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A Classy Game of Mafia - Page 17

Forum Index > TL Mafia
Post a Reply
Prev 1 15 16 17 18 19 20 Next All
Alakaslam
Profile Blog Joined September 2011
United States17336 Posts
March 08 2024 18:56 GMT
#4962
I am not going to say straight up what I am/have been thinking for N2. Come on. Give me credit as a person who can read and write.
If you think Elon Musk is a Nazi, it is because YOU radicalized him!
Alakaslam
Profile Blog Joined September 2011
United States17336 Posts
March 08 2024 18:57 GMT
#4963
On March 09 2024 03:54 iamperfection wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 09 2024 03:51 Alakaslam wrote:
On March 09 2024 03:38 iamperfection wrote:
On March 09 2024 03:26 Alakaslam wrote:
Besides VE would have been my next check

That would have been an awful check imo.

Day 1?

You should check people you aren't sure of and people you couldn't lead a lynch on otherwise. Ve is easy lynch. I don't think oats was a bad check to be honest. At least from my point of view.

I wasn't sure on VE day 1, and I think you misremember how easy or hard it would have been.

And I can't lead ANY lynch on a good game, and this is NOT one of my good games.
If you think Elon Musk is a Nazi, it is because YOU radicalized him!
Alakaslam
Profile Blog Joined September 2011
United States17336 Posts
March 08 2024 19:07 GMT
#4966
On March 09 2024 03:57 iamperfection wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 09 2024 03:56 Alakaslam wrote:
I am not going to say straight up what I am/have been thinking for N2. Come on. Give me credit as a person who can read and write.

That's not what I said at all but ok.

Right, when you clarified what you were saying, what had been pretty low of a blow in my interpretation turned into more implied respect than I have had here in a long time...
If you think Elon Musk is a Nazi, it is because YOU radicalized him!
Alakaslam
Profile Blog Joined September 2011
United States17336 Posts
March 08 2024 22:31 GMT
#5024
On March 09 2024 07:21 Palmar wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 09 2024 07:16 Oatsmaster wrote:

Frame math:
Slam check 1/18 (lynches + himself) players = 5.56% chance he checks Oats
Framer frames 1/14 players (21 - 2 lynches - 5 mafia) = 7.14% chance Oats gets framed

This means there's like... 0.3% chance a framer hits the same target the cop checks (but obviously intiution skews this a lot) it's still the best play to do it like that.

I don’t mind getting lynched but not because of math this bad…

Slam checking me probability is 1 because it happened.

So the only probability in play is whether there is a framer and whether the framer landed on me.
Consertively let’s say the probability of a framer existing in this game is 0.9 and the probability of the framer landing on me randomly is 0.07 so the total probability is 0.064 which is 6.5% MINIMUM.
Now if you bump the probability of a framer up to 1 and consertively say slam had 4 possible cop checks it becomes 25% that I got framed.

Miller is not really consequential I agree at this point it’s like a 8% chance it’s on me if it even exists


I mean slam could also just be lying and he's mafia happily going 1 for 1, we already have a ton of blue roles running around.

But the math isn't bad. You have to consider the possibility of "Oats gets framed, Slam checks marv" or something. From my vantage point that is an entirely plausible scenario, because I cannot control Slam.

This is btw why framer is a terrible role. It's so useless like 99% of the time and randomly swings 1% of games way out of whack. It really shouldn't exist.

He says he cannot read me.

Look at this, marv was my 4th consideration of 4- but still, it was someone I considered.

3 was a total seekrit
If you think Elon Musk is a Nazi, it is because YOU radicalized him!
Alakaslam
Profile Blog Joined September 2011
United States17336 Posts
March 08 2024 22:34 GMT
#5029
On March 09 2024 07:28 Palmar wrote:
Would be a good policy lynch, because he claimed day 1.

Problem is slam is chaotic enough to do this bullshit as either alignment. he doesn't actually play with any kind of logic.

I play with logic that comes to most people when they smoke weed.

I overthink each choice to death, get scared of my propensity to overthink, and act on impulse- then realize impulsive behaviour is not so great, and decide to think before I act, in which case I overthink each choice to death, get scared of my propensity to overthink...
If you think Elon Musk is a Nazi, it is because YOU radicalized him!
Alakaslam
Profile Blog Joined September 2011
United States17336 Posts
March 08 2024 22:35 GMT
#5030
On March 09 2024 07:33 Koshi wrote:
Worst math I have seen in a while.
If they have a framer, the chance they picked Oats is the only thing you need to calculate. Add the chance of a miller in there and you know the odds.

The chance they picked Oats is high because our cop decided to bold his fucking name in his reads post after claiming cop.

Chance of Slam not being town and cop is low.


Our blues and DP are so fucking bad that mafia has 1 rb and 3 blues to pick from.

So I guess 2 die tonight. And no tears will be shred.

Wait did I do that?
If you think Elon Musk is a Nazi, it is because YOU radicalized him!
Alakaslam
Profile Blog Joined September 2011
United States17336 Posts
March 08 2024 22:36 GMT
#5031
Show the post or it didn't happen, post number not a quote
If you think Elon Musk is a Nazi, it is because YOU radicalized him!
Alakaslam
Profile Blog Joined September 2011
United States17336 Posts
March 08 2024 22:36 GMT
#5032
I never bolded Oats name
If you think Elon Musk is a Nazi, it is because YOU radicalized him!
Alakaslam
Profile Blog Joined September 2011
United States17336 Posts
March 08 2024 22:37 GMT
#5033
I tried to hide that intent actually after a certain way into D1
If you think Elon Musk is a Nazi, it is because YOU radicalized him!
Alakaslam
Profile Blog Joined September 2011
United States17336 Posts
March 08 2024 22:37 GMT
#5034
Koshi why are you lying about shit?
If you think Elon Musk is a Nazi, it is because YOU radicalized him!
Alakaslam
Profile Blog Joined September 2011
United States17336 Posts
March 08 2024 22:38 GMT
#5036
Like MZ that could be true but I am starting to build a team:
MZ Koshi Oats VE and ???
If you think Elon Musk is a Nazi, it is because YOU radicalized him!
Alakaslam
Profile Blog Joined September 2011
United States17336 Posts
March 08 2024 22:39 GMT
#5037
Wait you are saying that the mafia team is playing THAT fast?

6:55 my time is 5 minutes until deadline
If you think Elon Musk is a Nazi, it is because YOU radicalized him!
Alakaslam
Profile Blog Joined September 2011
United States17336 Posts
March 08 2024 22:42 GMT
#5042
On March 09 2024 07:40 Oatsmaster wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 09 2024 07:39 Alakaslam wrote:
Wait you are saying that the mafia team is playing THAT fast?

6:55 my time is 5 minutes until deadline

5’minutes is plenty of time to submit an action.
Normally people post end of night stuff like the minute before

Fair point.

Badass scum to pull you from that rather than DarthPunk
If you think Elon Musk is a Nazi, it is because YOU radicalized him!
Alakaslam
Profile Blog Joined September 2011
United States17336 Posts
March 08 2024 22:43 GMT
#5043
On March 09 2024 07:42 Koshi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 09 2024 07:38 Alakaslam wrote:
Like MZ that could be true but I am starting to build a team:
MZ Koshi Oats VE and ???

Rels and dmb. Dont forget those.

Eh, I feel less sure on anyone else and you cleared this up ninja a little after I put it up.
If you think Elon Musk is a Nazi, it is because YOU radicalized him!
Alakaslam
Profile Blog Joined September 2011
United States17336 Posts
March 08 2024 22:46 GMT
#5048
On March 09 2024 07:44 Koshi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 09 2024 07:42 Alakaslam wrote:
On March 09 2024 07:40 Oatsmaster wrote:
On March 09 2024 07:39 Alakaslam wrote:
Wait you are saying that the mafia team is playing THAT fast?

6:55 my time is 5 minutes until deadline

5’minutes is plenty of time to submit an action.
Normally people post end of night stuff like the minute before

Fair point.

Badass scum to pull you from that rather than DarthPunk

Next time you roll cop slam. Just
Dont claim
Play like you always do so survive till d3 or d4
N1 scout worst vet
N2 scout alternative wagon
D3 claim only if you had 2 succesful checks.

This was my plan, but the 3 most trusted slam readers are Rayn, CopCake, and Chezinu.

Rayn SR me immediately. I decided worst thing could happen is I get d1 lynch and Rayn (who I could already tell was town 100% and already wanted for mayor) would get discredited

Didn't want that outcome and was mad he was SR me for less than usually good reasons for him
If you think Elon Musk is a Nazi, it is because YOU radicalized him!
Alakaslam
Profile Blog Joined September 2011
United States17336 Posts
March 08 2024 22:47 GMT
#5050
On March 09 2024 07:46 Vivax wrote:
I wish you checked Rels this wagon is on town methinks

I never had any intent to check Rels.
If you think Elon Musk is a Nazi, it is because YOU radicalized him!
Alakaslam
Profile Blog Joined September 2011
United States17336 Posts
March 08 2024 22:48 GMT
#5054
On March 09 2024 07:47 Koshi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 09 2024 07:46 Alakaslam wrote:
On March 09 2024 07:44 Koshi wrote:
On March 09 2024 07:42 Alakaslam wrote:
On March 09 2024 07:40 Oatsmaster wrote:
On March 09 2024 07:39 Alakaslam wrote:
Wait you are saying that the mafia team is playing THAT fast?

6:55 my time is 5 minutes until deadline

5’minutes is plenty of time to submit an action.
Normally people post end of night stuff like the minute before

Fair point.

Badass scum to pull you from that rather than DarthPunk

Next time you roll cop slam. Just
Dont claim
Play like you always do so survive till d3 or d4
N1 scout worst vet
N2 scout alternative wagon
D3 claim only if you had 2 succesful checks.

This was my plan, but the 3 most trusted slam readers are Rayn, CopCake, and Chezinu.

Rayn SR me immediately. I decided worst thing could happen is I get d1 lynch and Rayn (who I could already tell was town 100% and already wanted for mayor) would get discredited

Didn't want that outcome and was mad he was SR me for less than usually good reasons for him

Well he docsaved you at the end.

Because I claimed?

In a way this was a better result that what could have happened is what my wifom brain tells me.
If you think Elon Musk is a Nazi, it is because YOU radicalized him!
Alakaslam
Profile Blog Joined September 2011
United States17336 Posts
March 08 2024 23:01 GMT
#5079
Where I was saying Koshi was wrong was in saying that I am an emotionless prophet that has a full understanding of all possible worst case scenarios no matter what my motivation for retreating online for a while may be.

Paz
If you think Elon Musk is a Nazi, it is because YOU radicalized him!
Alakaslam
Profile Blog Joined September 2011
United States17336 Posts
March 09 2024 02:43 GMT
#5234
On March 09 2024 11:14 DarthPunk wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 09 2024 10:57 Oatsmaster wrote:
Town

Do not fucking lynch slam ever no matter if I flip miller or VT or I will end you after this game.


Don’t you mean when?

That is an accurate post, it is if because miller is nsa
If you think Elon Musk is a Nazi, it is because YOU radicalized him!
Alakaslam
Profile Blog Joined September 2011
United States17336 Posts
March 09 2024 02:44 GMT
#5236
On March 09 2024 11:22 DarthPunk wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 09 2024 11:20 iamperfection wrote:
On March 09 2024 11:17 DarthPunk wrote:
On March 09 2024 11:16 iamperfection wrote:
On March 09 2024 11:14 DarthPunk wrote:
On March 09 2024 10:57 Oatsmaster wrote:
Town

Do not fucking lynch slam ever no matter if I flip miller or VT or I will end you after this game.


Don’t you mean when?

is that why you think hes mafia now? he wouldn't know if he is miller. bruh


He knows he is going to flip miller or vt

So why would he say if he flips miller or vt.

It’s when or whether he flips on of those.

no he doesn't if he is town he could have also been framed this is not a reason.


I’m saying he should know he is town so he doesn’t need to say if.

He just needs to say don’t lynch slam when I flip!


I am perfection is just correct Darth punk
If you think Elon Musk is a Nazi, it is because YOU radicalized him!
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