|
On March 26 2018 07:16 Mocsta wrote:
rsoultin, i hate to muddy waters, but i dont understand the rayn hard town read either - for the drunken posting.
if anything thats a scum indicator (i.e. getting mad that town are unfoiling the mafia plans).. at least it reminded me of when i angry posted, last.
all i mean is, i would consider rayn a lynch option for the final slot.
I get that. Part of it is tonally he just has felt very town to me all game. Pushing after things he finds inconsistent, but still willing to listen. My waffle was he absolutely knows how I read him, and has fooled me before with it. Though you're right that in this game even if Koshi and (maybe?) Palmar were scum, there's still a lot of strong town players who don't read him that way, so it's probably still a stretch that he'd make the effort to go that distance just for me.
(For frame of reference, I used to call him out as scum quite early and quite accurately because he'd just scream his head off without trying to involve people and also get reads off of them based on what he was seeing, and then he adjusted and stopped being so obvious ;o;)
But his angry post was deeply personal. If you reread it closely, his primary issue was that I neither had him in my list of four scummers, or the town leader circle I was building. It was hurt pride. And it's also basically the crux of why he so very frequently scumreads me when we're both town (i.e. I say something that he thinks I can't possibly believe, though usually it's disagreeing with his reasoning somewhere). There's just absolutely no reason for his pride to be hurt if he's scum. Yay, he fooled me! Right? Between that and his tone all game, I just can't see him being anything but town here.
|
You can of course argue that he's faking the hurt pride, but I don't think it would even cross his mind if he were scum? To go, oh, I'd be offended by this if I were town, better scumread Tina 100%!
|
#2981/82
if im around night 3 I will re-read the rayn/rsoultin exchange.
for now, i dont understand the hurt pride argument; given he extended df observation from beta to super-beta.
even if its in wit, its still a subconscious acceptance.
with that in mind, i dont see congruence to get upset at rsoultin for the above re: town leadership.
If there was anger I could accept, it woudl be for not being part of the clear town circle, only.
|
I suppose one caveat against what i commented with the rational for drunken posting.
i was frustrated because I setup this master plan that required like 2-3 days to execute.
So the unfoil pissed me off.
However, in rayn case, the game is almost, if not over - so.. why get frustrated at that.
hmmm, yes, im ok with town rayn.
|
On March 26 2018 07:35 Mocsta wrote:
I suppose one caveat against what i commented with the rational for drunken posting.
i was frustrated because I setup this master plan that required like 2-3 days to execute.
So the unfoil pissed me off.
However, in rayn case, the game is almost, if not over - so.. why get frustrated at that.
hmmm, yes, im ok with town rayn.
Idk I read it more as a "fuck df" rant more than anything. NAI imo
|
Primary Lynches
Koshi
MoosyDoosy
Secondary Lynches
Palmar
Fecalfeast
Evaluate with whose left @ LYLO
disformation
Coagulation
Unlynchables
Mocsta
rsoultin
raynpelikoneet
darthfoley
Tictock
So if with no KP block.
I predict: rsoultin, Mocsta, Tictock will be shot
That leaves the game as potentially 4-4 LYLO. sigh...
Koshi down is 4-3, but mafia have 2 KP and game is over.
There must be a KP block available - I hope to god its not the vet.
SO HERES THE PLAN
Essentially, if a medic does not claim Day3, town may as well concede; as scum will NEVER shoot disfo.
If medic does claim, disfo gets lynched over Koshi.
|
My tinfoil is glimmering.
Why don’t you think you will be shot Mocsta?
|
On March 26 2018 07:43 Tictock wrote:
My tinfoil is glimmering.
Why don’t you think you will be shot Mocsta? i dont understand the false premise of the question at hand?
|
Mafia had better shoot me though.
I will make their lives as difficult as I can if I am left alive.
|
well.. i see the issue with that plan
medic will keep the game going longer. dont want to out for the sake of it.
but i dont personally want to go through day3 to then just lose either.
ffs.
meh
just keep it in mind.
|
On March 26 2018 07:44 Mocsta wrote:Show nested quote +On March 26 2018 07:43 Tictock wrote:
My tinfoil is glimmering.
Why don’t you think you will be shot Mocsta? i dont understand the false premise of the question at hand?
Whoops, sorry I misread. Didn’t see you lost yourself.
|
I actually managed to stay up! My body is going to hate me tomorrow when we wake up at 5:30 ;o;
And yeah, I get that the rayn read is hugely meta-based and on top of that personal, but, you know, I'm me lol >< I don't have the gift of believing one thing and pushing that read with different (more persuadable) reasoning.
Is persuadable a word?
|
Anyways,
the more I think about it.
disfo is scum.
I really dont see how we have 4 blue roles. and I am certain scum would never withhold KP on Night 1 and disfo certainly was not shot to test the vest.
So Day3 lynch = Disfo
Day4 lynch = Koshi
Day 5 lynch = Moosy
[b]I believe we need 2 KP blocks to keep this game going if remaining lynches are successful; which will be a big ask.
As I think 3 mafia will need to be lynch before KP drops to 1....
Final mafia is dependent on who is still standing.
|
Meh I am sticking with Rayn probably just being Town as well.
I too can see the drunken posts come from scum!Rayn, but Occam’s razor and all. Maybe I will review later, but I agree with Rsoul that overall Rayn has felt like Town all game and it is mainly fear and paranoia that get me to consider him scum.
|
On March 26 2018 07:51 Mocsta wrote:
Anyways,
the more I think about it.
disfo is scum.
I really dont see how we have 4 blue roles. and I am certain scum would never withhold KP on Night 1 and disfo certainly was not shot to test the vest.
So Day3 lynch = Disfo
Day4 lynch = Koshi
Day 5 lynch = Moosy
[b]I believe we need 2 KP blocks to keep this game going if remaining lynches are successful; which will be a big ask.
As I think 3 mafia will need to be lynch before KP drops to 1....
Final mafia is dependent on who is still standing.
I disagree Koshi first. Dis hasn’t sold me on being Town but it is a very real possibility.
|
|
|
On March 26 2018 07:51 Mocsta wrote:
Anyways,
the more I think about it.
disfo is scum.
I really dont see how we have 4 blue roles. and I am certain scum would never withhold KP on Night 1 and disfo certainly was not shot to test the vest.
So Day3 lynch = Disfo
Day4 lynch = Koshi
Day 5 lynch = Moosy
[b]I believe we need 2 KP blocks to keep this game going if remaining lynches are successful; which will be a big ask.
As I think 3 mafia will need to be lynch before KP drops to 1....
Final mafia is dependent on who is still standing.
Just have to hope extra kp was a one-shot?
|
wait a sec.
thats dumb.
so if theres 5 mafia, it will take 3 dead mafia to reduce to 1KP
4 mafia is 2 dead mafia.
wait. ignore that shit
dont have enough time to redo numbers, but its all wrong.
ohh interesting.. if there is 4mafia (like i said prior).. the night1 kills was spot on. 2 + 1 from vig.
thats only saving grace for this game.
sigh.. fuck my life.
all pointless and confusing spiel.
/IGNORE.
|
If I Die Before I Wake
Koshi 100% scum. All you need to see that is reading his posts post-flip. Too happy about players getting themselves modkilled, the comment about Slam, etc. Add to that his complete lack of influence on the game.
*Palmar 98% scum. I lied  The way he delurked on weekend to attack n00bking both when NK first brought up the contradiction in his perception of blue claims, and when NK claimed blue, is not only opportunistic but counter to how Palmar normally plays weekends as town. Which is to say, he doesn't. Moreover, it was a classic strawman argument that he made. Namely, that he was saying he didn't push it as he should in the last game so NK was lying. But obviously he 1) did push it with just a few minutes left to go and 2) if he saw it as a mistake he's more likely to try to get such blue claims lynched harder in the future. A strawman argument, given Palmar, doesn't make him scum normally but I'd say it almost certainly does when he makes it seriously. If I get nk'd tonight, he's also probably the reason. Though, to be fair, I probably was going to get NK'd regardless of the scum team. Also, his reactions after the flips were only slightly better than koshi's.
(sorry, rayn. I did find your point plausible, I just don't think he thinks people are going to go digging up old games to see if his approach to the game on that specific point line up. And I actually think it makes disfo a bit more likely to be scum, as well)
Moosy 90% scum. I think there's an eentsy beentsy chance I'm just expecting too much of him. I think he's hoping to bank on Rayn's read and a general perception that he's just a trolly, useless player. To me, he never has been. And because I don't want to call him useless or anything if I happen to be wrong here, I'm just going to say this would have to be a very off game for him given the Moosy I remember, to reduce his game post flips to blind associations everywhere and little interaction with other players.
disformation 60% scum. Wasn't lying about saying fuck it regarding filters. So this is more feels and intuition based off his play in vendee where he was pretty on the ball and off doing whatever he wanted and dumping analysis into the thread. Here it's less like he's poking into things and finding things that interest him, but rather being led by the nose where to sniff. I don't mind waffling when I can see people have points in favor and points against that they want to express to show what's making them unsure. With him, though, there's just too many posts where he talks without really saying anything, like his read on Moosy. That's a different kind of waffle. Caveat is yeah, I'm basing this off two games and confirming he can be active as fuck as scum.
FF 55% town. Putting him at a slight townread because of how he interacted with me at EoD 2. It just seemed very open and honest, like a puppy ;o; This is obviously a very weak read and if I'm wrong on anyone it's probably him and one of disfo/moosy (more likely disfo than moosy).
DF, TT, rayn and Mocsta are always town here (even though I'd love for Mocsta to be our friendly neighborhood SK ;o;). You can of course disagree. But I still stand by my scum probably has next to no motivation to play when the game could probably literally end tonight. Rayn's outburst I don't think ever comes from scum for reasons I've already said.
Coag...if this is the game man, kudos?
|
#2997 yeah pretty much
seems almost every permutation with no save is an auto-loss for town
can only win by sheer luck at this point.
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
