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End of the World Party Mafia - Page 7

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Tubesock
Profile Joined April 2011
United States2726 Posts
March 16 2019 19:09 GMT
#8662
On March 17 2019 04:06 Onegu wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 17 2019 04:05 Tubesock wrote:
I think Acrofales is the only real blue left. Maybe either FF or Rels too it not both.



Pandain is blue claimed. He shot HF remember...


I know you haven’t been reading. But I cased him, so if you read you’d know I think he’s mafia day vig. I was voting him until about two minutes ago.

I believe your claim mostly when you said you wanted to do something truly baller and survive without claiming. So, I don’t have any problems with keeping you alive.
Tubesock
Profile Joined April 2011
United States2726 Posts
March 16 2019 19:13 GMT
#8666
On March 17 2019 04:10 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 17 2019 04:06 Oatsmaster wrote:
On March 17 2019 04:04 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
On March 17 2019 04:02 Oatsmaster wrote:
exo and slam are also my scumreads and they arent voting me so MZ you are just wrong man


On March 16 2019 02:00 Oatsmaster wrote:
also just wanna say
Oatsmaster (4): Acrofales, Mocsta, Jockmcplop, Onegu

wow what a lovely list of town people on my wagon.

So this wasn't sarcasm? bc that's how I read it.

obviously sarcasm but you did say that i had no scumreads outside of my wagon and wriggles.


Are you reading your own filter?

You have done nothing productive to push an exo or slam lynch. Your one contribution has been to scum read wiggles which is a very johnny come lately push. Where were you when I wanted to lynch wiggles like half a week ago? Wiggles since then has been active and clearly giving good reads, the justification of killing him based on dead townies was no longer sufficient days ago.


What good reads?
Tubesock
Profile Joined April 2011
United States2726 Posts
March 16 2019 19:21 GMT
#8671
On March 17 2019 04:11 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 17 2019 04:09 Tubesock wrote:
On March 17 2019 04:06 Onegu wrote:
On March 17 2019 04:05 Tubesock wrote:
I think Acrofales is the only real blue left. Maybe either FF or Rels too it not both.



Pandain is blue claimed. He shot HF remember...


I know you haven’t been reading. But I cased him, so if you read you’d know I think he’s mafia day vig. I was voting him until about two minutes ago.

I believe your claim mostly when you said you wanted to do something truly baller and survive without claiming. So, I don’t have any problems with keeping you alive.

Why are you more persuaded by the wiggles case than the oats case Tube?


I don’t think Wiggles has played towny. I started disliking him once he started doing the radio show, but he was getting the benefit of the doubt because we voted similarly. But recently I feel like he’s following sentiment.

I thought Oatsmaster was scum for sure for awhile. My doubts started when he didn’t kill me the day we lynched Chezinu. He had every opportunity and plenty of justifications, but he stayed on you. Then kept me in his scum lists. It weirded me out a bit, and this day cycle I think I like most his posts. Except the ones where he tells Acro to just believe him or pull his head out. But town people seem to like saying that shit too.
Tubesock
Profile Joined April 2011
United States2726 Posts
March 16 2019 19:45 GMT
#8686
On March 17 2019 04:15 Acrofales wrote:
+ Show Spoiler [ player filter length] +
Organized by # pages in filter:

LightningStrike (35)
Acrofales (30)
Oatsmaster (24)
Alakaslam (21)
Mocsta (18)
Onegu (14)
Rels (14)
Fecalfeast (11)
Pandain replaced by AMG replaced by Pandain (9 + 1)
Mr. Wiggles (9)
Jockmcplop (9)
Meapak_Ziphh (9)
darthfoley (7)
tubesock (6)
ExO_ (4)

In a game of 35 players, you can "expect" each player to contribute roughly 2.9% of the thread. Some will obviously contribute less due to being dead at the beginning, but lets use that as a rough metric.

LightningStrike = 8%
Acrofales 7%
Oatsmaster 5.5%
Alakaslam 5%
Mocsta 4%
Onegu 3%
Rels 3%
Fecalfeast 2.5%
Pandain replaced by AMG replaced by Pandain 2%
Mr. Wiggles 2%
Jockmcplop 2%
Meapak_Ziphh 2%
darthfoley 2%
tubesock 1%
ExO_ 1%

I was going to do this for all players, but don't have time. I think Oats actually had a good point to do quantitative meta analysis.

Oats is at roughly 190% of the average poster. That's quite a lot. However Oats is generally a very prolific poster, so simply saying "quantity = town" is not right. We need to compare it to other games:

Here are all the games he played since 2014 (an arbitrary cut-off chosen so I don't have to analyse any of his 500 games played in 2013, but also to filter out "old meta"):


Survivor Series Mafia Town Vanilla Endgamed Day 4 - 10 pages: 5.7%, or 80% of average       2.5 pages per day
SMB Mini Mafia Town Vanilla Lynched Day 4 - 13 pages: 10%, or 131% of average      3.25 p/d
TL Mafia LXIV: The Restart Town Vanilla Survived Day 7- 14 pages: 11%, or 200% of average      2.0 p/d
Im a cop you idiot mafia 2 Town Medic Killed Night 2 - 9 pages: 20%, or 142% of average      4.5 p/d
Shadowed Mini Mafia: The Reboot Town Vanilla Survived Day 4 - 8 pages: 8%, or 90% of average      2.0 p/d

Got bored of this. Only doing 2017 onwards:


A Simple Game of Mafia Mafia Roleblocker Lynched Day 1- 2 pages: 2%, or 28% of average      2.0 p/d
Names Are Hard 2 Town Vanilla Endgamed Day 4 - 17 pages: 13%, or 156% of average      4.25 p/d
Hurricane Shelter Mafia Town Medic Killed Night 1 - 3 pages: 4% or 52% of average      3 p/d
Heroes of the Storm Mafia Town Vanilla Lynched Day 2 - 13 pages: 17%, or 223% of average      6.5 p/d
Newbie Student Mafia XXVII Mafia Roleblocker Survived Day 5 - 12 pages: 16%, or 228% of average      2.4 p/d
Mafia Mafia Mafia Mafia Town Vanilla Killed Day 2 - 8 pages: 12%, or 190% of average      4.0 p/d
MafiacalFeast I Mafia Godfather Lynched Day 4 - 14 pages: 8%, or 110% of average      3.5 p/d

Make of this what you will, but mostly Oats is just a prolific writer. He has 2 recent mafia games at 110% of average and 228% of average. His least posts come from when he died super early (day 1, night 1) as mafia or town.

But it is maybe a good way to look at other people. Just a lot of work.

Going to cook. Lynch Oats!


Currently on day 5 he’s at 24 so that’s 4.8 pages per day. I think that’s a bit above his mafia average.
Tubesock
Profile Joined April 2011
United States2726 Posts
March 17 2019 15:59 GMT
#8955
Was a fun game. Glad I thought Pandain, wiggles and Rels were scum. But I doubt I would have lynched DF or jock. I thought I had about midpack levels of activity until Acro posted everyone’s filter length. But losing internet for 4 real life days makes it tough.

I mostly just voted HF for mayor because I thought it would have been awesome if Palmar actually had been mafia.
Tubesock
Profile Joined April 2011
United States2726 Posts
March 17 2019 17:56 GMT
#8984
On March 18 2019 02:43 darthfoley wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 12 2019 23:00 Tubesock wrote:
Acrofales - confirmed
Sicklucker
-he picked up why Chez is scum and FF is town
Fecalfeast
- bombing Chez is brilliant. I believe his claim and he’s the only hatter.
Onegu
- feels plus I like his mechanical analysis
LightningStrike
- Trust of the dead, too active for mafia LS
Vivax
- he’s alive because he’s useful for mafia, he does not promote town circles.

Alakaslam
- feels. I used to study Slam. This isn’t like any Slam I’ve ever seen. But feels.
Grackaroni
- he had a few posts I thought were spot on.
Mocsta
- probably should be null. Hmm

Jockmcplop
Meapak_ziph
Mr. Wiggles - I think he could be town BUT OMGUS, he half assed went after LS (LS rule), and most the dead wanted his lynch. Including Ticktock.
Darthfoley - POE mostly
Rels- mafia need a mason to find Traitor, Rsoultin said scum with good reason, and Ticktock, plus I think 8 blues is a bit much.

Pandain
- I’ll never believe that a town day vig would make this post + Show Spoiler [call 4 HF vig] +

On March 08 2019 18:43 Pandain wrote:
Hey everyone. For those who don't know me, I'm pretty sure it's pretty obvious to tell when I'm town or not when I'm actually playing. Expect to see a hell of a lot more activity, and actually I was pretty up to date with the whole part of day 2 when I asked Kita to replace after I saw AMG was similarly overwhelmed like me the first day.

I won't dwell on the past too much, but Holyflare 100% needs to be vigi'd tonight. It was remarkable watching the last day.

HF talk has already spammed the thread and later tonight I'm going to be looking into others, but I want to emphasize two points.

1. Fake claimed for no town reason . I don't care about fake claims in general ,I used to do it all the time. However, when Town does it it's because they have a reason to (and holyflare already established he did not just do it for the "Lolz".) There was no reason to fake-claim, and honestly I'm not sure about how it benefits mafia but it sure as hell makes no sense from a town perspective. Also can we just kill people who outright lie for no reason?

2. Furthermore, HF dying gives a huge amount of information. If he's mafia, I actually think we can start wrapping up the game because HF has been at the center of the thread and voting thread for both days. If he actually does just turn out to be a balls-out crazy town, I think it's very safe to say a good amount of mafia probably voted for him after he made his intentions clear to vote Palmar. Either way, town is in a good position.

However, I am pleading for a vigilante to end the job. The information best helps us if we know it at the start of the day cycle.

I'm actually not even certain I would support a Holyflare day 3 lynch.

Also just FYI BC and Ace need to die with fire if either of them live to day four.

It’s so incredibly overexplainy for someone who is going to shoot Holyflare.

Oatsmaster
- He townread then scumread Mr. Wiggles before this exchange + Show Spoiler [The Tube Trap] +
On March 08 2019 04:42 Tubesock wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 08 2019 04:10 Oatsmaster wrote:
Mafia boi

If wriggles does the same thing as you in that his case on you can be applied to him, and you are town, doesn’t that mean he’s also town? How does it mean he’s mafia


I never scumread him. So, it’s hilarious you are saying I’m scum for this, but apparently Wiggles is somehow town for doing exactly that. Take a look at my two posts:

Show nested quote +
On March 06 2019 18:52 Tubesock wrote:
Wiggles, you’ve been scumming me since before I even scummed Trfel. Yet you’ve never voted me. Why not? You seem pretty convinced, you have some others who agree. Think about what you say because I’m going to have great satisfaction copy and pasting things from your case on me in my defense.


Then

Show nested quote +
On March 06 2019 21:47 Tubesock wrote:
Wiggles is funny to me. I feel like I can just take his case on me, and find/replace his name for mine and submit it with equal fervor. Plus we voted on both wagons so we can’t be too far off.


Why do you think i wrote the big and bold?? It’s a fucking trap and you fell right into it.

Oatsmaster didn’t bother to read anything more than the single post and looking for “reads” at the shallowest of levels. You went straight to Tube is mafia because of this “slip” you found. Yet you had no idea it was a trap and you fell into it!!!

This action on your part is representative of your entire game. You are mafia.

Oatsmaster, who waffles on Mr. Wiggles, immediately takes Wiggles word without hesitation or investigating the truthfulness of either mine or Wiggles filter and says I’m scum. This of course was based on a flat lie that Oatsmaster didn’t bother at all to investigate. He shouldn’t have trusted Wiggles word as he didn’t show any indication that he strongly townread Wiggles. A town always distrusts, and when I confronted Oats, he was just “oh I’m wrong, whoops” and then just did whatever he was doing. I would think town would question Wiggles a bit after that.

Chezinu
- there’s four scenarios concerning the Great FF/Chezinu Mad Hatter Debate of 2019.
      1)Both are Mafia. This would be so goddamn genius. Lynch one they flip mafia and the other is confirmed town with 0% chance of being questioned for not being NK’d. Having a backup Cop flip day one and HF going on how this is a themed game I can see a world where Chez and FF think up this shit. Especially if Sicklucker is mafia also. They’re all crafty. But I think it is unnecessary and considering there’s only two dead mafia, I think it’s unlikely. But yolo end of era plays. HF tried one.
      2) Fecalfeast/Chezinu- a one for one would be a complete waste. Almost zero chance.
      3) both town- possible. Mafia could hold the shot on FF hoping they could mlynch Chezinu, and then shoot FF if he places a bomb on a mafia friendly target the next night. Seems needlessly risky for two free dead towns.
      4)FecalfeastCezinu- mafia would never shoot in this instance unless for some crazy bad reason they thought FF was lying about his bomb. I think this is by far the most likely situation. My vote will not waver from Chezinu.


I haven’t had internet since Thursday. Apologies. This Thursday and Friday I probably won’t have it again. There were technical difficulties at work.

I’m caught up, going to be rereading stuff. I’ll be here for several hours.


One of the most correct posts in the game


Thanks! I really need to work on being town readable though. I can’t seem to stay active and even then my active is like still lurker.
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