Therefore, there are 3 plausible mafia:
Myself, Vivax, and Rayn

Rayn gets lynched today, which leaves us at 1 mafia v 3 town seemingly.

Then Trfel blocks me. If shot doesn't go through, I get lynched (conversely, if shot goes through, lynch Vivax).

Then Trfel can simply block Vivax if I flip town, and lynch mafia in a 1v2 LYLO.

Hapahauli

United States9305 Posts

December 01 2020 22:52 GMT

#1511

Like this game is mechanically over, no?

Hapahauli

United States9305 Posts

December 01 2020 22:53 GMT

#1512

I guess it's not over if Trfel is faking JK, but he'd be doing that simply to extend the game for no reason to taunt us.

Which would be BALLER AS FUCK, but unlikely.

Hapahauli

United States9305 Posts

December 01 2020 22:53 GMT

#1513

Vivax, what part of my analysis above doesn't hold water? Basically, town can safely lynch all three plausible mafia to win the game.

Hapahauli

United States9305 Posts

December 01 2020 22:54 GMT

#1514

OH FUCK nevermind it would be 2v2 in a mislynch today.

Hapahauli

United States9305 Posts

December 01 2020 22:54 GMT

#1515

So it's "solved" if Rayn flips mafia.

Hapahauli

United States9305 Posts

December 01 2020 22:56 GMT

#1516

So Vivax, from your perspective, Rayn is guarenteed mafia with me.

So lets lynch Rayn. He is guaranteed mafia. Then the game is actually mechanically and mathematically over.

Hapahauli

United States9305 Posts

December 01 2020 22:59 GMT

#1517

FF is confirmed town.

Town has no way of being alive today unless Trfel is actually the JK.

From your perspective, mafia had to shoot. Therefore, Rayn is confirmed mafia.

And if Rayn flips mafia, town can safely lynch both you (Vivax) and me in subsequent days.

Hapahauli

United States9305 Posts

December 01 2020 23:00 GMT

#1518

On December 02 2020 07:32 Hapahauli wrote:
I'm still buying you a drink Rayn.

Hapahauli

United States9305 Posts

December 01 2020 23:04 GMT

#1520

For realsies Vivax - is there any theoretical preference, from your perspective, to lynching myself first vs Rayn first?

Hapahauli

United States9305 Posts

December 01 2020 23:09 GMT

#1522

I am 100% OK with being policy lynched after Rayn.

Hapahauli

United States9305 Posts

December 01 2020 23:12 GMT

#1523

But again to be clear Vivax, you agree with me that there is no way that Trfel is mafia in this spot. Correct?

Hapahauli

United States9305 Posts

December 01 2020 23:12 GMT

#1524

And there's no way that FF is mafia in this spot. Correct?

Hapahauli

United States9305 Posts

December 01 2020 23:19 GMT

#1525

D4 Start:
FF (confirmed town by mechanics)
Trfel (no way for game to be alive right now unless he is JK
Hapa (plausible mafia from FF/Trfel perspective)
Vivax (plausible mafia from FF/Trfel perspective)
Rayn (confirmed mafia from everyone's perspective).

Rayn gets lynched.

N4 Start:
FF (confirmed town by mechanics)
Trfel (no way for game to be alive right now unless he is JK
Hapa (plausible mafia from FF/Trfel perspective)
Vivax (plausible mafia from FF/Trfel perspective)

Trfel blocks Hapa.
If a player dies, Vivax is confirmed mafia, GG.
If no town dies, Hapa gets policy lynched next day.

D5 start (if no town dies):
FF (confirmed town by mechanics)
Trfel (no way for game to be alive right now unless he is JK
Hapa (plausible mafia from FF/Trfel perspective)
Vivax (plausible mafia from FF/Trfel perspective)

Hapa policy lynched. If I flip red, GG.
If I flip town, Vivax confirmed mafia.

N5 Start:
FF (confirmed town by mechanics)
Trfel (no way for game to be alive right now unless he is JK
Vivax (confirmed mafia from FF/Trfel perspective)

Trfel blocks Vivax. No mafia KP delivered. Vivax lynched on D6, GG.

Hapahauli

United States9305 Posts

December 01 2020 23:20 GMT

#1526

The game is just over. And I know I'm not mafia.

Hapahauli

United States9305 Posts

December 01 2020 23:35 GMT

#1527

Well there is exactly one way the game isn’t over and that’s if Vivax or I are an Arsonist.

Hapahauli

United States9305 Posts

December 02 2020 00:03 GMT

#1530

Rayn won this game and I don’t care what anyone says

Hapahauli

United States9305 Posts

December 02 2020 00:14 GMT

#1538

On December 02 2020 09:08 iamperfection wrote:
no offense hapa but i thought you played really bad at points. That comeback post just before the lynch was atrocious. Although i do like how you referenced it like a lawyer later to try to minimize the impact.

Totally agree. I went on tilt for like 40% of this game.

Hapahauli

United States9305 Posts

December 02 2020 00:31 GMT

#1549

If anyone wants to debrief this game over some discord voice chat, let me know

Hapahauli

United States9305 Posts

December 02 2020 00:39 GMT

#1553

What was the thought behind shooting Shockeyy? It's tough to ask mafia to play a perfect game, but that felt like that really hurt mafia going into D3. Losing a mislynch target and a potential JK target for Trfel hurts.