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On May 25 2009 19:55 Shikyo wrote:
...
And town lvp? Hmm that's a bit harsh? I think I was wrong about 2 people, both of whom were acting suspiciously, and the other one didn't even matter since mafia killed her off(which is stupid). On the other hand, I've been suggesting plans etc and doing my best keeping the town somewhat organized. We can miss even this much if we want to, we just really need to be able to hit two mafias today.
...
Just from this bit of text I can tell that Shikyo isn''t mafia, because why would s/he call her/himself stupid? Additionally s/he's using a lot of distance type grammar with regards to the mafia... I don't understand why so many people are voting for him/her.
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Here's another thought... what if a mafia or two voted for Shikyo in order to start a bandwagon as our fellow townies so enjoy doing these past couple votes.
However, I don't agree with Shikyo on the group your votes in an organized way... as that's supporting a bandwagon xD I think if everyone voted for their highest suspect.. we'd get a very clear idea on the mafia pretty quickly.
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On May 26 2009 05:21 SugiuraMidori wrote:
Here's another thought... what if a mafia or two voted for Shikyo in order to start a bandwagon as our fellow townies so enjoy doing these past couple votes.
However, I don't agree with Shikyo on the group your votes in an organized way... as that's supporting a bandwagon xD I think if everyone voted for their highest suspect.. we'd get a very clear idea on the mafia pretty quickly.
To continue this thought.. it would be advantageous for the mafia if they got rid of the sheriff/mayer through lynching as they'd have to kill the other body guard first in order to get to them. The ability of the mafia to start up a bandwagon to get rid of one of the most threatening voters in lynches is also something that is advantageous for them. Stopping someone with three votes would benefit them hugely in the ability to sway the lynch votes to their liking, as Shikyo mentioned they can do.
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On May 26 2009 05:50 SugiuraMidori wrote:Show nested quote +On May 26 2009 05:21 SugiuraMidori wrote:
Here's another thought... what if a mafia or two voted for Shikyo in order to start a bandwagon as our fellow townies so enjoy doing these past couple votes.
However, I don't agree with Shikyo on the group your votes in an organized way... as that's supporting a bandwagon xD I think if everyone voted for their highest suspect.. we'd get a very clear idea on the mafia pretty quickly. To continue this thought.. it would be advantageous for the mafia if they got rid of the sheriff/mayer through lynching as they'd have to kill the other body guard first in order to get to them. The ability of the mafia to start up a bandwagon to get rid of one of the most threatening voters in lynches is also something that is advantageous for them. Stopping someone with three votes would benefit them hugely in the ability to sway the lynch votes to their liking, as Shikyo mentioned they can do.
Unfortunately, the only few people I can match with my clues and those that voted for Shikyo are:
wurm
JeeJee
and the clues I've found for them have been suspect at best.. so I'm unsure just from that who I could define as a definite mafia at this point in time.
I really wish I could be of more help :/
I just know that the following people are innocent to me: crate, Shikyo, teks
Of course I won't include myself as that's for others to judge, not me.
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Sorry for like the billionth post in a row.. I'd love being able to edit to add content.. but oh well.. rules are rules.
Here is an analysis of votes made so far::
I can agree that with the rapid vote from Rayne against KTF he is suspect of mafia origins, however he only made the one vote and it was a rather legit one as we've had KTF in our sights for some time due to his sound pictures in his profile. This meaning that with Rayne's recent? inactivity he only remember's or knows about past mentions from the fellow analyzers.
I of course made votes quickly as I had already suspected the three before the day came and I was only given more clues to suspect these three:: Ra.Xor.2, chaoser, BWdero
Of course, due to the method of Rayne's vote we got a bandwagon hopped onto voting for him, which perhaps is fine since he's been rather inactive as of late I suppose, and is perhaps not helping the town at all, merely hurting us.
Looks like crate was the first to jump onto Shikyo, but I already know crate isn't mafia so that gets us nowhere. The rest, to best of my viewing abilities, looks like they just bandwagoned Shikyo due to being angry with him or some such.
The random votes on clazzi are also suspect, and since choaser is in there perhaps these folks are just being driven by a mafia? Alternatively, they believe KTF to be innocent and are voting against the ones that voted for him (likely).
The random vote for epicdoom is also suspect, probably just a confused mafia (l10f).
Shikyo voting for chaoser makes sense as I also highly suspect him (chaoser) of being red.
The current abstainers could simply be those that don't know who best to vote for and are waiting till the last moment or mafia waiting to sway the vote at the end.
As for the mass of double lynch votes.. that just makes sense if we want to win this against the mafia. The sooner we use the double lynches the (perhaps) better chance we have of getting rid of their KP.
As for me not voting for double lynch.. it isn't needed as we already have it.
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Hmm... this brings JeeJee out as suspect, perhaps he is mafia and wishes us to get rid of the Sheriff and his ability to sway the votes? It would seem that we need to vote for JeeJee as well at this rate.
Such an angry post is very unlike him. I also see that JeeJee likes these bandwagons and wants them to continue...
@JeeJee:: It is rather unlikely that the same thing that happened with Qatol would repeat itself so soon. Once again.. I see nothing in Shikyo's profile that can help align him with any of the kill-clues, and by now we have had eight kills performed by mafia; assuming that at least one set of clues is a double pointer to mafia as all mafia should have at least one clue pointed to them by now (Pidgeon Hole Principle) this makes it unlikely that Shikyo is suspect.
However, looking at your profile, and how you'd hate to see tears of angst in others.. it could match any of the clues as they've all been attacks from behind which makes it easy for you not to have seen their faces and any possible tears. Additionally all those bits about fear.. You're easily more suspect than Shikyo is.
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So have we a better few suspects to vote for, Foolish? If so i would like to know so that I might change one of my votes.. as I am still overly confident on BWdero matching too many of my clue-finds.
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Hmmm.. lovely.. I woke up after and didn't get to change my vote after all.. that's too bad. And yeh.. as pyrr said, there is a chance, however small (40%?), that we can still win this.
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LOL crate and foolish, the love twins.. are hilarious!
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Well that is good news, mafia only got two people.. which helps raise our chances of winning up significantly.
I'll try some clue analysis in the morning.. but for now..
-- the "long blonde hair" made me think of the guy with 'britney spears' in his profile == epicdoom (actually a good number of blondes in that vote image) or l10f.
-- the explosives sound like they're from a reaver.. so that's anyone with a reaver icon (JeeJee) or wurm.
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On May 27 2009 22:35 teks wrote:
That wasn't the point. The point was that he can't be mafia because:
1) Ra.Xor.2 tried to connect him with clues
2) He protected Shikyo when he easily could have bandwagoned him, killing off our green townie
green mayor? ;P
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So it seems tek and JeeJee did a monumental job on that Pawsom=Possum clue match.. so Not much I have to cover there...
How come Foolish is the only one voting for motbob though? I don't know who to believe now.. and I've done nothing but poorly analyze Pyrr's clues from day one (even Qatol and Ver laughed at me I heard)
This makes me wonder if Foolish is DT and did a rolecheck on motbob or something as no one else is believing his statements (and I just generally follow with teks since he has the list).
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On May 28 2009 12:14 Foolishness wrote:
Is this thread dead? There's roughly 2 posts per hour.
I think you've done a good job of scaring off all of the mafia from talking in addition to JeeJee scaring off the town from helping us kill the mafia.
The town needs to be organized again.. why are we lacking our leader Shikyo now.... I tried to PM him for guidance but he has yet to respond.
I don't understand Foolishes voting patterns now.. I know he hates bandwagons, and we've certainly got one going, but shouldn't the town agree on two potential mafia so that we can wrap this up with a win?
I know I've mostly been following how teks votes since that is generally safe since he knows the list, but isn't there also the fact that we still have two people that haven't role claimed? What about them?
teks could you at least give us numbers on how many greens have claimed so we can get an idea of the probability that one of those that haven't role claimed are mafia or not?
We need to be absolutely sure with our vote today or we could be proverbially hanging ourselves.
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On May 29 2009 11:45 Foolishness wrote:
....
What should happen is this:
tonight: town lynches l10f and pawsom: 2 mafia down.
Night: Assume mafia get two kills:
Tomorrow: lynch ydg and phelix
....
Uhm.. Foolish, however much I'd love being able to double lynch tomorrow as well.. we already used them all up (we only get the two).
So.... Here's my counts I'm doing this because I'm interested in the math (math minor, etc):
15 players left...
Possible Blues:
crate
Foolish
teks (powerless --> green)
?
?
JeeJee
Shikyo
Possible Greens:
choaser
clazz
Knutti
ILoveKTF
SugiuraMidori
motbob
Possible Reds: (based all on Foolish's post)
ydg
wurm
Phelix
l10f
Sadly this means::
We have 6 greens... one is miller, two are mafia, two are blue, one is green.
I'll hide all the calculations in a spoiler tag so as not to make a monumentally sized post and let it be collapsible.
+ Show Spoiler +
Now following with l10f's post...(sorta)
Format: Mafia/Town -- In order for mafia to win they must have greater numbers than town, equal is not a win for them.
This doesn't count Shikyo lasting till Day 10, if he does town wins "draws"
I am also making a huge assumption that Foolishes list is correct.. if it's not they win.
From here we have:
Now: 6/9
(1)
N4: 6/6 (assuming they get a full triple hit in)
D5: 5/6 (using Foolishes list we can get some hits)
N5: 5/3-4 (mafia gets two or three hits and has now won)
(1a)
Diff Scenario for (1)
N5: 5/5 (mafia only gets one hit)
D6: 4/5 (Foolishes list)
N6: 4/3 (mafia got two hits and won)
(1b)
Diff Scenario for (1a)
N6: 4/4 (mafia only gets one hit)
D7: 3/4 (Foolishes list)
N7: 3/2 (mafia gets two hits to win)
(1c)
Diff Scenario for (1b)
N7: 3/3 (mafia gets only one hit)
D8: 2/3 (last on Foolishes current list)
N8: 2/2 (they only have 1KP now)
D9: 1/2 (we get lucky and get one -- hit non mafia = loss)
N9: 1/1 (they get another)
D10: lol I got no clue how a draw works.. xD
(2)
N4: 6/7 (assuming they only get two hits)
D5: 5/7 (Foolishes list)
N5: 5/5 (they get all two hits)
D6: 4/5 (Foolishes list)
N6: 4/3 (mafia now wins with two hits)
(2a)
Diff Scenario for (2)
N5: 5/6 (they only get one hit)
D6: 4/6 (Foolishes list)
N6: 4/4 (they get two hits)
D7: 3/4 (Foolishes list)
N7: 3/2 (they get two hits and win)
(2b)
Diff Scenario for (2a)
N6: 4/5 (they get one hit)
D7: 3/5 (Foolishes list)
N7: 3/3 (they get another two)
D8: 2/3 (we get the last on Foolishes current list)
N8: 2/2 (they only have 1KP)
D9: 1/2 (we get lucky on one -- hit non mafia = loss)
N9: 1/1 (they get one more)
D10: lol I got no clue how a draw works.. xD
(3)
N4: 6/8 (mafia only gets in one hit)
D5: 5/8 (Foolishes list)
N5: 5/5 (mafia gets three hits)
D6: 4/5 (Foolishes list)
N6: 4/3 (they get two hits)
(3a)
Diff Scenario for (3)
N5: 5/6 (mafia gets two hits)
D6: 4/6 (Foolishes list)
N6: 4/4 (they get another two hits)
D7: 3/4 (Foolishes list)
N7: 3/2 (they get two hits)
(3b)
Diff Scenario for (3a)
N6: 4/5 (they only get one hit)
D7: 3/5 (Foolishes list)
N7: 3/3 (they get two hits)
D8: 2/3 (last on Foolishes list)
N8: 2/2 (they only have 1KP)
D9: 1/2 (we get lucky or else lose)
N9: 1/1 (they get a hit)
D10: lol I got no clue how a draw works.. xD
(3c)
Diff Scenario for (3b)
N7: 3/4 (they get one hit)
D8: 2/4 (last on Foolishes list)
N8: 2/3 (they get one -- 1KP)
D9: 1/3 (we get lucky and hit one)
N9: 1/2 (they get a hit)
D10: 0/2 (we find the last one)
(3d)
Diff Scenario for (3c)
D9: 1/2 (we miss and get our own)
N9: 1/1 (they get one)
D10: lol I got no clue how a draw works.. xD
(3e)
Diff Scenario for (3)
N5: 5/7 (mafia only gets one hit)
D6: 4/7 (Foolishes list)
N6: 4/5 (mafia gets two hits)
D7: 3/5 (Foolishes list)
N7: 3/3 (mafia gets two)
D8: 2/3 (last on Foolishes list)
N8: 2/2 (mafia has 1KP)
D9: 1/2 (non mafia hit = loss)
N9: 1/1 (mafia gets a hit)
D10: lol I got no clue how a draw works.. xD
(3f)
Diff Scenario for (3e)
N6: 4/6 (mafia gets one hit)
D7: 3/6 (Foolishes list)
N7: 3/3 (mafia has 2KP)
D8: 2/3 (last on Foolishes list)
N8: 2/2 (mafia has 1KP)
D9: 1/2 (non mafia hit = loss)
N9: 1/1 (mafia gets a hit)
D10: lol I got no clue how a draw works.. xD
(3g)
Diff Scenario for (3f)
N7: 3/4 (mafia only hits one)
D8: 2/4 (last on Foolishes list)
N8: 2/3 (mafia has 1KP)
D9: 1/3 (we have to get red or it's a draw like above)
Now assuming I hit ALL of the possibilities.. I might have missed one:
Total = 15 possibilities
Red: 12 abilities to win -- 80%
Green: 2 abilities to win -- 13%
Draw: 6 abilities to draw -- 40%
If Shikyo is around and not mafia (I don't think he is, others do), town wins draws.. that makes.. ~53% town win chance
Yes the numbers overlap.. didn't know how to count draws so they multi-counted.
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er.. 7 chances to draw.. (missed 3g)
so that's 46.7% chance to draw and if Shikyo is townie and lives till the end...60% chance town wins..
So what do you think this means?
1) Shikyo is mafia then we lose
2) Shikyo is green, dies ... we lose
3) Foolish is wrong on anything.. we lose
4) Mafia kills >2 people tonight.. we lose
I think I'm ready to give up on our town winning.
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It would seem JeeJee wants to lose this pretty badly.. and is trying to take out the town with him..
too bad it'd hurt us to have him lynched.
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13 players left...
Possible Blues:
crate
Foolish
teks (powerless --> green)
?
JeeJee
Shikyo
Possible Greens:
choaser
ILoveKTF
SugiuraMidori
motbob
Possible Reds: (based all on Foolish's post)
ydg
wurm
Phelix
l10f
Sadly this means::
We have 4 greens... one is miller, two are mafia, one is blue, one is green. (yes, there is overlap due to Sheriff and Mayor)
I'll hide all the calculations in a spoiler tag so as not to make a monumentally sized post and let it be collapsible.
+ Show Spoiler +
Now following with l10f's post...(sorta)
Format: Mafia/Town -- In order for mafia to win they must have greater numbers than town, equal is not a win for them.
This doesn't count Shikyo lasting till Day 10; if he does, town wins "draws" -- also assuming Shikyo is not red.
Additionally this doesn't account for inactivity, however I believe that to be of no matter in these counts as it would only cause events to accelerate.
I am also making a huge assumption that Foolishes list is correct.. if it's not they win.
From here we have:
Now: 6/7 -- One of my situation tree's left.
(2)
D5: 5/7 (Foolishes list)
N5: 5/5 (they get two hits)
D6: 4/5 (Foolishes list)
N6: 4/3 (mafia now wins with two hits)
(2a)
Diff Scenario for (2)
N5: 5/4 (they get all three hits)
(2b)
Diff Scenario for (2)
N5: 5/6 (they only get one hit)
D6: 4/6 (Foolishes list)
N6: 4/4 (they get two hits)
D7: 3/4 (Foolishes list)
N7: 3/2 (they get two hits and win)
(2x)
Diff Scenario for (2b)
N6: 4/4 (they only get one hit)
D7: 3/4 (Foolishes list)
N7: 3/2 (they get two hits)
(2y)
Diff Scenario for (2x)
N7: 3/3 (they get one hit)
D8: 2/3 (last of Foolishes list)
N8: 2/2 .... leads to draw -- red + draw
(2c)
Diff Scenario for (2b)
N6: 4/5 (they get one hit)
D7: 3/5 (Foolishes list)
N7: 3/3 (they get another two)
D8: 2/3 (we get the last on Foolishes current list)
N8: 2/2 ... leads to draw -- red + draw
Now assuming I hit ALL of the possibilities.. I might have missed one:
Total = 8 possibilities
Red: 6 abilities to win -- 75%
Green: 0 abilities to win -- 0%
Draw: 2 abilities to draw -- 25%
If Shikyo is around and not mafia (I think he is, others don't), town wins draws.. that makes.. 25% town win chance
Yes the numbers overlap.. didn't know how to count draws so they multi-counted.
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beh.. so talked to Qatol some on rules...
2a above doesn't count..
thus we can remove a possibility and a win for mafia...woot!
7 possible
5 red = 71%
0 green = 0%
2 draw = 28.5%
so we get another 3% higher chance to win! xD
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On May 31 2009 03:50 crate wrote:
I said in the thread that I was a medic and I outright TOLD Midori I was a medic.
How did you not think I was a medic?
lmao
I was playing this much differently than any other game (or so I assume as I never read a single one of them)
I knew the following towards the end::
JeeJee/Foolish were DT
crate was medic
Shikyo was green
motbob was blue
My main goal was simply to kill people, once the math worked out in our favor I didn't care about hitting specifically anyone, and I was perhaps overly confident that if I was ever rolechecked I would be seen as a miller :D
I actually, and ask any other mafia about this, told them NOT to kill crate and Foolish and motbob.. my real goal was kill off people in hopes of nuking the body guards and then nuke Shikyo (sorry bud, but I considered you my play toy for votes :D ) as then it would be impossible for town to win.. medics or not.
Lemme finish reading more and I'll comment on those 
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Well, overall this was an amazingly fun game.. I guess I get too much enjoyment out of manipulating others. No surprise there as I am a girl, and we do enjoy doing that to you 'evil' men
I guess my 'shuffling' pages didn't go with shuffling cards in poker xD
I did get two clues right though:
The wurm kill with the towel whip (I have first hand experience using such a whip on neighbors and know what it can do). -- I may have only mentioned this to our mafia chat but I am too lazy to go look at my post.
I got the bit about Believing and Britney right as well..
but of course, most of my clue analysis was aimed to point out townies as primary and only have minor hints at the mafia. This way, if a mafia was ever hit and anyone looked back at my clue analysis they'd be more likely to suspect me as just a poor clue analyst (which I was indeed) and that I was able to match some right.. to a point, thus I was more likely miller than townie if checked.
Lastly, I was too lazy to use Google or any other such source beyond profiles (I had every single one open in a tab in Chrome) for my analysis, despite that one time saying I would. Additionally, despite Qatol telling me that profile icons were never used in clue analysis since they can change during the game, I continued to use them as such in an effort to drive the town insane.
How I played this game::
I took everything neutrally, as if I was neither townie nor mafia but had the extra knowledge of knowing who mafia were. I tried to make clue posts in a neutral sense that I didn't care which side won. I abused the hell out of grammar pronouns (we they us them our fellow) in order to maintain a look of innocent townie. I also used this to try to get a couple townies lynched, as well as shape up our mafia.
I made, in my opinion, three obvious mistakes that pointed me out as mafia but luckily no one caught them:: saying that I was sick and tired of how bad town was doing and wanting to do my own thing (which I think is what Qatol and Ver caught); not that anyone checked it, but I missed an entire decision tree in my statistical chances analysis leading to lesser mafia chance to win (wasn't intended but could be seen as an effort to force a town forfeit); lastly, I once again gave up on the town being able to win, although it was amidst the others doing the same, I had never expressed this feeling before so it was quite out of character.
On Midori, ~my love~ xD
She was also a high school history professor at the age of 17 (Tell me of someone you know that is that young and a teacher xD) Additionally in Mai-HiME, Midori becomes an archaeologist at the end of the series and goes off to excavate with her professor; and although I'm sure Pyrr had no intentions of this.. sewers can refer to the underground tunnels in the Egyptian pyramids.
I was surprised that Pyrr didn't use more of Midori's tactic's and antics in clues as well as have me kill more, but perhaps he was enjoying my antics too much to ruin me that early on xD. I like how Qatol and everyone was so sure of it being a 'green tie' as if they didn't want to read the wording correctly (trust me that I read every clue post three times before I made an effort to analyze them). Yes, midori does mean green in Japanese, but that would have been far too obvious a clue that early on, and I'm sure other hosts can agree to that. Also, yes, I made quite the effort of defending myself using gender-pronouns (maybe this defense is what Qatol and Ver caught?) which, by the way, should be avoided as much as possible in these games due to mixed-gender players.
EDIT::: I'm allowed to edit now~~
Since it just came up with Qatol... NO, I did not try to match people with clues as a way to frame anyone. What I did was take a 'clue' and look at every profile in turn (hence all the tabs) and list off those players.. and I did that every single time.. as I figured that was the easiest method/approach.
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EPT
