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Shakuras1095 Posts
Ace + All the living bodyguards are confirmed. That 6 total. You probably know of more, but that's all I've got to work with. It becomes 18/103 = 17.4% 1/6 = 16.7% It seems pretty close to me to make focusing on these 6 worthwhile with the added bonus of increasing confirmed townies. I'll take a look at the clues, but I've been terrible so far. | ||
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Shakuras1095 Posts
On April 05 2008 04:01 Ace wrote: well, we also have a problem with useless being MIA. I don't understand this one. Was he supposed to vote for you as per your previous plan? I checked people that didn't follow the suspect 1/suspect 2 voting plan but I didn't check the Ace/Randombum plan. | ||
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Shakuras1095 Posts
On April 05 2008 04:06 Ace wrote: yea focus on those "6". For now I think 2 out of those 6 are innocent also, which really means 1 in 4. I'm so busy atm that I cant put all the data and PMs together that I have. The next step, along with these 6 is to check out the people who have voted and not posted a lot. Chuiu hasn't kicked out any inactives as far as I know so the town is much farther away from where we need to be. 1/4 would be great. If they aren't confirmed innocent you probably shouldn't release the names. There isn't much workload between checking 4 and 6 and I believe we should stick to the numbers without confirmation. | ||
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Shakuras1095 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + Sig: lol, clueless No Profile. No Birthday. Joined TL.net Wednesday, 6th of February 2008 Alventenie + Show Spoiler + No Sig. No Profile. No Birthday. Joined TL.net Saturday, 14th of July 2007 Country United States imDerek + Show Spoiler + No Birthday. Joined TL.net Wednesday, 15th of August 2007 Country United States Sig: keke Profile:"For thou dost know, O Damon dear, This realm dismantled was Of Jove himself; and now reigns here A very, very--pajock." - Hamlet TranceStorm + Show Spoiler + No sig. No Profile. No Birthday. Joined TL.net Monday, 7th of May 2007 Country United States fusionsdf + Show Spoiler + Joined TL.net Wednesday, 7th of June 2006 Birthday September 21, 1987 Country Canada Sig:☭ 1 word: awrsdrsom//Lim Ji Hye ！ Profile: ▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒███████▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒ ▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒████████████▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒ ▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒██████████████▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒ ▒▒▒▒▒▒▒███████▓▓▓▓▓▒███▒▒▒▒▒▒▒ ▒▒▒▒▒▒██████▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▒▒██▒▒▒▒▒▒▒ ▒▒▒▒▒▒█████▓██▓▓▒▒▒▒▒██▒▒▒▒▒▒▒ ▒▒▒▒▒▒████▓▓▓████▓▒▒████▒▒▒▒▒▒ ▒▒▒▒▒▒███▓▓█▒█▒██▓▒█▒█▒█▒▒▒▒▒▒ ▒▒▒▒▒▒███▓▓▓█▒▒▓▓▒▒▓▓▒▒█▒▒▒▒▒▒ ▒▒▒▒▒▒█████▓▓▒▒▓▓▒▒▒▒▒▒▓▒▒▒▒▒▒ ▒▒▒▒▒▒▒████▓▓▒▓█▒▒▒▓█▒▒▓▒▒▒▒▒▒ ▒▒▒▒▒▒▒████▓▓▓████████▒█▒▒▒▒▒▒ ▒▒▒▒▒▒▒████████▒▒▒▒▒██▓█▒▒▒▒▒▒ ▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒██████████████▒▒▒▒▒▒▒ ▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒█████▒█▓▓█▒███▒▒▒▒▒▒▒ ▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒█████▓▒▒▒▒▓███▒▒▒▒▒▒▒ ▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒██████▓▓▓▓████▒▒▒▒▒▒▒ ▒▒▒▒▒▒▒█▓██████████████▒▒▒▒▒▒▒ ▒▒▒▒▒███▓██████████████▓▓▓▓▒▒▒ ▒▒███████▓██████████████▓▓▓▓▓▓ ██████████▓▓███████████▓█▓▓▓▓▓ ![[image loading]](http://img512.imageshack.us/img512/1642/20070518201323zu5.jpg) Evilmonkey. + Show Spoiler + Joined TL.net Saturday, 22nd of April 2006 Birthday February 21, 1991 Country Japan Sig WWBD- What would Boxer do? No Profile. | ||
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Shakuras1095 Posts
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Shakuras1095 Posts
On April 05 2008 04:35 fusionsdf wrote: bad luck for me how should I prove my innocence? Helping us find the real mafia would be a start. What is the Ascii picture of in your profile? Chez and Alventinie don't have much to go on in their profile. Wiki and google don't turn up much for their names. imDerek's Hamlet quote could point to a few things. I;m not sure where to go with that one. There was a big swordfight in the climax. Maybe the clue with swords? TranceStorm has as little to go on as Chez and Alve, but he has storm in his name. Perhaps he is the electrical guy? Evilmonkey. has a slight change on a religious quote as his sig. It could be something with Christianity or something with Boxer. I don't think there was any mention of Monkeys yet, but I believe Evil Monkey comes from the character in Family Guy. | ||
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Shakuras1095 Posts
On April 05 2008 04:44 fusionsdf wrote: ASCII is Leonidas from Sparta That's what I figured. Leonidas fits right in with Mr. Brown (Yelling.) and Mr. Black. (Massive Strength). Edit: Can anyone find anything on Chez and Alve? I'm coming up blank. Based on the last game, I'm terrible at finding clues (Just ask Bob. -_-) so I would really appreciate some help. | ||
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Shakuras1095 Posts
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Shakuras1095 Posts
On April 09 2008 10:01 HeRoS)Pink wrote: You should follow the game a little bit more before saying stuff I don't think so. After Dr. Dragoon was elected Mayor those few weeks ago, his epic plan of just asking the mafia to raise their hands has led to a stunning 8 mafia deaths so far. Our 17 Detectives still alive have been vigorously investigating the other 13 who raised their hands. I think we can be confident that we will find the one townie who is trying to foil Dr. Dragoon's master plan and victory should only be a night or two away. Our 83 vigilantes will make sure of that. | ||
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Shakuras1095 Posts
On April 10 2008 17:51 Scorch wrote: So between this list + Show Spoiler + bumatlarge - 11 MTF d.arkive Pangolin(2) Plexa fanatacist Eti307(2) Empyrean JoxxOr(2) Romance_us(2) BloodyC0bbler(2) Scorch(2) and this list + Show Spoiler + MTF SpiritoftheTuna d.arkive Pangolin(2) Plexa ~OpZ~ fanatacist NatsuTerran Eti307 Empyrean JoxxOr Romance_us BloodyC0bbler he added SpiritoftheTuna, ~OpZ~ and NatsuTerran, and removed my name from the list. What was his motive to do that? Could it be to protect Tuna, OpZ and Natsu because they are fellow mafias, and avoid protecting me because I am an active townie? So many questions... I think I found the differences in the list. The list given by the jack wasn't the final list, but Chuiu's count a few hours before the final count. Check out this post. The real question is what possible reason he would have for reporting it as 0 mafia. We now know that there was at least 1 in the list so the "jack" was lying. | ||
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Shakuras1095 Posts
"Just let us go, you can run things however you please once we're gone" he said, and with that turned to the nearest exit. A few paces and he thought he was home free but Joe called out "Stop him! You heard Eddie, either you're with us or you're permanently not, make your choice now!". DapperDan flinched at the thought, he gauged the distance to the door and what he would need to do to get there. Joe, along with Eddie, is taking the lead from Chuiu. The weakest of the 3, but that is to be expected as it happened on Day 1.Solemn but seeing a promising future the two returned to the room where Eddie and Joe were starting to lay out plans. Joe, along with Eddie, making plans. Again, refering to them as leaders. A little stronger.He figured the man was still drunk and cleaned himself up to get ready to leave but stopped as he noticed someone driving down the road obviously looking for someone. LucasWoJ waved him down and Joe got out of the car. "Is this your friend?" LucasWoJ asked as he pointed to Sidewinder, lying next to a pool of vomit. "Yeah thats him alright, always drinking a little too much" said Joe as he pulled Sidewinder into the back of the car with the help of LucasWoJ. "Well thanks for the help, but I'm afraid my friend was supposed to give you something" said Joe as he turned to face LucasWoj. He was confused in his response and didn't really want anything to do with the two anymore so he decided to be short and walk back toward his van. But Joe pulled out a gun and shot LucasWoJ dead saying "he was supposed to kill you". Joe is taking care of Sidewinder/Queasy. He is caring for the sick, as a doctor would. Even stronger. | ||
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Shakuras1095 Posts
Snake Charmer came in with a sword in hand and they saw Cottonmouth with a belt of knives and half a moment later Mr. White came in and closed the door. NeaX didn't care anymore, he started going to the front door when two knives met his hand as he reached for the handle. He braced himself against the wall as he pulled them out with his good hand. He chucked them back at Cottonmouth and went to open the door again but one by one four more knived embraced his good arm. NeaX fell to the ground and the pain and loss of blood were slowly taking their toll on him. goldenkrnboi watched the whole thing in horror and finally gained the courage to attack the three men in a vain attempt to save his friend. Snake Charmer wasn't just standing idle though as he slashed away at goldenkrnboi giving him one gruesome gash after another. He was just about dead when Mr. White stomped goldenkrnboi's head in finishing him off. NeaX managed to get the door open and was crawling out while they were distracted by goldenkrnboi but Cottonmouth quickly picked up his target once more and finished him off throwing three knives into each of his legs and three in his back. 2 + 4 + 6 + 3 = 15 There were 3 knives in EACH of his legs, for a total of 6 knives in his legs. | ||
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Shakuras1095 Posts
On April 11 2008 00:56 HeRoS)Pink wrote: But thats not the point , what you have to count is all the numbers written 2+4+3+3 = 12 If that is the case, then Day 4 doesn't add up to 12. Down the hall New104 was starting to get worried, rather he was starting to get a little thirsty himself. Empyrean was taking his time, he thought, so that must mean he's brewing a fresh pot. He got up to go get some coffee himself when he noticed five nails on the ground, he walked slowly over to them to investigate. As he was bending over to take a closer look Cottonmouth approached from behind and stabbed a nail into his back. He fell to the ground and Cottonmouth used the opportunity to stab six more nails into him. New104 was cringing in pain but he knew he had to defend himself, he started getting up but met gaze with a strange man on his way up. King Brown Snake slapped him back to the ground and started beating him as he lay there. New104 wasn't anywhere near dead at this point, but his adrenaline was flowing and he used the sudden surge in strength to knock King Brown Snake to the ground and get up himself. He dodge three more nails flying at him and got out to the hallway. Noticing a mafia walking down from the break room he started heading down the opposite direction to the armory. Cottonmouth was in the hallway now and was about to throw another nail at New104 when The Wolf interrupted him. "You just need to hit the right spot" he said as he threw the nail down the hallway, it landed square in the back of New104's head and he convulsed as he dropped to the ground, dying less then a minute later. Adding all the nails, you get 5 + 1 + 6 + 3 + 1 = 16 Adding just the numbers, you get 5 + 6 + 3 = 14 I'm starting to think 12 is really a stretch. | ||
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Shakuras1095 Posts
On April 11 2008 07:45 qrs wrote: No, but the fact that you've been wrong about many of the things you have told us seems to indicate that. That pretty much speaks for itself, doesn't it? But I thought it over and you do have a point; there's not much gained by me bitching about your leadership. And although you've done pretty badly overall, I have no reason to think that I would have been any better. I edited out that second post of mine, and I won't bring the subject up again. I will shut the f--- up, in other words. (You can keep voting for me if you like: hopefully it won't affect whom we lynch.) On the subject of L, I was convinced at first, but once I actually looked at the numbers, they don't seem to add up. As LTT pointed out, there are a lot more than 12 nails. Edit: And if you're counting the nails that hit him, there are only 8.+ Show Spoiler + Down the hall New104 was starting to get worried, rather he was starting to get a little thirsty himself. Empyrean was taking his time, he thought, so that must mean he's brewing a fresh pot. He got up to go get some coffee himself when he noticed five nails on the ground, he walked slowly over to them to investigate. As he was bending over to take a closer look Cottonmouth approached from behind and stabbed a nail into his back. He fell to the ground and Cottonmouth used the opportunity to stab six more nails into him. New104 was cringing in pain but he knew he had to defend himself, he started getting up but met gaze with a strange man on his way up. King Brown Snake slapped him back to the ground and started beating him as he lay there. New104 wasn't anywhere near dead at this point, but his adrenaline was flowing and he used the sudden surge in strength to knock King Brown Snake to the ground and get up himself. He dodge three more nails flying at him and got out to the hallway. Noticing a mafia walking down from the break room he started heading down the opposite direction to the armory. Cottonmouth was in the hallway now and was about to throw another nail at New104 when The Wolf interrupted him. "You just need to hit the right spot" he said as he threw the nail down the hallway, it landed square in the back of New104's head and he convulsed as he dropped to the ground, dying less then a minute later. That's a good point. If you are going to discount the 3 he dodged you have to also discount the 5 that are just laying around. This is the set of rules that Chuiu would need to be following to make 12 a clue. 1.) Only count explicitly numbered knives/nails. a.) Exception - a is a number b.) Clarification - it is not a number 2.) Only count knives/nails that hit the target. a.) Even if they are explicitly numbered, they don't count. b.) Exception - Count knives/nails that are just laying around, only discount ones attempted to hit the target but failed 3.) If 6 knives are placed in the legs but I don't write "3 in the left leg and 3 in the right leg" instead choosing to write "3 in each leg", only 3 of the knives count. It is a little absurd at this point. | ||
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Shakuras1095 Posts
On April 11 2008 12:20 Plexa wrote: People, fuck the lists. They are a great aid but we shouldn't be pushing them any further. Rather than take a guess and go "OH EASY 1/3 CHANCE = INSTA WIN" sit back, check the players, and see what the clues spell out. Rational arguments based on clues are hard to deny, argue or even counter. On that note L is mafioso. Yes Cottonmouth threw 15 knives, but the important thing how the clues are worded. Why say that he threw 3 knives into each of his legs and 3 into his back? Why is it worded so? Summing the numbers stated you get 12 and given the lack of evidence pertaining to L this is a damming clue against him. This clue is very much alike to Queasy and Sidewinder and should not be lightly dismissed simply. Plexa, look at both of my posts. Neither Day 2 nor Day 4 adds up to 12. Here is the second. It isn't just the first not adding to 12. The second doesn't either. On April 11 2008 01:01 LTT wrote: If that is the case, then Day 4 doesn't add up to 12. Adding all the nails, you get 5 + 1 + 6 + 3 + 1 = 16 Adding just the numbers, you get 5 + 6 + 3 = 14 I'm starting to think 12 is really a stretch. | ||
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Shakuras1095 Posts
On April 11 2008 12:31 Plexa wrote: Fair enough, but for now my suspicions are sufficiently high to be thinking L. In your case you have the descending numbers 15, 14, next comes 13 - find be a profile which has descending numbers from 15 and ill change my mind. For now then (i suppose) look at Siefu (who's been neglected) Now I'm confused. None of the numbers add up to 12 unless you start making a complicated set of rules which eliminates the evidence against L but he is still your leading suspect until we find evidence for a clue that might not be a clue? As I said in my PM, we have to be wary of holding grudge suspisions and forcing evidence to fit those descriptions. Last game, I exchanged PMs with SonuvBob trying to figure out who was mafia. During the game, Live2Win used his mod powers to edit another player's post. That pissed me off so I was convinced that we has mafia. Every day I'd get more and more upset at the town for missing painfully obvious clues. I was convinced he was lying about being a medic. It turns out, he wasn't. If you start with a suspect who you are sure is mafia, you are sure to find "evidence" in all those words from Chuiu and the thousands of posts in this thread. If we are going to play based on clues and evidence, which seems to be our best shot at this point, we need to keep the suspicion proportionate to the evidence. When the evidence disappears, our suspicions should diminish proportionately. What you are currently doing doesn't seem to be different from Ace deciding to lynch qrs because he is upset with him. It can't come from anger and then lead to evidence. You have been the best at deciphering clues thus far so we need you in top form to keep seeing red text on day and night posts. Even if L, or qrs, turns out to be mafia, we've made the wrong move if there are any better suspects with evidence behind them. Over the long run, we are going to die if we play like this. | ||
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