A Classy Game of Mafia - Page 61

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DarthPunk

Australia10857 Posts

March 14 2024 04:35 GMT

#8001

On March 14 2024 13:30 iamperfection wrote:

Show nested quote +

more in am i missing something

Probably yes,

I am missing something too, I am writing out a list post, and it's thoroughly unsatisfying.

The game is really hard right now which means that one of my town reads is mafia and I have no idea which.

It could be palmar but that kind of seems too 'obvious' in a way.

The simplest explanation to me is that it is just cake and you guys fucked it up yesterday and now I am doubting myself.

If I could have a cop check on cake and palmar right now game would be much easier IMO.

DarthPunk

Australia10857 Posts

March 14 2024 04:38 GMT

#8004

On March 14 2024 13:37 iamperfection wrote:
because palmar said something that was true Jat didnt really make clear what he thought of me at any point in the game from what i see in his filter. We certainly interact and he kind of quotes me a lot but he never really calls me town or mafia from what i see.

And what do you make of that?

DarthPunk

Australia10857 Posts

March 14 2024 04:40 GMT

#8006

On March 14 2024 13:37 CopCake wrote:

Show nested quote +

I was parked in that world

Now, live in the world I am town

Who is mafia?

What do you think of what I said of DMB?

I said “is koshi /rels” she then says “is koshi/rels”, same reads as me but she says she doesnt trust me 😩

Good thing I didnt write a lot in the mason chat, she might be the one to twist my words.

I think lack of trust is a classic trait of town DMB..

If you are town Cake, I suggest you stop looking so much into people's consideration of you as alignment indicative.

If everyone who thought you were mafia was mafia it would be more than half the game at this point.

If you are mafia carry on of course

DarthPunk

Australia10857 Posts

March 14 2024 04:40 GMT

#8007

On March 14 2024 13:38 CopCake wrote:
Seriously DP, work in the world I am town perspective.

I have been off and on since yesterday, that should be obvious from my filter.

DarthPunk

Australia10857 Posts

March 14 2024 04:52 GMT

#8011

List post time (Approximately in order from most to least town)

Tier 1 - confirmed town

-----Vivax ------
[image loading]

Confirmed by claim, by night actions, by meta etc. etc. Trick with Vivax is to just ignore the 30% of his posts that are derived from the deeply paranoid and conspiracy theorist parts of his Psyche. Then he is really strong after that.

Tier 2 - Town reads

---Perfection ---
[image loading]

I just don't see him playing this way as mafia, I guess it is a tone read and you can all call me bad if I am wrong, but it just feels different to his scum play. Every time he posts a big post I think he is town. That is a good thing. He has been on the wrong side of every fucking wagon though.

----Koshi -----
[image loading]

kind of dropped off hard for a bit, but now he is doing Koshi things, Emotional congruence was really good for him, getting shitty at me and cake, then getting mad at himself for being potentially super wrong all game.
He has been really agentic in scumhunting the last 24 hours or so and has risen dramatically in my estimations accordingly.

Tier 3 - Town reads
--- MZ---
[image loading]

Also been on the wrong side of wagons, the Oats wagon was pretty egregious for example. However he has put in buckets of work when he didn't have to and I found myself agreeing with some of his takes.

Some of his walls are really hard to read but I kind of also associate that with town a bit, just because it means he is deep in his own land working away. So yeah, MZ town.

------DMB:------
[image loading]

I think she is too far from her scum meta this game, she is tonally town (although she tricked me last game with this) and just seems to be the right mix of paranoid, flexible in her reads and trying to solve the game.

----Palmar-----
[image loading]

My read on him has gotten a lot less firm recently, I don't think he looked the best last night dealing with the pressure. I think the push on Jat is fine, but the read on perfection is fucking out there imo. It took me ages to find a gif to encapsulate my feelings on him which is telling.

I am sticking with my gut here and marvs read at end of day one. But really, what have you done for me lately bro?

Tier 4 - Question Marks.

Jealous:

\

Town read him from mason chat, hasn't really changed much since. I feel like he has been coasting a bit recently, and potentially I have been pocketed at some point which worries me so he got dropped a tier.

Occams' razor is that we are just townies that see the game the same way, but yeah I have too many weak town reads and not enough scum reads so things are starting to make me nervous.

Rels:

Looks super good and logical. BUT, has not been that proactive in pushing his scum reads when apparently they are godlike, his early pressure on mafia looked like distancing, no idea what he is doing with cake TBH lots of flipflopping around there. Tend to think that is townier to do. Not really sure how to read him TBH so he is going into the POE.

Cake:
[image loading]

I actually think there is a lot that points to her as town recently, and looking back at her interactions day 1 with oats. there is a bunch of stuff that makes me think mafia too. But if I just go through and make a list of reads she is still firmly in the POE.

Jat:
[image loading]

Very little thread presence. has done nothing proactive to suggest he is town aside from caring about the day one vote, just thread policing. Talked a big game in the obs last game and then has done fuck all this game.

Conclusion
As I said to perfection, im not that satisfied with where I ended up, I am sure that something here is probably massively wrong because the game is just too hard to figure out after 400 pages.

Wouldn't be surprised if Palmar was mafia for example.

I think Koshi was right though that Palmar and Cake have to be opposed alignment cause of the rayn shot night one.I liked that analysis.

At the moment my feeling is that getting the alignment of Palmar and Cake correct should solve the game. I like the Jat wagon cause it fits right into my view of the game right now and it delays the decision making required to unravel the cake/palmar dichotomy.

If they are both town I think perfection, koshi and MZ all go back on the table because of the Oats wagon, but I don't want to live in that world.

So yeah, feel free to unpack this with me people and the gifs are just jokes, please don't get offended.

DarthPunk

Australia10857 Posts

March 14 2024 04:53 GMT

#8012

Ahh fuck broken links

DarthPunk

Australia10857 Posts

March 14 2024 04:54 GMT

#8013

I have spent 5 hours straight reading this abomination of a game so im taking a break.

Imperial 2.0 fml.

DarthPunk

Australia10857 Posts

March 14 2024 05:04 GMT

#8016

On March 14 2024 14:00 iamperfection wrote:
that nk analysis talk.

I just think in at least my experience mafia teams don't operate for just individual players it almost always a consensus or everyone just listens to the best player. would a mafia team listen to cop you think? I guess their could be personal reasons she may have shrieked about in the mafia chat to do it? But i dont think rayn is strange kill at all. I thought he was obvious he was town and a strong player so why not just kill him?

Did you read her qt last scum game she had a lot of influence and decided to kill Rayn.

I Think you have a fair point but I also think koshi does.

DarthPunk

Australia10857 Posts

March 14 2024 05:04 GMT

#8017

On March 14 2024 14:04 iamperfection wrote:
i should go to bed. it is my birthday tomorrow and im supposed do stuff but ill probally end up posting a lot anyways as i have a problem

Just have fun irl. And play if you enjoy it 😛

DarthPunk

Australia10857 Posts

March 14 2024 05:16 GMT

#8021

On March 14 2024 14:16 iamperfection wrote:

Show nested quote +

i didnt obs that one so i dont have that discord.

i think

OK fair enough, need to take my word for it then

DarthPunk

Australia10857 Posts

March 14 2024 05:23 GMT

#8025

On March 14 2024 14:21 CopCake wrote:
Btw Vivax is not 100% DP, i dont understand how is that mechanical possible.

Like it is - more likely - but not a locked thing.

I just posted the most likely world in which you are town, but there are others that are tinfoil.

OK yeah I agree there is some infinitesimal chance that vivax is mafia, but I think it is so unlikely to as not be worth considering.

Who is your team right now cake?

If you flip town and I die at night what is the direction town should be going in?

DarthPunk

Australia10857 Posts

March 14 2024 05:28 GMT

#8028

On March 14 2024 14:25 CopCake wrote:

Show nested quote +

I asked you first to work in the world I am town.

Please have the consideration to do it just the way I did.

I think something like JAT/Palmar/XXX would make sense if you are town.

DarthPunk

Australia10857 Posts

March 14 2024 05:37 GMT

#8032

On March 14 2024 14:34 CopCake wrote:

Show nested quote +

What made you change your view of locked town DMB?

With me is how she came here, shared same reads and still say she doesnt trust me?

Cmon

What do you mean?

DarthPunk

Australia10857 Posts

March 14 2024 06:07 GMT

#8036

There is never too much Rayn am i right?

DarthPunk

Australia10857 Posts

March 14 2024 07:28 GMT

#8044

On March 14 2024 15:43 CopCake wrote:

Show nested quote +

Why is this worldview?

Walk me into that perspective as if I was 7

Just POE and sheeping koshi's reads cause he has been in that headspace longer.

DarthPunk

Australia10857 Posts

March 14 2024 07:29 GMT

#8045

On March 14 2024 16:27 Palmar wrote:

Show nested quote +

On March 14 2024 10:35 Rels wrote:

On March 13 2024 15:59 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
I have been hesitant to scumread Palmar bc I had that TR of him early, masoned him but got blown off so I couldn’t make any real determination, and he was drunk posting with me. That said I think Rels looks terrible right now and some of that has been his association and disassociation with his Palmar reads. Palmar has also been scumreading me for most of the game so I’ve been careful trying to not let that cloud my judgement. That said, it’s time to address his scumread of me or lack thereof.

On March 09 2024 07:01 Palmar wrote:
God I'm so lazy and bad at this game.

This sums up my read of Palmar tonight.

On March 06 2024 06:54 Palmar wrote:
As for other people.

I stand by the sandroba townread, koshi is probably town too. I like Oats a lot more now for actually making sense. I also like JSL and Vivax.

I'd need VE to actually step up some again, same with Trfel. I had some reads on both but they're weak. DMB is also a weak maybe townread.

iamperfection is making sense, but the guy is smart enough to make sense when there is no pressure on him as either alignment.

DP is a little more wildcardy to me this game, I haven't always agreed with his takes.

TTS, JEalous, Hapa just need to be policied out.

I've not read or even noticed Rels at all which is a bad omen.

rayn is weird to me. I'm again getting the feeling that he's just posting a lot and saying very little, also I really, really don't like that he's not pressuring marv at all in the mason QT it seems.

Idk about CopCake, nothjin one way or the other.

MZ looks kinda bad, but it's very weak as I haven't really read him.

MZ bad but haven’t read him

On March 06 2024 08:55 Palmar wrote:
I'm finalizing here.

I like a bunch of mafia in:

rayn
jat
rels
mz
tts

then there's gonna be some mafia in the people who should be killed on policy

vivax
trfel
hapa

then there's the people that need constant monitoring and need to improve

iamp
marv
jealous
copcake
slam
ve

and finally we have the people I have somewhere from mild to good reasons to think are town

sandro
oats
dp
dmb
jls
koshi

None of the lists are in any particular order

I don't really think Trfel will flip mafia. It's just a "I believe in people" read that he wouldn't fuck off like that as mafia with the whole "If I get lynched I get lynched" thing. But it's an objectively good lynch so I'm not going to fight it all that hard. Leaving my vote on jat. I've been burned before by placing too much faith in people not doing crazy things as mafia so it's whatever.

I’m in his mafia category

On March 09 2024 07:11 Palmar wrote:
Essentially it comes down to:

I really need to filter dive CopCake, DMB, MZ, Rels and JSL because there's like 3 mafia in there.

One is probably either Oats or Slam, unless we're just the unluckiest town in the world.

Also if Slam and Vivax are genuinely town and both claimed on day 1, we deserve to lose.

There's gonna be a hidden mafia there somewhere.

MZ in the Mafia but have to filter dive category

On March 09 2024 07:30 Palmar wrote:
MZ doesn't look great in our topic.

But to be fair, neither do I cause I don't talk to him.

More MZ not great

On March 10 2024 20:21 Palmar wrote:
There is 3 mafia in mz/rels/jat/iamp/ve

MZ again

On March 10 2024 20:56 Palmar wrote:
I actually think we should be lynching MZ as an alternative

Lynch MZ

On March 11 2024 19:22 Palmar wrote:

On March 11 2024 18:33 JacobStrangelove wrote:
Yeah like okay this is the world Cop DMB DP and I and VIvax are all town.

Lets even say VE is scum.

Who's the last two?

Lol this doesn't matter for now.

To put the game in perspective, we're basically in a normal 13 player game of town vs mafia. 10 town, 3 mafia.

But we have two VERY likely "blue checks" (you and DP). We also have like 200 pages of bullshit that can be parsed.

We're in a great position. We can mislynch 3 times and still be in the game. The current state of the game demands simple playing. We're not in lylo, we're not even close to lylo. We should not be tinfoiling for hidden mafia. We need to be killing the people who have stereotypical scum characteristics, and first and foremost amongst them is VE. He is not interested in the game, isn't helping to solve it, seems to not be enjoying playing etc.

Consider it a pseudo policy lynch, which is almost always a good idea in day 1 on a normal game.

I can't stress enough how important it's to just keep a happy disposition. We're in a stronger than expected position. There is no need to panic, just calmly keep analyzing the game.

The one weakness of the game is that very little information can be gained from the last 2 days because they have been semi-default lynches. Which is another reason why resolving VE is great for the state of the game. I'll happily reconsider if VE starts looking supertown.

Also to answer your question... MZ and JAT?

MZ with a big old question mark

On March 12 2024 00:54 Palmar wrote:
By the way I think CC should not be lynched and have a slight townread. I understand the waffling and self-doubt and giving up can be faked, but it still is more likely to come from town than scum.

I also think dmb sounds a lot more reasonable this game than last game.

For one reason or another, I'm not really considering the following people right now:

dp
jls
koshi
cc
dmb
vivax

Then there's like two people I just need to actually get off my ass and read

jealous
iamp
rels

and then there's the people I actively think could be mafia

jat
mz
ve

Remember, to me I'm really thinking about the game as a "day 1" situation where we have plenty of time and mislynches left. I am not really questioning weaker townreads and tinfoil theories at the moment, there is no need to.

Oh boy guess who’s scum again

On March 12 2024 23:39 Palmar wrote:
Still don't like MZ, but again, it's just preliminary filtering, not a full read.

I have been Palmar’s main scumread most of the game and he has done literally nothing about it. Every single time he calls me scum, he caveats his read so that while I’m his number one choice, he’s always got a reason why he’s not sure, maybe he just puts a question mark there or maybe it’s because he hasn’t read my filter, or maybe he needs to reread me. We're all busy but it's D3 and he's still using these excuses. He’s used every reason possible to not actually stand behind his scumread of me, push his scumread of me, or do anything but sheep along with whatever wagon that’s been convenient for the last 2 days. He is not actually serious about this read. It gets lost in the churn of the thread since he hasn’t been very active but it’s painfully clear when you read his filter. I think he keeps expecting to come back to the thread and for there to be a wagon on me that he can hop on and push but then have plausible deniability because he won't have been the primary push for me despite shading me the entire game.

I think Palmar is scum with Rels, tbd who their teammate is at the moment. I have a part 2 of this analysis which is going to look at the connections between those two but that’s gonna have to wait bc its way past my bedtime and I have work tomorrow.

Not on bad post on Palmar TBH
Kinda townie from MZ too, thinking about the game as a whole and thinking about Palmar and I being partner. If Palmar is town, that means that this analysis is thrown out the window as soon as one of us flips

Lol the TMI continues

I thought you had him as town?

DarthPunk

Australia10857 Posts

March 14 2024 07:30 GMT

#8046

Cake when was the last time you read my filter?

DarthPunk

Australia10857 Posts

March 14 2024 08:19 GMT

#8055

On March 14 2024 16:52 Palmar wrote:

Show nested quote +

I think the wagon on jat is very pure.

I agree with this much at least.

DarthPunk

Australia10857 Posts

March 14 2024 11:30 GMT

#8096

On March 14 2024 20:27 Palmar wrote:
Need more DP in my life to help

Our schedules are the polar opposite.

I’m about to go to sleep I can post for a bit though. What’s up?

DarthPunk

Australia10857 Posts

March 14 2024 11:33 GMT

#8097

I’m not really sure why koshi still thinks you and JAT can be partnered here. You just ensured mafia would die in that case by making the counter wagon to yourself your scum partner so that is interesting to me.

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