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Newbie Student Mafia XXIII - Page 62

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Calix
Profile Joined August 2016
3379 Posts
October 01 2016 20:33 GMT
#1221
I don't follow your town-read on Xatalos. Care to explain there?
Stutters695
Profile Joined July 2012
2610 Posts
October 01 2016 20:34 GMT
#1222
On September 26 2016 23:53 Stutters695 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 26 2016 23:47 ptmc wrote:
On September 26 2016 23:47 Stutters695 wrote:
Just woke up. You guys aren't lynching me d2 lol.

why not?


1) I'm town

2) if I was scum and Luna said that, I would have slapped some rockets on and bussed him straight to the moon.

3) I don't get mislynched unless I'm straight afk essentially.

Just saying
Stutters695
Profile Joined July 2012
2610 Posts
October 01 2016 20:40 GMT
#1223
On October 02 2016 05:33 Calix wrote:
I don't follow your town-read on Xatalos. Care to explain there?

I'm not going to quote everything because 12pg filterand I'm dead anyway but:

12pg filter
His initial reactions at the start to me were incredibly town
Outside of his scunteam speculation post, I've been able to follow his reasoning throughout the game. Pick a random page and I'd bet it stands out as town.
Calix
Profile Joined August 2016
3379 Posts
October 01 2016 20:44 GMT
#1224
The bulk of your defense is self-meta which is flawed because you are aware of said meta.

Activity is not alignment-indicative.

Why would you being dead mean you put less effort in? If I was in your shoes then I would imagine that I'd be putting in more effort because I wouldn't ever have to after today.
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
October 01 2016 20:51 GMT
#1225
I guess now is the time to share my thoughts on stutters. More on "why" later.

First of all, I don't really know his meta/playstyle. Just looking at this game, though, there are a couple of things which made me lean town on him initially:

1) Careless posting style - the way he entered the thread was sure to attract attention, and not in a positive way - attention that would put him under the spotlight and make it harder for him to push any sort of scum agenda freely. When I imagine a typical scum opening post, it would be safe and blend in with the surroundings. The way stutters entered the game was nothing like that.

2) General lack of care for what others thought of him - I don't think I saw one post from him that felt like he was "posting for the sake of posting / looking better". His posts were a bit controversial all around during D1.

3) Of course, Lunatic's flip made stutters look quite a bit better as well. It would be extremely stupid for scum (Lunatic) to just casually townread his teammate for no good reason. After all, scum would want to distance themselves from each other appearance-wise, while perhaps subtly helping each other through their actions. But what Lunatic did achieved neither - it just put pressure/attention on them both and didn't help stutters in any way either. Occam's razor says it should be just scum giving a townread on some townie to blend in and perhaps pocket said townie.

Now we get to the "secret" part. Unfortunately, I'm far less confident in this theory now than I was earlier today. In any case, here it is.

First of all, this post made me think of something:

On September 27 2016 00:01 Stutters695 wrote:
Here's what's going to happen. I'm going to type some stuff up. Usually I would wait until EoD, but I work before then so I'll just throw it out. You guys will be like "wow, he does things and they make some sense, this dude is probably town." Just know you're cutting into my Overwatch time and that makes me sad.

I have 100% confidence I won't be lynched.


Who would have the most confidence in not being lynched? A blue player of course. Perhaps a VT/scum with some huge confidence, but it didn't seem like stutters was capable of that sort of extreme feats to clear himself just through his play. Why even say this as VT or especially scum? It would just put more pressure on himself to perform and make things harder for himself in the following days. The only time I've said something like this, I've been blue (2 times I've said a similar line AFAIK and I was blue both times). I'm pretty sure I've also seen another player saying this as blue. A situation where a scum said this doesn't come to my mind.

Moving on...

Considering stutters' play as a whole, he seemed to follow the thread very closely (even pointing out short sentences in long posts such as the Jealous thing), but didn't explain his thoughts too much. From scum, I would expect the opposite (not being very interested in what's actually happening but trying to make a good appearance). Whereas for blue play, it would make absolute sense (being extremely interested in small details going on in the game, but not daring to say much in order to avoid being shot).

Granted, stutters seems to have been AFK for quite a while in between, but the times he was actively reading the thread he didn't post very much either.

So, why reveal all this now? Because the whole theory largely came crumbling down after he said this:

On October 02 2016 05:01 Stutters695 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 02 2016 04:58 Xatalos wrote:
On October 02 2016 04:30 Stutters695 wrote:
I'm town guys. I truly am sorry for not being more active.

Anyway, once I flip town:

Lynch Scott. Last scum is hiding somewhere between Skynx, ptmc, TT and jealous. I'll try to read them before I get lynched.

Don't lynch Xata tomorrow.

##vote: scott31337


Please start shooting townie rainbows all over me to A) prevent me from having to do something possibly stupid if you're town and especially to B) make sure you're actually town and I'm not doing something truly terrible. If you can do that, that would be the absolute best scenario.


Just don't lol. It's ok if I die.


A blue would never say this. At least I would never say it as blue. So... He's either VT/scum or in an extremely WIFOMy mood. But I think VT is more likely since scum would have little motivation to say something like this either. Like... what would scum have to lose by having me say something "damaging for town"? It just makes no sense to reject that development. For all he knows, I might have been preparing to say a green-check on him or something (let's consider the scenario where he was Godfather and I was saying that I had "secret evidence" of him being town - who the hell scum would reject me saying it out loud in that situation?). So, as scum, it would be extremely foolish to make that post.

That's it. He's probably not blue after all, but more likely town than scum still.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
October 01 2016 20:54 GMT
#1226
Well, I'd say it's at least pretty much impossible for him to be a GF.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Stutters695
Profile Joined July 2012
2610 Posts
October 01 2016 20:55 GMT
#1227
On October 02 2016 05:44 Calix wrote:
The bulk of your defense is self-meta which is flawed because you are aware of said meta.

Activity is not alignment-indicative.

Why would you being dead mean you put less effort in? If I was in your shoes then I would imagine that I'd be putting in more effort because I wouldn't ever have to after today.

Because there isn't enough time. My argument is, I'm not this bad, just inactive. Obviously it's not a great point, but what can you do.
Calix
Profile Joined August 2016
3379 Posts
October 01 2016 20:56 GMT
#1228
Holy shit, an actual contribution from Xatalos.

Excuse me for a moment, I need to lie down.
Tictock
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United States6052 Posts
October 01 2016 20:57 GMT
#1229
Yea ok Xat, you thought he was a blue...

[image loading]

+ Show Spoiler +
I feel like i heard that one before...





On September 24 2016 07:46 Stutters695 wrote:
I'm here and not scum. How disappointing.

Anyway, as it stands I'd be all for a d1 Xata lynch. Pretty sure he's fooled me like the last 3 times he's been mafia and that's no good.



Tell me more about these amazing meta-reads.
I can take that responsibility.
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
October 01 2016 21:00 GMT
#1230
I'd say the argument following his "it's ok for me to die" post is stronger than the blue theory though.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Stutters695
Profile Joined July 2012
2610 Posts
October 01 2016 21:01 GMT
#1231
Its not a meta read, just look at his filter lol.
Calix
Profile Joined August 2016
3379 Posts
October 01 2016 21:03 GMT
#1232
Can we let the meta thing die? That Xat/ Stutters comment has been inflated to legendary proportions.

Xatalos' post boils down to tone, attitude and associations which aren't terrible reasons actually, but the first half of that post didn't need to be hidden.

That TPR part is literally Lunatic 2.0. At least this time, I can see why someone would conclude that he's a TPR from his posts although I think that's just Stutters being cocky. I think Rels came to a similar conclusion re: Stutters being a TPR.
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
October 01 2016 21:07 GMT
#1233
On October 02 2016 06:03 Calix wrote:
Can we let the meta thing die? That Xat/ Stutters comment has been inflated to legendary proportions.

Xatalos' post boils down to tone, attitude and associations which aren't terrible reasons actually, but the first half of that post didn't need to be hidden.

That TPR part is literally Lunatic 2.0. At least this time, I can see why someone would conclude that he's a TPR from his posts although I think that's just Stutters being cocky. I think Rels came to a similar conclusion re: Stutters being a TPR.


The earlier part of my post had been already written in my filter, maybe not as neatly collected.

"Cocky" doesn't really explain the rest apart from his "I'll never be lynched" moment.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Calix
Profile Joined August 2016
3379 Posts
October 01 2016 21:09 GMT
#1234
His whole "I'd never be this bad as scum" shtick (which his 'never getting lynched today' comment fits into) is what I mean there.
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
October 01 2016 21:13 GMT
#1235
Hmmmmmmm...... Maybe you have a point. There's still the rest of the "blue case" remaining though.

It's in the past regardless since he's almost certainly not a blue after all.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Stutters695
Profile Joined July 2012
2610 Posts
October 01 2016 21:14 GMT
#1236
At this point if I was a blue I would have claimed it to not get lynched or at least trade with the cc.
Stutters695
Profile Joined July 2012
2610 Posts
October 01 2016 21:15 GMT
#1237
Regardless I'm going in to work so I might not be back before flip. GG, sorry I couldn't help more.
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
October 01 2016 21:18 GMT
#1238
On October 02 2016 06:14 Stutters695 wrote:
At this point if I was a blue I would have claimed it to not get lynched or at least trade with the cc.


Yeah, that's true too. I thought you might be hiding it until closer to deadline earlier today, but now it would have certainly been the time to claim.

(by the way, I once refused to claim as Cop as the leading wagon until there was only 30min until lynch - the funny thing is, I was just getting ready to claim when one of the scumsters slipped - bagging us a scum lynch without me having to claim!)
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
October 01 2016 21:20 GMT
#1239
Calix, think about it. Read my earlier post with clear thoughts. Isn't it quite a bit more likely that scott is scum here? There's still time to change the result.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Calix
Profile Joined August 2016
3379 Posts
October 01 2016 21:21 GMT
#1240
What makes you think Scott > Stutters?
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