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On March 12 2019 04:59 Pandain wrote:
Fuck busy again tonight. Can't do a last post but if I die slam and onegu need to be next lynches. Grack I saw your post but meta tells like that are shit compared to actual analyses. Any good player can change their meta, and honestly people can't read meta for shit.
Slam has two huge scum tells. He voted for HF and then later pushed HF for lynching palmar(extremely hypocritical and makes sense from mafia perspective). And he also, despite being very active most times, was completely "gone" during the sentinel lynch, and "convienantly" just showed up five minutes after. Yeah right. Lynch this guy.
Onegu has just been scummy this whole game, pushing me for absolutely no reason (like actually none. His reason was because of a misunderstanding of acros role later shown to he false. But onegu never backtracked. And he too convienantly afked during sentinel lynch. Also I can't do analysis because g2g but his whole filter is pretty bad.
If ace ever lives past night 4 he's 100% scum.
Acro is town I think. Don't agree with aces analysis at all. It's not anti town mechanic because he wasn't forced to shoot anyone. This is a good point actually and it may be the balance to the traitor insertion.
Yeah tubesock/df/slam/onegu should be the lynch options today.
No need to challenge FF/chez yet with those 4.
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So.. mafia had 3 KP
or town/3P KP for 1?
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Even reading TS filter, is like a guy floating through
mainly commenting on theory speculation stuff; no concrete direction.
Cheesy town read on BH too.
Its a good filter in the sense that, its hard to pinpoint whats precisely scummy without reading it in context of the game events at the time.
i.e. its TOO CLEAN. Im definitely OK with this lynch.
As an aside, if hes scum, i think it clears Jock + Oats as town. Mainly with how he interacts about them to the thread.
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On March 12 2019 09:06 Fecalfeast wrote:
i would sheep mocsta to TS but only mocsta why thank you
cant tell if you being sarcastic though
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On March 12 2019 11:42 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
Pandain not dead after his shot is scummy as fuck to me. Same with Acro. Why was Ace killed ahead of them? There was also plenty of people willing to kill him today. I feel like he was right about something the rest of the thread hadn't bought into so i gotta reread his filter. I was wondering who was going to use this to push agenda
hmmm
MZ gets scum points
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On March 12 2019 12:43 LightningStrike wrote:
The TT kill makes me wonder if Mafia is trying to leave WIFOM at max levels if both MZ and Wiggles are town here. He wasn't scumread by anyone really but he didn't have much presence either. Hmmm. yeah, just annoying really.
when i have done kills like that, I took out low hanging-fruit because I wanted keep infighting at play.
Im a bit confused then, cos who are they expecting to infight?
The only other thing that makes sense to me is they seeking to keep discussion around the amoutn of blue claims.
So FF/Chez/Acro/Rels/Pandain
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On March 12 2019 15:44 Jockmcplop wrote:
Hi everyone. I should be back and posting more today. My brain is no longer a hazy fog of dense wet sadness.
Can someone explain to me why the NKs are weird this time? I'm not quote following the logic. Thanks
Gamestate, tumbleweed makes sense as confirmed town.
Ace and ticktock are the weird ones, because ticktock was a number with low pull; and ace was potentially lynchable. He did get 7 votes after all.
Why ace > Rels for example.
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Hi Grack,
Three points for you:
(1) I already addressed all of HF points, thats the best that case will get from me.
(2) HF didnt scum read me when he died.
(3) Im sorry for lying to you: I said you were town I would read your filter and I never did.
My vote is sticking on tubesock.
As a sidenote, Im pretty disappointed with myself this game.
In the sense, I know I need to re-read because my context for the game unfolding is completely skewed. Too much has happened and its been over a week now.
I just cant push myself to do it. The page count is so daunting, its just easier for me to be present here in the live thread. But its a waste of time for all of us.
Rant over. Maybe I will read Day1 today. I never actually read the first 50 or so pages.
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Sorry if this has been covered, but how do we explain 3KP on N3?
2 scummers dead = 1KP reduction
N1 = Cop, Vet, VT
Claims: Nil
Scum KP: Max (3 or 4)
Option 1 = 4KP (Scum) - 2shots on Iamp
Option 2 = 3KP (Scum) - RB on iamp
Option 3 = 3KP (Scum) + 1KP (3P) - Scum + 3P shoot iamp
[b]N2 = VT, VT, VT, VT, RB[b/]
Claims: Lurker Vig, Delayed Vig
Scum KP: Max (3 or 4)
Option 1 = 3KP (Scum) + 1KP (Lurker Vig) + 1KP (Delayed Vig)
Option 2 = 4KP (Scum) + 1KP (Delayed Vig)
Option 3 = 3KP (Scum) + 1KP (Delayed Vig) + 1KP (3P)
D3 = VT
Claims: Dayvig
N3 = Ace, Vig, VT
Scum KP: Max -1 (2 or 3)
Claims: Nil
Option 1 = 3KP (Scum)
Option 2 = 2KP Scum) + 1KP (3P)
Analysing N3
If option 1 applies (3KP), then, scum had 4KP on N1 + N2; OR a 3P is in play. No matter what, Acro lurker vig claim is false.
If option 2 applies (2KP), then scum had 3KP on N1 + N2 AND a 3P is in play. No matter what, Acro lurker vig claim is false.
???!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!!?!??
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totally photoshopped br0ski
p.s. you look so diff to what i imagined lol. but im not going to go there.
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less comments on DF and more on my NK post
Did I fuck something up? Or did acro fuck something up?
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On March 13 2019 08:53 Vivax wrote:Show nested quote +On March 13 2019 08:47 Mocsta wrote:
less comments on DF and more on my NK post
Did I fuck something up? Or did acro fuck something up? First of all I think that traitor doesn't count towards total KP until recruited cause that'd be unfair towards scum. Then I don't think it's that unlikely for town to have 4 KP. Serial killer is a possibility but then I think he might have held his shot tonight for the sake of not letting that possibility seem likely. Thanks for responding.
There is some gross assumptions here though
(1) That traitor is "recruited". I get the mason link, but then we should automatically be lynching Rels, no?
(2) None of the TLMafia Traitor role pm I looked at required recruitment
(3) 3P held his shot is also an assumption. Im not used to that being a possibility. Have you come across this on TL?
I can consider a world where traitor doesnt count towards KP. So in that world, if scum team is uneven (i.e 7) then the BC flip would not alter KP.
This is weird though because traitor takes it up to 8. Which seems too muich -> maybe that gives viability towards extra town KP though?
A scum team of 5 + traitor seems a bit small too?
Seems a bit loose for 8 scum + heaps of town blue.. Even if one last hurrah???
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On March 13 2019 08:58 Fecalfeast wrote:
I know I townread mocsta and stuff but why does that read to me like he's scum who doesn't understand the KP either and wants to fish out more blue claims? I dunno. you should explore that thought with a psychologist. pretty sick progressino 
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On March 13 2019 09:01 Fecalfeast wrote:
I rescind my previous statement and instead will say
Setuo speculation in a game already deemed abnormal by the majority of players who care about that sort of thing is a fruitless endeavor as we could very well be in a legitimate bastard game and not even know it I dont get why you are writing this off so blatantly.
There is a clear out n out lie or missing puzzle piece.
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On March 13 2019 09:03 LightningStrike wrote:
there 19 people left alive so unless we got 1 3rd party and about 4-5 maybe 6 mafia's left then than 3 kp total does make some sense. That just a stab trying to make sense of the kp. But the point is how Acro fits in with the KP??
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On March 13 2019 09:07 Fecalfeast wrote:Show nested quote +On March 13 2019 09:05 Mocsta wrote:On March 13 2019 09:01 Fecalfeast wrote:
I rescind my previous statement and instead will say
Setuo speculation in a game already deemed abnormal by the majority of players who care about that sort of thing is a fruitless endeavor as we could very well be in a legitimate bastard game and not even know it I dont get why you are writing this off so blatantly. There is a clear out n out lie or missing puzzle piece. Maybe I misunderstand your case. I will reread it because I don't see any lies that aren't only made to be lies based on speculation about the setup of the game. Fine,
I will do a deeper math exploration in excel then.
I will look into the case vivax proposed, that only BC counted as a lynch and did not impact KP.
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Not as helpful as I had imagined as it does allow for more possibilities than i suspected.
Firstly, I tried to be as thorough as I could with options however, I refuse to analyse a world where scum start with 2KP.
I rarely see KP rounded UP, but it is included for the sake of discussion.
I also think the traitor leads to two distinct outcomes.
(1) Traitor always counts towards scum KP -> Mason could be town
(2) Traitor recruited before adding to scum KP -> Mason must be scum
As I mentioned to Vivax, I havent seen an active recruitment of traitor before, so i think this is unlikely, but is included for sake of discussion.
In short:
The game doesnt make sense if scum start with 4KP; unless there is missing KP claim.(e.g. hatter bomb)
Otherwise, the game had to play out as 2 shots on iamp, and scum + lurker vig or 3P to both shoot damdred -> highly unlikely.
In the world with scum starting with 3KP
There are a few options that work, pending round up, round down, 3P, no 3P.
In my mind, KP is normally rounded down and the traitor would count to scum KP. Thats just what I would expect from a balance point of view as an observer. Nothing to do with how the game has planned out.
In that scenario, the most likely arrangement is: That a 3P exists OR there is another batch of missing KP (e.g. a second hatter bomb)
![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/OwzyYnk.jpg)
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Hi Vivax,
PoE could also be scum qt reference lol
welcome to the wagon of truth
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EPT
