[M][N]Oil Futures Mafia - Page 7

Vivax

21769 Posts

May 03 2020 12:34 GMT

#1090

On May 03 2020 21:30 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Shockeyy and Grackaroni both basically built a case on me then backtracked the hell out of it, so what the fuck do you do now Koshi?

I think you're wrong on Shockeyy. And also, where did he build a case on you?
Shockeyy, Jock, Slam, Chez should be the lynch pool for today imo.

Vivax

21769 Posts

May 03 2020 12:46 GMT

#1108

Koshi you called Shockeyy mafia one or two pages ago.
Also why the fudge are you so upset.

Vivax

21769 Posts

May 03 2020 12:54 GMT

#1109

Dunno, I didn't have a good night of sleep and just want a wagon going that doesn't get derailed because I might crash to bed before.

Typically, that involves the people in the thread finding the scumreads in common, voting them, and if they show up, they try to convince us why someone else is more mafia than them.

Right now it feels more like walking into an argument between a couple.

So, my opinion is that rayn is again turning a blind eye to shockeyy, for some reason. Was like that last game too. Well, Shockeyy was mafia.

Koshi on the other hand is going berserk because Kurumi was mislynched by rayn, presumably.

Is there any read you guys have in common?

Vivax

21769 Posts

May 03 2020 16:27 GMT

#1116

It feels like the type of noisy day when mafia just disappears in plain sight. Votes are too spread out and someone will come up with EoD-bs again to pick the wagon that suits them.

Need a vote from Grack and Chez to put his vote into something that makes a difference. Slam too. And GB is nowhere to see.

We can't solve the game otherwise. I don't even care who you vote for now, just vote anything that can get into a majority. It helps.

Vivax

21769 Posts

May 03 2020 17:23 GMT

#1133

On May 04 2020 02:15 ShoCkeyy wrote:
Btw idk if this matters, but I’m a mason. My brother stopped talking to me D1. So I don’t know who it is. Oh well.

What did the other guy say? Paraphrased ofc.

Vivax

21769 Posts

May 03 2020 17:43 GMT

#1143

It feels kinda odd to lynch into Jock/Shockeyy again after they were both mafia in my last game. Gambler's fallacy and all, but seriously. What are the odds of them rolling both mafia together twice in a row :|

Shockeyy, Grack is bringing up some strong points, especially the overconfidence. You just seem to be stuck in your story and don't want to look who could be scum besides Koshi imo.

If you're town and telling the truth though, the best you can do is literally just to do your best to guess who the fuck the other mason was, because if he doesn't come out now he's almost guaranteed to be mafia.

I think it's worth bringing Slam and Chez to the table too. Both were full time doing claim shenannies and I wouldn't put it past them to be just that bold as scum.

Vivax

21769 Posts

May 03 2020 18:06 GMT

#1154

I think we always kill Shockeyy here with the mason claim.

If he lied, it's one scum down.
If he told the truth and chez doesn't confirm the claim before the flip, we lynch chez.

Guaranteed to have one mafia, no?

##Unvote
##Vote Shockeyy

Vivax

21769 Posts

May 03 2020 18:15 GMT

#1157

On May 04 2020 03:12 GlowingBear wrote:

Show nested quote +

I don't get it. Why chez?

Because Shockeyy siad he thinks it's Chez?
Need to take it at face value if he doesn't give more info.

Vivax

21769 Posts

May 03 2020 18:25 GMT

#1165

On May 04 2020 03:24 Grackaroni wrote:
intimidated

It was funnier before

Vivax

21769 Posts

May 04 2020 08:30 GMT

#1249

I've seen some crazy shit this game, but none came close to saying we should read people like geript does.

Finding scum is about reading motivations mostly, then maybe arguments. In hindsight the Shockeyy lynch was a mistake for that reason. He didn't make sense as mafia either but this game he had some semblance of caring. It's most likely that type of game where mafia is posing as bad town.

I'll give some sort of testament before night ends but I'll let you know I don't believe a word of what Chez is saying nor do I believe his trolling to be benign, that would be the motivation part. His filter consists of hinting at being 10 different blue roles because maybe he smugly thinks he can find some based on reactions.

And there's a mason who didn't claim and could have maybe saved Shockeyy and Shockeyy thought it was Chez.

But sure, you can go down the 1 + 1 = 0 road tomorrow.

Vivax

21769 Posts

May 05 2020 12:16 GMT

#1428

Yo.
So, Jock, here we are.

##Vote Jock

As you might have figured out yesterday, I have some issues with some reads of yours.
Last day you had Trfel and me in your PoE, today also but now you're saying we're mutually exclusively mafia. The reasoning for that is nowhere to be seen. Adding a / is convenient when you're limiting yourself to three scumreads, I can understand that, but it's just lazy.

In theory, you are now in a spot where you can singlehandedly save town. Everyone reads your posts. What do you do? You post a list and kinda say 'meh but if I die town loses'.

If I were in your spot I'd be on a crusade right now to lynch my scumreads, I'd try to find every single scummy fucker on my wagon and call them out. But we get a meek list with poorly explained reads and somehow I'm mafia with Chez even though we're on the same page with thinking that his play this game has just been blue hunting.

Also, he's claiming a roleblock. Question to everyone: Did anyone get roleblocked N1? I went back and looked through every single post after N1 which was a massive pain in the butt and I can assure you I didn't spot any roleblock, unless Jock put one in a spoiler.

So here's my problem: Chez is basically coming at mylo, pretended not-so-subtly to be blue all game long, didn't get shot, and after N2 claims that there's a mafia roleblocker that didn't do anything N1.

To add insult to injury, Shockeyy said he was masoned with someone who was roleplaying and who he thought was Chez, and that mason is almost guaranteed to be mafia because he didn't claim to confirm Shockeyy's claim.

So Jock, I am mafia with Chez?

Vivax

21769 Posts

May 05 2020 12:30 GMT

#1429

One more alternative scenario that just eluded me and the only one in my opinion that excuses Chez roleblock claim is that scum thought Fefe was veteran for some reason and roleblocked him the same night of the kill, which I find pretty unlikely, so I didn't even think of that before.

Either way, I don't believe a word of what Chez is saying.

Vivax

21769 Posts

May 05 2020 13:22 GMT

#1431

On May 05 2020 22:00 Trfel wrote:
Vivax, do you think we should lynch Chezinu here? I take it the answer is no because of your vote, but just wanted to clarify/ask a question out of boredom and inability to sleep.

It doesn't matter to me. One to me is confirmed scum, the other is a guaranteed loss for town if he's town so we might as well lynch jock because lynching chez just buys us more time to lynch jock.

If you catch my meaning, I'd take the riskier lynch today even over confirmed scum because if Jock is town we most likely lose even if we lynch scum now.

Vivax

21769 Posts

May 05 2020 13:35 GMT

#1433

Though probably Jock will say that just confirms I'm mafia with Chez or something.

Looking at Fefe's filter again, he had Chez and Slam as scumreads along Grack and Shockeyy of which one is greenchecked and the other flipped.

That's about as many pointers you will get from Chez to him being scum, along with me being so sure of him being mafia here.

Also worth mentioning that Slam has a PoE with Jock in it but votes Trfel today which is not going to happen.
For Slam I'd like him to just look at my posts and ask him if he still thinks Chez is confirmed town.

Vivax

21769 Posts

May 05 2020 13:43 GMT

#1435

On May 05 2020 22:40 Trfel wrote:
Hm, didn't think about that

I thought Chezinu was very likely town, I guess I assumed far too quickly. Thanks for pointing that out.

I take it you consider Grackaroni confirmed town then?

There's no point considering that he isn't because of framers, godfathers, fairies and unicorns and everything else at this point in the game.

If he is, someone else can break his head over this later. But with 3 mafia left, what's the point of doubting the checked guy first? Look for the other two at least if you think Grack is scum.

Vivax

21769 Posts

May 05 2020 13:55 GMT

#1437

I believe in Koshi, he will come back to the thread with newfound righteous fury and see what I see.
Rayn kill really played a number on him, but it's winnable.

It really makes sense to me on this day if you look at the N1 kill. Medic dodge? Nah. Vet dodge? Maybe. Killed for reads? Definitely.

Vivax

21769 Posts

May 05 2020 14:34 GMT

#1444

I think too little importance is given to the factoid that Shockeyy was a mason and his partner didn't save him and the other bits of info regarding it.

Also no roleblock claim after N1.

Rayn died after claiming cop, Chezinu claims roleblocked on same night.

See where I'm going with this?

Vivax

21769 Posts

May 06 2020 07:11 GMT

#1580

Morning, game took another turn for the weird I see.

Gubby behaved really hyperbole, the way he pointed out I wanted to lynch Jock first as if it was some slam dunk reason for me to be mafia was weird. I don't quite get his plan here. He thinks Jock is town? How does screaming at me and Koshi for something help someone else get lynched? He still isn't getting his lynch, but doesn't seem to feel uncomfortable with that.

Slam just attached to that reasoning like a lamprey. Says you should always pick safe lynches but doesn't even weigh in about the merits of lynching Chez here.
Doesn't explain why me favouring Jock here makes me mafia either, adds to it that it's some ploy to lynch him after me or jock flip. I don't even know who he scumreads precisely. Reads like some mix of chez, me, trfel, koshi.

I mean first he voted Chez, so I presume he was thinking he was mafia, then GB yells something about me wanting to lynch Chez being scummy, and Slam's kneejerk reaction is not that he's getting some backup for lynching Chez, it's that I'm mafia with Chez. Scummy.

Probably the worst though are Chez vote timings. Didn't he kinda start the day by scumreading me? But to drop the vote he waits for GB to yell at me and slam to follow. When Grack comes in and shifts the wagons back to Jock, he unvotes me and votes Jock. Presumably though, these are his reads:

On May 05 2020 15:01 Chezinu wrote:
Mafia suspects:
6. Vivax
9. Koshi
12. Trfel

7. Alakaslam
8. Jockmcplop

So when it looked like I was getting lynched, he jumped at the opportunity, and when Grack foiled it, he jumped to the wagon where his top scumreads are sitting. Can anyone tell me how this isn't scummy?

Vivax

21769 Posts

May 06 2020 07:22 GMT

#1582

On May 06 2020 16:16 Trfel wrote:
@Vivax, on Chezinu, I have no answer. We can discuss it tomorrow. But we are not lynching him today, promise?

Usually I'd say depends, but looking at Jock's reads I'm feeling pretty good about my vote. I'm confident about my ability to read you and Koshi.
Still going to point this stuff out for posterity. Esp. GBs emotionality, Slam being an instant sucker for it, and Chez sentiment based voting, if I had to sum up what I think sticks out.

Vivax

21769 Posts

May 06 2020 07:41 GMT

#1588

On May 06 2020 16:31 Jockmcplop wrote:

Show nested quote +

On May 02 2020 23:17 Trfel wrote:

On May 02 2020 21:46 Jockmcplop wrote:

On May 02 2020 17:01 Trfel wrote:
Fine. I'll make a phone case. No pretty quotes or links, so you'll have to read GlowingBear's filter too.

GlowingBear

1. Scumread Koshi for misconstruing GlowingBear's play. However, note the timing, he scumread Koshi well after this all started. Despite GlowingBear not having a townread on Koshi, he got mad at Koshi and treated Koshi like town and never questioned that he could be mafia until much later, when raynpelikoneet asks him about Koshi. This doesn't feel natural at all. Town tend to be quick to call their accusers scum, especially when they feel misrepresented and ignored and all the things GlowingBear was saying.

2. Shifting reads. His scumreads shift in priority in a way that doesn't make sense. First he says Jockmcplop is mafia, and Alakaslam second. Then he says Jockmcplop and Koshi are mafia, and raynpelikoneet or Alakaslam. Then he was making a case on raynpelikoneet to defend himself (huh?). Then most recently raynpelikoneet as top mafia. It doesn't feel like he is putting much thought into his scumreads.

3. Evaluates my post on Koshi at face value. While this is objectively good, I don't see this coming from town who strongly scumreads Koshi and cares about his alignment. GlowingBear's thoughts are correct, and that's the issue here. GlowingBear doesn't use it as an opportunity to convince me to vote for Koshi or anything. Not that he should lie, or ignore my points being weak, but he could have directed me to stronger reasons to scumread Koshi. Or pointed out the strength of my remaining point instead of merely saying it was the strongest point I provided. Feels like he is just sharing his thoughts instead of actually caring about people's alignments.

Sorry if that doesn't make sense, I know it's a lot of words. There are a few other points I could make, but I figured I would just bring up these things now.

##vote GlowingBear

RE: point 3, how does my analysis of your koshi post effect your read on me?

Honestly it doesn't really, especially since GlowingBear said the same thing first.

Show nested quote +

Here's trfel on day 2.
He has me as a slight townread.
Then i question why he is scumreading GB for something that I also did, but not scumreading me for it. Seems like a strange inconsistency. Next thing I know, trfel has me as his top scumread and I haven't moved from there since.

Look at the third quote here, he clearly wants to kill GB and still has a weak townread on me.

There was no reason he switched from wanting to kill GB to wanting to kill me. GB was his main target. The only reason for the switch to me was that they decided to kill rayn and get everyone to vote me afterwards.

Its not a tunnel, its a plan. Just look at the progression. It makes no sense.

Sorry Jock, but I don't believe you'd actually believe Trfel is mafia here because of a few gaps in his reads transitions.
You could open up any townie filter, including mine, and you'd see me wanting to lynch someone more one day and then another the day after for a bazillion of possible reasons that don't mean someone is mafia.

It really only makes sense to think what you're thinking if GB + Trfel are mafia. Then Trfel would have a reason to put GB on the backburner today and to have a clear preference to lynch you instead.

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