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On March 13 2024 10:43 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On March 09 2024 06:59 Palmar wrote:
So like I'm going to try to sort of organize the game in my head, and I'm going to do it out loud, so you can watch me think. It's a fascinating display.
We probably have about 5 mafia in this game. It could be 4, but then they have very strong roles. Normal balance would suggest 5.
This means I need to start sort of filtering down the people I want to think about.
First up, the people I don't really want to lynch or even consider at all:
DarthPunk for huge filter and repeatedly liking his takes on things.
Vivax because that's the gamble we made when we didn't policy lynch him.
Then there's the weaker town reads that are definitely going to contain some mafia:
Koshi was very good early day 1, but I feel like his impact has been reduced. Still not enough to start calling him mafia
marvellosity - I kinda think he's maybe town, he did come around on me correctly, and I kinda trust sandro's read. So for what it's worth, he goes into the "worry later" pile.
Then there's the people who will be resolved by today
Slam - we lynch slam if Oats flips non-miller town. The frame idea is statistically so unlikely
Oats - we lynch Oats today because despite his efforts, there is like 90% chance of him flipping mafia. He does look and say townie things which is pretty well played, but the odds of any other random player flipping red just happen to be significantly lower
Frame math:
Slam check 1/18 (lynches + himself) players = 5.56% chance he checks Oats
Framer frames 1/14 players (21 - 2 lynches - 5 mafia) = 7.14% chance Oats gets framed
This means there's like... 0.3% chance a framer hits the same target the cop checks (but obviously intiution skews this a lot) it's still the best play to do it like that.
Actually as I write this I realize I have way too few townread, which means I really, really need to get work done. For one reason or another I don't trust any of the people below.
Jealous - lack of investigation from me, little posting
Meapak_Ziphh - lack of investigation from me, I'm masoned with the dude but I'm a terrible mason partner because I think they're stupid. That's mostly on me. I also recall some of his posting being a little meek
justanothertownie - Some really atrocious takes throughout the game. Bullshit associative reads and voting without any kind of analysis.
die_meatbaby - lack of investigation from me. I remember having a different feel from last game, but she still gets stuck on dumb shit.
CopCake - I kinda liked rayn's point during the night. Also she should really think I'm town after our discussion in the night.
JacobStrangelove - This guy is clearly just smart. I liked his posting because it's all pretty reasonable, but I feel like he isn't moving the needle at all this game. Happy sitting back and not getting listened to.
Iamperfection - One particularly terrible take during the night, but maybe he just doesn't know what a policy lynch is. I didn't follow up enough to understand if it was malicious or just kinda stupid.
ToTheStars - lurker
VisceraEyes - Fell off cliff. Where VE?
Rels - Terrible case on me on day 1 that reeked of mafia trying to "contribute". Super clear he wasn't caught up on the game and lacked opinionsþ
The dumbtells are in bold Does it really post this as scum? Especially DMB was pushed for a seemingly forced dumbtell earlier? I have a hard time seeing this. I know it's a little dumb but I really do
I think yes experienced scum would be struggling to keep up with being as dumb and scummy as town are tbh.
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On March 13 2024 10:32 JacobStrangelove wrote:Show nested quote +On March 13 2024 10:21 Vivax wrote:
What‘s with anyone wanting to kill Palmar first.
He‘s someone you can safely take to mylo/lylo.
The ones you don‘t want at those are martyrs, trolls and anti-town players. Well apparently people who do that flip town so more important we lynch scum than policy lynch.
It doesn‘t matter what they flip, they show that they could potentially place the wrong vote when it matters the most. So the alignment wouldn’t matter.
Even if iamp switching sucked, VE still self-voted and played against wincon
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Meeeeeh
VE was so scummy though. Objectively the better lynch, objectively the textbook scum play of being active only when it matters during the last 24 hours, and martyring when it doesn't work
Annoying
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Anyway 8 minutes to go. I leave you all for a better place. Where the grass is green and the obs chat calls me dumb instead of the game chat.
Vote the pretender kill palmer.
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On March 13 2024 10:48 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On March 13 2024 10:46 iamperfection wrote:On March 13 2024 10:43 Rels wrote:On March 09 2024 06:59 Palmar wrote:
So like I'm going to try to sort of organize the game in my head, and I'm going to do it out loud, so you can watch me think. It's a fascinating display.
We probably have about 5 mafia in this game. It could be 4, but then they have very strong roles. Normal balance would suggest 5.
This means I need to start sort of filtering down the people I want to think about.
First up, the people I don't really want to lynch or even consider at all:
DarthPunk for huge filter and repeatedly liking his takes on things.
Vivax because that's the gamble we made when we didn't policy lynch him.
Then there's the weaker town reads that are definitely going to contain some mafia:
Koshi was very good early day 1, but I feel like his impact has been reduced. Still not enough to start calling him mafia
marvellosity - I kinda think he's maybe town, he did come around on me correctly, and I kinda trust sandro's read. So for what it's worth, he goes into the "worry later" pile.
Then there's the people who will be resolved by today
Slam - we lynch slam if Oats flips non-miller town. The frame idea is statistically so unlikely
Oats - we lynch Oats today because despite his efforts, there is like 90% chance of him flipping mafia. He does look and say townie things which is pretty well played, but the odds of any other random player flipping red just happen to be significantly lower
Frame math:
Slam check 1/18 (lynches + himself) players = 5.56% chance he checks Oats
Framer frames 1/14 players (21 - 2 lynches - 5 mafia) = 7.14% chance Oats gets framed
This means there's like... 0.3% chance a framer hits the same target the cop checks (but obviously intiution skews this a lot) it's still the best play to do it like that.
Actually as I write this I realize I have way too few townread, which means I really, really need to get work done. For one reason or another I don't trust any of the people below.
Jealous - lack of investigation from me, little posting
Meapak_Ziphh - lack of investigation from me, I'm masoned with the dude but I'm a terrible mason partner because I think they're stupid. That's mostly on me. I also recall some of his posting being a little meek
justanothertownie - Some really atrocious takes throughout the game. Bullshit associative reads and voting without any kind of analysis.
die_meatbaby - lack of investigation from me. I remember having a different feel from last game, but she still gets stuck on dumb shit.
CopCake - I kinda liked rayn's point during the night. Also she should really think I'm town after our discussion in the night.
JacobStrangelove - This guy is clearly just smart. I liked his posting because it's all pretty reasonable, but I feel like he isn't moving the needle at all this game. Happy sitting back and not getting listened to.
Iamperfection - One particularly terrible take during the night, but maybe he just doesn't know what a policy lynch is. I didn't follow up enough to understand if it was malicious or just kinda stupid.
ToTheStars - lurker
VisceraEyes - Fell off cliff. Where VE?
Rels - Terrible case on me on day 1 that reeked of mafia trying to "contribute". Super clear he wasn't caught up on the game and lacked opinionsþ
The dumbtells are in bold Does it really post this as scum? Especially DMB was pushed for a seemingly forced dumbtell earlier? I have a hard time seeing this. I know it's a little dumb but I really do what are you saying that he didnt pick up that jacob had claimed gunsmith? As town that's the explanation yeah As scum, it's impossible he doesn't know IMO, it would be talked about in their Discord. So as scum, that's an intentional dumbtell
eh i dont know about that. The first dumb tell was after marv had already done the same thing i believe. The second one is just not reading the thread as closely which feels scummy to me. You have a point though.
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On March 13 2024 10:38 JacobStrangelove wrote:
I just don't get what you're going die here.
Damn what a scum slip ;D
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On March 13 2024 10:36 Rels wrote:
Kind of lost
I think the arguments on Koshi, but I still think he's town every time I read a posting spree from him. If he's scum, he really upped his level and motivation
If I had to settle on a team right now, it would be CopCake / Jealous / Probably MZ. I would have to revisit MZ because his D2 looked really fucking townie to me
DMB is town by association from CopCake in that scenario
agree with this.
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On March 13 2024 10:52 Vivax wrote:Show nested quote +On March 13 2024 10:32 JacobStrangelove wrote:On March 13 2024 10:21 Vivax wrote:
What‘s with anyone wanting to kill Palmar first.
He‘s someone you can safely take to mylo/lylo.
The ones you don‘t want at those are martyrs, trolls and anti-town players. Well apparently people who do that flip town so more important we lynch scum than policy lynch. It doesn‘t matter what they flip, they show that they could potentially place the wrong vote when it matters the most. So the alignment wouldn’t matter. Even if iamp switching sucked, VE still self-voted and played against wincon
Yeah but, if we kill all the bad town this game mafia wins as there'll be nobody left.
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On March 13 2024 10:36 Rels wrote:
Kind of lost
I think the arguments on Koshi, but I still think he's town every time I read a posting spree from him. If he's scum, he really upped his level and motivation
If I had to settle on a team right now, it would be CopCake / Jealous / Probably MZ. I would have to revisit MZ because his D2 looked really fucking townie to me
DMB is town by association from CopCake in that scenario
CopCake and me both being scum would be an Oscar-worthy performance for both of us I think. I'm simply not the thespian you seem to think I am. Sorry to disappoint.
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On March 13 2024 10:54 Jealous wrote:Show nested quote +On March 13 2024 10:36 Rels wrote:
Kind of lost
I think the arguments on Koshi, but I still think he's town every time I read a posting spree from him. If he's scum, he really upped his level and motivation
If I had to settle on a team right now, it would be CopCake / Jealous / Probably MZ. I would have to revisit MZ because his D2 looked really fucking townie to me
DMB is town by association from CopCake in that scenario CopCake and me both being scum would be an Oscar-worthy performance for both of us I think. I'm simply not the thespian you seem to think I am. Sorry to disappoint.
You have my interest, why?
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On March 13 2024 10:55 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On March 13 2024 10:54 Jealous wrote:On March 13 2024 10:36 Rels wrote:
Kind of lost
I think the arguments on Koshi, but I still think he's town every time I read a posting spree from him. If he's scum, he really upped his level and motivation
If I had to settle on a team right now, it would be CopCake / Jealous / Probably MZ. I would have to revisit MZ because his D2 looked really fucking townie to me
DMB is town by association from CopCake in that scenario CopCake and me both being scum would be an Oscar-worthy performance for both of us I think. I'm simply not the thespian you seem to think I am. Sorry to disappoint. You have my interest, why?
As hypocritical as it may be, CopCake's hurt-posting and self-vote felt pretty genuine, I was immobile to lynch her D2, and she didn't switch off of herself either. The only reason she didn't get lynched is because of iamperfect. So your team would have to be two great actors in Me/CC and a painfully obvious hammer on VE from iamperfect. Nothing else would really make sense.
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It’a reassuring that Rels thinks Mz and Jealous can be mafia.
Maybe we can be friends.
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Day 4JacobStrangelove the Gunsmith has been killed.
Day 4 begins. The day ends on Friday, Mar 15 2:00am GMT (GMT+00:00), which is in
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On March 13 2024 10:59 Jealous wrote:Show nested quote +On March 13 2024 10:55 Rels wrote:On March 13 2024 10:54 Jealous wrote:On March 13 2024 10:36 Rels wrote:
Kind of lost
I think the arguments on Koshi, but I still think he's town every time I read a posting spree from him. If he's scum, he really upped his level and motivation
If I had to settle on a team right now, it would be CopCake / Jealous / Probably MZ. I would have to revisit MZ because his D2 looked really fucking townie to me
DMB is town by association from CopCake in that scenario CopCake and me both being scum would be an Oscar-worthy performance for both of us I think. I'm simply not the thespian you seem to think I am. Sorry to disappoint. You have my interest, why? As hypocritical as it may be, CopCake's hurt-posting and self-vote felt pretty genuine, I was immobile to lynch her D2, and she didn't switch off of herself either. The only reason she didn't get lynched is because of iamperfect. So your team would have to be two great actors in Me/CC and a painfully obvious hammer on VE from iamperfect. Nothing else would really make sense.
Oh I thought it was going to be about some back and forth between you and CC that made it impossible to be partner, a little disappointed :p
Really disagree with the martyring part. First, I already found a post from anoter scum game of her where she martyred. Second, you cannot know she wasn't there, ready to ninja vote VE at the last minute if needed
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##Vote CopCake
Let me atone for my sins
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lol I totally forgot about the changes to the deadline, was just about to write out my reads and then it didn't matter.
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On March 13 2024 11:03 Rels wrote:
##Vote CopCake
Let me atone for my sins
She has a huge filter though, weren't you the one to raise that initially?
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On March 13 2024 11:05 DarthPunk wrote:
lol I totally forgot about the changes to the deadline, was just about to write out my reads and then it didn't matter.
we run on freedom time.
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EPT![[image loading]](https://i.gifer.com/FC80.gif)
