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I might be biased, here but I like oats. I like his point here about vivax post's being substantially more conservative than what we've seen from him as town in his past couple games.
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Not calling oats town btw, after the last game I learned to reject all my oats inclinations. I said I like him and what he is saying.
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I'm getting weird vibes from kelsier too, but it's not overriding my town read from the mocsta interaction. I'd say I'd prefer if we left him be for today
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scott, can you explain to me what is a good catch about Slam's post on rsoul?
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Rayn on rsoul: I had similar thoughts to her from reading the initial pages and had a town lean. Her random call out on me seems contrived because she herself does not comment on anything else besides accusing me of lack of commentary. If she really believes I missed something important or more telling than the stuff on scott I would expect she would have commented on that when re-entering the thread. She is in the null pile
on kelsier his dismissive attitude towards mocsta's post and not making an effort to understand where he was coming from was totally carefree, it felt really townie
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I finally have time to play again. Sorry all - family stuff kept me super busy during the weekend. I'm glad that even though I was inactive I was not lynched, but it sucks that you killed Kelsier which to me was one of the town reads I was more confident about. I have to catch up from around page ~30 onwards !! Hoping there is some juicy stuff around the lynch.
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I started by filtering scott, I wanted to see if my read would change from him being likely mafia to inform my reading of the rest of D1. These 2 posts in particular are a strong indication scott is actually townie:
On June 09 2024 10:16 scott31337 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 09 2024 10:07 rsoultin wrote:
gdit all the votes on kels are making me squirrely now too lolol
and then i wifom the shit out of that and ask what scum does seeing a massive wagon on a scummate
maybe they're just both town but then i'd kinda expect a more even spread
i still wanna lynch sandy -_-
idk what i'd do in scott's position as town with his reads on you mocsta, probably want to talk to you about it at least Let's think here - rsoul. Let's play you are town (which I'm thinking) Let's think I'm town (Which I am) Let's think AZ is mafia (Which I suspect) The Keisl3r lynch makes sense in a way if he's mafia? Right? I feel he's given up. AZ wants to lynch me (town) because his buddy (Mafia) will be lynched otherwise. Get Mafia D1 it's probably GG ! You have the same mindset (or close) as me D1. It seems so weird! Now, I've had a few drinks already tonight (Yes) - So I'm not trying to use any outs. I just might not be fully mindset.
This kind of attempt to collaborate and negotiate comes from a townie mindset, extending an olive branch and hoping the other person is not mafia. This comes off as genuine and I believe it's hard to fake, especially having no reason to believe knowing people will pick on this as a town indicator.
On June 10 2024 10:59 scott31337 wrote:Scotty's magic N1 postSo - first - Show nested quote +On June 09 2024 12:23 Mocsta wrote:On June 09 2024 12:22 die_meatbaby wrote:On June 09 2024 12:17 Vivax wrote:
With the Kelsier flip and if he‘s town, Scott starts becoming useful to mafia. Of course he is now usefull for mafia... still easy lynch material I am pretty sure we had t vs t lynch today. Thats a reason why he will not get nk tonight. But why do oats think that he wouldn´t get nk? because im going to jailkeep him Now I know scum had to have seen this and someone put it in their chat. And I have two theories - 1. Mocsta is the JK and will protect someone tonight (Said oats in the post) I think this is the most realistic answer - but I do have some doubts. I believe Mocsta will get shot tonight.2. Mocsta fakeclaimedNow Koshi has been going after Mocsta since he joined. The other thing I want to ask this day also Koshi - Show nested quote +On June 10 2024 07:26 Koshi wrote:
Mocsta is playing very well if mafia.
My initial ping was that I read too many posts from him that didnt help me solve the game. And after reading his filter I didnt change my mind. If I would pnly fead Mocsta his filter I would probably have a very bad grasp on this game. Way worse than for example scott his filter. And afterwards, you still call him mafia. So if you read his filter, you saw the post - and you still want to lynch him. So that tells me something. And I'm willing to listen. Order list - not lynching todayTrfel - Probably still top town. Still thinking things out even at night. I hope he was protected. Very curious who he wants to go after today also. Koshi - I townread Rsoultin and I really townread Koshi. I want to hear Koshi's thoughts on the above first. raynpelikoneet - He's asking questions and thinking about the game as well. I did read Trfel's post on him though and is worth reviewing. Oatsmaster Oats is playing a lot different than his last game, and he also seems to be investigating/scumhunting. Mocsta - I still feel he's town. Depending on Koshi, this could obviously change. Vivax He's been acting a little weird N1, but has some good posts here and there. Weaker die_meatbaby - I'm still townleaning DMB, and the Vivax/DMB posting feels TvT to me. But you need to step it up and scumhunt today. marvellosity - This is so tough. I don't know any recent marv games, but back in the day when we played, he was very timid as scum. This marv is not. But this marv also comes up with indifferent scumreads and is in the bed with AZ. So weird. Would lynch order Sandroba - enough said. There hasn't been any new posts from Sandroba from my last one. Alakaslam Filter is very meh. Marv townread, AZ townread, scumread me. Had one okay post and the rest has not been. AlphaZero A very good player that has my spider senses on alert. A few other townies have a bit of suspicion also on him, but not enough to really matter yet. I'm very curious of who he goes after today.
This type of night post usually comes from townies as well - of course mafia can fake something like this but when they do it normally comes off unnatural and either too low or too high effort. This one hits right to me and seems genuine.
I'm willing to go and say I feel scott is very likely townie and I'm hoping there is obvious mafia that we can focus on today instead.
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Around page 42 and I'm reading up on the discussion about Mocsta being mafia mostly driven by marv/az and trfel taking opposite sides. While I can see the points raised by marv/az being valid about the blatant way mocsta is throwing stuff around just to post and trying to justify them later, I fall in trfel side of the argument thinking that mocsta is being too open and collaborative about his thought process that it just screams town to me. I might just be completely outdated and the way mafia is playing this game now just goes beyond whatever I'm used to expect. Last game I had a few of my assumptions shattered, but unfortunately as a player I can only offer what I honestly believe. If I just throw it all out the window it means I'm just useless and can offer nothing. Because of that I'm just going to assume my intuition is correct for now and say mocsta is also town.
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On June 10 2024 22:30 Mocsta wrote:Show nested quote +On June 10 2024 22:02 sandroba wrote:I started by filtering scott, I wanted to see if my read would change from him being likely mafia to inform my reading of the rest of D1. These 2 posts in particular are a strong indication scott is actually townie: On June 09 2024 10:16 scott31337 wrote:On June 09 2024 10:07 rsoultin wrote:
gdit all the votes on kels are making me squirrely now too lolol
and then i wifom the shit out of that and ask what scum does seeing a massive wagon on a scummate
maybe they're just both town but then i'd kinda expect a more even spread
i still wanna lynch sandy -_-
idk what i'd do in scott's position as town with his reads on you mocsta, probably want to talk to you about it at least Let's think here - rsoul. Let's play you are town (which I'm thinking) Let's think I'm town (Which I am) Let's think AZ is mafia (Which I suspect) The Keisl3r lynch makes sense in a way if he's mafia? Right? I feel he's given up. AZ wants to lynch me (town) because his buddy (Mafia) will be lynched otherwise. Get Mafia D1 it's probably GG ! You have the same mindset (or close) as me D1. It seems so weird! Now, I've had a few drinks already tonight (Yes) - So I'm not trying to use any outs. I just might not be fully mindset. This kind of attempt to collaborate and negotiate comes from a townie mindset, extending an olive branch and hoping the other person is not mafia. This comes off as genuine and I believe it's hard to fake, especially having no reason to believe knowing people will pick on this as a town indicator. On June 10 2024 10:59 scott31337 wrote:Scotty's magic N1 postSo - first - On June 09 2024 12:23 Mocsta wrote:On June 09 2024 12:22 die_meatbaby wrote:On June 09 2024 12:17 Vivax wrote:
With the Kelsier flip and if he‘s town, Scott starts becoming useful to mafia. Of course he is now usefull for mafia... still easy lynch material I am pretty sure we had t vs t lynch today. Thats a reason why he will not get nk tonight. But why do oats think that he wouldn´t get nk? because im going to jailkeep him Now I know scum had to have seen this and someone put it in their chat. And I have two theories - 1. Mocsta is the JK and will protect someone tonight (Said oats in the post) I think this is the most realistic answer - but I do have some doubts. I believe Mocsta will get shot tonight.2. Mocsta fakeclaimedNow Koshi has been going after Mocsta since he joined. The other thing I want to ask this day also Koshi - On June 10 2024 07:26 Koshi wrote:
Mocsta is playing very well if mafia.
My initial ping was that I read too many posts from him that didnt help me solve the game. And after reading his filter I didnt change my mind. If I would pnly fead Mocsta his filter I would probably have a very bad grasp on this game. Way worse than for example scott his filter. And afterwards, you still call him mafia. So if you read his filter, you saw the post - and you still want to lynch him. So that tells me something. And I'm willing to listen. Order list - not lynching todayTrfel - Probably still top town. Still thinking things out even at night. I hope he was protected. Very curious who he wants to go after today also. Koshi - I townread Rsoultin and I really townread Koshi. I want to hear Koshi's thoughts on the above first. raynpelikoneet - He's asking questions and thinking about the game as well. I did read Trfel's post on him though and is worth reviewing. Oatsmaster Oats is playing a lot different than his last game, and he also seems to be investigating/scumhunting. Mocsta - I still feel he's town. Depending on Koshi, this could obviously change. Vivax He's been acting a little weird N1, but has some good posts here and there. Weaker die_meatbaby - I'm still townleaning DMB, and the Vivax/DMB posting feels TvT to me. But you need to step it up and scumhunt today. marvellosity - This is so tough. I don't know any recent marv games, but back in the day when we played, he was very timid as scum. This marv is not. But this marv also comes up with indifferent scumreads and is in the bed with AZ. So weird. Would lynch order Sandroba - enough said. There hasn't been any new posts from Sandroba from my last one. Alakaslam Filter is very meh. Marv townread, AZ townread, scumread me. Had one okay post and the rest has not been. AlphaZero A very good player that has my spider senses on alert. A few other townies have a bit of suspicion also on him, but not enough to really matter yet. I'm very curious of who he goes after today. This type of night post usually comes from townies as well - of course mafia can fake something like this but when they do it normally comes off unnatural and either too low or too high effort. This one hits right to me and seems genuine. I'm willing to go and say I feel scott is very likely townie and I'm hoping there is obvious mafia that we can focus on today instead. I appreciate you chose to prioritise the other wagon although I don't support the town read from that first post. Firstly the olive branch approach is influence technique. All alignments need to influence.and is null in itself. Scott.is a wagon candidate so I don't agree employing this discerns town over scum. is not a townie trait . Secondly, contextually rsoultin was responding to me being wary of Scott because scott didn't talk to me about my changing read on AZ - relevant because scott wants to lynch per the post you shared and Scott was buddied to me at that time. If anything that approach you refer to should have come.to me if Scott was town. No I'm not butthurt. Regarding the second post, I don't see what you are valuing to assign it as genuine or the right level of detail.. I mean the marv null read is purely association to az. My curiosity is why you ignored Scott's case of AZ in this analysis? After all, az.is his top top scim.read and should represent his most genuine effort in the entire.filter no? Note I didn't say accurate, just genuine. https://tl.net/forum/mafia/625928-sweet-summer-mafia?page=104#2076
I just saw this post so responding to it now, and will resume my read. Of course any alignment can do and post anything, there is no law that says mafia can't post something. Most of my narratives about alignment are kinda of trying to put into words and explain my intuition about something, even trying myself to understand why I think something. In this case the perspective it comes from, the leap of faith towards a player with a slight caveat and the attempt not to rid of suspicion towards oneself but to direct thinking about his world view feels genuine and I can fully explain it from a townie perspective, while from mafia to me would take an amazing actor with very little to gain on this trivial interaction.
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On June 08 2024 21:24 Oatsmaster wrote:
Doesn’t think Scott is mafia and doesn’t think mocsta is mafia and spends reams of paper explaining why
Not sure why, this made me laugh a ton. trfel is probably right you know
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Oats is either town or mafia with rsoul. If rsoul is town I don't think it's ever reasonable for oats to be mafia. There is just too much effort and insistence arguing against rsoul about her misrepresentation / misinterpretation of my post.
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I'm around page 70, the beginning of N1. My worldview right now is:
Town:
trfel
mocsta
oats
scott
Likely town:
vivax
AZ
Mafia is here:
rsoul, rayn, dmb, slam
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On June 09 2024 17:00 Koshi wrote:
I am 100% convinced you are mafia. But I will lynch you last because your filter is huge.
Sandroba and Mocsta are both mafia and I think we agree on that.
Okay this actually makes me feel a lot better, since I think rsoul is to me much harder to pin down as mafia than Koshi. For Koshi if he is this bad he is mafia and this view makes him mafia 100%. There is absolutely no way Koshi comes in with fresh eyes, reads the same thread as me and comes to this conclusion.
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On June 10 2024 07:52 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Vivax go with me on sandroba, mocsta, az, ok?
Hey rayn, how did you go from not seeing me as mafia asking questions to koshi to this without any answers?
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On June 10 2024 19:32 Mocsta wrote:Show nested quote +On June 10 2024 04:58 Trfel wrote:VivaxVivax seemed to scumread both scott31337 and Kelsi3r. He spent much of his day 1 trying to figure out which was the better lynch (while suspecting both). See these posts (for example) about his increasing desire to lynch Kelsi3r: On June 09 2024 07:18 Vivax wrote:On June 09 2024 07:03 Mocsta wrote:
I'm becoming more and more open to lynch outside kelsier
He doesn't looked bullied out to me as his tone is pretty consistent start to finish
I still think his tone specifically to me is more unhelpful mafia than town, however the nonchalantness is somewhat consistent even after which I am.imcreasingly.viewing as townie
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I really don't want to vote Scott for mason stuff
Is there a case outside of that?
....
Rsoultin I will give sandroba a read I think the opposite the less Kelsier does the more I want to lynch him. Feels like a weird defense here if you don‘t have a particularly strong conviction outside of that. On June 09 2024 07:51 Vivax wrote:On June 09 2024 07:46 scott31337 wrote:On June 09 2024 07:39 Vivax wrote:
I‘m comfy with Az taking the reins here. They seem competent and townish to me.
Them pitting Oats against me was a bit dickish tho If you do this, He's going to want to lynch me and I'll flip town. Only if you lynch him D2 is this a suitable outcome. There‘s people I think are around but just choosing not to post. Mocsta and him would be my guess. I‘m moving to Kelsier. He doesn‘t appear motivated anyway. On June 09 2024 08:45 Vivax wrote:
What I like about scott is that he seemed pretty genuine as of late. He isn‘t really trying every trick in the book to keep himself afloat just doing his thing.
Kelsier might have given up as either alignment. Then Vivax has this reason to vote for scott31337: On June 09 2024 09:43 Vivax wrote:On June 09 2024 09:19 scott31337 wrote:On June 09 2024 09:04 AlphaZero wrote:On June 09 2024 08:59 Mocsta wrote:On June 09 2024 08:58 rsoultin wrote:On June 09 2024 08:47 Mocsta wrote:On June 09 2024 08:45 Vivax wrote:
What I like about scott is that he seemed pretty genuine as of late. He isn‘t really trying every trick in the book to keep himself afloat just doing his thing.
Kelsier might have given up as either alignment. town can also not want to be mislynched.. is this 'effort'notion a scott meta thing? at the risk of answering for viva if scum's gonna keep posting they want to either 1) try to get the lynch off them 2) shit up the thread or they just roll over i guess there's the third option of trying to get more attention so it's off a scummate if you've got two scum up for lynch? i wouldn't say that's what scott's posting looks like. guy's been scumread from minute 1 and still is just bebopping around salient notion alphazero - where does that sit with you? Well he is trying to survive, to me he just continues to exhibit the traits that o find scummy and I outlined above. Says things and can’t provide foundations or reasoning that can really be taken seriously. We can even contrast that with your own play, you have looked substantially more town aligned the more you interacted and explained thought processes and your reads have changed and grown as that has happened. Scott’s reads haven’t changed and he hasn’t looked any better. That is classic mafia trait imo. I favor Oats more than the last magical time you are making up. That's a change of read. Rsoul is a little higher on my list as well. Trfel isn't going to change much today unless he does something stupid. What's there to change on DMB,sandroba, and Alakaslam? They haven't posted. Marv isn't coming back tonight from his word. Kelsi3r - nuff said Mocsta - I still town read him even if he gets junk from other people. Is still thinking reasonable, unlike yourself. Vivax - I wouldn't lynch today either. On June 09 2024 09:38 scott31337 wrote:On June 09 2024 09:33 Vivax wrote:On June 09 2024 09:29 scott31337 wrote:On June 09 2024 09:18 Mocsta wrote:
one underlying issue i have with scott is that
when he was getting heat and i backed him, he made some posts that soft buddied to me.. which i thought was completely reasonable if town.
my issue therefore is that, as my read with AZ has shifted and evolved, hes not paid attention (publicly at least) to it.. no comments or impact on scotts AZ read is very weird to me.
now scott says hes completely up to date, so its been read, and apparently not relevant - so again. i find this super super weird and struggling to identify how town would do that. AZ is not the lynch today unless everyone expands their mind. So forgive me for not spending the energy nested into such. But he's my #2 still - so help me out - maybe I missed a point of yours. Excuse me but what do you mean by the bolded. Town. Yes. I'm town. But that doesn't answer the question. If you're so convinced we should lynch AZ which I suppose you are by saying that the mind of town is closed, why isn't he in the list ? And then this? On June 09 2024 10:52 Vivax wrote:
Considering the time I‘ll just let Kelsier happen ig He sounds so sad about lynching Kelsi3r, who he was very content to lynch for much of the day, and was getting increasingly happy to lynch until scott31337 did something that stuck out to him as especially scummy. This doesn't add up from the town perspective, Vivax ought to be at least content with a Kelsi3r lynch. Then, Vivax has a series of posts after the deadline about scott31337 being town: On June 09 2024 12:07 Vivax wrote:
Scott is never going to get lynched on D2, and he isn‘t going to get vigged either. Going by experience.
Doesn‘t have to be a bad thing but it means we look for 2-3 outside of him. On June 09 2024 12:13 Vivax wrote:On June 09 2024 12:09 die_meatbaby wrote:On June 09 2024 12:07 Vivax wrote:
Scott is never going to get lynched on D2, and he isn‘t going to get vigged either. Going by experience.
Doesn‘t have to be a bad thing but it means we look for 2-3 outside of him. how about giving a look on ninja rayn or az Az lookedlike he was posting forcibly around EoD, rayn didn‘t make himself readable. Townies can have reasons to refuse to be readable. To be honest everyone has good reason to refuse to be readable. I‘d guess the masons of the day were rayn and Trfel. The flip doesn‘t automatically make Scott more scummy, if you were town in his situation you‘d understand why, so look at those who think so. On June 09 2024 12:17 Vivax wrote:
With the Kelsier flip and if he‘s town, Scott starts becoming useful to mafia. On June 09 2024 12:35 Vivax wrote:On June 09 2024 12:32 Mocsta wrote:On June 09 2024 12:25 Vivax wrote:On June 09 2024 12:18 Mocsta wrote:On June 09 2024 12:13 Vivax wrote:
The flip doesn‘t automatically make Scott more scummy, if you were town in his situation you‘d understand why, so look at those who think so. help me out, im being dumb dumb the only reason i can see is this from marv https://tl.net/forum/mafia/625928-sweet-summer-mafia?page=66#1302like.. why cant mafia have wagoned kelsier to save scott equally? i get in marv of rsoultin, he is expecting the most likely answer is double-town wagon; yet, why cannot it not be an effort to save scott equally? It‘s beneficial to take sides as mafia here. Or maybe look undecided. They only have two buffets to choose from and don‘t have to be active so there‘s zero downside to being active, preferrably on the side of the one who‘s going to remain unflipped. Without accounting for players who are time constrained or just don‘t care enough. i see which feeds into my ongoing concerns with how the kelsi3r train was building i dont want to blanket discard how d1 unfolded for you; heuristically for me, its really hard to not acknowledge the complexities of having 1/3 of town to barely post for the 24hrs before lynch. it makes it hard for me to then follow your interpretation. i am in agreement with the other post that there should be options outside of scott tomorrow though. Right ? Wouldn‘t make much sense after a majority decided to spare him. My next favourite would be the rsoultin slot because theirs was one of the deciding votes. Not necessarily to lynch but definitely to consider. Which makes absolutely no sense given that he still strongly believes that scott31337 is mafia. How is not lynching scott31337, who is mafia, a bad thing? That's absolutely a bad thing! Vivax was seemingly frustrated that he had to settle for the Kelsi3r lynch instead of lynching scott31337, why is he suddenly accepting the "majority-decided" verdict of keeping scott31337 alive and why is that a reason to focus on other people instead? It's not that what Vivax is saying is wrong necessarily, or in other words, it's completely fine to have alternative lynch options to scott31337. But from the perspective of someone who thinks scott31337 is mafia, and just missed out on lynching him, why is his focus on finding other people to focus on (besides scott31337) and what it means if scott31337 is town? Why isn't his focus on scott31337 being mafia? If Vivax was no longer scumreading scott31337 then this makes sense, but that isn't the case at all: On June 10 2024 00:16 Vivax wrote:On June 10 2024 00:14 Trfel wrote:On June 09 2024 23:53 Vivax wrote:
I have a townread on dmb fwiw. She seems very relaxed tonally.
I‘d like a doc on marv.
I‘d like rayn to play the game.
I love GabeN Is scott31337 mafia still? I think so. Don‘t understand his post about AZ if he isn‘t. The end result is that Vivax is very suspicious. There hasn't been the normal insightful thinking or tinfoil, he seemed very happy with the two wagons day 1 (scott31337 and Kelsi3r), despite the odds of both being mafia being quite low. I would have thought this was even more suspicious for someone with paranoia like Vivax, but instead he seems quite content with the gamestate. wow this is great. Love the pick up about appeal to majority consensus as well. Very scummy yet didn't register to me in when reading in the moment Took me like 3-4 blocks to go through this because of all the quotes. I will probably clean this up for you a bit later today so reads cleaner ##vote:vivax
Listen, this is usually what gets Vivax lynched every game. Some sort of inconsistency or misplaced emotion that makes no sense from a town perspective. I don't think vivax is mafia this game, and even if I'm wrong about this and he is it's at best a crap shoot, because the game where palmar lead his lynch day1 looked exactly like this.
Look I'm just as lost as the next guy, I'm thinking this has to be koshi + rayn + slam/dmb basically by poe - but I think going for vivax right now is a mistake.
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On June 11 2024 02:59 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Sandrobas reads do not track. He just took the town consensus scumreads and put them in a list.
That in itself isnt wrong, but he has just talked anout how oats can be scum if rsoultin is scum, then rsoultin (koshi) is scum, but oats is not on the list.
Also case on rsoul being mafia is basically "i cant find reasons for her to be mafia"?????
This post just looks like someone trying to bury me, I honestly after being caught up don't even think there is any consensus here. Rsoul / Koshi being scum does not make oats scum, although it makes him not 100% town based on that logic alone. I haven't posted any case on rsoul, although I do believe that slot is likely mafia.
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On June 11 2024 03:55 Koshi wrote:
Ok. I cant do shit in this game.
Fml.
Entirz day wasted waiting on Vivax to do something. He did nothing and this guy removes the pressure and leaves the thread in shambles.
It looks like you are just flustered being caught sheeping a myslinch after being excited of things going your way.
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Koshi looks absolutely terrible from this, I don't think there is any world this man can be town
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I mean koshi + rayn makes too much sense. The random town reads, the weird interactions, it all fits! I think trfel is right about dmb being the third as well.
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On June 11 2024 04:12 scott31337 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 11 2024 04:09 sandroba wrote:
I mean koshi + rayn makes too much sense. The random town reads, the weird interactions, it all fits! I think trfel is right about dmb being the third as well. Random townreads and weird interactions? Are you projecting?
I mean I guess what people find random and weird is somewhat personal. Jokes aside I think the way rayn / rsoul and later koshi / rayn have posted about each other looked fake in almost every instance.
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EPT
