The people unlikely to flip mafia are:

Trfel, good day 1, still agree with some of his posts except when he wants to lynch me.
Scott, also good day 1 and inoffensive posting.

Then you have Chez, who is basically just a wildcard.

Finally it's the two people who play have some reason to be mafia.

1) rayn

rayn has spent the entire game undermining town efforts.

1. He attacked a pretty NAI scott vs Trfel thing in the beginning. No idea why I even cared about this.
2. Then he attacked me for just calling Trfel town
3. Then he parroted Vivax and Me on Oatsposting (did you roll mafia again?)
4. But he didn't actually vote for Oats or do anything with it for a while kinda semi-talked to him and then kinda joined the wagon.

5. rayn says no way I shoot grack.
6. then makes a case on me. that is just astronomically terrible.

His entire case is literally just a complaint that I voted for the mafia instead of the townie when his stupid brain thinks that he can interpret my (very few) words into thoughts that should have made me vote the townie instead of the mafia.

Like seriously, go read it, the case boils down to "Based on what Palmar said, I think he's scummy for voting mafia over town".

Here... it's actually kind of funny how stupid it is: https://tl.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=28181101

Oh and he added another point against me is that he found it unfair I had a townread on Vivax when his almighty rayn thinks it's impossible for me to have one because apparently he knows how I think.

7. at least stonewalling him made him shut up. For the record. I'm not talking to, answering or acknowledging rayn at all this game. I'll speak with other people if needed.

2) Jealous

Jealous spent way too much time arguing about the stupid paintings, and I feel like he did very little else throughout the game. Maybe it's just a result of his kind of stupid post restriction of trying to use only mspaint, which is dumb and anti-town, but doesn't necessarily make him mafia.

Problem is, he did vote Oats early and stuck with it. And he voted for the correct reason. Oats was indeed focusing on stupid shit that wasn't going to lead anywhere.

Actually, as I write this I might move my vote back from Jealous. and maybe he isn't mafia. I'm just retarded and got annoyed looking at his filter.

Palmar

Iceland22633 Posts

May 14 2024 13:15 GMT

#545

Problem with the rayn thing is that he actually genuinely thinks this way.

1) he constructs a model of "expected behavior", which is usually wildly wrong
2) he then compares his model with "actual behavior"
3) finding the discrepancy he goes and attacks it

He does this as either alignment which is why it's hard to deal with. Last 2 games he has, both as mafia and town, tried to go after me because he doesn't believe that his model of me is wrong. It's literally just the same thing again. He thinks that I should have thought that Grack was more likely to flip mafia, and is having a tantrum because I voted Oats. He has no idea how or why I reach my conclusions and explaining doesn't help, hence, stonewalling.

Remember how insane this is, he's mad that I didn't vote town because his incorrect model predicts I should have.

Palmar

Iceland22633 Posts

May 14 2024 13:16 GMT

#546

So maybe we just kill Chez, he's been unhelpful.

This is serious Chez, if you want to live you need to start being useful, because I'm running out of lynch options.

Palmar

Iceland22633 Posts

May 14 2024 14:03 GMT

#547

No Jealous needs to be on the table but it's so damn confusing.

But if we lose this game it's Vivax' fault for costing us a mislynch.

Basically the only scenarios where Jealous isn't just mafia based on role interactions are the following:

1) Mafia held or forgot to shoot. This is very, very unlikely. If mafia is checked out, just resign. Also everyone seems to be playing. Maybe they held it to confuse us?

2) Mafia shot Grack. This is possible, but pretty very few scum candidates would've been interested in shooting Grack, knowing he was probably going to be tunneled.

The simplest solution is just that Jealous is mafia and shot Grack, and got whatever other random powerup. I honestly don't understand the point on some powerups, wtf is a roleblocker going to do when it's the only role in the game?

(sidenote, rayn suggesting I may forget to NK because it's weekend shows how incredibly dumb his model is. That is something I will never, ever do because of how I treat game integrity).

Palmar

Iceland22633 Posts

May 14 2024 14:05 GMT

#548

Also Trfel had a good idea, maybe we just no lynch?

Palmar

Iceland22633 Posts

May 14 2024 19:08 GMT

#556

On May 15 2024 03:00 scott31337 wrote:

Show nested quote +

Trfel - what does this vote count tell you?

Palmar has voted everything but Chezinu to save himself. Now that does not say he cannot vote Chez in an hour and 59 minutes - but is this alignment indicative?

Cant vote then. I have a tee time.