspicious if he hadn't mentioned the possibility. My conclusion here is that Shikyo's argumentation and reasoning are consistently flawed. He is eager to provide suspects but unwilling to commit himself to taking responsibility for the suggestion (note also that the zeks = GF thing was actually presented by teks despite Shikyo having suspicions as early as the middle of Day 2). OTHER POSTS I FOUND INTERESTING: + Show Spoiler [Miscellaneous] +Shikyo wrote:
It definitely is something I would do if I was mafia. I'd point out the unimportant flaws of my opponent's arguments. You seem to be awfully sure about how the mafia would act. Shikyo wrote:
If you really are a townie, why haven't you been contributing anything at all, besides being suspicious about the 2 people we lynched... who were innocent? Shikyo wrote:
It really is unaccurate and it's extremely easy for mafia to point out potential clues for non-mafias. Yet he specifically goes about finding clues the wrong way when looking at zeks. Shikyo wrote:
Maybe you, Koopie, Foolisness and whoever else should now spend a while trying to think of clues pointing to me. You know, it really shouldn't be that hard, since a person dies every time a mafia lynches someone, right? I'm looking forward to reading your suggestions. But behavior analysis is--you yourself said--better. Shikyo wrote:
Was it the second time I was right? [referring to Jayme being green] Was zeks the second time I was right? http://mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=7for7Shikyo wrote:
I love how Foolishness is basically doing nothing in this thread but casting suspicion on me. You pointed more fingers than anyone else. Also, for anyone interested, here are Shikyo's thoughts on what a mafia-made medic list would look like: Shikyo's thoughts on a mafia medic list
Normally, I think it should have a couple of well contributing innocents, and then it should have one or two mafia that still post quite a bit mixed in. And then it would probably lack an important contributer or two so that mafia might have an easier time hitting them. (This is his response to me PMing him). Shikyo is confident that the mafia would act the way he thinks they would and he is also somewhat hypocritical. CONCLUSIONPut it all together. He fails to deliver on his campaign promise as mayor. He is consistently making weak arguments against various players (I find the sheer volume of Shikyo's finger-pointing quite odd) and utilizes faulty logic in his arguments. His day 2 activities ... he says he is wary of the bandwagon voting, yet for some reason during this time he is uncharacteristically silent about his suspicions and refuses to vote until the very end of the voting. There are two possibilities here. One is that Shikyo is simply a terrible player and is handing the mafia this game on a silver platter despite being town-aligned (I'm not going to make the same mistake of overestimating a player like I did with zeks) because he's making me and others look at his poor argumentation and see red. The other is that he's bleeding red and has been since day 1. The largest counterargument I can see is that teks did not take a hit last night (unless Esben also hit someone on night 2, but I do not think he did so) and I think (teks can confirm or deny this) that Shikyo knew teks was vig'ing zeks. On the other hand, perhaps the mafia thought teks would get medic protection on night 2 and didn't bother. It is possible I missed something, but I am confident in this analysis. Further thoughtsI realize this post is huge, so you can easily skip this section--it's musings on how to interpret events if Shikyo is mafia. + Show Spoiler +By the way, the timing of teks's accusation is a big part of why I am convinced he really is a vigi. It makes no sense for a green to post at that time (to me, anyway: you're making yourself a target, the town doesn't gain much from flinging around suspicions at night anyway, and you can give your suspicions to someone else via PM--better yet, multiple someones--and have them post should you actually die). It makes sense for people who have no sense of timing to post then, it makes sense for a vigi to post then, and it makes sense for mafia to fling around suspicions like that in case a vigi bites.
If Shikyo is mafia, we had both of the cases that make sense going on. I'm willing to buy that teks was paranoid and came up with the timing on his own. My guess is teks wouldn't have struck without Shikyo's input to the accusation.
Like I said though, this is just me re-interpreting the events assuming Shikyo is mafia; my case for him actually being red is not predicated on the assumption that he is. I have not seen any clues yet for Shikyo, but that's not going to sway me one bit with this record of his. Shikyo, if you're town-aligned, I'm declaring you mafia's MVP right now. If you are mafia: decently well-played, sir, but you slipped up too much. I will commend you on your actions during night 2; apart from letting teks live (which may or may not have been a mistake) you did excellently.
Okay, let's address this, then!!! I won't concentrate on wether something I did was right or not, I'll just give you my reasoning on why I did / didn't do something. This is all going to be 100% honest and detailed, so I hope you'll be amused.
The lynch of Therapy was a bit hasty and I was hesitant. However, I had to sleep soon and didn't have the time to change to anyone. I was thinking of jayme but didn't get to think it through. The fact that I was a mayor honestly came a bit as a surprise. Pyrr can confirm my hesitation in the post to him after the game.
I absolutely hate reading past posts I've made, they make me absolutely embarrassed wether I was right or not. I actually can't even watch my replays and it hurts my improvement. I guess I'll do it now, though.
At the time I posted the first post about Jayme, I was not sure about him. I actually never was sure of him. The bandwagoning still seemed worrying, and I adviced against bandwagoning. I wanted to wait and see who I could vote for.
Just because you suspect someone you can't be sure about wether he's mafia or not. Epicdoom was suspicious, yes, but I thought that I didn't really have anything much against him. Looking back now, it definitely seems like I should have voted for him. However, I really wasn't still sure about Jayme. He wasn't an absolutely sure innocent. I needed more time, as did everyone else, so I adviced against bandwagoning... I think at that point I should have voted for, say, epicdoom, maybe to try to halt the bandwagon, but I was still hesitant at point.
At the point I voted, and actually even a while before that, I was sure about my vote not mattering. What you do not know, however, was that it was really late, and after I had abstained and shut my computer down, I opened it again, heard some sounds from outside my room, shut it down, then opened it again, and shut it down again. I was planning on changing my vote for iLoveKTF, but in the end I came to the conclusion that it was too late for the bandwagon to be affected, and was kind of curious about Jayme myself. It probably was a mistake to not vote properly. These are the reasons, though.
That was a pretty horrible play by me, I admit. I guess I just wanted to be more sure about something. Then again, I wasn't the only one making a mistake.
I actually take full responsibility about the zeks = godfather thing. I had already found his campaign and such suspicious as well as the DT thing especially. teks actually PMed me about zeks having PMed him, asking for the suspects etc. That actually made me even more suspicious. I actually sometimes have a big problem of admitting when I'm wrong. I was wrong this time, and I think that it indeed was me who was mainly pushing teks into his case against zeks. Although he was the one who presented the case, I had done most of the post history research and had pointed out many possible flaws in his posts. Teks was actually doing that as well.
I think that I also tried to push teks into hitting zeks way too strongly. -_- I regret that as well. I also think that that is actually the main reason why he suspects me at this time. I guess I was over-eager, I don't really have a good explanation, I was just being stupid overall, I guess. :/
I have a feeling that what made my judgement flawed was that I took too personally his subtle accusations about me being mafia. And also many things like how he didn't realize the implication and such. To me, at the moment, it seemed like no one could miss those kinds of things, and that a townie wouldn't play dumb like that. I obviously was wrong about this, again. I failed to consider those things.
I also was being quite childish about crate's argument about my flaws. As said, I sometimes have trouble admitting I'm wrong. Although I think I realize that sometimes the problem is there, I have been trying to take it more into consideration. I think it's getting better. It just sucks how I don't sometimes realize it myself.
Oh, about my campaign. I really expected myself to be able to do what I stated there, and I think I have mostly done it, as well. I made it sound a bit more convincing than it probably should, but there was a reason for that too. I wanted to get at least townie elected to the office so that a mafia couldn't get the spot, and I was certain I could get elected to the office if I really tried. That was the main reason, to make sure I was elected instead of a mafia. Also, to be able to experience being in the office when I have the chance; in the veteran games that kind of a chance is probably not going to come very soon.
The reason why I just accused so many of those people is pretty simple. I felt that if no one else does it, I have to do it. There really wasn't much accusing going on, just the bandwagoning. In fact, there still hasn't been many accusations except for mine. I seriously believe we still don't have the time to just sit around trying to clue analyse and whatnot. Those accusations were more likely bringing people some townies could have missed to the open for further investigations. Giving the townies some directions, someone to begin their investigation from. I still think it was a good idea. Those small accusations were just that, a reason why I found them suspicious. It still was not very strong. Also, I wanted to hear their reaction to being accused and pick something up off that. You could call that fishing.
Oh, WIFOM argument? Hmm interesting.
"Anyone who didn't think Jimmy was one of the top six posters on day 1 looks suspicious to me. End of story." That's true. Which is why I accused iLoveKTF of thinking he was suspicious. But what I found interesting is that iLoveKTF himself did not find Jimtudor one of the top six posters. So why would it be suspicious if others didn't find him as one, either? The judgement I used here was that he shouldn't be the one thinking that. It would make sense hearing it from someone else. I still think iLoveKTF is fishy, but not as fishy as before. We'll see what he'll post next, since he's back already.
Well, I think I went through every single post of his, or actually told the whole story. There obviously would only be a couple of things that would seem really suspicious, the others would just be a part of the storytelling, or might be something suspicious but not be worth that much. I just prefer to go through all the posts instead of looking at a few single posts. Maybe I should have focused on those few strange posts, I just thought that I might as well go ahead and read all of his posts more carefully.
I bolded the sentence because I was excited to have figured out something reasonable. It's not my fault if you disregard it, really. I see that as bad play on your part. If you don't think what I thought of was reasonable, well, I guess that can't be helped. And wanting to be R/C'ed would make sense if zeks was the GF pretending to be blue. He could have been a blue as well, but his actions didn't make enough sense for me to think that. Turns out he was just a green who failed to make sense. If you want to ask about the reasoning behind anything else about zeks, ask on the thread or send a PM.
I'd also like to point out that teks and me actually discussed who would want to present the case against zeks. It seemed like he wanted to do it, and well it was less work for me after reading all the post history, so why not? Just as a side note, if he hadn't presented the case, I would have. We came up with it together. This might contradict what I said earlier about me taking full responsibility. Actually, I think I should only take a bit more than a half. But well, I still would say that it was I and teks together presenting the case; I even complemented his immediately afterwards.
You're right, I hate committing myself to taking responsibility of someone I'm not sure about. However, I was sure about zeks, and was willing to take the responsibility. Sadly, it turns out I was wrong about him.
Well, about my confidence and hypocrisy... read the rest of teamliquid, especially some live report threads and wherever else I post. You can read that that's not just something I do while playing mafia. 
Comments to all the misc posts:
About the first post, yes. If I don't have anything solid with which to prove my opponent's argument wrong, the first thing I would do is to try to direct the attention away from myself by pointing out the small flaws in my opponent's arguments. I still stand by my statement on that, wether you agree or disagree is up to you.
He really only presented clues and suspicion towards those 2 people, and didn't even think of other suspects. I'm not sure about what the smilie face means, I guess it's about me having been wrong about 2 townies as well. Not much I can do to help that, now. I still stand by this post, though.
About zeks and the clues, I even stated that the clues definitely weren't the main point of concern. In fact, the only reason I even thought of that or included that was because zeks had said that I didn't have any clues against him. In fact, I wasn't even the first person to point out the clue in this thread. That was so no fek. I didn't include it in my original argument because I thought it was too weak.
Behavioral analysis indeed is better. That was just a taunt, with which I was merely attempting to annoy you. I didn't really mean that, which might be apparent because of the sarcastic tone. It's not that difficult to see that I was not being serious. However, I still stand by that post's point, as well. There won't be any clues pointing to me.
mafiascum.net/wiki? Yeah, that's nice and all. I'd prefer you to give the arguments in your own words, it's so easy to try to link everything you think that might be suspicious to the wiki, you know? Well, if you didn't see that either, I wasn't really being serious here either... although I don't know what I'm supposed to say, that I can be wrong too? Uhmm I wasn't trying to use that as a reasoning for why I would be right about the others as well, it was more of a "yay I was right" thing. So I believe that the link is unrelated...
About Foolishness, I never accused him of being mafia or anything. So... yeah, this point seems kind of strange.
Also, notice how kind it was of me to give him the supposed mafia medic list although I knew he was going to use it against me?
Shikyo:
O_o You're thinking I might be mafia? ^_^ I think they'd have hit a lot more blues if that was the case =P Well, good luck, but it might be good to dedicate some time to actually figuring out which 2 people we need to lynch. It's pretty important to get at least 1 of them right.
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crate:
I was trying to make sense of your posts about the medic list (during the zeks = GF? debate) and I thought it would help if I knew what you were thinking insofar as mafia-made medic lists go.
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Shikyo:
Normally, I think it should have a couple of well contributing innocents, and then it should have one or two mafia that still post quite a bit mixed in. And then it would probably lack an important contributer or two so that mafia might have an easier time hitting them.
Why are you asking this, if I may ask?
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crate:
I'm going back over your discussion about zeks right now and I'm still a bit lost in the medic list thing.
I have a simple question for you: what do you think a mafia medic list would look like?
Thanks in advance.
Why didn't you include the entire conversation? Also, I'm pretty curious of why you believe this PM supports your claim of me knowing how the mafia thinks and acts, when you specifically requested a mafia medic list. Also, it's impossible to know. That's why I said "normally", because there are too many factors that would alter that list. There was also a lot of uncertainity, "should" "probably" and such, because honestly they could be trying something different. That's just a very basic way of thinking. Did that help you make sense of my posts?
"my case for him actually being red is not predicated on the assumption that he is." Man, I was just going to point out that it was, but then you post this. I guess not, then? T_T Many of the arguments seem to assume that, though.
again, Mafia's MVP? I guess the zeks lynch was one, but do you honestly believe it was such an unreasonable accusation? As I already told you in the PM, I hope you don't devote all of your time on this. I also was wrong in my PM, we need to hit twice today, once might not be enough.
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EPT
